Doug’s Tips

[petercreek]

Blue Neptune is available at 6’s with Ladbrokes and is generally 5’s everywhere else. My idea of the winner would be Chinese Democracy (8/1 VC) who takes a big drop in trade and if taking to the new surface must be there or thereabouts. The US breeding would give hope that he will enjoy the surface and he did settle a little better last time out. If you take into account he was only 4 lengths behind the Mark Johnston horse Take Ten (who is now rated 92) who finished second in the 250000 Tattersalls Timeform Millions sprint he could blitz this lot.

[douginho]

Couldn’t get bet placed on blue neptune – but as it turns out I wouldn’t have done so anyway as odds shorter than ideal. Maybe I should have just gone with my initial thoughts and not worried about the odds.

[douginho]

Selections Thursday 22nd October

Not strong fancies today but a few minor selections.

The Galloping Shoe 3.05 Brighton (1/2pt each way @ 8-1)

The horse has looked a touch one paced at times but has looked capable of winning a handicap such as this, particularly based on his 3rd when well backed at Windsor a few runs back. He has suffered minor interference in running at Folkestone recently which perhaps means he ran slightly better than distance behind eventual winners would suggest. He isn’t badly drawn in 14 as the ground is on the softside and they may come standside this afternoon. If Ryan Moore can get him out sharply the horse might just come good today.

Result = Unplaced

Arctic Ben 3.55 Ludlow (1/2pt each way @ 5-1)

The Henry Daly stable has started the season in excellent form and this is a horse who showed great promise last year. He has gone well fresh in the past and particularly caught the eye 2 runs back at Uttoxeter when travelling like a good horse before not finding what looked likely after the last flight. A repeat of that sort of run and with the summer to have strengthened up further, Arctic Ben should certainly be involved in the finish and represents an each way bet to nothing in my view.

Result = 3rd @ 9-2. Returns = 1pt

Piquante 4.40 Brighton (1/2pt each way @ 5-1)

Similar type profile to Arctic Ben in that he often travels well. He did so at Salisbury and Ripon particularly this season. All recent runs have been over further than todays trip of 1m and that combined with the rain softened ground (should like it being son of Selkirk) makes me hopeful he might finish his race today.

Result = WON @ 4-1. Returns = 4pts

I have one further selection for this evening having now had a chance to study Kempton

Hazy Dancer 8.20 Kempton(1/2pt each way @ 10-1)

(best odds guaranteed
A horse that I have watched on her last 2 starts, mainly to see if ability remained as a 3yo. She won her only start as a 2yo at Lingfield beating a couple of more experienced rivals narrowly. As it has turns out those rivals were Applause (4th in the Cambridgeshire) and Greenisland (Placed twice in Listed company as 3yo). On her 3yo return she ran in the Cheshire Oaks, so she clearly had shown promise through the winter. She ran badly that day and again on her reappearance after a long summer break at Goodwood. However, her last run displayed much more promise when she was hard ridden from over 3f out and looked like finishing well behind but kept on gamely in the straight. She has been dropped 4lb for that run and drops into class 5 for the first time tonight. Marcus Trgoning and Richard Hughes are 1 from 2 this season and in an open race Hazy Dancer is worth a small bet.

Result = Unplaced (4th!)

Total Bet on day = 4pts
Total Return on day = 5pts
Profit on day = 1 pt

Profit c/f = 5.4pts

[Stacelita]

Hey Doug am glad you have reverted to tipping singles because in the long run that is only likely way to win.
The odds against you when doing multiple bets like a lucky 15 are enormous.
Through my research conducted on how I can maybe one day become a professional (a long way to go yet). I have found out how shrewd Bookmakers really are because they love to offer multiple Horse racing bets when the odds are enormously in their favour and yet have you ever heard of a lucky 15 on 4 tennis/darts matches among other sports when they’re are only 2 possible outcomes hence increasing your chances tenfold of coming out in front?
In football the draw factor weighs heavily in the layers favour therefore it is better to bet on under/over markets with 2 possible outcomes.
I’dlove to hear your thoughts on this

[douginho]

Hi Stacelita,

I do agree with you regarding Lucky 15’s v Singles betting…but only to a point. I did my each way lucky 15’s (10p each way = £3.00) for a period of approximately 6 weeks and only made a loss of £10.90 odd. My thinking behind the each way lucky 15 is that you have to accept you are going to go long spells without much reward, but that if you are getting a steady stream of winners and placed horses you should be able to keep your head above the water (basically what I did for 6 weeks). Therefore you only need to strike success (ie 3 or 4 winners) a couple of times a year to make a good profit.

For example:-

I may do 10p each way lucky 15 almost every day of the year (lets say 350 days of the year). Total bet is £1,050. If I scramble around for 345 days of the year and get back £1.50 average on each of these days I will get back half of this (£525). If on the other 5 days I have 4 lucky 15’s where I get 3 winners and 1 lucky 15 where I get 4 winners I am almost certain to make money.

If my 3 winner lucky 15’s paid an average of £70 each (4 x £70 = £240) and my 4 winner lucky 15 paid £600 then I will make a decent profit to a 10p unit stake.

Total bet = £1,050
Scrambling return = £525
3 winner return = £240
4 winner return = £600

Total Profit = £315

Thats a very basic example but does show how Lucky 15’s can be profitable. And bear in mind I did my Lucky 15’s without knowing odds on the day (I placed most of my Lucky 15’s night before).

That said, I can see how backing singles will also help. Fact is, no matter how you bet, if your not finding winners or placed horses then you are going to lose. I am very much experimenting with my betting styles this year, Each way doubles, Each way Lucky 15’s, Each Way Singles. I am sure my best betting style (and I mean mine, it might not suit others), is a combination of all 3. Being able to spot when each bet type is correct for each day, for each selection. I dont have the time via work commitments to make a proper go of it but if I can make a little money on the way and learn as the years go by, I will eventually be placed to make a proper go when I reture…in 37 years!

[douginho]

Selections Friday 23rd October

Layline 2.55 Doncaster (1/2pt each way @ 8-1)

The horse caught the eye in a small conditions event at Epsom last time out. He was held up and when into the straight always appeared to be hanging down the camber in behind those ahead of him, finishing tight up behind the front 2. In 2nd that day was Raine’s Cross, a fairly solid yardstick rated 95. That makes Layline’s mark of 91 a fair one. Ralph Beckett has had a reasonable month, especially with 2yo’s and Layline is a solid each way selection in a highly competitive Nursery.

Result = Unplaced

Cleaver 4.05 Doncaster (1/2pt each way @ SP)

Now Cleaver isn’t one for risking the mortgage on, and he does have a tendency to finish placed rather than win. Therefore he is a worthwhile each way selection here. I have taken SP as I could only get 8-1 with Ladbrokes – I’m hoping his price wont be shorter than 8-1 come the off. Apart from his solid placed efforts there are further positives for Cleaver. He likes cut in the ground and goes well fresh – and Lady Herries has had 12 placed horses from just 30 runners this season. His draw is poor but given that he is held up anyway he will probably cross behind the field. Then there is the long Donny straight – plenty of time to pick off the strugglers.

Result = Unplaced

Profit c/f = 3.4pts

[Stacelita]

Hey Doug nice reply but can you become a professional doing lucky 15’s or other multiple bets highly unlikely IMO.
I have learnt a lot over the last 2 years and especially since i started this tipping thread as to how difficult it actually is to consistently find winners. This has taught me an unbelievable amount and from now on you will only see selections where I feel like I have an edge over the bookmaker.

[douginho]

I’m not saying you can be a professional punter doing Lucky 15’s. But you can make money doing them. And for me who has no real immediate hope of even trying to be a professional punter, they are a good bet type I can enjoy success with. Good Luck though, Stacelita, I hope you manage it as a professional!

Selections Saturday 24th October

An each way lucky 15 risking 1.5pts on the following (best odds guaranteed):
Veiled Applause 1.50 Doncaster @ 6-1
Pleasant Day 2.05 Newbury @ 16-1
Fullandby 2.20 Doncaster @ 16-1
King Charles 4.55 Newbury @ 16-1

Veiled Applause has been in good form of late and is a reasonable alternative to Starla Dancer, who may have been flattered last time out at York. There isn’t a great deal of strength in this race so the fact Veiled Applause is in form is a major factor here.
Pleasant Day is an improving handicapper taking first steps into pattern company…a ploy that can prove useful in these backend listed and group 3 races (ie Layla’s Hero this season). He is overpriced based on his 2nd to Audacity of Hope (8-1 today) at Doncaster 2 runs ago when he might just have hit the front too soon. He has the experience to cope with the big field unlike many of the unexposed maiden winners. At 16-1 he has better chance than those odds imply.
Fullandby has had a poor year generally but ran very well in the Ayr silver cup 2 starts ago before finding 7f too far last time. A return to 5f on softened ground is certainly within his compass and he races off as low a mark as he has since September 2006 (if you consider M Lane’s 5lb claim. He is drawn high which isn’t a conclusively bad or good draw. However, Parisian Pyramid and Judge and Jury are drawn high and can provide pace on his side. Fullandby might just be able to get his head in front today.
King Charles is a fairly solid handicapper, maybe even in the handicappers grip. However, he has a decent record on rain softened ground and in big fields. He was an eyecatcher last week at Newmarket when not getting the clearest of runs when being handy appeared to be an advantage. There are some unexposed types such as Namibian Orator and Rainbow Peak but feel they are shorter odds than they should be.

Result =
Pleasant Day = 2nd
Fullandby = 4th
Veiled Applause = Unplaced
King Charles = Unplaced

Returns = 1.5pts

Tidal Bay 2.15 Aintree (1pt win @ 11-4) – Best odds guaranteed

A class horse who clearly had physical problems last season. He just wasn’t the horse last year that won the Arkle the year before…and yet he still finished just 10l behind Master Minded in the Tingle Creek and 7l behind Imperial Commander in the Ryanair Chase. He has a good first time out record and the Howard Johnson team have started the season in good form. At 11-4 he is too big a price to ignore today.

Result = 2nd.

(Although had to confess I was delighted to see one of my all time fav horses win the race. Just disappointed when I noticed I let him go off at 12-1 under his ideal conditions (fresh on flat track over 2m 4f on good ground!)

Profit c/f = 2.4pts

[douginho]

Selections Sunday 25th October

Leac An Scail 2.45 Aintree (1/2pt each way @ 6-1)

– best odds guaranteed
A horse I have followed for a while and a somewhat frustrating individual. However, he is on a fair mark for his seasonal return, has run well when fresh in the past (3rd in this race last year) and handles any sort of ground. He went chasing back in the spring with limited success, although reverting to hurdles today might give the horse confidence. He has a decent each way shout here.

Result = Unplaced

Fair Point 3.00 Uttoxeter (1/2pt each way @ 9-1)

– best odds guaranteed
Has not got a lot experience for a 7yo (today is only his 8th lifetime start) and only made his racecourse debut on this day 12 months ago. However, in that time he has shown a good level of ability in both Novice Hurdles and Novice Chases. He wasn’t unfancied for 4 miler at the Festival on the back of a gutsy win at Taunton. He was then sent off favourite on his last start of last season for a competitive Novice Chase at Lingfield but disappointed. It could have been he had had enough racing in one season for such an inexperienced horse and he could prove to be a staying chaser to follow this season. Todays trip of 3m 4f should hold no fears and his jumping looked sound last season, completing all starts. A few of his rivals today are in form (Toby Jug/Templer/Classic Clover) but are therefore higher in the handicap. Hopefully Fair Point can take advantage of this.

Result = Withdrawn

Profit c/f = 1.4pts

[douginho]

Monday 26th October

The Snatcher 5.10 Kempton (1/2pt each way @ 10-1)

Just the one bet today – The Snatcher. Todays racing is a typical end of flat season Monday…low grade, little quality. However, The Snatcher catches the eye in the last at Kempton. He was well backed 16-1 into 8-1 last time out at Kempton over 7f when he was held up and never really got into the race despite finishing only 3 and a 1/2 lengths behind the winner. The step up in trip wont be a problem today and neither will the change of jockey from Richard Hughes to Patrick Hills. The 3lb weight allowance means the horse is carrying a lower weight than for his last victory at Bath in April 08 and the jockey that day was Patrick Hills. The reason the horse has taken so long to come back down the weights is because he seems such a genuine and consitent type of animal. He is well drawn today on the rail and today might just see him get his old head in front again.

Result = Unplaced

Profit c/f = 0.4pts

[douginho]

Selections Tuesday 27th October

Snoqualmie Star 3.10 Yarmouth (1/2pt each way @ 9-1)

Has shown promise in both starts so far, particularly on debut behind Al Zir and good quality Newmarket maiden. Last time out was a little disappointing in relation to debut effort but Snoqualimie Star did best of those held up when racing on the pace was definitely an advantage. A step up to 1m and a return to softer ground here look certain to suit and the trainer is in good form with a few winners in the past week. There are a few fancied debutants in the line up today but Snoqualmie Star sets a reasonable standard to reach and with experience an advantage, she must have a chance today.

Result = Unplaced

Dimashq 4.00 Catterick (1/2pt each way @ 6-1)

A very consistent performer who has run well at the course numerous times this year, as well as on soft ground. There is a question mark against many of these whereas Dimashq is most likely to give his running. With that in mind he rates a solid each way selection this afternoon.

Result = Unplaced

Favourite Girl 3.00 Catterick (1/2pt each way @ 12-1)

Caught my eye staying on nicely behind Sea Of Leaves at Newmarket 2 runs ago. Was outpaced over 5f here last time so stepping up in trip should suit although 7f might just be further than ideal. That said, she has a good draw in stall 1 and if she can break well she should be able to hold a position round the bend into the straight and hopefully have a chance of lasting home. She should appreciate the softer ground too. On her best form, she is well weighted and hopefully can give a good account.

Result = Unplaced

Loss c/f = 2.6pts

[douginho]

Wednesday 28th October

French Saulaie 3.25 Haydock (1/2pt each way @ 8-1)

Fancied him on his seasonal debut at Chepstow a couple of weeks ago and the same reasons apply today. He likes top of the ground and is off a career low mark. I remain convinced there is a decent little handicap in him this season. Whether its today remains to be seen though.

Result = Unplaced

Alanbrooke 3.05 Musselburgh
Marine Spirit 7.20 Kempton
(1/2 pt each way double @ 3-1 and 3-1)

Alanbrooke has been consistent in this type of race for the last few months. He was well behind some of these in the Cesarewitch last time but his previous 3 runs were very solid. The drop in trip to 2m on a sharper track should suit and he has every chance today.
Marine Spirit hasn’t looked the most straight forward of animals but he clearly has some ability. He raced wider out at York on his last run when those nearer to the rail seemed to dominate the race. He still ran well and if in the same form he can take a hand in the finish here.

Result = Alanbrooke 3rd
= Marine Spirit Unplaced

Loss c/f = 4.6pts

[douginho]

I think I will end this thread now. I have done ok but I am missing the buzz of Multiple betting!

With that in mind and following a "challenge" from Stacelita

Hey Doug am glad you have reverted to tipping singles because in the long run that is only likely way to win.
The odds against you when doing multiple bets like a lucky 15 are enormous.
Through my research conducted on how I can maybe one day become a professional (a long way to go yet). I have found out how shrewd Bookmakers really are because they love to offer multiple Horse racing bets when the odds are enormously in their favour

Hey Doug nice reply but can you become a professional doing lucky 15’s or other multiple bets highly unlikely IMO.

I am going to try another Lucky 15 thread (sorry…I promise to make this the last one I start). Will start from 1st November.

[douginho]

And by way of a warm up for more each way Lucky 15’s…here’s two that could serve well today:

Zaaqya 2.25 Newmarket 8-1
Atacama Sunrise 3.00 Newmarket 16-1
Haadeeth 3.35 Newmarket 5-1
Perfect Shot 4.05 Newmarket 12-1

Conniption 1.50 Newmarket 11-2
Cobblers Queen 3.25 Uttoxeter 13-2
Teenando 3.55 Uttoxeter 15-2
Maldon Prom 8.20 Wolverhampton 9-1

And an each way double:
Professor Higgins 2.40 Wetherby 3-1
Trumpstoo 3.15 Wetherby 5-1

[douginho]

Just as well yesterday was a warm up lol!

[terminator]

Doug

Hows about a Lucky 15 Challenge me and you head to head
till the end of november, no e/ways just win bets
this should make the posts a bit more interesting
hope you are up for it.

Wfm Racing

[douginho]

Yeah go on then mate. Need to set a few rules first.

1. All selections to be posted on here before off time of first selections race (ie if first selection runs at 2pm all selections to be on here before that time) or else bet is void.

2. All prices taken to be posted next to selection. If no price posted then assume SP taken.

3. As per standard high street bookmakers, one winner will return double the odds.

4. Selections can only be made from UK and Irish racing.

5. Each bet will cost 15pts.

6. After each days racing each of us will post a page noting any winners and corresponding returns together with an ongoing profit/loss pts total.

7. At the end of November one of us will be declared the Lucky15 tipping champion for November.

Read the above and let me know what you think? Any rules you want to include/alter? Perhaps we should open this up to anybody who wants to participate?

Doug

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