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I think we’re all being pretty rational in this debate.
Drone – I understand that there is a scientific argument that no RNG is truly random – food for thought, sure.
Eclipse First – If the Wibbly Wobbly Wheels of Death had a scantily clad lady offering up the numbers I may change my mind about ’em!
On that point – it’s amazing how sex and gambling are often entwined to appeal to the male punter. All those sexy Eastern European dealers on the virtual blackjack tables of our esteemed bookmakers.
If the machine is
choosing
whether a number is a losing or wining spin – isn’t that taking the randomness out of it?
Surely, it is not for the machine to decide – but fate, sir!?
I’ll deffo try and catch Dispatches (prob via the net on Tue).
Be interesting to see what you all think of it.
Zip
Oooh, one of my fav subjects here!
The randomness question pertaining to the Wibbly Wobbly Wheel of Death isn’t going to go away.
I know it seems ridiculous to suggest bookies would rig machines, but if they could get away with it and satisfy legislation, would it not be tempting?
Where is the clear information in the public domain on how these machines work?
There must be one software engineer somewhere who can tell us? (seems not). Why such secrecy?
The FOBT’s used to pick the same number remotely when a punter pressed the start (spin) button – now each machine requests it’s number individually. So, in theory, each machine could look at each individual spin and determine what number comes up….but, of course, that would be crooked.
For the erudite scientists amongst us that poo poo the claims of skullduggery with these machines I would advise playing them and then going to a real casino.
I know you probably won’t do this for multifarious reasons or perhaps just one very good one, but I have played the FOBT and been to a casino on many occasions and played the roulette.
On the FOBT you often get your number up immediately after you removed your chips from that number. The amount of near misses (heart stoppers on fruit machines) is very high. Hardly anyone seems to win when I’ve been in the bookies. You also get reverse numbers 13/31 12/21 23/32 which could be construed as trying to give players a sense of knowing what is coming next.
The above hardly happens in the real casino from my many visits there. Sure, some peeps get shafted, but there are plenty of people winning and TRULY random sequences. I happily will lose there knowing it is down to luck. And, strangely enough, it seems easier not to be totally shafted there then it does on the bookie roulette. I accept that the spins are not as fast and furious in a real casino.
Is it really that far-fetched to think that FOBTs are programmed with complex psychology to make them more addictive to players – whilst still meeting their percentage (the naturally random 97.3)?
The way in which it takes the money, not just the percentage at the end of the auditing year, is surely important?
There are also £500 jackpot fruit machines in the bookies that say they are random – and yet the stake the player uses determines the percentage at which it plays. I’m told by the manager that this is because of the different prizes for different stakes aspect. Hmmm.
It’s funny, many people felt banks were unimpeachable 20 yrs ago, and now many of us think they’re decidedly dodgy. Many don’t trust them with their money anymore.
Imagine if that happened with betting shops? (*dripping with ironic feigning*)
Zip
Thanks for posting that.
I was looking all over the net last night trying to find a live link but no luck.
Zip
The winner was seriously impressive. Difficult to see anything reversing form IMHO.
As for both Godolphin runners, surely that was too bad to be true, ground or otherwise.
Zip
Discourse
E/W for me.
Really like the attitude of this beast and it has a good turn of foot.
Zip
That’s a fair point, Miss W. The angle I was attempting to come from is that racing is not as dangerous as boxing.
Cue someone to provide stats that prove otherwise…
Zip
Synchronised was a VERY good horse – not sure why his forms being crabbed
Of course, now he won’t be able to prove any doubters wrong. That’s racing. Let the conjecture continue
Zip
Geez, why so much negativity?
It’s a sport, if you score a few goals or hit a hundered you celebrate..if your team wins the title you get excited and emotional.
Why should horse racing folk be androids?
I’m all for grace but see nothing wrong with Nicholls comments post-race…he’s won the league!!!! …or has he?!
Zip
Can’t believe so many forumites want the race scrapped.
What would be next….and next…and next? The course has had more facelifts than the Bride of Wildenstein. http://www.news.com.au/gallery-0-1225775811566?page=1
Beggars belief to do away with this historic national event.
Zip
Very cruel for the main reason that he jumped the fence so well.
It’s one of those strange things in jumps racing where a horse appears to jump well and still goes down.
I DON’T want the National to be changed or scrapped. Akin to scrapping boxing IMHO.
Zip
Such a woeful footnote to one of the best finishes I’ve seen in any race, let alone the National.
It will be equally wretched if the powers that be make further "modifications" to the course…as other posters have said – the race will be emasculated and made ordinary if they continue pandering to the RSPCA and their yearly bleating.
To me, the falls were not because of the course, Synchronised jumped well, these things just happen in racing. I suppose it is part of the drama and unpredictability of the sport.
Personally, I felt O’Neill did the right thing in running the horse as he was in rude health and had a lot of things in his favour – and he really didn’t deserve to go down.
On a happier note I was really pleased for Neptunes, that horse has always tried his heart out and deserves to end on a massive high.
Shakallakkaaaboomboomboom ran well, but perhaps didn’t see it out (?)
You gotta love Seabass, a horse that wins top races over 2 miles plus and places at 4m 4f.
I actually thought Sunnyhillboy had held on when they hit the jamstick.
There’s nothing like racing to emphasise the highs and lows of life. One moment Don’t Push it is giving McCoy his first National and Synchronised is winning a Gold Cup…the next…
Equally, it must be a great relief for John Hales and Co to have snatched that famous victory; credit to them for having the balls to go for it.
Zip
My fav race of the year in terms of sheer spectacle.
Crazy for punting but I’m plumping with:
Shakallakaakaaboomboomboom
He’s ready to rumble for this and has been better prepared than a Waldorf salad at Chez Bruce.
Zip
I totally disagree! lol
Oscar Whisky is the best bet of the meeting. I wish I’d had some 3-1, be interesting to see who is fav when the tapes go up.
Top class beast, Oscar, and I don’t think Rock on Ruby will stay as well.
This is his for the taking – I see him tanking through.
Zip
C’mon Bucksy!!!
If we all had a few million to throw away – wouldn’t this be one of the most nailed on investments ever at 1/4?
Zip
Zippy really likes this meeting so is going to tip you a L15 for day one.
Burton Point
Take 9/2 if you can get it. Won on this track before and certain to stay. Jumps well and is very gutsy and hasn’t had a hard season.
Gwanako
– I remember when he won buff boy Zippy a few quid over these fences in a handicap. Class runner who can be waited with until withering through the field.
Free World
– Lotsa experts (I’m not an expert you see..a sexpert, yes, but not an expert) say this horse was very unlucky in the Grand Annual and was pulling treble when falling.
Pepite Rose
– Very impressive last time and Al Feorf is vulnerable. 3/1 would be a good price.
Over to you guys,
Zip
This is where TRF kicks ass! Deciphering the post-big race analysis
Himself – you made me laff with your quotes from the sexperts on ATR.
Wilts – you made me laff more with your comeback.
But Ginger, I need a fresh pair of knickers after reading that Long Run ran a
STONE
below form!!
It wasn’t a great Gold Cup, but I still think it was better than last year. What did Long Run beat in his King George and Gold Cup victories? A below-par Kauto and a horse that doesn’t stay 3 miles (Riverside). Yep, he beat Denman in the Gold Cup which was a good effort, but Denman had not been 100 percent for a while beforehand. OK, so let’s say Denman ran not far off his best (which is pushing it) then you could say Long Ran ran a few pounds below form in this year’s Gold Cup.
I’m not convinced but I cede that Long Run is a good horse because he has beaten much better horses (when they were not 100% IMHO) in Denman and Kauto.
Really, peps are making up some serious excuses for Long Run – he’s just not
that
good. How can Geraghty or Walsh make the horse go any quicker?
How confident are you that he can win next year’s King George and Gold Cup? Not very, I suspect.
So if you feel the opposition is stronger next year for these races it doesn’t say much for the strength of the races he’s been in so far.
I guess as Grand fromage Cormack said – next year’s Gold Cup may answer the questions of how good Henderson’s horse really is.
Only 360 odd days to go then…
Zip
