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For me it is GIBB RIVER 8/1 he is trained by Henderson ran a decent race last time as well.Any thoughts from you guys.
Prospect Wells
is hotpot favourite for this but a line through
Steps to Freedom
makes
Sailors Warn
potentially well handicapped. 6th in the Triumph hurdle he would also appreciate the likely soft ground.
At a bigger price, I like
Third Intention
just behind Sailors Warn in the Triumph. Line through
Via Galilei
gives him 3lb in hand of
Gibbs River
(though that was Gibbs Rivers first run – Not sure if will like really soft ground?)
Cheers,
HawkI think Rajdhani Express has a target, whether it’s this or something in the Spring i’m not sure but it definitely has a decent race in it.
Act Of Kalanisi is my each way bet @ 25-1. Course, distance and going should all be in favour. Trainer had a couple of winners in recent days. Only had five runs over hurdles and should improve.
Brampour will run a massive race but for me GIBB RIVER is the one, hits many trends and ran a very promising run FTO. Comes from the trainer who loves to win this race and has to go well.
My outsider is from up North, trained by David O’Meara, a very up and coming trainer Viva Colonia ran a very good race LTO and if kept closer to the pace should fight out the finish.
Best of luck to all those that take a chance
Going in big (for me) on Sailors Warn. His form with Steps To Freedom leaves Prospect Wells with a fair bit to find and he’s treble the price
Edward O’Grady is well able ready one for a big day and McCoy is booked to ride. I can see him going off 5/1 second favorite as the owner is fond of a gamble.
These are dangerous men when it comes to targeting a race, and this has probably been the plan for a while.
On the card tomorrow is Henderson’s Hadrians Approach, by High Chapparal out of a Roselier mare. Have to say, i love that breeding and could be a possible for the Spring festivals.
For me it’s a nap bet on the very classy flat-runner, Prospect Wells, who jumped superbly recently, when winning in conditions that didn’t suit, and, if he fails, Brampour.
I really hope the weather does not put pay to this race as i really fancy Viva Colonia. Quite likes some juice in the ground and provided they go a good gallop I can see O’Regan nursing him around and pouncing late. 16/1 is far to big.
Good luck all!
Martin
Ground is likely to be very testing which shouldn’t stop the very classy Prospect Wells from winning but best outsider is Marsh Warbler at 20/1 with the magic sign.
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Prospect Wells has clearly been laid out for this, but they wouldn’t have known the going when they did their planning,and with the lowest going stick reading I can recall at Ascot, the ground could well be his undoing.
One who will relish the ground, and – thanks to Mr Nicholls and a capable conditional – gets in here off 10.8, is Marsh Warbler, and I can’t see him out of the first 4.ps Prospect Wells has improved since Cheltenham, and will likely improve again – ground notwithstanding – so I wouldn’t be taking the Steps To Freedom formline too literally.
I’ve backed Brampour, Abergavenny and rank outsider Rigidity. Will probably back Desert Cry too.
Brampour is top weight, but officially 9 lb well-in. As long as he’s over the race last week and improvement wasn’t due to the ground, should go close. Finished second in a listed flat race on very soft at Deauville, so should act on it.
Abergavenny won novices in the summer. First start in a handicap when 3rd to Brampour at Cheltenham. Should be suited by the increased test of stamina if he acts on the ground. Never raced on it over jumps or flat. Hasn’t had much racing over obstacles and improving fast.
Rigidity is my "out of the ball park". Very decent for Henry Cecil on the flat. Moved to Ireland over jumps and only ok form there, winner on very soft ground. Reportedly had physical problems diagnosed when coming over to Tim Vaughn. Not given a hard race on first start, behind Grandouet and Marsh Warbler at Haydock. If his problems are over, his flat form suggests he’s very well handicapped (despite 1 lb out of the handicap). 5 lb Claimer Robert Kirk is no Harry Derham, but a 10% strike rate isn’t bad.
Desret Cry improved yet again on reappearance to win at Haydock. Looks another one of those genuine triers for the McCain stable. Proven on heavy ground and an increased test from last time should suit.
My 100% book:
Prospect Wells 5/1,Brampour 15/2
, Gibb River 8/1,
Desert Cry 9/1
,
Abergavenny 11/1
, Rajdhani Express 16/1, Sailors Warn 16/1, Via Galilea 18/1, Raya Star 18/1, Viva Colonia 20/1,
Rigidity 25/1
, Marsh Warbler 33/1, Tonic Mellyse 33/1, Alarazi 33/1, Act Of Kalanisi 33/1, Ciceron 125/1.
Value Is EverythingIt’s Gibb River for me. The big horse will improve enough to defy the ‘well in’ Brampour.
I thought it was generally held that it is difficult to make up ground in heavy going. If that applies to soft, particularly in a race largely run at a slow pace, I’m at a loss to understand why middle-distance flat horse, Prospect Wells and stayer, Brampour, were not at least close up behind the leaders, taking off a few furlongs out.
But, then, what do I know about jockeyship that Rube and Harry Derham don’t? Thanks to Gary Nutting of the Mirror and ATR, I had a saver on Raya Star at 12s and 10s (he’d tipped it at 16s), but made precious little on the race having weighted Prospect Wells and Brampour, singly as well as in a reverse forecast, doubles and trebles. They also caused me to lose on the day, so I was glad to get most of my money back on RS and a few smaller races.
Realistically, for want of better insight into it, anyway, I suppose I must put it down to another seemingly anomalous result affected by a sudden change to soft ground, though they have both acted on it. Still, it’s interesting that Mordin rated Empire Levant a good prospect for the Schweppes in February, while Raya Star, 3rd and First Fandango 4th, returned the same RP rating in Raya Star’s previous race (the listed race won by Rock on Ruby) as Empire Levant, the second home. It seems First Fandango could be one to watch out for, though I suppose his profile will tell some kind of story in relation to his ability and potential for improvement, in relation to the others.
Impossible and draw any conclusions on Brampours rating on that run.
The race, for me, on this going was always going to come too soon after his recent handicap exploits, culminating in his gallant run in the Greatwood; that’s four races in just over six weeks!.
In hindsight, connections will be wishing they hadn’t bothered, and it’ll be interesting to see if the race hasn’t hindered the progression of the horse – for the remainder of the season, in any case.
Gibb River jumped poorly, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go novice chasing – infact, I’m scratching my head wondering why he wasn’t tried over fences on his reappearance. The horse just doesn’t show enough respect for his hurdles IMO.
Yes, particularly as Brampour is a four-year old. Also, his Greatwood run was a mighty one – less than a second below standard on good to soft. Perhaps too mighty in the shortish term, as you suggest.
But Gary Nutting’s record in relation to his AP tips at big prices, this year has been extraordinary. I’ve just noticed he recommended 4 points ew on RS this morning on ATR.
Rigidity is my "out of the ball park". Very decent for Henry Cecil on the flat. Moved to Ireland over jumps and only ok form there, winner on very soft ground. Reportedly had physical problems diagnosed when coming over to Tim Vaughn. Not given a hard race on first start, behind Grandouet and Marsh Warbler at Haydock. If his problems are over, his flat form suggests he’s very well handicapped (despite 1 lb out of the handicap). 5 lb Claimer Robert Kirk is no Harry Derham, but a 10% strike rate isn’t bad.
2nd
So near and yet so far.
Didn’t even back Rigidity each way!As far as Brampour goes, it’s a race to forget. Turned in to a mile race. Needs a truly run 2 miles.
I don’t think the form of the Ladbroke is going to work out well in the coming weeks.
Value Is Everything
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