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What a surprise: oil prices have dropped this morning following the weekend’s ‘good news’ on peace deal, hot on the heels of last week’s ‘bad news’ that the USA were minutes away from resuming hostilities, which of course spiked the oil price.
Sell high last week, buy low today, then issue news in the near future that peace negotiations have stalled, oil rises: sell. Am I right or am I wrong?
Don’t know who I detest more, the seemingly flagrant market manipulation by the Trump cohort or the Commodities Market’s ever-credulous, fickle, lemming-like response to the cohort’s weasel words.
More a Wishy Washy Left of Centre Greenish Nut Job.
I did emphasise the importance of ‘head over heart’ when betting.
I bet only when I perceive there to be an edge (value): the odds of the entity I’m backing is all I’m interested in, not the entity itself.
Couldn’t you have found a 3-1 shot to back in the racing?
Ah, that ethically sound sport racing, rolling in money provided by despotic middle-eastern tyrants, and one in which a not insignificant number of sentient beasts die while providing us with frivolous entertainment and betting opportunities.
I’m hypocritical enough to follow this rather distasteful though great game, and as you contribute to a racing forum presumably you are too.
Ever bet a Godolphin horse? I’m sure your clients in Dubai just love the Maktoums
To no great surprise I wasn’t laid 4.0 but have managed to get on all I wanted at around 3.75, which I’m quite content with.
During the period from circa 10am to 5pm yesterday the odds for Reform collapsed from 3.5+ to around 2.9, as those on Restore drifted out to a more reasonable, though still unattractive 20.0+. Reform are now back out to around 3.0.
So, all my financial speculation completed, I’ll sit back and wait for June 18th, if that has been confirmed as the date of the by-election.
About a week ago I wrote:
Betfair have introduced Restore Britain into the betting, the party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe.
…it could mean Reform will lose votes to them, though I reckon it would be unlikely to be as large as the Labour vote loss to Green.Which – if the betting is a reliable guide – would seem to be wholly incorrect, with Restore around 16/1 on Betfair and sub 10/1 on the books with a (ludicrous?) low of 9/2 with Hills.
Meanwhile the Greens are essentially choose any odds you like above 100/1.
So, in response Labour are now in to ~1/2 and Reform out to ~5/2.
As I believe the odds on Restore are way too short, 5/2 (3.5) Reform strikes me as long, and as head should always dominate heart when betting I’ll be drip-dropping orders on Betfair, initially at a probably too-greedy 4.0.
This list has been unchanged for around 15 years. All have something to offer – vive la difference – but favourite courses are Doncaster, Hexham, Perth and Sandown while the least favourite is Newmwrket Rowley Mile which I found to be rather soulless.
Wouldn’t mind getting to Goodwood, and Fontwell to see the ‘figure of eight’ chase course, though in general I’ve rather lost interest in racegoing.
Aintree
Bath
Beverley
Brighton
Carlisle
Cartmel
Catterick
Cheltenham
Chester
Doncaster
Epsom
Exeter
Haydock
Hexham
Huntingdon
Leicester
Ludlow
Market Rasen
Musselburgh
Newmarket – both
Newton Abbot
Perth
Pontefract
Redcar
Ripon
Sandown
Southwell
Stratford
Thirsk
Wetherby
Worcester
YorkJust one abroad – Longchamp
Betfair have introduced Restore Britain into the betting, the party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe.
As far as I can glean this outfit haven’t yet definitely decided to stand but if they do it could mean Reform will lose votes to them, though I reckon it would be unlikely to be as large as the Labour vote loss to Green.
Assuming the procedure of ‘moving the writ’ for the byelection takes place shortly then it must take place between 21 and 27 working days after this. What a long, long month or so awaits.
Betfair have opened a market on the Makerfield byelection and it’s already quite active with 12 grand matched
The current odds are:
Labour 1.82
Reform 2.28with all the others out in the long grass at 25+
Is Makerfield in the Wigan Metropolitan District Council area that voted last week?
If so, of the 25 seats contested, Labour lost 22 and Reform gained 24.
Josh Simons is the MP who was director of Labour Together, accused of various malpractices, which led to him resigning his junior role in government.
Good luck fighting that seat Andy Burnham…you’ll need it.
Right on cue and rather conveniently Angela Rayner’s tax affairs have been okayed by HMRC, so into the starting blocks she goes?
I have a fair bit of time for Ed Miliband: he was the wrong Miliband back then, perhaps the right one now.
Those bland, if commendable, words on that infamous ‘ed stone’ are as applicable now as when they were carved 10+ years ago.
Farage was among the throng gathered in the Lords for the King’s Speech but did not appear to be in the Commons for the debate, at least for the first couple of hours that I endured.
If Streeting launches a leadership bid I wouldn’t be surprised if Rayner swiftly follows suit, either of her own volition or by persuasion.
Reform are not popular in the Liverpool region
I’m sure you’re aware but for the benefit of others:
Reform came second in Bootle in 2024 with 12% of the vote, admittedly a long way behind Peter Dowd’s 69%, which was down from 79% in 2019. Paul Nuttall – sometime leader of UKIP – also came a poor second to Dowd in 2015 with 11% of the vote.
Which suggests to me that although Bootle would be one of the least hazardous seats for Burnham to contest, it’s not a given he’d win given the swings to Reform last week, notably in not-too-distant St Helens, which to me on the other side of the Pennines would count as being in the ‘Liverpool region’.
I see one of the St Helens MPs has declined to give up her seat for Burnham, which is probably a good thing…for Burnham.
Thanks, I wasn’t aware that a Lutyens-designed cathedral was the original plan. Impressive, and looks like that too was to be built mainly of the local red sandstone.
Bootle Town Hall is a beautiful piece of civic architecture
I’m a great admirer of Victorian civic architecture. I mentioned elsewhere a recent visit to Huddersfield which is chocker with such splendid buildings. Though, like Bootle, the town has become rather shabby.
Wandering away down Off-Topic Lane, what do you think of Liverpool’s cathedrals? I like the Catholic one purely because of its pleasingly unique design but find the Anglican one to be an unwelcoming, rather intimidating vast edifice that attempts to ape the great medieval cathedrals but fails badly. Don’t like the red stone either, though am aware it’s from a local quarry.
It’s the State Opening of a new Parliament tomorrow with the King’s Speech outlining what the government’s plans will be.
If Starmer were to resign today wouldn’t this render the speech if not null and void then largely pointless?
I’ve no idea what the rules and regs are if a PM resigns on the eve of a State Opening and I rather doubt it’s happened before.
But given the likely turmoil immediate resignation would cause I think it more likely Starmer will continue as PM for a while, maybe announcing today a date for departure in the near future.
Perhaps the King will just have a sheet of A5 vellum in his hand with the no more than the phrase ‘fk knows’ on it, writ large in big bold beautiful Times New Roman.
The only part of the country that has fallen for Farage’s nonsense is those who are under privileged and poor.
The 6 County Councils that voted – Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Hampshire, West Sussex and East Sussex – all broadly in the well-to-do southeast were all lost by the Conservatives thanks to large gains by Reform: sufficiently large in Suffolk and Essex for Reform to gain control, and the others to NOC.
Which rather puts paid to the idea that Reform only figured in areas that are ‘under privileged and poor’
