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I’d say this race is likely to cut up quite a bit and the one I like is What A Friend. He’s 14/1 at the moment and he’ll be single figures on the day imo. He won the race tow years ago and is still only 9 years old, although it seems like he’s been around forever. He handles it soft so the ground won’t be a problem, and he should be fresher than most of these if his fall at Cheltenham hasn’t effected him too much. Albertas Run will more than likely run in the Melling Chase, and there must be a possibility that Riverside Theatre will go to Punchestown. With Ruby on board he’ll probably be a 7/1 shot.
I’m on
Burton Port
Tommy at 5/1,I fancied him for the National but I can see the logic going for this instead,he’s won around the course before and handles Soft ground well.I’m hoping
Medermit
runs in the Melling as he is a big danger.’Albertas Run’ hates soft ground so wont be winning.’Riverside Theatre’ will find 3m on soft ground a different ball game to what he’s been used to recently.I’d be interested to know who rides what mind if both henderson horses both run.
I fancy Time For Rupert could run a big race round here but I’m taking a chance on Hunt Ball who needs to win this if he is a Gold Cup horse.
He made light work of 12st at the festival and this race falls a bit short of top class so I reckon he has a real good chance of winning this.
Hunt Ball ew
Riverside Theatre’s Ryanair win was genuinely brilliant but I reckon he’s prefers right-handed tracks, he likes to be fresh and – crucially – the win at Cheltenham may have taken it out of him. Plus, he’s a two-and-a-half miler who can do three miles on a good day. Not for me.
I love Burton Port to bits but, again, I think he had a tough time at Cheltenham and he’s a bit too short.
Medermit is more of a three-miler than Riverside Theatre but, again, he’s had a tough race at Cheltenham, and I think he’s going to be playing a supporting role again.
Nacarat’s a fine horse who won this last year, but that was largely because Denman ran too bad to be true.
Master of the Hall is mildly interesting, I suppose, but he’s not quite up to this level. Kinda surprised he’s not in the National.
Carruthers, Follow The Plan, Diamond Harry and Roberto Goldback just aren’t good enough.
This leaves me with two horses.
As I’ve said before, no one knows how good Hunt Ball can be. He won as easy as you like at Cheltenham, and connections believe he’s ready for a step up. He’s still the first horse on my Gold Cup 2013 shortlist, regardless, but I reckon he can run a big race here. A bit of each-way thievery won’t go a miss.
What A Friend! What? Won this race before Friend! What? Improves in the Spring Friend! What? Elevens is too big Friend! What? Each-way thievery Friend! What? The bookmakers will be saying ‘He’s not my ******* friend’ Friend! Oh Hell Yeah…
So, that’s my two for the race, Hunt Ball and What A Friend. Think I’ll do a RFC, too.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Riverside Theatre
has run well at Newbury (left handed) before now, putting up (at the time) his best effort. Unless it’s bottomless (shouldn’t be) I expect him to be at least as effective at this trip. 2nd in the King George proves he stays 3m on good-soft well. Hope he’ll be ridden on the outside, not crowded this time. He’s ultra consistent. Love
Hunt Ball
, a real trier, but will have to make his usual improvement just to be placed (if RT is in form). Still might save on him.
Medermit
is another with similar form to the selection. Another possible saver, but he’s less certain of staying (by Medaaly).
Burton Port
is the proven stayer, but will possibly need all three horses above not to stay to win. Didn’t impress fully at Cheltenham either.
Nacarat
is interesting at a price. Won a poorer renewal of this before, so proven course form. Back to form last time and fresher than most, didn’t run at Chelters. Can’t have
What a Friend
, he’s man’s best friend, dog (the man being a bookie). A thinker, not the sort to forget a fall. Didn’t look to be putting it all in at Newbury either.
Master Of the Hall
has more improvement in him but needs to find it. Didn’t impress me with his finishing effort despite winning here earlier in the year. Possibly suited by taking on inferior rivals.
Diamond Harry
didn’t go with enough enthusiasm at Cheltenham after his op. Usually travels better than that. Others can be ignored.
My 100% book:
Riverside Theatre 11/4
, Burton Port 11/2,
Hunt Ball 11/2
, Medermit 11/2,
Nacarat 10/1
, What A Friend 16/1, Master Of The Hall 16/1, Diamond Harry 33/1, Roberto Goldback 80/1, Carruthers 200/1, Follow The Plan 400/1
Hunt Ball and Nacarat are only (imo) marginal value, with my margin for error not yet a bet. Riverside Theatre is the one @ current 100/30. I took 4/1 earlier in the week.
Value Is EverythingAs many of these ran at Cheltenham and either didn’t perform that well or had hard races, influences my decision.
I won on Riverside Theatre in the Ryanair but had a fairly tough race – yes, he’s the class act. Hunt Ball is one that we prob don’t know how good he really is. Burton Port’s interesting as Henderson pulled him out of the National – must fancy his chances in this.
But i’m going for the fresher horse who does well at Aintree, and with the ground improving today, then for me, it’s Nacarat.
Good luck to all.
Of the market principals;
Burton Port
– I’ve been a huge fan since I backed him when he won the Mildmay Novices’ here a few years back. However, looking back at the form of that race it was not a particularly hot contest and close scrutiny of his Gold Cup 4th doesn’t read too well when you look at the horses he beat. Out of those only Midnight Chase who went off at 12/1 was given any chance beforehand with the other finishers going off at 33/1, 66/1, 100/1, 100/1 & 100/1.
Merdermit
– Looks tripless to me and while I have no doubt he’ll be there or there abouts just seems to have a habit of finding one or two too good so purely on that basis I’d rule him out. May not be a bad bet via the RP app though where you get your money back if your horse finishes second.
Hunt Ball
– What more needs saying and I was right next to him when he took off up the Cheltenham hill and there’s no denying that was impressive but the horse he beat into second that day has only a maiden hurdle victory to his name and was thrashed at Fairyhouse over the Easter break.
Riverside Theatre
– Admittedly had a tough race in the Ryanair but that was a very hot renewal, more so than the Gold Cup and ever since he finished like a train in the Arkle and then looked caught for pace before falling at Punchestown he’s been stepped up in trip and has clearly benefited for it.
The battling qualities he showed will stand him in good stead now that he has to do it again but the way he’s been finishing his races suggests to me that neither the proximity of Cheltenham nor the extra distance will offer any deterrent. The ground IMO will be perfect also, as witnessed by his last two Ascot victories.Conclusion
– while the remainder of the field could pretyy much all be given chances on their day Riverside Theatre should hardly have any question marks and the standout offer off Hills 4/1 is good enough for me, especially via the RP app should he find one too good.
Lee
Riverside Theatre for me, quite simply the class horse in the race, hopefully he’s had enough time to get over Chelts, conditions to suit and don’t expect trip to be a problem.
Damn 50/1 winner of a Grade 1 when was the last time that happened?
Riverside Theatre bounced, Burton Port gets 10 points for trying his heart out, Hunt Ball cruising despite a real bad mistake before the home turn finished like a horse who was over the top, Medermit continues to take the piss and Nacarat ran his heart out again.
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My 100% book:
Riverside Theatre 11/4
, Burton Port 11/2,
Hunt Ball 11/2
, Medermit 11/2,
Nacarat 10/1
, What A Friend 16/1, Master Of The Hall 16/1, Diamond Harry 33/1, Roberto Goldback 80/1, Carruthers 200/1,
Follow The Plan 400/1
I wish you’d start laying me prices…your books would cause you more harm than Salmon Rushdie’s !
So, Follow The Plan’s Punchestown win wasn’t such a fluke, after all.
Other thoughts to take out of the race.
Medermit is so unlucky. He’s got to win something bigger than the Haldon one day, right?
I don’t think Diamond Harry’s really recovered from that injury.
Burton Port is tough as old boots, but will always find one too good.
Riverside Theatre gave too much at Cheltenham, and is still recovering. I wouldn’t necessarily put anyone off him for the King George – he can do 3m if things are right.
Hunt Ball is still a novice. I repeat, Hunt Ball is still a novice. He’s had a lot of races since November. There is more to come.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
[quote="fivelongdays"
Burton Port is tough as old boots, but will always find one too good.If that’s the case, how do you account for his 7 wins out of 17 starts?
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My 100% book:
Riverside Theatre 11/4
, Burton Port 11/2,
Hunt Ball 11/2
, Medermit 11/2,
Nacarat 10/1
, What A Friend 16/1, Master Of The Hall 16/1, Diamond Harry 33/1, Roberto Goldback 80/1, Carruthers 200/1,
Follow The Plan 400/1
I wish you’d start laying me prices…your books would cause you more harm than Salmon Rushdie’s !
I got it wrong Superman.
Something at 400/1 in a 100% book would be around 100/1 with a bookmaker’s mark up added. As the SP in a 115% book was 50/1, to be honest, it wasn’t that much different than bookmakers prices.I can’t remember the last 400/1 horse that won, doesn’t happen often.
Value Is Everything
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