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Liverpool Hurdle 2012

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  • #21496
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Hopefully this will be Big Buck’s coronation but betting-wise:

    Smad Place looks almost guaranteed to be in the first 3. 11/2 at 1/4 odds (only b365) looks a free bet with so many of the 8 runners rank outsiders.
    4/1 Poungach in the betting without market also looks worth taking. Although 16/1 Poungach each way with a saver @ 5/4 Smad Place in the betting without market the other consideration.

    My 100% book:
    Big Buck’s 30/100, Smad Place 5/1, Poungach 12/1, Tidal Bay 80/1, Restless Harry 80/1, Crack Away Jack 400/1, Accross The Bay 2000/1, Won In The Dark 2000/1.

    Value Is Everything
    #399986
    wilsonl
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    Although it’s always a pleasure to see Big Buck’s in action, from a betting perspective this is an awful opener to the meeting.

    Re looking for e/w options – agreed you’d most likely end up getting your money back on Smad Place but I can’t help be worried about the dead 8 runners.

    Considering I’m effectively throwing away my win part of the stake, should there be a withdrawal I wouldn’t want to rely on beating Poungach or a revitalised Tidal Bay simply

    just

    to get my money back.

    Lee

    #399987
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4518

    I think I will just watch Big Bucks win.

    It is a good point about the potential non-runner reducing it to one place. Personally, not too sure about Smad Place or Poungach, neither strikes me as the most straightforward. Then you have the added question as to guessing what the ground will be.

    The first day might be tricky but there should be two or three other opportunities.

    #400005
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Hopefully this will be Big Buck’s coronation but betting-wise:

    Smad Place looks almost guaranteed to be in the first 3. 11/2 at 1/4 odds (only b365) looks a free bet with so many of the 8 runners rank outsiders.
    4/1 Poungach in the betting without market also looks worth taking. Although 16/1 Poungach each way with a saver @ 5/4 Smad Place in the betting without market the other consideration.

    My 100% book:
    Big Buck’s 30/100,

    Smad Place 5/1, Poungach 12/1

    , Tidal Bay 80/1, Restless Harry 80/1, Crack Away Jack 400/1, Accross The Bay 2000/1, Won In The Dark 2000/1.

    Can I have 100K at 30/100 please? Pretty Pretty please?

    Big Buck’s was 1.26 Ginge and even at that short price you would get a better return than backing Smad Place ew taking it he can’t win..can he?

    Also you need to correct your stakes in the national you have 4 out of 13 that will lose you money if they win :shock: ……..do get yourself together lad the world is watching you :mrgreen:

    #400015
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Actually HGM, I made a few mistakes in the original working out, I check my prices by adding a theoretical bookies mark up and gave a few of them instead. So my price for Big Buck’s is even better at 4/11, not 30/100. Although if I were a bookie (which I’m not) 30/100 would be my offered price. :lol:

    My 100% book:
    Big Buck’s 4/11,

    Smad Place 5/1, Poungach 13/1

    , Tidal Bay 80/1, Restless Harry 80/1, Crack Away Jack 400/1, Accross The Bay 2000/1, Won In The Dark 2000/1.

    Value Is Everything
    #400017
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Although it’s always a pleasure to see Big Buck’s in action, from a betting perspective this is an awful opener to the meeting.

    Re looking for e/w options – agreed you’d most likely end up getting your money back on Smad Place but I can’t help be worried about the dead 8 runners.

    Considering I’m effectively throwing away my win part of the stake, should there be a withdrawal I wouldn’t want to rely on beating Poungach or a revitalised Tidal Bay simply

    just

    to get my money back.

    Lee

    Unless it’s a suicidal fast pace I can’t see Tidal Bay beating Smad Place Lee. The reason why I’ve saved on Poungach in the betting without market is the possibility of him beating Smad Place in a 7 runner race. It’s the fact the other runners are such outsiders, just as much as the dead 8 that make it an each way race Lee.

    Value Is Everything
    #400023
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Also you need to correct your stakes in the national you have 4 out of 13 that will lose you money if they win :shock: ……..do get yourself together lad the world is watching you :mrgreen:

    My betting is all about betting for an over all profit HGM. Sometimes I have bets to win half my stake money back, sometimes 3/4 sometimes the whole stake money. Sometimes a horse is backed to win half of my usual profit, Sometimes if I believe it’s a particularly good value price (eg Giles Cross @ 28/1) it’s to win considerably more.

    I know it might be hard for anyone who finds it difficult to see past the one race HGM, but I am quite happy to have the possibility of not making a profit on the race if one of my "savers" win. Because with less stake on it/them it means I’ll make a bigger profit if the main bet/s win. I say again, it is all about over all profit.

    Nice to see you paying attention HGM. :wink:

    Value Is Everything
    #400068
    Getzippy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1152

    C’mon Bucksy!!!

    If we all had a few million to throw away – wouldn’t this be one of the most nailed on investments ever at 1/4?

    Zip

    #400093
    wilsonl
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    Although it’s always a pleasure to see Big Buck’s in action, from a betting perspective this is an awful opener to the meeting.

    Re looking for e/w options – agreed you’d most likely end up getting your money back on Smad Place but I can’t help be worried about the dead 8 runners.

    Considering I’m effectively throwing away my win part of the stake, should there be a withdrawal I wouldn’t want to rely on beating Poungach or a revitalised Tidal Bay simply

    just

    to get my money back.

    Lee

    Unless it’s a suicidal fast pace I can’t see Tidal Bay beating Smad Place Lee. The reason why I’ve saved on Poungach in the betting without market is the possibility of him beating Smad Place in a 7 runner race. It’s the fact the other runners are such outsiders, just as much as the dead 8 that make it an each way race Lee.

    I know the reasoning behind it being a perfect e/w race Ginge but while admittedly I didn’t specify, when you were quoting ante-post rather than day of the race prices I was inferring that I wouldn’t want to be getting involved while there was still a 24 hour window for possible withdrawals – especially given the uncertainty over the ground.

    I’m not an e/w thief myself and as such will leave the race well alone and hopefully just sit back and watch Big Buck’s make history.

    I can understand why nearer to post time others would though – with the obvious caveat that the 8 stand their ground.

    Lee

    #400121
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Also you need to correct your stakes in the national you have 4 out of 13 that will lose you money if they win :shock: ……..do get yourself together lad the world is watching you :mrgreen:

    My betting is all about betting for an over all profit HGM. Sometimes I have bets to win half my stake money back, sometimes 3/4 sometimes the whole stake money. Sometimes a horse is backed to win half of my usual profit, Sometimes if I believe it’s a particularly good value price (eg Giles Cross @ 28/1) it’s to win considerably more.

    I know it might be hard for anyone who finds it difficult to see past the one race HGM, but I am quite happy to have the possibility of not making a profit on the race if one of my "savers" win. Because with less stake on it/them it means I’ll make a bigger profit if the main bet/s win. I say again, it is all about over all profit.

    Nice to see you paying attention HGM. :wink:

    It can also be a massive loser if you don’t get the winner…I think it was the 2nd or 3rd national I had bet in and I had Freddie, Forest Prince, The Fossa, Jims Tavern and What a Myth who was cutting through the pack like a knife and in 4th when he fell at Beechers 2nd time round. I ended up having 2,3,4,5 and a faller when Anglo hacked up at something like 50/1

    This year I have>

    880 Sync 13 11440 9020
    680 Giles Cross 17 11560 9140
    580 Cappa Blue 20 11600 9180
    280 Accordtp 41 11480 9060

    If any of them win I am backing roughly a 4.72 winner which is absolute nuts considering the amount of runners I have against me

    You are even worse that me, you actually have 6 possible losers even if they win (2 nr’s can’t) plus your 130 pts is on at various odds :-
    1.69
    1.92
    2.2
    2.21
    2.2
    3.34
    1.17

    and Like me That’s if one of them wins.

    I think we could find more worthwhile ways to gamble Ginge :lol:

    I’m hoping Sync drifts a bit so I can bet him again and make a decent profit cos as far as I can see backing several is a bookies dream come true.

    Just put it down to Aintree fever National because basically it would be the last race on earth to be gambling in. In the long term it may work out for you but not before the men in white coats pay you a visit :mrgreen:

    #400142
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    A race ?? :lol:

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #400145
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5937

    Too many pats on the neck after the last?

    #400147
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    What race? I thought it was some fellas standing on boxing selling pictures of Her Majesty so I bought a pile :mrgreen:

    Well done to Big Buck’s and all at Ditchaet on setting a new record.

    #400176
    Peruvian Chief
    Member
    • Total Posts 1931

    Yawn….this horse is too good to be racing in Staying Hurdles. With anyone but Nicholls he’d be a Gold Cup contender / winner IMO.

    Sorry to be a party pooper.

    #400247
    befair
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1370

    Yawn….this horse is too good to be racing in Staying Hurdles. With anyone but Nicholls he’d be a Gold Cup contender / winner IMO.

    Sorry to be a party pooper.

    I have to agree with this; obviously a fantastic horse. He wasn’t THAT bad a jumper, leading to the final fence of the Hennessey asa 5-yr-old.
    Any other trainer, and a less compliant owner, and he might have been one of the greats.

    #400314
    Lone Wolf
    Member
    • Total Posts 614

    This race was barely even worth watching. Any potential rival fell, leaving BB to get acclaim for beating a bunch of cart pullers. They should have sent him over for the irish 2m 4f.

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