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Doug’s Tips

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  • #12756
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    This is going to be my 3rd attempt at one of these threads, hopefully learning the lessons of my previous threads and trying to land a profit. All selections will be singles (win or each way) to a stated stake. Chances are I will have selections everyday but not necessarily. Unlike in my previous threads I will post reasonings for my selections which should also help me in focusing my own mind. I think I was falling into the trap of selecting runners who had an obvious chance but were priced accordingly. Thus backing 5-1 or 10-1 chances who probably did have that chance of winning. Hopefully I aint boring too many of you with my repeated posting of selections lol! :lol:

    Monday 28th September

    Silent Hero – 5.00 Wolver (1/2pt each way @ 12-1).
    A few positives here including all wins being over 7f and Michael Jarvis being in good form of late. Horse seems better on all weather surface (probably best at Southwell to be fair, but does have Wolves form) but ran well at Epsom off a 40+ day break last time and might just be able to outrun his odds. One or too of these opponents seem to have started at odds shorter than form might merit in the past and none of them are all that reliable.

    Result = 3rd @ 17-2. Profit c/f = 0.7pts

    #250868
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Wednesday 30th September

    Viviani 1.25 Salisbury (1/2pt each way @ SP)

    I will post this one up tonight as I dont think I will have a chance before off time tomorrow. A 300,000 Guineas purchase he wasn’t unfancied on Debut at Newbury where he was backed from 14-1 into 8-1 before running well down the field. Admittedly this was a pretty poor start to his racing career but he can only improve. Amanda Perrett juveniles have been pretty hit and miss this season but had a really good 2nd time out record with 2yos last year and also boasts a better than average record at Salisbury this year, winning 5 from 19 (26%) in 2009. This gives enough hope to warrant a small interest at what could be decent odds.

    Result – Unplaced

    Twilight Memory 4.00 Nottingham (1pt win @ 7-1)

    A horse with a similar profile to one above ie was not unfancied before debut (4th favourite) but was always down the field. The experience should have done the filly well and Brian Meehan and Martin Dwyer have teamed up to good effect this season. In terms of the opposition (looks like a weak maiden), the dangers would appear to be Michievous Spirit and Bint Almatar. Both would have obvious claims but at the odds I’m happy to take a chance on Twilight Memory.

    Result – Unplaced

    Loss c/f = 1.3pts

    #251277
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Friday 2nd October

    Misheer 2.30 Newmarket (1/2pt each way @ 12-1)

    The form of her Cherry Hinto win is solid with Habayyib and Lady Darshaan filling 2nd and 3rd and I am prepared to forgive the disappointing run over 5f at Donny last time. If Misheer hadn’t run at Donny she would be at least half the odds available here and is worth an each way investment in what I think is a more open race than the market indicates.

    Result = 2nd @ 9-1. Returns = 1.7pts

    Doris’s Gift 4.00 Hexham (1/2pt each way @ 8-1)

    The horse was reasonably well fancied in the market last time out at Segefield when sent off at 7-2 2nd favourite. Doris’s Gift was hampered early on in the race and his confidence seemed to suffer. He was quickly behind and pulled up having never really been in the race. It could be that fences are not really his cup of tea but there are positives. The horse is at the foot of the handicap and 19lb lower in the handicap than for her win over hurdles here back in May. If he can get out over the first few fences safely and build confidence then there is every hope of a big run.

    Result = Unplaced

    Good Buy Dubai 5.35 Lingfield (1/2pt each way @ 7-1)

    This is a more speculative selection but is not without foundation. The horse ran numerous solid efforts back in the spring time, including around here. Having been given a break after a disappointing effort at Kempton last time, he might just be capable of another bold show. This is a wide open contest consisting of largely disappointing types and if Good Buy Dubai has benefitted from his 3 month holiday it would be disappointing if he is not in the shake up as they dash for the line.

    Result = Unplaced

    Loss c/f = 2.6pts.

    #251358
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Doug

    I must say I was amazed when I looked at your Lucky 15s a couple of weeks ago, and you were still holding your head above water.

    I think that was a brilliant effort when so many of the prices were SP.

    I actually started trying to work out what the result would have been at level stakes instead. Now that I know the thread is finished, and the weekend is coming up, I’ll try to finish that off in the next couple of days.

    #251733
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Thanks Gerald, I do like my Lucky 15’s but I was making mistakes. I think it will show a level stakes loss but thanks for working that out for me.

    Sunday 4th October

    Conduit 3.15 Longchamp (1pt win @ 4-1 – betting without STS)
    Youmzain 3.15 Longchamp (1pt win @ 6-1 – betting without STS)

    Not a market I normally look at but one that interests me today. Ballydoyle are going to try and test out STS’s stamina for there own Fame and Glory (fav in market without STS) and that wont just help F&G it will help Youmzain and Conduit, both guaranteed stayers with proven Group 1 form. In Youmzains case he has finished 2nd in this race twice before!

    Given that the ground is on the fast side, I dont think that suits F&G as much as Youmzain and Conduit and think they will finish off to good effect. I can see Fame and Glory challenging Sea The Stars first, being put in his place and being passed by Youmzain or Conduit in the last furlong. Of course, no one can know how the race will pan out, but I am trying!

    Of the others, the fillies Stacelita and Dar Re Mi are respected. Stacelita is good but dont think a true run mile and a half will suit while Dar Re Mi could just be a touch one paced, although the fast pace will suit. Vision D’Etat is another I fear but on a line through Tartan Bearer cant see him beating Conduit.

    Furthermore Conduit and Youmzain are the only 2 horses I can see beating STS in the race proper. Although i actually hope the dont…I want STS to be confirmed a true great, the best of my lifetime.

    Result – Youmzain 2nd (to Sea The Stars) – Win Returns 7pts

    Profit c/f = 2.4pts

    #251941
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Monday 5th October

    Aggravation 2.30 Windsor (@ 7-1)
    Lava Lamp 2.40 Pontefract (@ 5-1)
    (1/2pt each way Double)

    Some decent racing for a Monday today but not a great deal of betting opportunities with lots of small fields and maiden races. So today its down the each way double route.

    Aggravation has dropped to as low a mark (62) as he has been for over 2 years and is now 7lb lower than his last winning mark. He hasn’t won since June 2007 but has had numerous placed efforts that have kept his handicap mark high. Having now been given some respite from the handicapper and returning to his favourite course and distance (has won 3 and been placed in a further 3 Course and Distance Handicaps) there is cause for optimism. Jimmy Fortune is a positive booking and he should at least give a reasonable running, hopefully getting in the places if not winning.

    Lava Lamp is no superstar but he has run with reasonable credit on all starts to date. Last time, dropped back to 6f, he ran on well late in the day to grab 3rd, a finishing position that looked unlikely 2f out. Hopefully the stiff Pontefract finish can help those in front come back today and he can be rewarded for some consitent efforts.

    Result = Both Unplaced.

    Profit c/f = 1.4pts

    #252135
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Tuesday 6th October

    Gower Valentine 4.40 Leicester (1/2pt each way @ SP)

    The horse has dropped a long way in the weights this season after a couple of good runs as a 2yo. Last season she won a Glorious Goodwood maiden and was beaten only 5lengths behind Penny’s Gift in the valuable sales race at Ascot last season. This season has been pretty poor but following a mid summer break she showed a touch more sparkle in finishing 4th at Thirsk last time out. If she can progress again she will be in with a good each way chance in this fillies contest.

    Result = 2nd @ 7-1. Returns 1.2pts

    Marie De Medici 2.10 Leicester (@ 6-1)
    Princess Lexi 3.30 Catterick (@ 7-1)
    (1/2pt each way double @ noted odds)

    A lot of backend 2yo maidens and nurseries at this time of year so I am going to attempt a few doubles in such events in the forthcoming month.
    Marie De Medici has obvious each way claims on her 3rd in a decent maiden at Yourk last time out. She has been off for a few months since then and that wont have done her any harm. There are a couple of other obvious contenders in Eleanora Duse and Faithful One but there isn’t much in the race beyond that for it being a 16 runner race (obviously a newcomer could be anything though).

    Result = WON @ 5-1

    Princess Lexi had a nice introduction at Haydock a couple of weeks ago behind another Hannon 2yo. She ran well considering she was green and seemed to ge getting the hang of things late on staying on nicely for 5th. She is down a furlong here which should be ok with that initial experience behind her. There are a lot of exposed types in this race and having had only the one run Princess Lexi is open to more improvement than some.

    Result = Unplaced

    Profit c/f = 0.6pts

    #252282
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Wednesday 7th October

    Flashy Photon 5.40 Nottingham (1/2pt each way – 12-1)

    Bet will only be placed if first two races on card suggest high draw is advantageous. Bet placed.

    This may well reduce the odds by time bet is placed but its a chance I am willing to take to try and ensure horse is best placed to have a chance of winning. Flashy Photon is racing off a career low mark and has been dropped 3lb after each of her last 2 runs. 2 starts ago Flashy Photon ran reasonably well in 4th behind runaway winner Getcarter at Salisbury. That is the run that draws me to the horse today. Last time out Flashy Photon was slowly away and was never really in the race, a run probably best ignored. The horse won its maiden on Good to Soft ground so the rain isn’t a negative and the Candy/Scott combination have been ticking over nicely all season, including a winner at Leicester yesterday.

    I was tempted by one or two elsewhere but not enough to get involved.

    Result = Unplaced

    Loss c/f = 0.4pts

    #252442
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Thursday 8th October

    A few bets for today:-

    Natural Flair 3.20 Newbury (1/2pt each way @ 14-1)

    The filly won a course and distance maiden in the spring on rain softened ground so a return to this track with some give underground is a major positive. Another positive is the large field. If you ignore all her runs in races of 8 runners or less she has a reasonable profile, one that should be upto competing in this race. The reason for this is she can be keen and a bigger field often goes faster and can help her to settle better. She ran well at Goodwood on her penultimate start and a repeat of that run back against fillies should see her in with a shout.

    Result = WON @ 16-1. Returns = 9.75pts

    Wizard of Edge 3.35 Wincanton (1/2pt each way @ 16-1)

    A bit of a character this one, more often than not he doesn’t complete his races. However, there is no doubting some ability is there. His winning tends to be done on sharpish right handed tracks like Taunton and Wincanton – todays track. Aidan Coleman is 1 from 2 on the horse (3rd on other run) and is back in the saddle today. If the horse is in a going mood, and is ready after his break, then 16-1 is a big price.

    Result = Unplaced (4th by a short head, c’est la vie)

    Whitcombe Spirit 5.35 Newbury (1/2pt each way @ SP)

    I am hoping he might be around 7-1 or 8-1 at the off and think that would represent a good each way bet for a consistent type who handles cut from a stable that does well with its stayers. He might actually want a longer trip than the 2m around here but I am hoping some of these apprentice riders go a stride too quick and his stamina can come into play at the end under Martin Lane. The combination were just denied at Newcastle last time out and a repeat here should see him placed.

    Result = 3rd @ 5-1. Returns = 1pt.

    Block Party 9.00 Kempton (1/2pt each way @ 7-1)

    The horse ran a lot better than 7th place would indicate on his last start at Newbury where he was beaten just under 2 lengths despite finishing 7th. He was actually the stable first string in that race (according to the market) going off at 3-1. That looked a decent race and he ought to be competitve here. He has a good draw in stall 12 here and the step back up to a mile looks like it will suit. Roger Charlton has been a reasonable form of late also.

    Result = 2nd @ 6-1. Returns = 1.37pts. Touch unlucky – next time!

    Itlaaq 8.30 Kempton (1pt each way @ 4-1 – best odds guaranteed)

    Won well at Goodwood in late May and was given too much to do last time out at Goodwood, although that was excusable given the fog and mist that day! Those who raced handy had a definite advantage and Itlaaq passed a lot of horses in the straight to be 5th. A really eyecatching run. I was hoping for a price bigger than 4-1 but still feel its a good each way bet at those odds as really think he will get placed at worst. I think he’d be the type who could go well in a late season handicap like the Novemeber handicap and feel he’d have to be winning this to getting into that sort of race with a chance. Of his rivals Tripitaka is unexposed but would need to be fully wound up for this and some of the others like Calaloo and Going For Gold seem a bit one-paced. I am hopeful this evening for Itlaaq.

    Result = 2nd @ 5-2. Returns = 1.8pts

    Total bet on day = 6pts
    Total Return on day = 13.92pts
    Profit on day = 7.92pts

    Profit c/f = 7.52pts

    #252563
    Pompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    Well done today Doug….nice work

    http://www.sherv.net/cm/emo/dancing/egyptian.gif

    #252614
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Cheers Pompete. I’ll keep trying to find the winners!

    Selections Friday 9th October

    Silver Rime 3.20 York (1/2pt each way @ 12-1)

    Travelled very well over a mile at Ayr last time before encountering trouble and running on to finish 3rd, so the drop to 7f should be fine. The winner has since won again so the form is quite again. Silver Rime has been progressive all season for Amanda Perrett and wont mind if the Knavesmire has any cut underfoot. He had a good start to his 3yo career winning off a mark 1lb higher than he is today and Paul Hanagan knows York as well as any jockey so at 12-1 he should give a good run. Felday is the obvious danger but I am not convinced he will see out a helter skelter 7f, even at a quick track like York.

    Result = Unplaced (got Felday badly wrong lol)

    Abbey Minster 3.05 Carlisle (1/2pt each way @ 9-1)

    A wide open Novice handicap but Abbey Minster looks like he stays all day based on his last 2 runs of last season and he will relish the Carlisle hill when others have had enough. Chris Grant has had a couple of horses placed this season (one win and a 2nd) and both were, like Abbey Minster today, partnered by Richie McGrath. Its a chancey bet taking fitness on trust but he has sound each way claims nonetheless.

    Result = Unplaced

    Diriculous 4.05 Lingfield (1/2pt each way @ 12-1)

    Ran reasonably well behind runaway winner over CD last time out and this race looks slightly less competitive. Diriculous was well backed last day, granted this was partly Fallon factor, but Jimmy Fortune is not a bad alternative and has combined to reasonable effect with Terry Mills horses of late. Diriculous has dropped to a mark only 2 pounds higher than his last winning mark at Great Leighs last August and provided he breaks well and the gaps come in the straight he could outrun his odds.

    Result = Unplaced

    Dayia 6.20 Wolverhampton (1/2pt each way @ 10-1)

    Much of these have been in good form of late but have consequently gone up in the weights. Dayia was a good bumper filly and has a decent record on the all weather. She stays well and arguably ran her best ever race in May when 5th to Hits Only Vic at Haydock. That is reasonable form and should give her a chance in todays race. J Pearce has had a lot of horses run well at big prices this autumn and I am hoping this will be another.

    Result = WON @ 14-1 (Wish I’d taken SP!)

    Total Bet on day = 4pts
    Total Return on day = 7pts
    Profit on day = 3pts

    Profit c/f = 10.52pts

    #252740
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Selections Saturday 10th October

    Splendorinthegrass 2.05 York (1/2pt each way @ 8-1)

    There are a couple things that draw me to this hore today. Firstly his form is decent and he ran well over 7f in a similar race at Newmarket last time out where he ran keen and ran out of puff up the hill. Secondly he is only a 3yo and open to improvement (similar to yesterdays winner Felday). Thirdly the trainer is in good form and the horse is the only ride on the card for Seb Sanders. Basically the horse has an obvious chance here.

    Result = Unplaced

    French Saulaie 2.30 Chepstow (1/2pt each way @ 11-1)

    Comes from last seasons winning stable/jockey combination. Has dropped a long way in the weights having been trying (and failing) to cut it over fences for 2 years now. Prior to going fencing he ran numerous good races over hurdles including in the County hurdle at the festival a couple of years back. He likes top of the ground and big fields. The only negative is the trip might be further than ideal but if he settles he could come back to form following his summer holidays.

    Result = Unplaced

    Pevensey 3.30 Ascot (1/2pt each way @ 11-1)

    Has run well at Ascot previously, his record here reads 41610042 with the last 2nd being in this very race last year. He comes here on back of a nice win at Catterick and has the talented 7lb claimer Ian Brennan on board. He is a hold up performer and will need the breaks in the straight but the pace in the race should be good and gives him a chance. Trainer is in excellent form at present and only adds to the list of positives for the horse.

    Result = 4th @ 11-1. Returns = 1.88pts

    Full Speed 5.30 York (1/2pt each way @ 14-1)

    A more speculative selection than the other 3. He has course form and had looked to be coming back to form at Doncaster 2 starts back. He was a touch disappointing at Catterick last time (behind Pevensey) although I will forgive that. He might just prefer a flat track and with the trainer in great form I will give him a chance today in an open contest.

    Result = Unplaced

    Total Bet on the day = 4pts
    Total Return on day = 1.88pts
    Loss on day = 2.12pts

    Profit c/f = 8.4pts

    #252828
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Selections Sunday 11th October

    Celestial Tryst 2.35 Goodwood (1/2pt each way @ 9-1 – Best Odds Guaranteed)

    It looks like I am not the only one drawn to Celestial Tryst. His price seems to have tumbled today and is very well fancied. The horse has come a long way for this nursery and on a line through Diamond Duchess, whom he beat into third on his Doncaster maiden, a mark of 78 is not too harsh. He went to France last time out but I am willing to ignore that run today. There are plenty exposed types in this race – but there are others who are unexposed. Guilleta Da Vinci went off favourite on his nursery debut last time but was disappointing. Could be a danger if bouncing back after a 70 day break.

    Result = Unplaced

    Happy Anniversary 3.45 Goodwood (1/2pt each way @ 14-1 – Best Odds Guaranteed)

    Has been running consistently well all season without getting her head in front. Her best run perhaps came at York when only failing to catch Smarty Socks on rain softened ground. That was a class 4 race (as is todays), which is a lower class of race than the class 2 and 3 races Happy Anniversary has contested with merit on her last three starts. She has been dropped a couple pounds since her last run and with ground in her favour she has a chance today.

    Result = Unplaced

    Broad Cairn 3.35 Lingfield (1/2pt each way @ 11-1 – Best Odds Guaranteed)

    Arguably the most intriguing race of the day is this race. There are plenty of nice sorts but many of them can be good and bad on differing days. Its with this in mind I am hoping Broad Cairn can bounce back today. He was very disappointing last time out when favourite at Doncaster. Earlier in the season he had also disappointed when fancied at Sandown (behind Kyllachy Star – 3rd run in 5 weeks) but came back and won over same course and distance 5 weeks later. Broad Cairn has had a break of 5 weeks since Doncaster (which was his 3rd run in 4 weeks) and I am hoping that the break will see a better performance today like last time. Without Prejudice (re-united with Freddie Fylicki) and Prescription are the ones I fear most but Prescription has a poor draw today. Its a competitive race but Broad Cairn might come back to form.

    Result = Unplaced

    Profit c/f = 5.4pts

    #252840
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    I will be away on holiday for a week from tomoorow and will pick this back up when I return. At least I can go on holiday with profit in my favour. I thought about a few ante post punts at Newmarket this weekend but wont bother.

    #252856
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Well done doug, top start!! Do you think you’d be better off sticking to a full point each way though as after all the goal is to maximise profits. Enjoy your holiday!

    #254418
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    I agree with you in theory tbracing but have to admit my betting bank is relatively small at present (dont bet what you cant afford to lose is very much the motto!). My thinking is if I can reach a profit of 20pts then my tips and selections process is doing well and at such point I would increase minimum stake to 1pt each way or 2 pts win. However it is very early days.

    #254573
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Selection Wednesday 21st October

    Ruler of All 5.00 Bath (1/2pt each way @ 12-1)

    An intriguing handicap with many old stagers taking on an army of 3yos, many of whom could produce better form than shown today. I fancy Ruler of All to be one such horse. He was well backed (20-1 into 9-1) for a similar sort of race over 2f further at Salisbury last week and ran well enough in 7th. He seemed to tire in the final 2f furlongs so the drop in trip is a positive. Also that was his first run for Henry Candy and his first run since April. If there is any improvement to come fitness wise then he’d be very much in with a shout here. Solar Graphite was another to catch the eye returning from a break but given the odds on offer a chance is taken each way with Ruler of All.

    Result = Unplaced

    Blue Neptune 5.50 Kempton (bet is not placed – odds shorter than hoped for – pity)

    I am not yet sure whether to be backing Blue Neptune. He is on my shortlist based on his last run at Wolverhampton where he showed speed from stall 10 (of 11) and had to race 3 wide all the way round the bend into the straight where he faded inside the final 1 and a half furlongs to finish 7th. Blue Neptune is no world beater but may be upto a small nursery like this, although when I noted him I had hoped he might be larger than the approx 5-1 on offer here. If the price was to lengthen to 7-1 or 8-1 when the on-course market opens I may back him. I would update this page accordingly if he is backed.

    Profit c/f = 4.4 pts

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