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I thought that was a poor renewal today and don’t see any of the principals as being realistic contenders for the champion hurdle.
I wouldn’t rate somersby in the same low category as nacarat or golan way. they haven’t consistently got so close to master minded or finished 2nd in an arkle.
sprinter sacre is certainly the one of the three at the front of the arkle betting that i’d actually pay to go and see.
he’s really exciting the way he attacks his fences if donny is anything to go by. have a look at one of the fences in the home straight and he clears it with several feet to spare, breathtaking. horses like that are the reason I follow horse racing in the first place.
The worry though with sprinter sacre is that he’s a free-going sort, and as was alluded to on the betfair forum, there must be a concern to how much he’ll find in a finish, that if it comes to a fight he might curl into a ball.
certainly peddlers cross is the sort of streetfighting type who would expose any weaknesses in that area. he’s clearly tough to beat and has only lost twice under rules.
kempton in any case will tell us a lot more. personally I feel that sprinter sacre will come out on top, but if peddlers cross tracks him and outbattles him in the straight, we might as well throw away any ante-post vouchers on the henderson horse for cheltenham. if he can’t beat peddlers at a sharp track that should play to his strength he probably can’t beat him anywhere.
but my feeling is that he will get the better of peddlers. I know peddlers is already a very warm favourite for the arkle but I just have an opinion that he won’t prove as good over fences as he was over hurdles. my gut feeling before he even jumped a fence was that he wasn’t that big and not the great chasing prospect that many make him out to be.
so far both his runs have amounted to glorified schooling sessions where he’s jumped economically, without exactly taking the breath away i.e. sprinter sacre, but kempton will be the real test for him as sprinter sacre will put the utmost pressure on his jumping, at speed.
as for al ferof, I get the sense that he’s slightly overrated, he didn’t look a natural on his chasing debut, he dived at some of the fences early on, and the supreme kind of fell into his lap after cue card, sprinter sacre and spirit son all got into a fight early on. just an opinion though.
yeah but I think this year is a much hotter renewal of the arkle. for me last years was a weak version by comparison with what this one is squaring up to be.
should be straightforward for binocular. overturn overraced and not convinced this sharp track will suit rock on ruby.
I do think the likes of mcgrath need a kick up the backside, and something like this might help them in that regard. clearly some of these ageing commentators have been on the gravy train far too long, and have lapsed into complacency.
as re kauto, what sticks in my mind is the gold cup last year. he was trained to the minute, jumped beautifully, came there to win his race but was beaten fair and square by long run. (not to mention denman as well)
it just seemed to me the gears that were once there, the explosive turn of foot, was no longer there anymore. probably because all the battles he’s been in have taken their toll. at haydock he didnt really need a change of gear because he was always in the lead and just jumped them into submission, but on the likely good ground at kempton I think he’ll get found out by a younger horse.
boston bob looks a serious player after his win at navan. admittedly he probably didn’t achieve much, as the favourite mount benbulen jumped terribly at times and nothing else got into it.
but he looks a big black beast of a horse, and although he’s likely to be even better over fences given his size, I wouldn’t underestimate his changes at cheltenham. fingal bay is the horse everyone is talking about but i’d give him a swerve, as he’s yet to achieve a decent time figure.
as for somersby, are people really sure that he’ll stay 3 miles? its an interesting question, because while he often stays on at the end of races, equally theres been races over 2 and a half where he’s travelled very well and then found nothing.
surely it must be disconcerting in the context of this race that he couldnt even win last time at huntingdon. I see him described as a paceless tripless beast on another forum, seems a bit harsh but does have some logic behind it.
i’m not saying that captain chris won’t stay, but I just find it hard to believe that a horse that is unproven over the distance can be described as a banker. but good luck anyway.
as for exchanging bank details, thanks but no thanks.
not being funny but how can it be a "banker" when he’s never run over this trip before
normally when people say things like "he broke that horses heart" I take it with a pinch of salt, but it was certaintly true today, I mean who doubts that dynaste would have won that race comfortably if you had taken big bucks out of the equation?
poor bugger probably didn’t understand how the monster got past him.
unquestionably big bucks is in the top three of horses to have ever run under national hunt rules, full stop.
long run wins by process of elimination.
very much doubt that kauto can back up his haydock win at his age, in such a short space of time. was handed a soft lead there pretty much and long run will surely strip fitter this time. don’t buy into nicholls arguments that henderson would have got long run as fit as he could have got him as the betfair chase is such a prestigious race anyhow.
the aim has always been the king george and the gold cup. besides, henderson is carrying everything before him this year.
the others fall into the dubious stayers category. master minded i’m not convinced will stay. early on in his career, they didn’t even seem to think he stays 2 and half, now they are certain he’ll stay three? I don’t get it.
somersby ditto. he always seems to travel well over 2 and a half and then seem to find very little, which doesnt bode well for his hopes over three.
and captain chris has the same questions to answer as concerns his stamina, long run doesnt have those doubts, is 2/2 at the course and is probably the best horse full stop anyway.
for me the horses with the best hurdles form, peddlers cross and al ferof, make the market for sprinter sacre.
of the three of them he really looks like a chaser, and can jump like one. It seems to me that mccain isn’t that confident of peddlers cross ability to jump around grade one tracks in competitive races over fences, otherwise why does he keep putting him in tin-pot races?
for example this weekend he’s running him at haydock, in a very uncompetitive race. just to build his confidence. why not run him in the ascot novice chase tomorrow, which actually looks like a decent contest? no doubt he’ll go off at 1-5 at haydock and learn about as much as he would do in a schooling round.
I don’t like the way he jumps so low, so little daylight at his fences. I feel he’ll clout one or two at cheltenham, as sprinter sacre is bound to put pressure on his jumping.
as for al ferof, he was desperately unimpressive last time and I couldn’t have him with stolen money.
time and time again people fall into the trap of thinking its all about hurdles form, when it comes to novice chasing, when history tells us its quite a different game altogether.
I suppose it is pretty pointless taking on big bucks, its really the gambling equivalent of smashing your head against the wall, but equally he’s becoming increasingly like a no-bet proposition, so short are his odds now.
just for the sake of entertainment if nothing else, i’ve had a small dabble on the pipe horse. he probably won’t be good enough to beat big bucks, but given how well he finished last time having been stepped up in trip, i’d be hopeful that he’ll at least be able to give him a race.
