Forum Replies Created
- Posts
This is all good news I would say, albeit probably take a bit of getting used fancying low drawn horses at Beverley! It is logical though. The weirdest thing will probably be straight races where the draw has now flipped over (ie Ascot). Horses drawn high used to be far side and will now be on the stands rail.
The starting stall rule changes are also good – cant remember name of horse but I suffered from one where jockey stayed in the stall at Newbury last season (may have been a horse of Ralph Beckett if memory serves).
Hats off Robert, this is terrific stuff. I hope you went for the doubles too!
Its not the winner finding that is great (and its been great) its the race reading, form reading and general understanding you provide. Keep up the good work!!
Doug
Off to a good start…Only Dansili Dancer placed – 2nd @ 4-1.
Staked: £12.60
Return: £0.21Balance (£12.39)
For a Saturday, I have to say todays racing is at best sub-standard. Perhaps its because this weekend signifies the change from National Hunt racing to Flat racing. The Dubai World cup meeting looks excellent from a spectacle point of view but not from a punting perspective. I have no handle on many of the horses, the form or the trainers even. So I’ll stick to the home action for a 1pt e/w Lucky 63 this weekend (bet placed with Best Odds Guaranteed).
Wistow 2.50 Newbury (14-1)
Has come back from an extended absence in good form, improving for a step up in trip. Todays race is a slight drop in trip but I felt horses were finishing very tired yesterday at Newbury so with a good gallop looking likely here, horses will need to be able to see out the trip up the long straight. Trainer is in good form and although there is plenty dangers, the fact Nicky Henderson is saddling 4 makes me think neither are strongly fancied.Dansili Dancer 3.10 Lingfield (11-2)
Quite a weak Group 3 race but nonetheless interesting. Dansili Dancer has plenty going for him. He has a great record on an AW surface, trainer is in good form and goes well fresh. Nideeb looks underpriced and is worth taking on after a break while Pachattacks style of racing is better suited to courses with a long home straight where there is plenty time to repel finishers – not something that is easily done at Lingfield. As long as the pace is sound (hopefully Pachattack will oblige) then Dansili Dancer has solid credentials.Theatre Dance 3.25 Newbury (6-1)
Tricky race to solve on the face of it but one where I have a fancy for Theatre Dance anyway! He was favourite for a similar type contest at Sandown last time but got behind before running on again to finish 3rd. The application of first time visors can hopefully invigorate him enough to be in touch as they leave the back straight and he looks sure to be staying on up the straight. Trainer is in good form and on a line through Maktu is reasonably handicapped. Ogeee hasn’t quite looked as good this year as last and many of the others are inconsistent. Theatre Dance’s 9 placings from 19 outings is reasonable and hopefully the consistency will be rewarded.The Wee Chief 4.10 Kempton (9-1)
A race where most of the runners are fully exposed and have been running with great credit all winter but subsequently dont have much in hand of the handicapper. The exception is the The Wee Chief. He has a course and distance win, has an apprentice taking a handy 5lbs off and he has won off an absence in the past. Enough reasons to make him a selection today.William Hogarth 4.20 Bangor (11-1)
A bit of a risky selection as everyone knows he can be a monkey but William Hogarth does have a decent level of ability. He has run well on both recent starts and will definitely be staying on when others have had enough. I think the return to a sound surface will suit (as when he won at Chepstow in the autumn). I thought Wolf Moon was a danger but his price reflects his chance while many of the others are either too high in the handicap following victorys (Stagecoach Opal/Cloudy Spirit/Pie at Midnight) or have a bit to prove following layoffs (Larks Lad/Liberate).Titan Triumph 5.20 Lingfield (5-1)
The selection was in good form prior to his last run where he never really got into the race over course and distance. With Dens Gift and Veroon not against making the running hopefully the pace will be reasonable and Titan Triumph can swoop late to collar these.I think Kickback is referring to the possibility you and Tipsterform are trying to encourage internet browser traffic through the Tipsterform website rather than innocently talking about the form of Pricewise Extra tipsters – to boost "hits" for example.
I am sure he has just got the wrong end of the stick though.
The ultra consistent Kalahari King is another to add into the mix. Beat all bar Albertas Run in the Ryanair so he’d have to enter calculations.
With the ground looking like it might be on the good side, I cant see Master Minded winning – he just doesn’t seem to be as good without cut in the ground.
Khyber Kim just doesn’t look like the same horse as last year and hard to see a repeat win. Peddlers Cross will probably run here and will have a good chance but would need to see how the opposition shapes up. Binocular may wait for Punchestown, Oscar Whisky is a possible and at a bigger price, Celestial Halo has had his confidence restored this spring following the unsuccessful chasing career in the autumn.
Two horses I’d like to see running in this are Big Bucks and Quevega. Willie Mullins did mention the race as a possible for Quevega in the aftermath of the Mares Hurdle and given how well Big Bucks did in a slow run 3m race at the festival, a drop to 2m 4f cant be out of the question.
I would guess a small but select field will turn up on the day, could be a race to watch more than ppunt in though.
Hope it remains midweek as it makes it like a holiday that you have to schedule which is part of the fun – dedicating time to it.
Zip
Agree with the general consensus of 4 days being enough, but really do wish it was run Wednesday to Saturday. This would mean I have to use less annual leave, like most of the country, in order to watch the full Festival live (or hopefully go to the Festival).
Of the existing races, I’d happily do away with the Cross Country, Mares Hurdle, Conditionals Hurdle, Bumper.
Or alternatively, why not run these lesser races all on day one as a sort of prelude. It would be a decent card but also one that people could take or leave.
Then again if the festival lasted 7 days I’d still be there glued to it all!
I am hoping Wishfull Thinking comes here as opposed to the Jewson although I have not heard whether this will happen or not. He jumped like a true pro at the track on trials day and stayed on well to beat very season handicappers like Calgary Bay quite readily. He travelled very well and having only had very few races in his career (despite being 8yo) I think there is plenty of improvement. He is general 16-1 for this but is shorter for the Jewson at about 8-1.
However Time For Rupert looks like very good horse and I think its a case of whatever beats him wins the race.
A tiny sample, I know, but in a race where there is no real collateral form, no worthwhile speed ratings and with lack of stable information (on my part) I honestly believe this is quite a good approach and I will be employing it again this year.
Agree with this sort approach for the Bumper. There is generally no collateral form so best to watch the races and decide from there.
Ericht, Keys and Knight Pass are the 3 to concentrate on from what I have seen. I dont see much Irish racing and therefore cant possibly put up an irish contender. Granted all 3 are pretty much at the head of the market but all have impressed. As an each way multiple punter these three will all feature in my permutations for the festival.
Sorry not a criticism as such, more a case of thinking through which race you are tipping in.
Good luck though as its very difficult to give tips on the day never mind 2/3 days in advance (with the exception of TAPK of course)!
Finding winners days in advance isn’t easy (establishing who will even run is difficult enough). However, Binocular and Oscar Whiskey?
Must be able to come up with something better than a couple of long odds on shots – I think we all knew days ago that these two would be long odds on.
I think it adds to the season, the sense of hype and anticipation, that the main protagonists do not clash until Cheltenham. Granted, it might be good to see these star names a bit more but can you seriously justify running some of the faster, better ground horses on the bog like surfaces we have had in the past few winters? Could have completely bottomed out some unfurnished novices.
Granted the season being geared around Cheltenham isn’t for everyone…but I love it. And you get plenty of top class action along the way. You can see jumpers appearing in novice hurdles and follow there careers for years. Jump racing is very much a case of seeing which horses develop from Bumpers to Gold Cups/Champ Hurdles. Its following horses for years not just one 3yo season like the flat.
For excitement, for joy, for tears even, Jump racing builds it over years – you cant look at one season in isolation – like with flat horses.
Although I can understand Midnight Court’s connections missing this. Lose in this and the Gold Cup dream is over – dont run in this and the dream lives on.
This aint a punting race for me, though having backed Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert for the Gold Cup a big run from either will do. Time For Rupert looks like a horse going places. His jumping has been good for a novice and he definitely appears to have the scope for improvement. He didn’t stop improving over hurdles and is very much on an upward curve. Tidal Bay is a bit of a monkey, often dropping out then coming home like a train. Check the Ryanair two years ago or last years World Hurdle and I can understand connections thinking Gold Cup.
For Saturday I hope Time For Rupert wins, for me he is the one of the younger brigade that I can see shaking up the big boys come March.
The young lad has impressed me so far and notable that his big race winners have been on horses ridden handy to the pace. Hello Bud and Little Josh were winners in races where arguably Paddy had just has much chance of being on the winner (ie Irish Raptor and Pigeon Island).
That said, I guess Paddy might be a little upset to have missed out on rides where there was only one contender from the yard in the race. I guess with STD’s (thats Sam Twiston Davies not Sexually Transmitted Diseases) suspensions looming then Paddy wont be too disheartened at getting the leg up on Little Josh!
Paddy always strikes me as having a good relationship with his boss so I cant imagine anything changing there in the course of the next few years.
