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Dunno about the Chester cup but Hollowina looks a decent price in the fillies race.
Should be plenty of attractive fillies on channel four this week
I know I said dawn approach would not win the guineas, but surely 2.8 on betfair is a crazy price for the derby?
you only have to look at the dams side of the pedigree to see there might be a serious problem with him getting the derby trip. also as pricewise pointed out, he’s hardly likely to be any shorter on the day, plenty to come out and show their hand, there’s bound to be an impressive winner of one of the trials which will shake up the betting…
I think the reason for hot snap’s disappointing display is far more simple- she’s just not that good.
Horrible call by me there- hold my hands up deserve all the abuse I get! got a bit carried away with the dewhurst run but loved him after the coventry. tbf newmarket is more of a grinders track, you don’t want the flashy types. anyway any horse good enough to win the coventry, it’s mad to say they won’t have the pace for the guineas.
least I got hot snap right though was painful to see just the judge chinned- had it each-way but so close!
I recommend to anyone considering backing this beast, to have a look at a video of last year’s Dewhurst.
There is no conceivable way that a horse that slow can win a good-ground Guineas.
I was going to back chris colombo but the cheekpieces have put me right off.. like backing something in a market rasen selling hurdle.
You can look at it two ways EGS.
1) He’s working poorly and the hope is the furries will liven him up on the track.
2) They tried the pieces on at home and he worked the house down.
If the answer is ‘1’, I very much doubt Joseph would be on board.
You forgot to mention C they are desperate
I was going to back chris colombo but the cheekpieces have put me right off.. like backing something in a market rasen selling hurdle.
have no idea what will finish top three in the 2000 but reckon dawn approach is a place-lay.
in the 1000, moth is respected but for me the most solid option is just a judge so i’ve backed her each-way. I CANNOT have her out of the top three.
my place lay for that is hot snap. Think she was overhyped after her nell gywn win.
place laying dawn approach and hot snap? nuts I know!!
In reality i’m far more convinced that dawn approach will be turned over thn toronado.
I’m just not convinced by the horse I never have been.
If hewins i’ll hold m hands up but just can’t see it.
please excuse the terrible grammar m keyboard is in its last legs!
Dawn Approach just doesn’t look good enough to me. I know he has recorded good time figures and is well-regarded, but take a look at the video of the Dewhurst.
Fair enough he doesn’t develop at 3 but based on his two year old career, this is one of the most stupid things that’s been said on this thread, where were you when he routed the second horse on earlier runs?
But even on earlier runs he was prone to a flat spot. That flat spot will do for him on saturday, in my opinion. My feeling is that as a two year old he was just more mature and well-developed than his contemporaries- that may well have vanished by the weekend. We’ll see but i’m increasingly confident he’ll get turned over.
I don’t recall Henrythenavigator receiving widespread attention either and he went around at 12-1.
You haven’t mentioned George Vancouver and neither it seems has anyone. How come? I know the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is chump change compared to other Guineas trials but he won it and won it very easily I thought – and he wasn’t merely beating up on States-based hacks either.
If fast ground materialises on the day I think 16-1 is way too big.
Yeah I agree. Reason I didn’t mention him was because I didn’t realise he was running! 16-1 is huge about a horse that won a breeders cup last time out. Ok you could argue that’s a hypocritical statement given he got beaten in the Dewhurst, a race i’ve already trashed, but the ground was likely noticeably softer then than it will be on saturday.
The more I have analysed this race, the more I am coming to the conclusion that neither of the front two will win. May seem like a strange conclusion to come to given they are both unbeaten, but let me explain.
Dawn Approach just doesn’t look good enough to me. I know he has recorded good time figures and is well-regarded, but take a look at the video of the Dewhurst.
This was a dire group one, yet it took him ages to even get past his extremely limited stablemate. He also looks on the small side on the video and you have to question how much scope he truly has. May I even be as bold to suggest, that he is a place lay? Nuts I know but wouldn’t be the first two year old champion to prove a dud at three.
Toronado looks more solid, but you scratch beneath the surface and he’s never recorded a decent time, and he’s by a horse who was better over further. Could he be a relentless galloper that is vulnerable to something with a turn of speed? I know I was raving about his fractions in the craven, but with the benefit of hindsight that may have had more to do with the fact they went no pace in that and it turned into a sprint.
The like’s of garswood and Moohaajim won’t get home in a horse box and probably aren’t good enough anyway, which leaves you with the O’brien lot.
He’s the most successful trainer in the 2000 guineas in modern times,and for good reason. Ok the vibes about his runners haven’t been overwhelming but does that matter? Colombo I would favour of the two. Mar’s looks like another out and out galloper who may need 10 furlongs. Colombo may have a stamina doubt as well, being by a johannesburg mare, but if he does stay I think he’ll do this lot for toe. Certainly I could see no justification for backing the front two at these awful prices.
judging by the prices on betfair, Rasyemaa will be Weld’s only representative in the race
Interesting article by Nick Mordin in this weeks "Weekender" about how the evidence seems to suggest that two year olds in america and australia are given steroids- on average they are heavier than their counterparts over seas. He also suggests that it’s profitable to back US bred two year olds.
