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There’s a picture of Encke crossing the line first at Doncaster, in today’s Telegraph.
The picture is very telling as for even a layman like me I can see he’s very bulky in front- noticeably more so than those in behind, like Camelot for example.
He’s so bulky in fact he looks more like a Quarterhorse than a staying type
Another load of drivel. Please shut up.
Rather than shutting up, I’ve got a better idea.
I’ll put your troll arse on my block list.
There’s a picture of Encke crossing the line first at Doncaster, in today’s Telegraph.
The picture is very telling as for even a layman like me I can see he’s very bulky in front- noticeably more so than those in behind, like Camelot for example.
He’s so bulky in fact he looks more like a Quarterhorse than a staying type
I’m reading this book on economics at the moment, it’s called imaginatively enough "Economics for dummies" although it my case there really should be a book "Economics for superdummies"
In one chapter they talk about "Asymmetric information"
"Asymmetric information is very important in the real world because it limits exchange in a market. If you know that the other person is better informed, you’re afraid that he may use his information to take advantage of you. Similarly, if you cannot expect their honest in the deal, you will be less likely to make one.
"So keep in mind that asymmetric information can lead to market failure-and in the worst cases completely collapse markets as bad goods drive out good.
In these cases, no market can exist because people have been scared off by the fact that other market participants are better informed and have the means to use that against them"
No words could better describe betting on the gee-gees
Incidentally does nobody smell a rat with Telescope. Since his mate Greatwood,ran a stinker in the Derby trial(Dante) the owner,Highhclere now wants Telescope to represent him in the Derby.Everyone looks on in awh!(shucks) at the amazing recovery of Telescope.
I thought that myself! It seems remarkable that a horse can be pulled out of a big race, then a couple of days later its trouncing it’s stablemate by 30 lengths with a dazzling gallop that brings back memories of Nashwan before he won his Guineas! These days in the racing world noone seems to even bat an eyelid!
What it smacks of is that they’re trying to get a better price for the Derby. They knew they could only get around evs/6-4 at best for the Dante, and if he had scooted up in that (given how poor the race ended up looking I imagine he might have won by at least 5 lengths, if he’s as good as they seem to think he is) his price would have collapsed for Epsom.
It seems to me they know they’ve got the bollox here, so maybe we should take the hint?
Rubbish EGS – this is what Simon Crisford said in the aftermath of the win…
“Mickael Barzalona has given the horse a superb ride and put the race to bed when he kicked on at the two-furlong pole. There was a question about Encke’s stamina, but in the end he has stayed it well.
“Encke has a fantastic pedigree and is a horse that has always been forward.
“We put a line through his last run in the Voltigeur which was a false run race.
endAll too easy to look at the race with hindsight.
On the other hand here is what Zarooni had to say. You might like the last sentence of the first paragraph…
“We have been trying to win this Classic. Two years ago we ran Rewilding and last year we ran Blue Bunting who were both favourites. Today we have won it with an outsider. Racing can be a funny game.
“It was a brilliant ride from Mickael which I think is a sixth St Leger win for Godolphin and His Highness (Sheikh Mohammed).
“To be honest, it was His Highness’ decision to run here today. I disagreed and thought we should not. He was right. His Highness and I always disagree but His Highness is always right.
They were obviously handed their pre-written quotes the wrong way around!
I’m not sure anyting is being brushed under the carpet EGS. Private trainer to the biggest owner in the sport brought to book and a host of Newmarket trainers facing a very anxious time of it while investigations take place. What makes you say it is being brushed under the carpet?
Agree though that J McG presumably didn’t back Camelot.
Newbury on saturday springs to mind.
No need to tarnish S Bin Suroor with the same brush.He has always been a gentleman.However can’t see why the colors cannot be used even if horses are left with their original trainers.Seems like the other yard has been into dope for a while.How long do those steroids remain in the system? Zarooni has been gone for a couple of weeks,when were the horses tested?
Could the St.Leger winner have been fed steroids during the interval between the St.Leger and his previous race.Would he have been free of dope by Leger day?
I suggest all runners from that yard who were placed or won last year be disqualified.There is a strong possibility they were doped.
That’s the standard procedure with doped athletes yes. I was rather shocked when Encke ran away with the Leger leaving Camelot in his wake. Nothing in his previous form suggested he was capable of that kind of performance
Does anyone else think it’s significant that noone in the Godolphin camp seemed to suggest any surprise that he won the way he did, or even won at all?
Perhaps you might put it down to the extra distance, but I don’t recall Barzalona, Crisford or the Sheikh (never mind Al-Zarooni, it clearly wasn’t a surprise to him!) express any surprise or incredulous delight in the immediate wake of victory, that they should have crushed the unbeaten hot-pot so easily. No cries of "Well I didn’t see that coming!" or "Who’d have called that?"
Strange…
You are missing the point here. What I don’t like about the article is that he insinuates that doping is somehow O.K.?
If you backed Camelot in last year’s Leger, or any horse that finished behind Certify, you are just as entitled to feel aggrieved as you are if you backed a horse that got stopped.
And my guess is doping is far more widely-spread than stopping horses, which is likely to quickly come under the intense glare of the authorities. Unlike doping, which is quickly brushed under the carpet so the main players, who pump money into the game, can carry on with their wicked practice.
Cheating is cheating however it comes about.
not being funny, but it beggars belief, given the extent of the doping, that al-zarooni was the only guy at godolphin who knew what was going on.
fall guy for me.
The problem with pages and pages of analysis rests with the fact Epsom is a one-off. They have a handful of meetings a year and these days it is almost a certainty none of the runners with have course experience. Not even sure if the Blue Riband Trial still exists in some format? I suspect plenty of Derby winners have won despite the course rather than because of it. There is a huge amount of guesswork involved in deciding which horses will adapt best to what is a pretty unique challenge.
True, there is some guesswork, but the point I was trying to make was that history can also point you towards the winner. Not every year. But sometimes. Without that we really are shooting in the dark. Most people punting on the Derby will just look for the best horse. Past results suggest that is a risky strategy.
An analysis of past results shows that Guineas winners are ones to be wary of for example. Most go off a short price and very few win. Conversely, those who are too stoutly bred, like some of O’Brien’s in recent years, and are sure to get the trip, often lack that X-factor that you need to win the race. Ideally you need a combination of speed and stamina.
As for the Blue Riband trial, I believe it still exists and is run earlier than most of the trials, but it’s a dire race these days, even lower down in the pecking order than the Lingfield and Goodwood trials.
I got castigated on here when I rather suggested he looked like the sort of guy who would try and sell you junk in a Turkish Bazaar
Good news for telescope fans:
Telescope catches the
eye in crucial workoutBY JAMES BURN 9:42AM 19 MAY 2013
TELESCOPE, whose participation in the Investec Derby was in doubt after he suffered leg injuries, impressed workwatchers when exercising on the Newmarket gallops on Sunday morning.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt, who runs in the colours of Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, was due to make his seasonal reappearance in the Dante at York on Thursday.
However, he missed that engagement after grazing his legs when being loaded onto a horsebox.
He was taken out of the Derby betting by bookmakers, but his connections will be buoyed by his workout.Ridden by Kevin Bradshaw, Telescope was joined by an older-horse handicapper under Ryan Moore, who will partner the Galileo colt if he makes Epsom.
The pair galloped on the Limekilns with Telescope finishing well clear.
The Racing Post’s Newmarket correspondent David Milnes watched the action and tweeted: "Telescope looked impressive 30 lengths clear of older handicapper #Derby."
Stoute, reportedly happy with how things went, could give the three-year-old a racecourse gallop with a trip to Epsom for Breakfast With The Stars on Thursday an option.
Telescope is around the 8-1 mark for the Derby with a run.
Anyone else think that Farhh looked rather muscular yesterday?
And the fact they’d been out of form all season and then just ran away with two group races rather worrying, just as they’ve been under investigation for drug offences?
On that performance alone, Farhh will win the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.
The horse did two things today – he laid a marker down to all the best milers around that he will be a force to be reckoned with, and also highlighted what a truly amazing horse Frankel was.
Only problem is Hawk Wing was even more impressive in the Lockinge, and completely bombed out in the Queen Anne, so you can never say never
can anyone recall a horse that was considered too slow beforehand by several commentators (not just one or two)turning that around and actually winning the race? You often hear this quote "if you’ve got one who’s sure to stay then he’s probably too slow to win a derby" but how true is that.
And what about non-stayers? Horses that were considered to be doubtful stayers?
Let’s look at the last twenty winners of the Derby to get some pointers.
1993 Commander in Chief
Didn’t make his debut till 3 years of age. Was highly regarded by the team and when often asked about the favourite Tenby, Henry Cecil was at pains to point out that he rated the Commander just as highly. Was sure to stay on pedigree and hacked up while Tenby disappointed.
1994 Erhaab.
Didn’t lack for speed winning twice over 7 as a two year old. Stayed on strongly in the Dante and repeated the dose on the big day (also the first derby winner i backed, hopefully not the last
) The race was notable for Jason Weaver setting the doubtful stayer Mister Baileys alight and going several lengths clear going around the home bend, but running out of puff.1995 Lammtarra
Out of a Nijinsky out of an Oaks winner in Snow Bride, you couldn’t ask for a better pedigree, was certain to stay. As it was he lived up to his famous parents, smashing the course record on his second start. Also gives hope to backers of Telescope, as it proved you didn’t need much experience to win the big race. The 2000 guineas winner Pennekamp disappointed, but it’s difficult to know for sure if he stayed or not, as he never raced again.
1996 Shaamit
By Mtoto, a high-class middle distance horse who won the King George, he was arguably however something of a mediocre Derby winner as he didnt achieve much after. Likely to stay on pedigree beforehand.
1997. Benny the dip
Showed good fighting skills to get the better of Silver Patriach, who won the Leger. Benny had also won the Dante and Sandown classic trials beforehand. Arguably Entrepreneur, the 2000 guineas winner, failed to get home on the big day.
1998 High-Rise
First Derby I saw in the flesh. The filly Cape Verdi was sent off favourite but was another guineas winner well beaten. High-rise was sure to stay having won the Lingfield Derby trial, but like Shaamit didn’t achieve much afterwards.
1999 Oath
Had won the Chester Dee stakes beforehand impressively. Dam was by Troy so good middle-distance pedigree. Dubai Milliennium was sent off favourite but patently failed to stay.
2000 Sinndar
Brilliant horse who was the first of many recent winners to come via the Derrinstown. Beat another fabulous middle-distance horse in Sakhee.
2001 Galileo
Certain to stay beforehand, being by the brilliant sire Sadler’s Wells, and his dam was Urban Sea, who also sired Sea the Stars.
Beat Golan into second place, a guineas winner, who went on to win the King George as a four year old.2002 High Chaparral
Another who was sired by Sadler’s Wells, out of a Darshaan mare, he also came via the Derrinstown route. Beat the Brilliant miler/10 furlong horse Hawk Wing by outstaying him, with the pair miles clear of the rest.
2003 Kris Kin
His Sire was by Roberto, his dam was by Rainbow Quest, so very good middle-distance pedigree. Came with a withering run in the straight to cut them down. Guineas winner Refuse to bend was sent off favourite, but finished well down the field and was never tried at further than 10 furlongs again.
2004 North Light
By Danehill, who was a sprinter but who’s progeny can get much further, out of a Rainbow Quest mare, he arguably had a perfect middle-distance pedigree with a mixture of speed and stamina. And it proved in the race itself as this magnificent looking beast (as are all of Ballymacoll’s) showed early pace to sit prominently, before kicking on in the straight and then outstaying a future Leger winner in Rule of Law.
2005 Motivator
First Derby winner for the brilliant Sire Montjeu. Had already shown an aptitude for staying by winning the Racing Post trophy as a two-year old, and then following up in the Dante. On the big day he blew them away. Disappointing career afterwards though.
2006 Sir Percy
Some stamina doubts beforehand, but got a great run up the rail. Performed poorly afterwards, and it was the third Dylan Thomas, who was to go on to much better things.
2007 Authorized
Very stout pedigree, and sure to stay on paper but had already shown plenty of speed as well. No surprise when he hacked up as clear favourite.
2008 New Approach
The sire of this year’s favourite, Dawn Approach, as I’ve stated there were doubts about him staying but he showed a brilliant turn of foot at the two furlong pole to get the better of Tartan Bearer.
2009 Sea the Stars
Another magnificent looking beast who oozed class. Definite doubts about him staying beforehand as he is by Cape Cross, a miler, but showed his effortless class in the race, getting the better of the O’Brien clan. One of the best Middle-distance horses of the last twenty or so years.
2010 Workforce
Another brilliant Derby winner. Yet again O’Brien threw plenty at the race and came up short. Jan Vermeer (remember him?) went off favourite, a fact that seems quite laughable in hindsight.
2011 Pour Moi
Another Derby with a multitude of O’Brien runners. Are we seeing a pattern here? When he’s got one or two he tends to win, when he throws a lot at it he hasn’t got anything. Pour Moi was yet another Derby winner for Montjeu out of a Darshaan mare, sure to stay on pedigree. This as a poor derby in any case and it is my view that if Frankel had ran in it, he would have won by half the length of the straight, whether he got the trip or not.
2012 Camelot
As if to prove the theory, he had far fewer runners this time and Camelot arguably beat a poor field. Another Montjeu colt, a great loss to the breeding game indeed…
Sorry if that was rather long!
But i’m a great believer in using history to divine what might happen in future.I think you can see from looking at those results that you are far more likely to win a derby with a horse that is considered too slow beforehand than one who is doubtful to stay.
The history of past derbies is littered with Guineas winners who were very well fancied found the extra distance beyond them. A bad omen for Dawn approach? Admittedly very few Guineas winners had his credentials.
Possibly not a bad omen as he’s stoutly bred on the sire side, and as has already been stated he may have so much in hand that it won’t really matter. But it is somewhat of a warning. Will he be able to show that burst of speed at the end of the race that his sire did? My guess is he probably will.
It’s interesting to note that O’Brien had a lot of success with Derrinstown winners in the past, which points towards Battle of Marengo, but that hasn’t been the case lately, which counts against him.
I think if he runs Battle of Marengo and maybe only one or two others that’s a tip in his favour, but if he runs five or six you can pretty much count him out, if past results are anything to go by.
If you could design the perfect derby horse, it would have been something like North Light, who had a cruising speed but also had great reserves of stamina. You need to be able to take a position at Epsom, very few winners come from miles behind and to my mind this counts against Libertarian, the Dante winner.
I hope it’s all clearer now
) The race was notable for Jason Weaver setting the doubtful stayer Mister Baileys alight and going several lengths clear going around the home bend, but running out of puff.