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WOLVERHAMPTON
Yes thats right I’m backing one at Wolverhampton!
6:15
A rare all-weather selection in this modest handicap. The ten runners have had sixty nine career starts to date without success. One of them will get off the mark here and hopefully that one will be CENTURY DANCER. She showed some promise here on a few occasions at the back end of last year, most notably when a fast finishing third over this trip in November. She doesn’t look short of speed and probably found 9f too far at this stage on her next two starts, and had probably had enough for the time being when last seen at Lingfield. She isn’t ideally drawn here in ten, but I reckon now she’s had a little break, she is capable of a bold show in such a weak heat. She’s likely to be a fair price as I’m sure both Sleeping Brave and Neytiri will dominate the market. The former showed more last time at Lingfield on his first start as a three year old, but you could throw a blanket over the first eight there and I wouldn’t be rushing in to back him at a short priced, based on that suspect piece of form. Neytiri is a consistent individual at this lowly level, but he has no secrets from anybody and whilst he is sure to be thereabouts, I wouldn’t want to be supporting him at a short price either.
6:15 – Century Dancer – 0.75pt each way at 12/1 or better (I would love the Sporting Lifes forecast 33’s!)
Robert, you are on fire!
Several hours later and I’ve just about recovered from the shock of an all-weather winner! If one track were to disappear altogether I’d probably wave goodbye to Wolverhampton as I find it a bit of a minefield on the whole, and hardly have a bet there. Therefore it was satisfying to see Century Dancer finish to good effect down the outside to land the spoils at 22/1!! Earlier in the afternoon Master Eddy ran well in defeat when second at 14’s (I did suggest taking 10’s, but both B365 & VC are Best Odds Guaranteed). King’s Flagship showed promise again despite being well beaten in the end, but Seminal Moment was never going at Sedgefield. Overall a profit of 19.55pts on the day!
There is the small matter of the Dubai World Cup happening on Saturday, and whilst I’ll watch it, it’s not a race of interest from a betting perspective as I honestly don’t see how it’s possible to tie in all the form from around the world. I think I can count on one hand the number of bets I’ve had in Dubai, although for reasons I will explain below, I can’t resist one in a supporting race on the card.
Elsewhere the Winter Derby takes place at Lingfield, and it doesn’t look to be one of the stronger renewals. There is a decent enough card at Newbury, but both the Mares’ finals look very difficult, and to be honest the meetings at Bangor and Stratford are of more interest to me. The first two year old race in this country takes place at Kempton, so there is something to suit everybody.
Total P/L +97.05
MEYDAN
1:15
As I said I hardly ever get financially involved in races from Dubai, and it’s only by chance that after flicking through the card I saw the name of PICCADILLY FILLY. I then noticed she was a 33/1 chance and after looking through the runners, I have to ask, why? This filly has got so much natural speed, that as a two year old I did wonder if she would ever truely see out 5f. Well she had obviously strengthed up a bit from two to three and learnt to settle a little better. She had a wonderful season with a second in a group two in France, followed by a third in the Nunthorpe and then a fine effort when a close up seventh in the Abbaye. We know she goes well fresh, she clearly doesn’t mind travelling (granted Dubai is a tad further than Ireland or France) and the fact is she has beaten several of these rivals already and yet she is open to a little more improvement. If she were trained by Dandy Nicholls you could half her odds and then deduct a few more points. I’m only getting involved because with the exception of a couple, I do know about most of these given the strong british representation. Sole Power of course won the Nunthorpe, but the filly wasn’t far behind and yet is three times the price. I know J J The Jet Plane is top notch on his day, but I would think he is better off over 6f. Take him out and as I’ve said, she has beaten some of the other main contenders, the likes of War Artist and Spin Cycle. I won’t be getting too involved, but at 33’s you don’t need too.
1:15 – Piccadilly Filly – 0.75pt each way at 33/1 (B365, Boyles, PP, Hills, all 1/4 Best Odds Guaranteed, wouldn’t accept less than 25’s)
BANGOR
4:20
This is a good race for the track, and I’m surprised nobody has priced this up overnight. Several of these have been in fair form of late, and whilst it’s a step up in class for Pie At Midnight, he is one of the more likely winners. Ouzbeck is a classy sort on his day, but I would imagine this is a pipe opener for a couple of spring targets over fences. Stagecoach Opal has struck form of late fo Sue Smith, but I think THE SHY MAN has chances of turning around a twenty two length beating by him last time. The selection isn’t the most consistent horse in training, but he will appreciate this better ground, and he often comes to himself at this time of the year. He won what was an equally competitive race at Aintree back in October and is now only 2lb higher. He hinted that he was coming to himself last time, when he was seen running on under what can only be described as tender handling from his inxperienced 10lb claimer that day. He is a course and distance winner (over fences) Barry Keniry who gets on well with him is back in the saddle, and given that early indications suggest he will be around three times the price of Stagecoach Opal, he looks likely to be overpriced.
4:20 – The Shy Man – 1pt each way at 16/1 or better
STRATFORD
2:55
I was disappointed that the claiming hurdle at Bangor didn’t appear to offer a betting opportunity, but perhaps this selling hurdle does. Both Hypnotic Gaze and Sun Tzu stand out in this, and sooner or latter Navajo Nation will pick up a race, but although this isn’t the sort of race I’d expected ROSES LEGEND to be contesting, I wouldn’t rule out a good run at what should be a big price. I’m not sure why connections have decided to run her in a non handicap, as she only has a handicap mark of 78. However if you backed the top rated/best in at the weights, in these races blind, you would soon be penniless. The fact is that all three rated over 100 would struggle to win a handicap of their marks, and although she still does have quite a bit to find, I don’t think it’s as much as it first appears.Her debut effort in a bumper wasn’t all that encouraging, but her hurdling debut offered a little more hope, and on that evidence it appeared she would need a step up in trip. After another passable effort at Ludlow she was stepped up to three miles at Chepstow and that allowed her to travel well, on the bridle until turning in, at which point she faded fairly rapidly. The jockey’s on board have never been hard on her, and this trip, on better ground (like most Midnight Legends, her action suggests faster ground will help) should suit. Her tiny stable have had the odd winner over the years from a very small number of horses, and I just have a feeling she shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.
4:05
I quite like the look of DRIVING MISS SUZIE in this moderate handicap hurdle. Her small yard do well with their string, and I fancy they’ll get a win out of this mare, something Andrew Balding and Jonjo O’Neill didn’t manage to do. She stayed 1m4f on the flat, and having reviewed some of her hurdling efforts, I’m convinced she will be well suited to 2m3f around here. She had some fair juvenile hurdling form but then she wasn’t seen for the best part of three years before returning at Hereford for this yard in late January. She showed enough that day, despite being pulled up, to suggest all was not lost with her. Last time at Wincanton she fell three out when still going well in the race that Allformary romped home in. I doubt very much she would have beaten her that day, but the fact is given how much the handicapper has hiked Kim Baileys charge up the weights, she meets her on 23lb better terms today! I’m not convinced Allformary will be suited by the step up in trip either (a miler on the flat) and a few of the Bailey horses have been running flat in the last few days. Driving Miss Suzie’s best form is on good or faster ground and the fact that she likes to race fairly handily is no bad thing around Stratford. Providing she is none the worse for the tumble I think she should go well in a very moderate race, and she has the services of Donal Devereux, to my mind, the best jockey jockey in the line up.
I’ve stated why I’m not so keen on Allformary, of the others Domino Dancer looks the most likely to run his race, and I’d fear him, and Gulf Of Aqaba is surely capable of better. The three at the bottom of the weights all ran in the same race at Huntingdon last time, and it would be a major turn up if any of those took the prize.2:55 – Roses Legend – 0.5pt each way at 33/1 or better
4:05 – Driving Miss Suzie – 1.5pt each way at 10/1 or better (14/16’s would be nice)LAY OF THE DAY
SIR CHARLIE HUTCH ran well on his debut at Catterick, but I didn’t think he put up much resistence when headed, and he didn’t look the most straightforward of characters.Swinbanks bumper horses rarely improve on their debuts efforts, and if thats the case again here, I’m sure he’ll find one or two too good, a lay at under 3/1
Quick summary of other races.
Unoriginal but I think Nideeb is the most likely winner of the Winter Derby. Like a lot of the Brittain horses he looks the type to progress again from three to four. Although he didn’t quite make the lay of the day, I will be opposing Moose Moran in the Newbury opener, although it is a bit of rogues gallery, with Comedy Act, and Kahfre also in the line-up. Franklino was a big talking horse but has failed to deliver, and I think the most likely result is that one of the Brendan Powell trained pair will take this. The mares novice chase is an interesting event and although she was disappointing last time, if pushed I’d side with Cool Friend who has a touch of class about her, and looks fairly handicapped. The final of the mares hurdle series is fiercely competitive and although Emmaslegend has been progressively rapidly recently, she faces a far tougher task here. I’ve been disappointed with Mizzurka this season but I wouldn’t put it past her to show her true colours now the Buckler horses appear to be running slightly better.
Well I was due a day like today, although at 16’s, 20’s & 33’s it’s not the end of the world that I didn’t get a return (not counting Roses Legend who didn’t reach 33’s at any stage). The Shy Man drifted to nearly 50’s on Betfair about an hour before the race, and someone, somewhere was very keen to lay him, seemingly at any price, I therefore wasn’t too surprised to see him trail in last.
I’ve just watched the Dubai World Cup, and I didn’t feel asleep, so thats something.
I have limited time to do the Sunday write up as it’s Saturday evening and I’ve things to do, but they’re just two selections, one at each meeting so I think I’ll just about manage.
Total P/L +90.55
HEXHAM
3:40
A fairly competitive race of it’s type, but I can find reasons to oppose some of the more fancied runners and BOW SCHOOL is the selection. He has been mixing chasing and hurdling in the past few years, and is actually still looking for his first success over hurdles. He ran ok last time in a hunter chase on ground that would have been softer than ideal, and i’m hoping that the ground will be more good than good to soft by the time of the race tomorrow. He ran well in a novice hurdle here last June when he was rated 107. He started this season with a good third in another novice event at Kelso and a reproduction of that sort of form off a mark of 102 in a handicap should see him go close.
Whisky Magic & Supreme Ruler have long absences to overcome. I’m not convinced Rolecarr really wants a stiff 2m4f to be seen at this best and Golfers Crossing doesn’t strike me as a horse who is capable of winning off a mark of 120 (11lb higher than last time). The veteran Texas Holdem should go well and River Dragon is a threat now competing in handicap company.3:40 – Bow School – 1pt each way 12/1 or better (I didn’t realise this was an early price race, 20’s with B365, VC & PP)
WINCANTON
5:20
KAYCEE has frustrated me a few times so far in his career and is very much in the last chance saloon now, but after his latest effort at Taunton I’m giving him one final chance to come good. He showed a bit of ability in bumpers, and I thought he might even be up to winning a novice hurdle. So far he has been very disappointing over hurdles, but has shown just about enough on a few occasions to indicate thats he not completely a lost cause. I wasn’t sure about the 2m3f trip last time, but he was nursed into the race and he appeared to get the trip well enough when finishing seventh, beaten fifteen lengths. He wasn’t given a hard race there, and has since been dropped another 4lb and races here off a mark of just 78. The ground last time at Taunton was on the soft side and without doubt that doesn’t suit him as well as this faster ground, so thats a big positive. My slight concern here is the lack of any early pace as he can often pull a bit in the early stages, but a couple of these have made it in the past, so hopefully they’ll do so again. Peter Toole takes over from Mark Grant, and with respect to the latter thats another positive.
E Street Boy was a long way behind Kaycee at Taunton, but showed a little more last time. Man Of Leisure is modest, but consistent at this level, the same can be said of The Fox’s Decree. I just feel Kaycee is very well handicapped if he can put it all together, and he isn’t really going to get a better opportunity than this.5:20 – Kaycee – 3pts win at 7/1 or better (if double figures is available i’ll up it to 4pts as I think that would be a huge price)
Both Kaycee & Bow School were disappointing on Sunday, and with hindsight perhaps I slightly overdid it on the former, although it was impossible to know that E Street Boy was going to absolutely dot up, which makes me feel slightly better as even if Kaycee had run as well as I thought he was capable of, he still wouldn’t have won.
As much as I love the weekends, as far as racing goes midweek meetings tend to be more profitable, and I hope that rings true on Monday.
Plumpton is one of my favourite tracks to visit, but the card there makes absolutely no appeal, with smalls fields galore, and Wolverhampton is also struggling for runners. I guess it’s not to be unexpected given the ground has firmed up for the jumpers quite early, and it’s just about the end of the regular all-weather meetings (shame).
So it is to Towcester we head, and I am really looking forward to the card there.
Total P/L +85.55
TOWCESTER
2:30
A 0-95 handicap hurdle with fifteen runners and just four rated 90+, just the sort of race that gets my full attention, I narrowed it down to four that, two of which will be among the market leaders, namely Atared and Mossman Gorge. The former is a big scopey mare, as you might expect being by Nayef out of a Dayjur mare, and it’s not surprising that she has taken time to find some form. Last time at Huntingdon was without doubt her best effort to date, finishing second to the in-form Samizdat. She is feared off top weight and Mossman Gorge has just a pound less to carry. He is quirky, but has shown enough in two comeback runs at Warwick to suggest he is still capable of picking up a race of this nature. He’s not really one to be backing at a short price though and his overall record seems to suggest a flat track serves him better. Chigorin is an interesting runner after his comeback effort a fortnight ago at Plumpton which showed he’s not quite a lost cause yet. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to me were he to go close in this, but upon reflection I do think he was flattered with how the race panned out last time, and he was still beaten a fair way. Once again the "bounce" factor is offputting, despite the fact he didn’t appear to have too hard a race.
At the likely prices I do think MERIDIEM is the one that is worthy of support. His overall record is patchy to say the least, but there are reasons to expect better here. His first three starts in bumpers offered no encouragement at all, but he then produced a much better effort when second at this track on fast ground in May last year. Time has shown that was a very poor race, but the winner has at least shown ability in novice hurdles and last raced off a mark of 101. Course form here is a major plus point, if you’ve not been to Towcester it’s impossible to tell from the Tv Screen just how far out (about half a mile) they start climbing the hill for home. He showed a little ability in two of his three novice hurdle starts at Market Rasen and Fakenham behind fairly useful winners, but was still beaten around thirty lengths on each occasion, both on soft ground. He was allotted a fairly mean opening mark of 85 for his handicap debut and was well beaten off that at Doncaster a few weeks ago. However after being held up and making headway, he wasn’t given a hard time when he started to weaken up the straight and I’m sure he could have finished several lengths closer on that occasion. He’s been dropped 4lb for that, this would appear to be a much weaker race, and he returns to the track he has performed best at so far, on quicker ground. The first time tongue tie could help his cause and the underused Chris Honour (he’s been around for years, can’t believe he still claims!) takes off 3lb.4:00
On the very first of this month I suggested backing JOLLY BOYS OUTING at Leicester, he failed to really fire that day, but the following day I did say he would be interesting back at Towcester if dropped a few pounds for that. Well I thought a 0-90/100 would be more appropriate than a 0-110, but then I didn’t expect him to be dropped 8lb either, and he must have a pretty decent shout now.
He’s quirky, there is no doubt about that, and I could look a little silly if he refuses to race for a bit like he did here when he last run, but I think he has to be forgiven that one, and he did eventually consent to race and in the end having given away over thirty lengths to the much higher rated Preuty Boy, he only just failed to beat him into second spot. He’s a three time winning pointer and I’ve watched again him win a restricted event at Whitfield in May 2009 on good/good to firm ground. He also won an intermediate at Horseheath last season on good to soft/good ground. Both were big field events and the way he sometimes travels in his races, both in points and under rules suggests to me this horse has more ability than his current rating of 81 implies. What do Whitfield and Horseheath have in common? Both are right handed, both are galloping tracks and the latter has a stiff uphill finish too, Towcester is made for this horse. Ben Poste his 7lb claimer did me a favour when winning on Diddley Dee a few days ago, and he also impessed on Double The Trouble recently, if the horse is on a going day, then the jockey is good enough. He has done 9-7 in the past twelve months should he make the weight here of 9-10 and this horse will feel like he’s running loose, as he will be used to carrying 12 stone and more in points. I’ve just seen William Hill have priced him at 25/1, whatever happens that is a ridiculous price, so I will say thank you very much and yes please to that! I can’t say much more in trying to make a case for him, what about his rivals?
Well Speed Bonnie Boat proved me wrong when she won a novice hurdle here two years ago. She was a hot favourite that day, and I was present at the track and opposed her. Nothing she beat that day has ever come out and won a race, which tells you all you need to know about the strength of the form. To be fair she went on to run well in a fairly decent mares event at Wincanton. More recently her attentions have been turned to fences, but she hasn’t really looked a natural and despite not making too many bad mistakes, she doesn’t ever really gain ground at an obstacle either. She needs to show a fair bit more before being worthy of support. Filippo Lippi doesn’t look like the most obvious chaser to me, but if he takes to it then he should be thereabouts as he’s been fairly consistent over hurdles this season, without perhaps being the heartiest battler. Seamus Mullins is still searching for a winner and I doubt that will go via the veteran Terrible Tenant whilst another yard struggling for winners Bob Buckler is represented by Crank Hill who has won over this C&D off a much higher mark. He could be dangerous but he has his current wellbeing to prove. Von Galen is another to have won ove C&D but he is still 9lb higher for that. Both Silver Bay and Woodmore showed more last time, the latter is the more reliable of the two, but looks plenty short enough around the 100/30 mark.5:00
CARMOND is a horse I thought would win before the season was out, although on his run last time I have my doubts. He has however been dropped 8lb for that chasing debut, and despite one mistake, he jumped well in the main. This german import had his first race in this country in a 2m handicap on the flat on pretty fast ground at Newbury, and finished a close up fifth, staying on at the finish. His best effort over hurdles was at Fontwell over 2m2f again on a faster surface when only beaten a couple of lengths. It is therefore quite surprising that he has often been running on soft/heavy ground over the minimum trip. This 2m3f trip on a sound surface should suit, and there can’t be any excuses if he fails to perform better today, as the handicapper could hardly have been more lenient. He was off for nearly two years before joining the Sherwood yard, but he ran well enough off a mark of 89 over hurdles in heavy ground at Folkestone in January to suggest he wasn’t a lost cause. He probably then "bounced" next time at Leicester before his somewhat disppointing chase debut last time. He’s still only seven, so there is still time for him, and with what I think are his near ideal conditions, he really ought to be capable of going close in this.
Lonesome Boatman likes it here, but is probably slightly better off over 3miles and he could be struggling before running on again when it’s too late. The likes of Bohemian Rock, Kilffinan Castle and Crystal Prince are all fairly consistent in this basement grade, but there is nothing about any of them that suggests we should expect better than they have recently been producing, unlike the selection.2:30 – Meridiem – 1pt each way at 10/1 or better
4:00 – Jolly Boys Outing – 1.5pts each way at 25/1 (Hills, I think anything from 14’s upwards is worth a bet)
5:00 – Carmond – 1pt each way at 12/1 or betterI have a feeling it could go one way of the other with all three. None of them are reliable, but all look capable of big runs, and I think I might be tempted into a few each way doubles and trebles. If the novice hurdle at 3:30 still has 8 runners before the 2:30 goes off then I may well include Lombardy Boy in a few of them. I can’t really see him beating Aruldur, but I think he has mroe natural ability that Break The Chain, and he should at least be finishing third, although the slight note of caution is that it’s his third run for a handicap mark.
- Total Posts 17716
I noted Jolly Boys Outing when I was working through tomorrow’s cards earlier today and immediately thought ‘that’s a horse for Robert if ever there was one’.
He can’t jump straight to save his life – Towcester perhaps isn’t ideal in that respect – but he clearly prefers better ground and was still travelling well when coming down at Leicester in February. He’s not at all flashy, but he looks much better than his rating suggests and I must admit to having a soft spot for chasers who race with their heads low.
William Hill’s 25/1 is seriously misguided.
Evening AJ
You know me too well already if your sussing out what I fancy!
I know what you mean about not jumping straight, although he jumps fairly cleanly and doesn’t seem to lose any ground over them.
Talking of horses that race with their hands low, do you remember old Dancing Paddy? Towards the end of his career in particular it was virtually on the floor!I agree 25’s is misguided………..watch him now drift to 50’s on the exchanges tomorrow!
**Quick edit, Hill’s have cut him to 18’s, but VC have just pushed him out to 25’s**
And whoops, ignore that VC back to 18’s, can’t keep up!
Another good day Rob, Jolly Boys Outing looked the winner a long way out from the finish!!
Words fail me. I’m going to have to break my golden rule of not backing someone else’s tips at this rate
Hats off Robert, this is terrific stuff. I hope you went for the doubles too!
Its not the winner finding that is great (and its been great) its the race reading, form reading and general understanding you provide. Keep up the good work!!
Doug
Thanks for the kind comments everyone.
Two winners from three selections today (Monday) Meridiem at 14’s (Sp) and Jolly Boys Outing who was 25’s with both Hills and VC yesterday evening. A profit of 60.5pts on the day.
I spent over an hour going through Meridiems race yesterday as there were several unexposed types in the race and it was important to trawl through the video archives for that one. The Jolly Boy’s Outing race only required about twenty minutes, I had been waiting for him to reappear in a suitable race, and all the horses were well known to me, I didn’t need to do anywhere near as much digging.
I think Cheltenham aside, thats the first time I’ve mentioned perhaps doing a few doubles/trebles (Lombardy Boy even managed to get in on the act). I rarely do them, but it’s hard to explain sometimes, I just had a feeling it could pay to do a few today. If Carmond had won, it would have been my biggest ever win, a substantial five figure payout, but that would have been asking a little too much!Tuesday’s racing is from Taunton, Lingfield and Southwell. If you’ve been reading for a few weeks you’ll know that the all-weather isn’t really my cup of tea and the only thing I can offer, is to suggest that if Demoiselle Bond is available at a silly price in the opening maiden, by that I mean 25/1 or more it may be worth placing a very small bet on her. She looked a bit sharper on her second start at Kempton last time, and has a lot of natural speed, but she didn’t quite see her race out. The drop back to 5f could help, but it’s a trappy race, with an interesting Morrison newcomer and the likelihood is she’ll be better off in handicaps after this.
I honestly thought for the first time I wouldn’t be putting up any selections. Only two races throughout the whole day have a double figure field and one of those is the bumper! The 3:20 at Taunton has been priced up and one of the runners does look a little overpriced, so I do have one selection.
Total P/L +146.05
TAUNTON
I really wanted to put something up against Shacklesborough in the 4:20, but the opposition is so modest, I can’t! I wouldn’t put it past Drumbeater to sneak into the frame as he showed a little more last time, and if he pushes the pace on a bit he could have a few of these at it a fair way out. Orion Express is a real fast ground horse, but his record fresh is abysmal which is very offputting and so whilst I won’t be rushing to back the Nicholl’s horse at a shade of odds against, I won’t be laying him either.
3:20
I’ve mentioned a couple of times in recent weeks that the Seamus Mullins stable is in desperate need of a winner. I thought for a moment Alldoneandusted was going to get the stable off the cold list at Plumpton today, but it wasn’t to be. It’s not as if he’s had any runners recently that really ought to have won, and enough have run well to suggest a winner may be just around the corner. In fact the selection FOREIGN KING himself ran with credit just five days ago on the Polytrack at Kempton, and that could have put him in tip top shape for this. This horse has won in all three disciplines and two of his four wins have come on the back of having had a run in the previous eleven days. He’s a funny horse in the sense that he stays two miles well on the flat, but doesn’t seem to get any further than 2m2f over hurdles/fences. The most likely scenario here is that Woodlark Island will make the running and I would expect Jimmy Derham to track him throughout. If for any reason the Pipe horse doesn’t make it, then Foreign King may well kick on himself, a tactic that isn’t alien to him. In whatever form it comes, a strongly run two miles is ideal for him, he likes to hear his feet rattle and is now on a fair mark over hurdles. I would have priced him up as a 5/1 shot in this, he is available at 8’s and is therefore worth a modest investment
There may still be a little more to come from Giant O Murchu, but despite the fact he finished clear of the third last time, he found Watergate too strong and I think he needs to improve on that to win this. Posh Emily is a tough mare, but is still probably just a shade too high in the weights, she’s had a fairly busy schedule of late too and that may now begin to catch up with her. Teshali showed more the other day at Newbury and is of course respected, but he may just find things happening a little too quickly for him over this trip around here.3:20 – Foreign King – 1pt win at 8/1 (B365, best BOG, wouldn’t accept less than 7’s)
LAY OF THE DAY
I don’t remember a 4m2f race around Taunton ever happening before, I may be wrong, perhaps it’s passed me by. Anyway that is the trip for the four that go to post to contend with in the 3:50. In truth anyone of the four could win, but I think EARTH PLANET should be the outsider of the party and as such he could be worth taking on. He doesn’t look a happy horse at the moment and has never ran to his best around here either. I think he’s the least likely to get the trip, the ground might be a bit on the fast side for him, and despite the fact he’s edging down the weights, I’m happy to be against him at 3/1 or less.
Clearly Foreign King didn’t run to anything like his form at Taunton. He stopped very quickly, and I’ll keep an eye on the BHA website to see what reason is given for his poor run. As I’ve said before sometimes it’s easier to accept defeat when a horse runs terribly. Had he finished fourth beaten ten lengths, it would have been a case of just being wrong. I had to back Demoiselle Bond at a three figure price but after a slightly tardy start, she never got involved. I did mention Drumbeater in the staying handicap hurdle at Taunton. I must have taken my eye off the ball as I didn’t realise the race was priced up last night and he was available at 16’s. He went off at 5’s and I was never going to get involved at that sort of price. Seamus Mullins has finally had a winner, Foreign King may not have run well, but thankfully Cold Mountain did as he outbattled the "soft" Earth Planet who looked the most likely winner turning for home.
So Catterick hosts the first meeting on turf for the new flat season on Wednesday. This seems to have incensed some people, personally I don’t see what the fuss is all about. What difference would having Doncaster on Saturday as the first day make? Would thousands more spectators flock to Doncaster for that reason? of course not. I admit it seems a slightly strange way to begin proceedings, but racing has far more pressing issues at present. There will be some strange results in the opening weeks, but if anything I find it easier at this time of year than I do in the height of summer, when fast ground form becomes established and the front end of the market tends to be more dominant.
Total P/L +145.05
CATTERICK
2:50
I’m a fan of forty eight hour declarations, I only wish we had them for jump meetings too. It gives me more flexibility and time to go through the races. Sure, you do get more non runners, but that doesn’t particularly bother me, and I see it as a minor negative that is outweighed by the positives. This 2:50 is a 7f handicap and fifteen runners have been declared. 7f races have been very good to me, you really do get specialists at this trip, and these races are usually worthy of a little more study. This is a competitive race, but one horse stood out to me almost straight away and that one is LINDORO. He’s won three races on the turf so far at Goodwood, Thirsk and Epsom, now that is a profile of a horse that will like Catterick if ever there was one. In fact he has already had one run here, that was last season over 6f in which he finished third (was given a lot to do, probably should have won). All of those courses he has won at are similar to Catterick in that they are undulating, and suit nippy/speedy types as opposed to long striding horses. He has run poorly at Ascot, Sandown, Carlisle and Pontrefact, all courses that put more emphasis on stamina, so the make up of the course is clearly a big consideration when backing this horse.
He’s already had a few starts this year, hurdling clearly isn’t for him, he refused to settle and never looked like getting the trip. Back on the level he won over 6f at Southwell and then ran well again over C&D eight days later when just touched off in third. 7f around here is I think ideal for him, he’s drawn six which is fine, however they decide to ride him. He can make the running, but a few of these will be looking to do that, so I hope to see him sit handy in fourth/fifth a couple of lengths off the pace early on, which is what he did when winning at Southwell. You don’t want to find yourself with more than a couple of lengths to make up from the two pole here, as they don’t often stop in front. If the forecast showers arrive and the ground eases that’s not going to bother him, and whilst it’s difficult to rule too many out, everything looks set for a big run from Lindoro.If you have a bet in the claimer at 3:50, you might want to seek professional help! Whose turn will it be, Fremen, Royal Dignitary or Apache Ridge?
2:50 – Lindoro – 1.5pt each way at 9/1 (B365, BOG, wouldn’t accept less!)
I had just written a piece on the 3:20, and I was going to suggest The Oil Magnate. Thats why I like writing my thoughts down, it really asks the question, "should I really be backing this". On reflection I think not as current quotes of 7’s in truth aren’t big enough. A strong pace looks assured which will suit this horse, and he may bounce back now on turf, having offered hope at Southwell. If he can be backed at bigger than 12’s than he may be worth a small interest, but it’s quite competitive and he’s probably either going to win or finish out the back, so I wouldn’t bother him backing each way.
HEREFORD
I’m going back to Hereford next Thursday for the first time in nine years,and hopefully that card will have a few more runners than this one. Dashing Doc is an interesting hurdling newcomer in the first, any confidence behind him would be interesting. The maiden hurdle at 3:40 is competitive enough, both Cap Falco and Thingatong showed promise last time and I’d rather be with those pair than Sizing Ireland who will be underpriced on what he’s actually achieved and Oscar Close who prefers softer ground.
The 4:10 would have been a very interesting race for me, but unfortunately E Street Boy has been declared and you’d have to think he’ll probably go in again. So just the one race that I want to take a proper look at, the 2:40.2:40
No overnight prices for this one. In my book I’d have Chicago Alley as favourite, but not at the Sporting Lifes forecast of 10/11!! Around 9/4/5/2 would be more realistic. It should be remembered that he has’nt actually won over hurdles, and fences did seem to spark a transformation in him (jumps very well). He’s never gone that well after a break either, so whilst he could well win this a shade cosily, the doubts are there. Only Hope couldn’t beat Lupita at Exeter, and thats weak form, but it was his first run in almost two years, so it wasn’t actually a bad first run back. That was only three weeks ago, and dare I mention the "bounce" word again………..Storm Command I think needs a change of scenary, a break, maybe a few starts back on the flat, he looks a bit disinterested at present. He should stay this far and handles the ground, but unless the tongue tie works wonders, I can’t see him winning for the first time. Classic Fly can usually be relied upon to run his race, and he should be all the better for his recent outing at Sandown. Whether he will quite get this trip is the main concern with him, and he could probably do with dropping a few pounds too.
FORMEDABLE is my somewhat speculative pick for Violet Jordan who took over from her dad a few months ago. This horse showed some ability in the 08/09 season, firstly when sixth at Stratford, but without question his best effort came at Market Rasen over 2m6f on good/good to firm ground where he finished fourth, and had he not blundered badly at the last, he would have gone closer. He hasn’t been seen much since then, and on the face of it has shown nothing. At least thats what you would think just by looking at the bare facts. I’ve just watched his run in January at Sedgefield, his first for nine months. The form book shows he finished eleventh of fourteen, beaten thirty two lengths. Leighton Aspell "looked after him", holding him up out the back, making a brief effort down the far side, and then allowed him to coast home. Several of those he finished ten/fifteen lengths behind were hard ridden, and had he been given the same treatment, I think the form book would read, finished sixth of fourteen, beaten fifteen lengths. I’m not suggesting any wrong doing, he clearly was never going to trouble the judge, and had been off for a while, but I do think there was a glimmer of promise there. Last time at Fontwell he was beaten a similar distance, but didn’t travel as well early on, and just plugged on for most of the final circuit. That was a more competitive race than this one though, and the ground was a bit tacky that day. The handicapper dropped him 3lb for Sedgefield and another 5lb since his Fontwell effort. He stays this trip, he has shown he can handles firmish ground and in a bad race I wouldn’t be surprised if he showed a bit more from such a low mark.2:40 – Formedable – 1pt each way at 14/1 or better (RP’s forecast 33’s would be nice, but unlikely)
- Total Posts 17716
I was just discussing tomorrow’s racing with another TRF member and suggested backing
The Oil Magnate
even at the current 7/1. He’s been running well without quite seeing out the trip at Southwell and his effort behind La Estrella last time suddenly looks quite reasonable. He’s still fairly lightly raced, should be improving, will be race fit and Michael Dods had a well-backed winner on the all weather this afternoon. The only slight negative is the booking of Frederick Tylicki. As promising as he is, his record at Catterick is appalling (2 from 58).
I’m opposing you in the 2.50 though with
Politbureau
, who wasn’t given a chance at Wolverhampton on his first start for Mick Easterby – Secretariat would have struggled to race that wide and win – and should benefit from the step back to 7f. I nabbed 20/1 with William Hill and see that he’s already been cut to 14/1.
I’ve also backed
Frognal
in the race.
AJ
Before I deleted it all, I did say that some claimers are harder to win than handicaps and that the win of La Estrella today highlighted that fact. I do think he could win, but given all his problems, I just thought 7’s was short enough, I’d probably have priced him at about that, so maybe wanting 12’s is a little greedy, but double figures anyway.
I see where your going with Politbureau, I watched his races, and were this race at Beverley/Pontefract I might have been tempted, I just wonder if with so much pace on up front he might not just get a little too far behind. But if you’ve got 20’s I reckon thats a fair bet, I’ll be annoyed if that beats mine into second anyway, but happy for you of course
Oh I’ve been able to recover it, this is what I had written
3:20
Front runners galore in this line-up and a strongly run 1m4f around Catterick should suit THE OIL MAGNATE. He was quite a useful three year old, and has clearly had lots of problems in the intervening years. He was only seen once last year after an absence of over eighteen months, and he shaped encouraginly when a fair sixth, not beaten far off a mark of 80 at Beverley. Another nine months passed before he ran at Southwell in January. He looked rusty that day, and again showed he wasn’t a lost cause. Last time at Southwell he was upped in trip to 1m6f in another claimer, won by Southwell specialist La Estrella. I thought he would finish well beaten as he pulled far too hard early doors, but he actually cruised into contention and looked like he might when two out, but he started to tire badly, and in the end could only finish third. I’ve never really thought of him as a stayer as such, and I’m sure this trip around here is much more his cup of tea. He’s still rated 77, and the handicapper could perhaps have been a little kinder. But as I said, less than a year ago he was competitive of 80, and I would argue that he shouldn’t be judged too harshly on those Southwell efforts, they may have been claimers, but as La Estrella showed today when winning a competitive handicap, sometimes claimers are as strong as handicaps. Connections entered him on a high mark both times, and clearly they still think they’re races to be won with him. If someone had said to be what sort of race would I run this horse in, I would have replied, 1m4f, on good/good to soft ground, he’s got that here, he’s assured of a fast pace which should help him to settle and if it all clicks he can win this. Given his overall profile I think he’s worth backing win only rather than each way at 7’s.
I think Mason Hindmarsh will win over this trip this season, but whilst I don’t doubt he will be ready for this, he likes to dominate, and that looks unlikely in this line-up. Royal Swain will be popular, but I wouldn’t recommend a bet on him. I think he looks a very highly strung individual, and despite having a good strike rate, he has also run a couple of shockers. In my opinion he’s more likely to go backwards this year than improve.Funny world…somebody I know who I put bets on for backed both Meridien and Jolly Boys Outing on the day (didn’t get the massive 25s on JBO). I’ve just been going through the form at Catterick and backed Lindoro 1pt win @ 9s. I hope your run continues. Well done Robert, and even when you hit a run of losers (
never
!) and theres no one here saying well done….well done then too!
I’ve got an hour window to type this up and although it will be a little briefer than normal, I’d rather do it now than in the morning, just in case the price goes on one of my selections.
Formedable did the best of Wednesday’s two selections, finishing third at Hereford after weakening when still in with a chance approaching the last, he may have done even better but for the ground, more of that in a moment. He was available at 16’s for an hour in the morning, before being backed into a starting price of 17/2.
Over at Catterick Lindoro performed with credit, finishing fifth of fifteen, but he could never really land a blow.I called Mr Keith Ottesen a "prize idiot" after I saw his interview on ATR regarding the ground, and perhaps that’s a little harsh as I don’t want to resort to personal attacks, but it was certainly an incompetent performance. Last night on all the usual racing websites, Racing Post, Sporting Life etc etc, the ground was described as Good, Good to Firm in places, all of a sudden first thing this morning it was Good to Soft in places, despite a piddling 2mm of rain overnight, and then after the first had been run, it was declared Good to Soft all over. Apparently the going was Good on Monday so they decided to water then and yesterday, but no update was given yesterday evening. Is it really that difficult in this day and age to communicate with people.
He said he watered to ensure "safe ground", is he saying that good to firm ground isn’t "safe"? which is what they raced on at Hereford in June last year. If he was aiming to water to "maintain" good ground which I still don’t agree with, then even that failed, as it was clearly overdone. He claims most trainers are happy with the state of the going, I’d suggest he hadn’t spoken to those that pulled theirs out on account of the ground. If forty eight hours in advance, the going is good and with possible rain forecast, why on earth would you water at all, yet alone to the extent that they did, it simply isn’t good enough. I understand you have to study for several years to get the necessary qualifications to become a Clerk of the Course, common sense obviously isn’t on the curriculum!
If the BHA don’t want horses running on ground any worse than good, they should just come out and say so, although Bath racecourse won’t be seeing much action if that were to happen.Moan over (for now) I’ll be sure to walk the course at Hereford next week!
Thursday’s racing, just two afternoon meetings. Ludlow is a track I really must visit soon, but it’s a track that doesn’t often seem to provide me with too many selections. The handicaps are usually of a slightly better quality than at similar venues, and thats the case on Thursday. The hunter chase is the most interesting race for me, and Cedrus Librani should go close to winning the race for the second year in a row. But surprisingly it’s Leicester and Wolverhampton that provide me with my two bets.
Total P/L +144.25
LEICESTER
3:50
GORDY BEE is still a maiden at the age of five after fourteen career starts, but he’s been running well enough on the all-weather over the winter and this return to the turf could finally see him get off the mark. His penultimate start on turf back in August 09 on good ground, resulted in a very good third in a competitive nineteen runner handicap at Goodwood off a mark of 69. That was his last start for Pat Eddery and for over a year. He reappeared for Richard Guest at Nottingham on heavy ground and finished in mid division at Nottingham. As I said he has been running well enough at both Wolverhampton and Southwell in recent months, but the real question is, is he more effective on turf? It’s hard to know whether his falling handicap mark is a result of the fact that he’s been racing on the all-weather or whether he is just regressive. Without doubt his best pieces of form are on the turf, but they were before his abscence, so it’s tough to know. I think he’s worth taking a chance on because even if he only performs to the level that he has been doing then he should still be competitive enough in a race like this. If he is actually half a stone better on the turf then he is obviously now very well handicapped off a mark of 57. He usually races just behind the leaders, and that run style around here is perfect.
3:50 – Gordy Bee – 0.75pt each way at 10/1 or better (no early prices)
WOLVERHAMPTON
8:15
The last horse I picked on the all-weather was actually at Wolverhampton and it won at 22/1 (Century Dancer), can lightning strike twice? I doubt it, but I’ll try. This race has been priced up by a few firms and 12/1 on CAPERCAILLIE looks well worth a punt. She was a very useful juvenile filly for Mark Johnston two years ago, she finished fourth in both the group two Queen Mary & Cherry Hinton! As a result she started out on a stiff mark for her three year old campaign and despite three decent efforts she found life a little tough. She was sold for 31,000 guineas at the horses in training sales, and given her breeding and the ability she has herself shown, that seems likes a fairly modest sum.
Anyway onto why I think she might go well here. Her sire Elusive Quality does well with his all-weather runners, and her dam was herself was a grade one filly in America on the dirt, so she is bred to handle an artifical surface. She won first time out as a two year old, and performed well on her first outing last season as well. She was third off 92 at the Shercar Cup meeting at Ascot in August last year and races off 84 here. Her new trainer Clive Cox has a 33% strike rate so far in March and she is fairly well drawn in five. She normally likes to race fairly handily, so hopefully she’ll just be able to sit on the heels of the leader(s) before striking for home turning in. So to summarise, she has a good record fresh, is bred to appreciate this surface, looks fairly well handicapped, and the stable form is good. A lot of highly rated two year olds often struggle at three and as a consequence find themselves well handicapped at the beginning of their four year old campaigns, I think she falls into that categorey.8:15 – Capercaillie – 1pt each way at 12/1 (B365 & VC, both BOG, wouldn’t accept less than 10’s)
I started my blog a few weeks after this post, and rather than doubling up all the time, I’ve decided there is really no point in continuing to post on here, my blog is http://www.becherbrook.blogspot.com should anyone wish to carry on reading.
Ta
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