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I would not write Somersby off yet either. It does appear that unless he comes good here he will be set so see out the rest of his career over 3m in lesser company if he is to win more races.
Maybe he turns up in the Lexus next year. How would he fair in the mud?
I think Kauto is key to this race. There are two theories on Kauto.
1. He is an ageing superstar who is now inconsistent and on the decline. He was specially trained up for a last hurrah in the Betfair Chase but won’t be able to repeat that performance against a fitter Long Run.
2. He didn’t run to form last year because of niggling health problems which have now resolved themselves. This view is supported by the bleed in the King George in Jan, Nicholls’ comment that he had breathing problems that have now gone, and his spectacular victory in the Betfair Chase. Therefore he is almost as good as he was two years ago.
Theory 1 suggests odds of about 10-1. Theory 2 suggests odds of about 2-1. I confess I don’t know which theory is correct.
The more i think about this, the more i’m convinced Long Run has it sewn up….but there’s that nagging doubt about the jockey.
Not convinced Master Minded will stay, as long as it’s a truly run three miles.
as re kauto, what sticks in my mind is the gold cup last year. he was trained to the minute, jumped beautifully, came there to win his race but was beaten fair and square by long run. (not to mention denman as well)
it just seemed to me the gears that were once there, the explosive turn of foot, was no longer there anymore. probably because all the battles he’s been in have taken their toll. at haydock he didnt really need a change of gear because he was always in the lead and just jumped them into submission, but on the likely good ground at kempton I think he’ll get found out by a younger horse.
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The ‘explosive turn of foot’ diminishes with age, and there’s little doubt Kauto will have to be ridden every bit as aggressively as he was at Haydock to accomodate. However (Long Run apart), he will be meeting better and fitter horses here, the majority ridden to outspeed him, rather than outjump him as was the case in the Betfair, and I wouldn’t have him on my mind to win it.
Would be delighted if he proved me wrong, but from a purely betting point of view,I wouldn’t go near him.Kauto Star didn’t need to be at his best to win the Betfair and probably on the downgrade. But he was the best since Arkle and is still top class.
If Long Run jumps well he’ll probably win. King George and Gold Cup wins better than Kauto’s last time out win. But will Long Run jump well? Kauto is bound to go on the attack again, at least after letting Golan Way lead for a time. Long Run had extensive jumping coaching by Yogi last year and Henderson has had problems in that department again. Did come on an awful lot for his first start last term, but that may have been as much to do with ear plugs than anything else. Has been a worryer in the past and reportedly not fully settled in the paddock at Haydock. It’s far from certain he’ll jump as well as last year.
I was concerned Kauto Star wouldn’t be ready in time after a hard race, but connections seem fairly confident of getting him there in good shape.Whether or not Kauto Star wins or not, a profit can be made by backing now at 4/1 and laying him back at shorter. Once public money comes in.
I’ve already backed Master Minded (thinking his stable companion wasn’t going to make it to Kempton). Wish I hadn’t taken the 5/1. Out now to 11/2, and being a second string, not certain to get the trip, probably drift further yet.
If the race does not cut up badly.These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
Value Is EverythingThese three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
Not sure I would go along with you Ginger’ on each of LR, MM and KS underperforming logic. All that may not be necessary for whilst having plenty to do on form, as you say, Captain Chris has no more to do on form than Long Run had last year.
I looked at all of CCs races on video last night and a couple of things struck me…firstly he was nowhere near fit before February last season and secondly that he may be the most talented NH horse in training.
I personally think the 2 mile division is at his mercy but if he does stay 3 miles he is a big player, I think.- Total Posts 17716
These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
They’re the first 3 in the betting (best prices, RP table), and effectively a 1/3 shot, so it’s hardly a bold shout.
Personally, I would favour both Captain Chris and Somersby to finish ahead of Kauto and Master Minded.If Long Run jumps well he’ll probably win. King George and Gold Cup wins better than Kauto’s last time out win. But will Long Run jump well?
Saw a feature Henderson did with ATR and when the interviewer mentioned Long Run’s jumping, he got quite defensive, reading a little into it, maybe he knows it’s still a little chink in Long Run’s armour.
However well he jumped in the Betfair, he still made a mistake or two, and if Kauto is on form in the King George, he might take advantage.
These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
They’re the first 3 in the betting (best prices, RP table), and effectively a 1/3 shot, so it’s hardly a bold shout.
Personally, I would favour both Captain Chris and Somersby to finish ahead of Kauto and Master Minded.Serious question reet…what exactly is the attraction with Sommersby? Seems beloved of many media darlings…had you down as a hard nosed realist…honestly what does anyone see in that beast?
Looks a huge fraud to me.These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
They’re the first 3 in the betting (best prices, RP table), and effectively a 1/3 shot, so it’s hardly a bold shout.
Personally, I would favour both Captain Chris and Somersby to finish ahead of Kauto and Master Minded.Serious question reet…what exactly is the attraction with Sommersby? Seems beloved of many media darlings…had you down as a hard nosed realist…honestly what does anyone see in that beast?
Looks a huge fraud to me.Don’t know how a horse can be a fraud
Definitely see him as more than a bit over rated, and surely there’s as much of a question mark over him staying as with Master Minded?
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I’m not one for slating trainers, Shabs, but I honestly believe Henrietta has lost the plot with Somersby.
Had him down as needing further than 2m ever since his Supreme 3rd, (she even said he was a Gold Cup horse after the Arkle) yet she has persisted in trying to make a 2 miler of him, and he’s ran some blinders in such as the Arkle, Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler, and would have won at least 2 of them, had they been over a little further.
This season she’s given him a bit of a chance over a little further, and ridden more prominently, he won 1 and was a good 2nd in the other. I can only believe the Peterborough was a practice run, as she first said he wasn’t running, then had him ridden like a non-stayer, to lose a race he could have won doing cartwheels.
I honestly believe he’ll actually improve for the 3m and will be hard to keep out of the first 3, but given his trainers previous antics, wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him cut his own throat by taking Kauto on early.Fair enough…though not in agreement about the 3 miles thing (agree on the trainer).
He has become a pet hate for me as he has a hat trick of my favourite negative attributes
1. Almost everyone on TV loves him
2. Poor win ratio
3. His top 7 or 8 performances have been in defeat.Gordon was was very keen on Somersby from when he jumped his first fence and I won’t go back on what I said then about him: He the sort of horse who is just below top class but someday will take benifit from other horses mishaps or under performing and win a big race
Somersby is an extremely consistent animal who has been unplaced only twice in his life. You simply can’t discard him offhand.
Not with so many unanswered questions like is "Kauto Star" going to turn up or will it be that other fella? Will Long Gun remember what Yogi has drummed into him a 1000 times or decide to walk straight into one?. Will Captain Chris and Master Minded stay? You’d think the answer to at least a couple of these would be yes but in racing as we all know anything can happen.
I certainly wouldn’t back him but if he won I wouldn’t exactly be shocked.
These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
Not sure I would go along with you Ginger’ on each of LR, MM and KS underperforming logic. All that may not be necessary for whilst having plenty to do on form, as you say, Captain Chris has no more to do on form than Long Run had last year.
Long Run indeed improved an unusual amount last year to win Shabby. But he only had Kauto Star to under perform. Point I was trying to make is Captain Chris has three rivals to under perform.
Value Is EverythingHave just noticed that this will be Diamond Harry’s first ever race on a right handed track.
I do fancy Somersby to finish ahead of Master Minded. I think in their previous battles, Somersby has looked to have been gaining on Master Minded with every further stride the pair took. Extend that to 3 miles, and i can see Master Minded finishing behind Somersby.
Wouldnt surpise me if the finishing order was –
Long Run
Somersby
Kauto Star.Golan Way is an interesting runner in this, should stay the trip alright, but it is a definite step up in company and class for him, but he may be able to be there or there abouts.
A lot will also depend on how fit Captain Chris is. A very consistent horse, apart from unseating his rider last time out, and finishing 4th on his debut, which was at Kempton, he has never finished outside the top 2, which is strong form. Will he handle the extra distance, and will he be fit enough to finish infront of some useful horses whom he opposes?
These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
Not sure I would go along with you Ginger’ on each of LR, MM and KS underperforming logic. All that may not be necessary for whilst having plenty to do on form, as you say, Captain Chris has no more to do on form than Long Run had last year.
Long Run indeed improved an unusual amount last year to win Shabby. But he only had Kauto Star to under perform. Point I was trying to make is Captain Chris has three rivals to under perform.
Still not entirely in agreement Ginge’…if he makes the same step forward that LR made last year (I think he is capable of those numbers but maybe not at this trip) then he can leapfrog MM and KS in that single bound and then has only LR to contend with.
I take your main point though (if I havent misrepresented you) the Captain has at least 3 credible challengers to beat this year whereas Long Run only had Kauto last term…fair enough.
If the race does not cut up badly.
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