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Desert Island Flicks in no particular order:
The Man Who Would Be King<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073341/
Casablanca<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0034583/
Brief Encounter<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0037558/
Far trom the Madding Crowd<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0061648/
The Italian Job<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064505/
Get Carter<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067128/
If…<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0063850/
North by Northwest<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053125/
Bubbling under and the token post ’70s effort to prove I’ve had at least one night out since then:
The Shining<br>http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0081505/
Other than those I could quite happily slip into senility accompanied by nothing more than Carry On films and the Ealing Comedies: Carry on up the Khyber and The Man in the White Suit my favs.
Quote: from jackane24 on 4:52 pm on May 14, 2006[
I don’t understand your argument DJ. All of the above lost as I said they would do, and with the exception of Hazeymm, they were all 3/1 or less, a perfect lay.
They were all fav or 2nd with the exception of Hazeymm, so DJ, I REALLY don’t understand your argument.
Jackane
I think what DJ means is that laying the odds is the reverse of betting them i.e laying at 7/1 has the same downside as betting at 1/7. A lay-stake of £10 at 7/1 has an upside of £10 and a downside of £70; a bet-stake of £70 at 1/7 also has an upside of £10 and a downside of £70.
So if you’re laying just one horse in a race (as opposed to trading or bookmaking) it makes as little sense laying it at 7/1 as it does betting at 1/7; the risk (downside) is out of all proportion to the reward (upside). In practice I’m sure you had no intention of laying at 7/1 (may well have justified a bet at those odds) anyway but DJ’s point is well made.
There’s many on here more qualified than I to discuss laying as I don’t walk that road; but nonetheless I’d recommend you emulate EC and concentrate on finding poor value favs at 2/1 or less where the risk/reward ratio is more balanced for laying purposes and look at the longer shots to bet.
As for these so-called ‘tipping’ threads well I’ve no problem with them as long as they’re accompanied by reasoning. I’m only interested to read what informed folk on this forum make of a horse and couldn’t give two hoots whether it wins or loses.
I haven’t had a bet on the Flat since last October but come the Royal Meeting and beyond I may join the melee and inflict my selections on the forum, here or wherver the powers that be decide they want them.<br>
Quote: from Grasshopper on 8:34 pm on May 10, 2006
The Flat = big business – it’s a plaything of the money-men.
The ‘big business’ aspect of the Flat is a turn-off for me too but ’twas ever the case really and the sport can still be enjoyed for it’s own sake; the ‘business’ side of it is no more than superficial froth to Joe Punter and Jill Racegoer so can easily be ignored.
The current ‘americanisation’ of it with speed being seen as a virtue and stamina as an evil – from a stud value point of view – should concern all as it seems to me to be detrimental to the robustness of the breed causing a decline in both skeletal and cardiovascular strength. It would also appear to me – as a layman – that the bloodlines and therefore the gene pool are becoming less diverse; over-zealous breeding to produce one type of horse e.g milers only leads to the ill-health and mental problems associated with inbreeding: the ‘bad’ characteristics of a bloodline tend to become amplified at the expense of the ‘good’.
Presumably that lunatic One Cool Cat is now at stud passing on his temperament to another generation?
Will George Washington remain tractable? No matter a place at stud beckons regardless.
Flat oval tracks or ‘across the flat’ at Newmarket may be deemed fairer tests of a horse as none can have the excuse of not acting on them but the contours and cambers of Epsom provide a great test of a young horse’s atheticism and balance, as well as jockeyship. The ‘complete’ racehorse should be able to adapt and show it’s form under a variety of circumstances in my opinion.
I would agree that Epsom should be a one-off test for 3yos prior to the acid test of their mettle and ability taking on their elders in the all-aged ‘championships’ on conventional tracks later in the season; but the Derby and Oaks remain a valuable education and above all a terrific spectacle.
Cheltenham and Sandown have their idiosyncrasies but I doubt any NH follower would say that championship events shouldn’t be run there.
Fine card at Kelso tomorrow Grasshopper; my heart is there; my head at Chester and York.
I’m an INTJ too, which was no surprise.
Introverted Intuitive Thinking Judging<br>Strength of the preferences %<br>89 38 100 44
very expressed introvert<br>moderately expressed intuitive personality<br>very expressed thinking personality<br>moderately expressed judging personality
Other INTJ’s include Hannibal, Donald Rumsfeld and Arnold Schwarzenegger…eek!
An interesting little experiment actually. No idea what percentage of the population at large are INTJ but perhaps punters/racegoers attract an inordinate number of those with an introverted, intuitive, thinking, judging personality. Makes some sense to me.
Dai Burchell’s Cartmel specialist Flahives First who’s been responsible for promoting the Whit and August meetings from enjoyable to great on several occasions.
Sue Bradburne’s late-lamented Chergan who was a superb, straight jumper of fences and did me a favour at Wetherby and Donny on the two occasions I saw him in the flesh.
Barmy old Robbo who ran his usual race at Kelso the other day – tailed off then staying on to be placed.
Edit: Better add Walcot Lad as well cos he keeps getting the better of me; I’ll be opposing him again this aft!
(Edited by Drone at 8:40 am on April 11, 2006)
Quote: from stevedvg on 8:29 pm on Mar. 30, 2006[br]
That’s because England isn’t a real ****<br>ing country, you dolt!
I can’t put "Scottish" on my passport, my friend from southern Germany can’t put "Bavarian" and the girl I know in Barcelona can’t put "Catalan".
Why?
Because Scotland, Bavaria and Catalunya aren’t countries.
They’re just part of countries. And England’s the same.
Agreed so that being the case:
Does anyone know why England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are allowed to field separate teams in football and rugby internationals?
Perhaps Bavaria and Catalonia should approach FIFA
<br>Edit: Dunno why that’s appeared in italics
(Edited by Drone at 10:05 pm on April 7, 2006)
The one time I saw Mark Coton interviewed on TV he struck me as having a cerebral, thoughtful, somewhat sensitive nature to his character and as such perhaps not best able to deal with the psychological roller-coaster that punting – and losing runs in particular – inevitably entails. That’s not denigrating him in any way (such a nature is admirable in many ways) but a thick skin and ‘water off a duck’s back’ attitude to reversals are every bit as important to a punter as a proven ‘paper’ method of beating the books. Wagering your methods is the acid test.
His books, and his stint on the RP, were excellent and innovative.
Perhaps the Sportsman will dig him out.
Miss Meggy’s race was a conditions (listed) event i.e at the weights a greater range of ratings/abilities on show, so in such races the draw is likely to be of less significance than in a handicap.
Exaggerating to prove a point: If Dayjur was drawn 1 in a 5f conditions sprint at Bev up against 19 handicappers you’d still expect him to be an odds-on shot.
What were his ‘rules’ Steve?
Got a lot of time for Dave N, if I’d known he was on it would have been darjeeling and toast at 8 not 9
The straight at Newcastle is on the rise but not so stiff as the likes of Beverley or Carlisle
Chester is a stamina test because horses have little opportunity to change their lead leg, being on the near-fore most of the time
On the round course at Beverley the stiff finish of the home straight is amelioratred to an extent by the downhill bend out of the back straight. Jockeys such as Darley who know the track well will rein back their horse for a breather from approx the 7f pole before the stamina test resumes on the turn into the home straight
In 7f races it’s not unusual to see horses become unbalanced and go wide on the turn out of the back, paticularly those drawn badly (low) who go hell for leather from flag drop trying to secure a position near the inside rail. Hence the significant draw advantage horses drawn high have, especially habitual front runners.
Don’t bother trying to form an idea of course configuration from two dimensional TV pictures; camera angles and height above the ground mislead.
The RP’s course maps are useful.
FSL
The last thing I want is my tissue agreeing with the RP forecast. Just as I dislike Pricewise, Trading Post ‘pinching’ my value bets.
Where didya get that pic of me:)
Proven Punter – long term winner<br>Professional Punter – long term winner whose winnings account for all or the majority of income
Not a lot of difference other than the Pro needs balls of steel, a hefty bank and an understanding family or preferably no family/dependents.
The strategies of both are worthy of respect, it matters not whether you bet in ponies or monkees.
There seemed to be a deal of surprise when Betfair let it be known that less than 1% of their clients made more than 15K per year; it didn’t surprise me at all, what would be far more representative is the percentage who make upto15K.
No wish to be a ‘professional’ myself despite being in the fortunate position of being able to devote as much time as I wish to racing/punting; it would bore me as much as anything and in truth think my punting would suffer with having the added burden of knowing it’s outcome has to put bread on the table (or not). Stress is inversely proportional to success.
Betlarge and Carvillshill have it spot on.
My ‘rules’ also include:<br>Compiling a tissue to determine value (the golden rule)<br>Level stakes adjusted annually to 2% of available bank<br>Win singles only<br>Frequently betting two or more runners in a race, particularly against a weak fav who ‘makes the market'<br>Specialisation – knowing what type of race you’re good/bad at interpreting<br>Eyes open ears closed
AS for the actual methods of race analysis employed by a succesful punter I doubt any one punter works in the same way as another. All that matters is the method that works for you: keep it close to yor chest.
Finally always remember the learning curve is long and hard – twenty years in my case – though those lucky souls entering the fray now have never had it so good.
(Edited by Drone at 11:20 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)
Rarely buy any racing papers but I’ll give The Sportsman a gander tomorrow. It’ll be added to my collection of first editions.
Keen to see who they’ve recruited and just how much coverage Racing will be getting.
Quote: from EC on 5:39 pm on Mar. 20,
Good trainers make sure their horses can jump well enough to compete in races they take part in. They also show patience when it is clear a horse is not jumping as well it should be.
<br>Venetia Williams, Misty Dancer, 3.40 Hereford. Just a shame he was short-headed
Quote: from ratcliff on 6:38 pm on Mar. 18, 2006[br]
<br>Improvements to hurdles with padding or different styles should be acted upon , I notice there was an issue with the long distance amateurs novice chase – scrap it . Show that racing is listening to the critics and progressing <br>
Brush hurdles do appeal as a move in the right direction, though I guess there may be cost concerns for the smaller tracks as well as portabilty problems e.g quick removal in order to stage bumpers.
I regard hurdling as primarily a speed test with the hurdles being there to test a horse’s abilty to ‘leap’ rather than ‘jump’ and a test of the horse’s skill/balance in maintaining a fluent gallop on landing. That existing hurdles can trip a horse is counter-productive to the essence of what true hurdling should be about, in my view anyway.
The amateur novice chase is something of an anomaly, much more so than the Foxhunters, and I certainly wouldn’t lose any sleep if it was scrapped. As someone mentined an open conditions event over the trip would be a nice idea – Ossmoses at Chelters would be quite a sight.
(Edited by Drone at 11:22 pm on Mar. 19, 2006)
Agree with the concerns raised over the quality of day 3.
Personally I’d replace the 21f novice handicap chase with a Grade 1 21f novice chase as an alternative to the Arkle and RSA. As the blessed Henrietta pointed out before the Arkle such a race would have been ideal for Racing Demon; and for trainers not keen to give young staying chasers a hard – by reputation – race in the RSA.
I’d name it the Mill House Novices’ Chase in deference to he who chased himself.
This along with the aforementioned promotion of the Ryanair Chase to Grade 1 would then mean three ‘championship’ events to open day 3.
Presumably the Ryanair was given only Grade 2 status in order to maintain the Melling Chase at Aintree as the premier event over the trip. So I guess there may be some problems with the NH ‘pattern’ should it be upgraded. Anyway here’s hoping.
