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It’s hard to see him winning at Epsom though. You need to travel there to get a position, it’s much more of a speed track than York. On the Knavesmire they just gallop and gallop up that home straight, and he was getting scrubbed along the home way up it, having just watched the race again.
In the Derby he won’t have the luxury of time to get into it. The race is more than likely to be over by the time he’s got going. Dancing Brave didn’t travel in the derby and nearly won, but he’s one of the best horses you’ll ever see. Libertarian isn’t in the same league.
They went very fast upfront, the race sort of collapsed and basically the only genuine mile and half horse outstayed them. He’s game and very progressive as you say, but it’s a huge step to imagine him winning a derby.
To be honest, having looked at the Dante again, I’m going to scrap my opinion that he’s a decent each-way bet.. I think he’s a pretty cast-iron place lay sadly. The track will be all against him. I think the connections should scrap any plan to go to Epsom and save him for the Curragh, where he’d have a much better chance.
If you don’t think he is going to be placed presumably you have a string of solid alternatives? No doubt one of which is a 5/4 shot with significant stamina doubts? Personally, I would rather have a horse staying on than one who might spend the last two furlongs treading water – at least at the comparative odds. As far as I can see this is a very weak Derby renewal and for me the Dante represents the best trial by some distance. What price do you think Libertarian would be if Stoute/Cecil trained him? I suspect about 4/1.
I just take the view now (although this is subject to change
) that Epsom won’t suit the horse. Unless he’s found a cruising gear we haven’t seen yet, I think it’s safe to say he’ll be scrubbed along rather vigorously around Tattenham corner, and given the difficulty of the track, and the speed with which the race will unfold, that’s not something that’s going to help his chances.I will be quite pleased to be proved wrong though!Would be nice to have a Northern winner of the Derby especially as I live there!
To be honest, having looked at the Dante again, I’m going to scrap my opinion that he’s a decent each-way bet.. I think he’s a pretty cast-iron place lay sadly.
And by tomorrow he’ll be nailed on each-way again LOL.
Is this a cunning ploy to post every possible opinion, hoping no one will notice, and then after the event quoting the relevant one to say "Look, I told you so"
Be warned, I’m logging all your posts for future reference
LOL
it’s more of a case that I tend to post throw-away comments,of which i’m ashamed of after i’ve done some proper analysis
It’s hard to see him winning at Epsom though. You need to travel there to get a position, it’s much more of a speed track than York. On the Knavesmire they just gallop and gallop up that home straight, and he was getting scrubbed along the home way up it, having just watched the race again.
In the Derby he won’t have the luxury of time to get into it. The race is more than likely to be over by the time he’s got going. Dancing Brave didn’t travel in the derby and nearly won, but he’s one of the best horses you’ll ever see. Libertarian isn’t in the same league.
They went very fast upfront, the race sort of collapsed and basically the only genuine mile and half horse outstayed them. He’s game and very progressive as you say, but it’s a huge step to imagine him winning a derby.
To be honest, having looked at the Dante again, I’m going to scrap my opinion that he’s a decent each-way bet.. I think he’s a pretty cast-iron place lay sadly. The track will be all against him. I think the connections should scrap any plan to go to Epsom and save him for the Curragh, where he’d have a much better chance.
At least with the winner you know he’ll stay for sure- in a poor derby (outside of the favourite) he looks good each-way material.
It did rather remind me of Black Bear Island’s dante though, with very little between most of the runners, hardly indicative of a great race. Cue Nick Mordin telling us how it’s the best Dante for years!
It’s looking more and more likely that Dawn Approach will not only win at Epsom, but that he’ll do a Shergar or a Generous and win by a long, long way.
The betting makes the Dante anybodies race, I’m going each way on Libertarian @ 25/1 could be a lot better than he has shown
wow amazing call
well done
can’t see dawn approach exactly crapping himself but the new wondersire new approach looks to have an iron grip on the derby in any case.
indian chief looks a bit on the weak side
I think that Secret Number at eights with Laddies is ripe for a bit of each-way thievery in this eight-runner race.
Yes, he needs to improve, but they all do, and his form is as good as any. I think his lack of turf experience isn’t a worry, and he’s as good a chance as horses much shorter.
Would Indian Chief be favourite if he wasn’t trained by AOB?
No of course he wouldn’t be.
Although I have stated before the fact that some of these O’Brien maiden winners have poor form seems to matter less than it would be from other stables. He times them all on the gallop and has such a strength in depth that he’ll have a very good idea of how a horse like Indian Chief matches up against his better horses.
A good example of this was Moth in the guineas, her maiden win was poo but it proved irrelevant at Newmarket as she ran on very well and is now favourite for the Oaks, and Kingsbarn last year in the Racing Post trophy.
The betting makes the Dante anybodies race, I’m going each way on Libertarian @ 25/1 could be a lot better than he has shown
Yes it’s very open. I’m on Indian Chief in a double with the Musidora winner today, but you’d have to be worried about Windhoek, Trading Leather, the Gosden horse and one I didn’t even consider before
Secret Number
Still fingers crossed O’Brien can work his magic again in the trials
Liber Nauticus was workmanlike in the end. To be honest I thought I had done my money when the Gosden filly moved up in the straight on the snaff and Ryan was rowing along.
But she responded and you know she’ll stay. Secret gesture and Moth have greater speed probably, but if they go a proper pace in the Oaks I can just see this filly coming up with the goods at the business end.
Looks-wise she’s a lovely filly and she reminds me of North Light. She’s got a great name for an Oaks winner and it would be nice to see Sir Michael winning big races again.
I take what you’re saying about him not being an out and out miler, but he finished close up to Moonlight cloud over a mile and that form alone should be good enough to make him extremely competitive.
I just think this race might turn into a bit of a battle with there not being that much between the main players, and some rain gets into the ground you can see farhh grinding it out.
Part of the reason i’m leaning towards Dawn Approach winning the derby is that no one has put forward a genuine reason why he shouldn’t (I certainly didn’t when I tried
)All of the O’Brien lot look the typical sort of Galileo clones he throws at the race mob handed,seemingly year after year, very good horses but lack the brilliance to trouble the winners enclosure.
You know you are getting desperate when you start to think of horses like Ocovango and Chopin as an alternative to the favourite. If a horse with the horrible name Ocovango wins the race i’ll give the game up.
Magician is off to France and probably wouldn’t get the trip anyway, Telescope is a crock, this race is falling apart. Short of Indian Chief streaking home by 12 lengths on thursday, I can see Dawn Approach going off 4/6 on the big day.
I’d love to see a race thread just solely with your own posts EGS as you seem to be your fiercest rival.
Dawn Approach gone from being a non-stayer to a stayer in a matter of days.
Lee
It’s called tipping for schizophrenics
Telescope out! Wish i’d taken a price on Indian Chief, that will surely go off the jolly now
I recall there being stamina doubts about New Approach before he lined up in the derby, as he was a free-going sort who had to learn to relax.
I must admit initially I was rather doubtful about the chances of Dawn Approach staying but when you think about his relaxed way of racing and how easily he got the stiff mile at headquarters, no easy task for a three year old so early in the year, you start to wonder. He wasn’t exactly stopping at the end was he…
Can’t see a thread about the Derby either?
I too was very impressed by Secret Gesture at Lingfield. She certainly has the stamp of her sire about her. However there are at least a couple of worries
Firstly the opposition was dire. Maybe the Lingfield Derby and Oaks trials were never the premier trials, but they seem to be becoming worse and worse. At this rate they’ll struggle to retain listed, let alone group status.
Secondly the last two Epsom Oaks have been run at a crawl. Very unsatisfactory, likely to turn up a random result and count against the true staying fillies like Secret Gesture, and if they repeat that this year, that would certainly count against her.
Lastly the possibility of quick ground, something she’s never run on.
There’s been a Derby thread since July last year!
I only look at the first page, too lazy to delve any deeper
Sorry yes the Oxx horse!
Not that brilliant Clive Cox horse who romped home in the derby which nobody noticed!
You don’t think Windhoek may be the more progressive/may improve for a galloping track?
Windhoek has three runs compared to his former opponents four each so there is not a lot of difference there. I have always regarded Gosden and Cumani as patient trainers and I think both of their runners will come on a lot for their first race of the season. Ghurair was touted as a possible 2000 Guineas contender but, as is often the case with Gosden, he wasn’t ready for that challenge and I expect him to come here in much better shape than his last outing. Gosden stated that if he had a classic contender in the yard this year it was probably Ghurair. I just think it is a tough enough call as to which of the three will have progressed the most and at the odds it makes sense to me to bag the biggest price by far. Mark Johnston has always been a mystery to me, I can recall many of his horses going off at short odds and disappointing, before bouncing back under exactly the same conditions, in a far better race, at a far bigger price, not long afterwards. With that in mind, Windhoek could well win but it would be just as likely if he finished 5th.
Windhoek strikes me as a hardwicke horse for next year..a relentless galloper.
) that Epsom won’t suit the horse. Unless he’s found a cruising gear we haven’t seen yet, I think it’s safe to say he’ll be scrubbed along rather vigorously around Tattenham corner, and given the difficulty of the track, and the speed with which the race will unfold, that’s not something that’s going to help his chances.I will be quite pleased to be proved wrong though!
