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This telescope is very short in the betting for the derby, 5-1 and he’s rated 89! For me he looked more workmanlike than anything in his maiden win, and will surely be worth taking on at his miserable odds next week.
Step forward Mars, who’s trainer has been mopping up the derby trials already, he will surely be much better suited by this trip than he was in the guineas.
However I think Michael Stoute will get some compensation in the Musidora with the very well-bred Liber Nauticus. The opposition looks extremely weak in this Oaks trial for me and she should hack up, on a track where her sire Azamour won the King George.
I think I’ll just watch the trials at York. Stoute’s horses are way too short for me based on what they have done. I have Ruler Of The World for the Derby at 25/1 and Just The Judge at the same odds for the Oaks. Just The Judge is being aimed at another mile race now though, which is a big mistake I think, and not just because I have a bet on her. I have a back up for the race in the shape of the unsexy Secret Gesture for Ralph Beckett. She runs in the Lingfield Oaks trial tomorrow and I hope that the step up in trip and a winter on her back will help her to become a realistic contender. I backed her a while ago at 25/1 and win lose or draw I think those odds would have been a lot shorter if she were trained by O’Brien, Cecil or Stoute. Should be a interesting few days ahead.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
5-2 Telescope for the Dante, with paddypower; if it really is a wonderhorse, I guess that isn’t too bad. I was half expecting 6-4.
7-1 Mars. Surely that’s huge?
Windhoek won nicely enough at Newmarket, but O’brien must have a line through the close-up fourth in that race which was well beaten by his Ruleoftheworld at Chester.
Btw I learnt the other day what Windhoek meant. It’s the capital of Namibia! The joys of cramming for Quiz shows
Tartan Bearer was double rated figure going into the 2008 Dante after a workman like maiden at Leicester, still won the Dante, I’d rather side with Telescope.
Tartan bearer was much bigger odds to win the dante though (8-1 off the top of my head?)
Still stoute’s record with these type of horse’s must be respected, and maybe the opposition is poor?
Secret gesture, wow how impressive was that
Tartan Bearer was 10/1 when he won the Dante, scrambling home from Frozen Fire and 4/6 Fav, our old pal, Twice Over only third that day. I don’t see how that win helps Telescope though. Stoute has had a terrific record with Dante/Derby winners but has had a couple of modest seasons by his standards. Even if Telescope wins the Dante he still has New Approach and several O’Brien contenders to face at Epsom. Of course he
could
be anything but he has to find a lot of improvement to get to the Derby favourite’s level of form.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I notice Telescope is now trading close to evs on Betfair for this race now. That seems stupidly short to me given on paper at least, this looks a hot Dante.
It’s interesting to note also, that Trading Leather, who is declared for the race and has the highest rating of these, is hardly considered in the betting. An example of hype in action or is it a case of THEY know?
Still in the absence of Mars I am now going to back Indian Chief. Has produced nothing of note on the book, rather like the favourite, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that anything O’Brien is running in the derby trials should be greatly feared.
Given he’s won all of them so far
This is the best of the trials so would it not follow that this might be one of the best of his hopes? Even if traditionally he runs his best Derby horse in the Derrinstown. Certainly showed a laser-like turn of foot last time out and it seems to me a lot of these are out-and out gallopers (Windhoek, Trading leather etc)
I can see Joseph holding him out the back and tracking this Telescope. When Telescope whooshes past the one-paced gallopers, Indian Chief picks him up just before the line. That’s the theory anyway.
All hail the Indian Chief!
I don’t think this Dante is as competitive as first appears. Windhoek, Greatwood and Ghurair could have been covered by a hobbit’s duvet when they met at Newmarket and it would be a brave man to bet which one of those will have progressed the most since then. The fourth horse that day, Havana Beat, got a tanking from Ruler Of The World, who was much less experienced, and for me that doesn’t make the form look that strong on the bare evidence of it.
There hasn’t been a halfpenny for Trading Leather in the ante-post market for the Derby and that has to be a worrying sign for his prospects in the Dante. Secret Number doesn’t interest me at all and that leaves Indian Chief of the fancied ones. He has run on heavy and soft thus far and been odds on both times in maiden company. Obviously he might improve for a faster surface but I think he is in a false position at 5/1 given the question marks.Basically, it looks there for the taking for Telescope if he is half as good as is being touted but at the short odds I would rather go each way and if I had to have a bet in this it would be on Ghurair at 12/1. He was evens favourite behind Windhoek and Greatwood beaten only a short-head and a neck. With John Gosden being notorious at getting his better types ready in time for the classics, it would be no surprise to see this horse in much better shape now. When you look at the two who were just in front of him that day it makes little sense to me that they are both generally 5/1 and he is more than twice those odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You don’t think Windhoek may be the more progressive/may improve for a galloping track?
You don’t think Windhoek may be the more progressive/may improve for a galloping track?
Windhoek has three runs compared to his former opponents four each so there is not a lot of difference there. I have always regarded Gosden and Cumani as patient trainers and I think both of their runners will come on a lot for their first race of the season. Ghurair was touted as a possible 2000 Guineas contender but, as is often the case with Gosden, he wasn’t ready for that challenge and I expect him to come here in much better shape than his last outing. Gosden stated that if he had a classic contender in the yard this year it was probably Ghurair. I just think it is a tough enough call as to which of the three will have progressed the most and at the odds it makes sense to me to bag the biggest price by far. Mark Johnston has always been a mystery to me, I can recall many of his horses going off at short odds and disappointing, before bouncing back under exactly the same conditions, in a far better race, at a far bigger price, not long afterwards. With that in mind, Windhoek could well win but it would be just as likely if he finished 5th.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You don’t think Windhoek may be the more progressive/may improve for a galloping track?
Windhoek has three runs compared to his former opponents four each so there is not a lot of difference there. I have always regarded Gosden and Cumani as patient trainers and I think both of their runners will come on a lot for their first race of the season. Ghurair was touted as a possible 2000 Guineas contender but, as is often the case with Gosden, he wasn’t ready for that challenge and I expect him to come here in much better shape than his last outing. Gosden stated that if he had a classic contender in the yard this year it was probably Ghurair. I just think it is a tough enough call as to which of the three will have progressed the most and at the odds it makes sense to me to bag the biggest price by far. Mark Johnston has always been a mystery to me, I can recall many of his horses going off at short odds and disappointing, before bouncing back under exactly the same conditions, in a far better race, at a far bigger price, not long afterwards. With that in mind, Windhoek could well win but it would be just as likely if he finished 5th.
Windhoek strikes me as a hardwicke horse for next year..a relentless galloper.
Now no Telescope in the Dante. My my it is getting rather thin on the ground. Connections reckon they can still get him right for the Derby though. Who are they trying to kid? What chance could he possibly go there with now?
Telescope out! Wish i’d taken a price on Indian Chief, that will surely go off the jolly now
Now no Telescope in the Dante. My my it is getting rather thin on the ground. Connections reckon they can still get him right for the Derby though. Who are they trying to kid? What chance could he possibly go there with now?
Telescope is still as low as 6/1 with William Hill. Quite frankly that is an utter disgrace. You can get 6/1 with a run from other firms or 9/1 all in. That is still mighty short.
Maybe the stats guys will know how many four grand maiden winners lifted the Derby on their seasonal debut? Surely it can’t be many, if any.
This horse has to go from maiden company to group 1 with nothing in between and of all places he has to do it at Epsom. Other horses have fitness and experience on their side and in the case of Dawn Approach almost certainly more pace.
Another case of "British Bookies and Their Unfeasibly Small Testicles".
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Surely at a best price 6’1 with PP Trading Leather is a good bet for the Dante.
His run behind Kingsbarn I think is best forgotten as that was on soft ground.
Bolger said after Newmarket he was very ground dependent with g’f ground tomorrow I think he will run a big race.Surely at a best price 6’1 with PP Trading Leather is a good bet for the Dante.
His run behind Kingsbarn I think is best forgotten as that was on soft ground.
Bolger said after Newmarket he was very ground dependent with g’f ground tomorrow I think he will run a big race.Will it be g/f though? Heavy rain moving North likely to change the going for the next two days. Maarek being backed in to 6/1 in the DOY Stakes tomorrow on the back of the forecast rain.
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