Forum Replies Created
- Posts
I notice Telescope is now trading close to evs on Betfair for this race now. That seems stupidly short to me given on paper at least, this looks a hot Dante.
It’s interesting to note also, that Trading Leather, who is declared for the race and has the highest rating of these, is hardly considered in the betting. An example of hype in action or is it a case of THEY know?
Still in the absence of Mars I am now going to back Indian Chief. Has produced nothing of note on the book, rather like the favourite, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that anything O’Brien is running in the derby trials should be greatly feared.
Given he’s won all of them so far
This is the best of the trials so would it not follow that this might be one of the best of his hopes? Even if traditionally he runs his best Derby horse in the Derrinstown. Certainly showed a laser-like turn of foot last time out and it seems to me a lot of these are out-and out gallopers (Windhoek, Trading leather etc)
I can see Joseph holding him out the back and tracking this Telescope. When Telescope whooshes past the one-paced gallopers, Indian Chief picks him up just before the line. That’s the theory anyway.
All hail the Indian Chief!
Can’t see a thread about the Derby either?
I too was very impressed by Secret Gesture at Lingfield. She certainly has the stamp of her sire about her. However there are at least a couple of worries
Firstly the opposition was dire. Maybe the Lingfield Derby and Oaks trials were never the premier trials, but they seem to be becoming worse and worse. At this rate they’ll struggle to retain listed, let alone group status.
Secondly the last two Epsom Oaks have been run at a crawl. Very unsatisfactory, likely to turn up a random result and count against the true staying fillies like Secret Gesture, and if they repeat that this year, that would certainly count against her.
Lastly the possibility of quick ground, something she’s never run on.
This Derby is starting to take on shade’s of Sea the stars Derby when O’Brien threw everything he had at the Cox horse and still came up short.
I have some reservations about Dawn Approach getting the trip like everyone else, but if he does it’s difficult to imagine anything stabled at Ballydoyle beating him.
In fact i’d even go as far to say that O’Brien is the master at training very good horses- even extremely good horses, but he has very few truly GREAT horses.
In my opinion the only one of his Derby winners who was truly great was Galileo himself. High Chapparal and Camelot are very good horses indeed, but only Galileo took the breath away on the day itself.
Tartan bearer was much bigger odds to win the dante though (8-1 off the top of my head?)
Still stoute’s record with these type of horse’s must be respected, and maybe the opposition is poor?
Secret gesture, wow how impressive was that
I think you can go into the technical details of whether a horse will stay or not too much. The best bet is to look with your own eyes how the horse performs on the racecourse.
I’ve got a sneaky feeling that Nevis will turn over this hot-pot Greatwood in the Lingfield derby trial today.
Rather surprising that it’s currently trading about 3-1 given the domination already shown by O’brien horses in the Derby trials.
5-2 Telescope for the Dante, with paddypower; if it really is a wonderhorse, I guess that isn’t too bad. I was half expecting 6-4.
7-1 Mars. Surely that’s huge?
Windhoek won nicely enough at Newmarket, but O’brien must have a line through the close-up fourth in that race which was well beaten by his Ruleoftheworld at Chester.
Btw I learnt the other day what Windhoek meant. It’s the capital of Namibia! The joys of cramming for Quiz shows
Hmmm may have jumped the gun there, just had a look at it’s pedigree and it’s by Galileo out of a Mozart mare who never raced further than 7 furlongs, must be a severe doubt about it getting the trip in the Derby.
In any case it looks a horse to follow
I thought you were backing O’Brien in all the trials?
Magician has a real mixed bag of entries from 1M to 1 1/2 Miles. He looked good at the trip today and with so many likely types, who are less exposed, in the yard he may stay away from Epsom. I note he is not entered in the Irish Derby and looking at what he beat today I would think The French Derby, where he wouldn’t have to face Dawn Approach, might be a better option for him? I know the runner up was mooted as a possible for that race, although I doubt they would want to take Magician on again.
I was going to but can never get O’brien’s right!
Yeah I’d certainly agree with you there re the winner today. O’brien did mention that he had a lot of speed and that Ruleroftheworld was more the middle-distance type. But maybe he’ll take the view that the rest of his lot will lack the speed and brilliance to trouble dawn approach at Epsom and gamble with Magician? A lot will depend on how Mars performs in the Dante next week and of course Battle of Marengo in the Derrinstown.
Hmmm may have jumped the gun there, just had a look at it’s pedigree and it’s by Galileo out of a Mozart mare who never raced further than 7 furlongs, must be a severe doubt about it getting the trip in the Derby.
In any case it looks a horse to follow
Bit pissed off there. Ended up backing this contributer in the end, he ran very well, but had no chance against that thing which looked like it had a rocket up it’s bum.
To be honest that was the most impressive performance in terms of the derby i’ve seen so far, this magician thing has so much speed
Shades of Toronado and the Craven. I know bookmakers are desperately trying to find alternatives to the favourite but surely the reaction to what was effectively not much more than another solo spin was ridiculous.
It’s a bit different surely? Toronado came in a lot shorter in the betting for the guineas than Ruler of the world is for the derby
Still I get the impression that trials are more or less irrelevant these days. Certainly in the guineas most winners of that race go there without a run, and you would also have to say that the guineas itself is easily the best trial for the derby
Think i’ll have a punt on Willie the Whipper tomorrow in the dee stakes, which by the sounds of it will soon be downgraded to listed status.
Will love the rain that’s come, given he’s already won on heavy ground as a two year old, and although contributer looks solid, he hardly sets a terrifying standard.
Impressive in the end but beat very little.. also the fact that no horse has done the chester vase-derby double since shergar, is rather off-putting for epsom.
still a nice little horse
Jesus Harold Christ, you need to engage brain before you type buddy!
Perhaps you’d care to explain why, other than offering gobshite?
Ok – Countrywide Flame has won a third of all races he has ever ran in, including 2 Grade 1’s over the jumps, and he remains just 5yo. If you class this as the form of a "serial loser", I would certainly beg to differ.
As for Doctor Koukash looking as "dodgy as they come", have you got anything to back this ludicrously strange statement up?
Not really, apart from that he looks a typical dodgy arab, but given that you’ve never met the guy I find your willingness to rush to his defence equally strange. Perhaps you have a crush on him?
countrywide flame brave as always, problem is he seems to be becoming one of those serial loser’s at the highest level in sport. always seems to find one or two too good. like the lee westwood of horse racing.
this "DR" marwan koukash or whatever he’s called looks as dodgy as they come. how long before he offers al zarooni a job
Jesus Harold Christ, you need to engage brain before you type buddy!
Perhaps you’d care to explain why, other than offering gobshite?
countrywide flame brave as always, problem is he seems to be becoming one of those serial loser’s at the highest level in sport. always seems to find one or two too good. like the lee westwood of horse racing.
this "DR" marwan koukash or whatever he’s called looks as dodgy as they come. how long before he offers al zarooni a job
