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A competent enough win by Liber Nauticus in the end but I didn’t see enough to consider a saver bet for the Oaks. She looks a real stayer and will improve for the extra distance at Epsom. She has a great physique and will probably outclass Secret Gesture in the paddock at Epsom, but perhaps the race will come soon enough for Liber Nauticus to be at her peak. I still rate her a bigger danger than Moth, who I think will run out of petrol late on. At least it is shaping to be quite competitive, unlike the Derby, where I think there are some silly odds on horses with plenty to prove.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The betting makes the Dante anybodies race, I’m going each way on Libertarian @ 25/1 could be a lot better than he has shown
Yes it’s very open. I’m on Indian Chief in a double with the Musidora winner today, but you’d have to be worried about Windhoek, Trading Leather, the Gosden horse and one I didn’t even consider before
Secret Number
Still fingers crossed O’Brien can work his magic again in the trials
I think that Secret Number at eights with Laddies is ripe for a bit of each-way thievery in this eight-runner race.
Yes, he needs to improve, but they all do, and his form is as good as any. I think his lack of turf experience isn’t a worry, and he’s as good a chance as horses much shorter.
Would Indian Chief be favourite if he wasn’t trained by AOB?
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I think that Secret Number at eights with Laddies is ripe for a bit of each-way thievery in this eight-runner race.
Yes, he needs to improve, but they all do, and his form is as good as any. I think his lack of turf experience isn’t a worry, and he’s as good a chance as horses much shorter.
Would Indian Chief be favourite if he wasn’t trained by AOB?
No of course he wouldn’t be.
Although I have stated before the fact that some of these O’Brien maiden winners have poor form seems to matter less than it would be from other stables. He times them all on the gallop and has such a strength in depth that he’ll have a very good idea of how a horse like Indian Chief matches up against his better horses.
A good example of this was Moth in the guineas, her maiden win was poo but it proved irrelevant at Newmarket as she ran on very well and is now favourite for the Oaks, and Kingsbarn last year in the Racing Post trophy.
Although I have stated before the fact that some of these O’Brien maiden winners have poor form seems to matter less than it would be from other stables. He times them all on the gallop and has such a strength in depth that he’ll have a very good idea of how a horse like Indian Chief matches up against his better horses.
A good example of this was Moth in the guineas, her maiden win was poo
You would normally assume that a trainer would send his best prospect to contest the Dante but, obviously, O’ Brien often keeps them at home, following the Battle Of Marengo path to Epsom. I have a nagging concern that Indian Chief may have been entered in order to gauge the ability of the well touted Telescope in relation to the stable’s best contenders. In his absence, Indian Chief could still prove good enough to win this but I think he is short enough with decent and unexposed sorts in contention.
Regarding Moth, I didn’t think the race was as bad as you said
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The betting makes the Dante anybodies race, I’m going each way on Libertarian @ 25/1 could be a lot better than he has shown
wow amazing call
well done
can’t see dawn approach exactly crapping himself but the new wondersire new approach looks to have an iron grip on the derby in any case.
indian chief looks a bit on the weak side
The betting makes the Dante anybodies race, I’m going each way on Libertarian @ 25/1 could be a lot better than he has shown
I take my hat off to you there. I wouldn’t have fancied him in a million years. I actually thought Ghurair was tavelling just about best of the lot at one stage but perhaps didn’t get home. He certainly saw off his two old sparring partners in Windhoek and Greatwood, who was most disappointing. Trading Leather ran with his head cocked at a funny angle for a fair way and after seemingly travelling well it looked like he would be swamped before staying on again past Ghurair, adding to the theory that the latter didn’t see the trip out. All in all there was nothing really to take from the race other than it was a competitive but below average renewal. Well done on snaring the winner though!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very impressed with the winner. Looks a really nice type. It might not have been a vintage Dante but it looked a much better ‘trial’ than those won by O’Brien. I would have the horse second or third favourite for the Derby and he currently looks massively overpriced.
Looked an open Dante beforehand and so it proved.
Fallon missed the break, stumbled, needed to get at him to make up ground/get the rail and then found himself going too quickly and needed to reign back. Greatwood is better than he showed today, but a line through Windhoek and Ghurair suggests would’ve needed to improve considerably to win here anyway.
Indian Chief is a grand sort and improved form; just not enough to win. Should continue improving all year and in to next judging by his looks.
Trading Leather probably ran somewhere near his Newmarket winning form and genuine though he is, looks unexposed now.
Secret Number had form as good as any of these, but that was at Meydan and (as we all know now) form shown by Dubai trained horses there rarely works out. Bin Surroor is in awful form and I’d be against anything he sends out at the moment.
Libatarian deserves credit for improving to beat what was probably a below average Dante field. Nice looking sort and should do even better at 1m4f. Pushed along before the turn for home and it was stamina rather than speed that won the day. Possibly the best chance a northern trained horse has of winning the Derby since Karinga Bay (Johnston excluded)? If Telescope doesn’t get there may have the best chance of keeping the Trophy in Britain.
Is Libatarian over-priced @ 25/1? Probably is to a certain degree, but not in my opinion enough for me to back it.I am already on Dawn Approach, but am considering the chances of Chopin making music at Epsom. Germany looks to have a horse with a better chance of winning the Derby than the Brits this year.
Value Is EverythingCan’t ever remember a course’s going description being so temperamental.
Good-Firm to Soft in a little over 48 hours with varying degrees back and forth in the meantime.
No wonder so many horses have been scratched last minute.
Lee
Very impressed with the winner. Looks a really nice type. It might not have been a vintage Dante but it looked a much better ‘trial’ than those won by O’Brien. I would have the horse second or third favourite for the Derby and he currently looks massively overpriced.
I’d be very worried about the form working out. Jim Bolger said that Trading Leather will only go to the Derby if something happens to Dawn Approach. As I said before the race, I doubt that Indian Chief is anywhere near the best of O’Briens, Bin Suroor is stinking the place out right now and the old rivals Ghurair, Windhoek, Greatwood triumvirate couldn’t win a Derby if you created one twelve-legged hybrid out of all three of them.
Libertarian could do no more than win but it has flash in the pan written all over for me and surely he has a lot to find with Battle of Marengo through Sugar Boy, having finished more than 8 lengths behind him previously with a couple of real staying types a similar distance ahead as well. I don’t fancy him at all for Epsom but then again I didn’t fancy him today. Maybe he just got home best in a race run a couple of seconds faster than the older fillies race earlier.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
At least with the winner you know he’ll stay for sure- in a poor derby (outside of the favourite) he looks good each-way material.
It did rather remind me of Black Bear Island’s dante though, with very little between most of the runners, hardly indicative of a great race. Cue Nick Mordin telling us how it’s the best Dante for years!
It’s looking more and more likely that Dawn Approach will not only win at Epsom, but that he’ll do a Shergar or a Generous and win by a long, long way.
I suspect I wasn’t alone in not being familiar with Libertarian’s previous exploits. They are something of an eyeopener.
His narrow debut win in a four runner race at Pontefract is about as far removed from winning a Dante as you could get. On that basis in itself the entry in the Sandown Classic Trial looked wildly optimistic. In running fourth abeit well beaten he showed massive improvement and given that he was carried wide you could easily ratchet the form up 3 or 4 lengths. Clearly the Dante was another massive step forward. Yes, they may have finished quite close together but the winner was totally dominant where it mattered and most importantly had the race been extended to the Derby distance I suspect he would have won by five or even six lengths. The horse lacks experience but has a hugely progressive profile and until proven otherwise it would be very unfair to suggest the Dante win was something of a fluke.
Pundits have suggested he isn’t an Epsom type. Who knows? One thing is for sure it isn’t going to be a slowly run race and that should definitely be to his advantage.
Given the strength of opposition at this stage 25/1 represents a silly price.
It’s hard to see him winning at Epsom though. You need to travel there to get a position, it’s much more of a speed track than York. On the Knavesmire they just gallop and gallop up that home straight, and he was getting scrubbed along the home way up it, having just watched the race again.
In the Derby he won’t have the luxury of time to get into it. The race is more than likely to be over by the time he’s got going. Dancing Brave didn’t travel in the derby and nearly won, but he’s one of the best horses you’ll ever see. Libertarian isn’t in the same league.
They went very fast upfront, the race sort of collapsed and basically the only genuine mile and half horse outstayed them. He’s game and very progressive as you say, but it’s a huge step to imagine him winning a derby.
To be honest, having looked at the Dante again, I’m going to scrap my opinion that he’s a decent each-way bet.. I think he’s a pretty cast-iron place lay sadly. The track will be all against him. I think the connections should scrap any plan to go to Epsom and save him for the Curragh, where he’d have a much better chance.
I suspect I wasn’t alone in not being familiar with Libertarian’s previous exploits. They are something of an eyeopener.
His narrow debut win in a four runner race at Pontefract is about as far removed from winning a Dante as you could get. On that basis in itself the entry in the Sandown Classic Trial looked wildly optimistic. In running fourth abeit well beaten he showed massive improvement and given that he was carried wide you could easily ratchet the form up 3 or 4 lengths. Clearly the Dante was another massive step forward. Yes, they may have finished quite close together but the winner was totally dominant where it mattered and most importantly had the race been extended to the Derby distance I suspect he would have won by five or even six lengths. The horse lacks experience but has a hugely progressive profile and until proven otherwise it would be very unfair to suggest the Dante win was something of a fluke.
Pundits have suggested he isn’t an Epsom type. Who knows? One thing is for sure it isn’t going to be a slowly run race and that should definitely be to his advantage.
Given the strength of opposition at this stage 25/1 represents a silly price.
Time may prove you correct but I take the view that Stan James’ odds of 12/1 for him are a sillier price after a win in a race that had to find itself a favourite by defaulting to the old "Right it’s the O’Brien One" formula.
I’ll be delighted for connections if he does win though. It would be a breath of fresh air to see the multi millions (and that’s just the number of entries!!) turned over by the "little guy"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To be honest, having looked at the Dante again, I’m going to scrap my opinion that he’s a decent each-way bet.. I think he’s a pretty cast-iron place lay sadly.
And by tomorrow he’ll be nailed on each-way again LOL.
Is this a cunning ploy to post every possible opinion, hoping no one will notice, and then after the event quoting the relevant one to say "Look, I told you so"
Be warned, I’m logging all your posts for future reference
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s hard to see him winning at Epsom though. You need to travel there to get a position, it’s much more of a speed track than York. On the Knavesmire they just gallop and gallop up that home straight, and he was getting scrubbed along the home way up it, having just watched the race again.
In the Derby he won’t have the luxury of time to get into it. The race is more than likely to be over by the time he’s got going. Dancing Brave didn’t travel in the derby and nearly won, but he’s one of the best horses you’ll ever see. Libertarian isn’t in the same league.
They went very fast upfront, the race sort of collapsed and basically the only genuine mile and half horse outstayed them. He’s game and very progressive as you say, but it’s a huge step to imagine him winning a derby.
To be honest, having looked at the Dante again, I’m going to scrap my opinion that he’s a decent each-way bet.. I think he’s a pretty cast-iron place lay sadly. The track will be all against him. I think the connections should scrap any plan to go to Epsom and save him for the Curragh, where he’d have a much better chance.
If you don’t think he is going to be placed presumably you have a string of solid alternatives? No doubt one of which is a 5/4 shot with significant stamina doubts? Personally, I would rather have a horse staying on than one who might spend the last two furlongs treading water – at least at the comparative odds. As far as I can see this is a very weak Derby renewal and for me the Dante represents the best trial by some distance. What price do you think Libertarian would be if Stoute/Cecil trained him? I suspect about 4/1.
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