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Well it’s all over for another year, and normality returns for a short time befoe the start of the flat season and the National meeting. I don’t need to write too much about the Gold Cup. If you watched it you’ll know what a great race it was. The romantic in me would have liked either Denman or Kauto to win, but the youngster just had too much for them. It’s a shame Imperial Commander went lame (and apparently bled as well) as he was shaping up well. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the Nicholls pair now, It’ll be difficult to retire two horses who have just finished second and third in the Gold Cup. I’ve read a few things this evening along the lines of "we won’t see their like again" the sort of phrase that is rolled out far too often. Clearly some people have forgotten that Best Mate won three Gold Cups not so long ago! They have been two special horses, but more will come along, Long Run looks like he may well be one of them!
Unfortunately I ended up giving most of Thursday’s profit back, although a nose was the difference between What A Friend being placed and not. Mister Carter was within a few lengths of the lead and hadn’t been asked for an effort in the Triumph when unseating two out. Poor jumping ruined the chances of two more selections, particularly Oscatello in the Foxhunters who barely jumped one fence well. Our Island lost ground at most of his hurdles and was one of the first under pressure, but he did run on well and quite why Tom Scudamore decided to sit out the back on the most proven stayer in the line-up I’ll never know.
I like the next couple of months, although I prefer the jumps, it’s nice to get some flat racing back and the few weeks when top class action under both codes clash is always enjoyable. Only a few weeks now and the evening racing will be back!Onto Saturday’s racing, and two bets at Uttoxeter is the sum total of the days wagers. The Newcastle card is especially disappointing with four of the seven races having six or less runners. I was very tempted to back Easter Vic again there, as several of the field have stamina doubts and she may be able to pick them off again close home, the short trip is a major worry and on balance I’m not convinced she’s one to be backing at single figure odds, so I will leave her alone.
Total P/L +51.70
UTTOXETER
2:25
I’ll keep this brief but BASFORD BOB who I’ve watched closely since his debut and have backed a couple of times has far more natural ability than his mark of 118 suggests and I simply have to support him on his first handicap start. He steps up three furlongs in trip, which won’t be a problem unless he pulls too hard early on. He doesn’t look the easiest ride at times, but I don’t think there is anything wrong with his attitude, Alan O’Keefe really needs to be getting him involved much sooner, as he’s been leaving it too late. He’s travels very nicely through his races, before hitting a flat spot about half a mile out and then running on again at the finish. I don’t believe for a moment that he is a stone inferior to Reindeer Dippin and he really should be able to take advantage of this lenient mark.
Barbatos is an interesting one at the bottom of the weights, and he could be the main danger.3:00
The Midlands National, and the first horses I put a line through are those that run in the eider. It was only three weeks ago and it will be an amazing effort if either Companero, Belon Gale or Ballyfoy manage to win this. Synchronised is the favourite and he probably deserves to be, but it’s a big ask giving a stone or away, in fact he has to give nearly two stone to my selection BENCH WARRENT. This horse is very consistent and has the necessary mix of speed and stamina to win this. He stepped up to 3m5f last time at Warwick and battled on well enough up the straight there to suggest this trip will be within his compass. Several of these will be off the bridle at an early stage, but he should have no trouble on that score, and this isn’t a course you want to be giving too much ground away on.
It’s funny to think that at this time last year Tricky Trickster was quite well fancied by some people in the Gold Cup, but he’s got something to prove at present. Halcone Genelardais has been a great servant to connections and the handicapper has taken something of a chance with him despite the fact he hasn’t been able to land a hunter chase this term.2:25 – Basford Bob – 2pts each way at 7/1 (Paddy Power, would accept 6’s or above)
3:00 – Bench Warrent – 1pt each way at 20/1 (Skybet, VC)
- Total Posts 17716
The Triumph could be a race to follow, Robert.
Zarkandar is obviously a top class prospect, but a number caught the eye in the paddock and should win plenty of races in the future. Architrave was incredibly fit and very well muscled, but was ultimately outclassed; Grandouet is a gorgeous mover, walks with a graceful arrogance and will be better on a slightly easier track; Local Hero was trained to the minute but didn’t appear happy in the preliminaries; and Mister Carter looked absolutely fantastic and clearly had a part to play when making that mistake.
A superb race, resplendent with potential talent.
AJ, I saw Architrave in the paddock at the November meeting and liked him. He didn’t look like your average juvenile hurdler, and I think he could still turn out alright. I would completely agree about Grandouet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he triumphed at Aintree if he turns up there. Local Hero looks like the type who will struggle next season, but I’m sure in time he’ll make up into a fair handicapper, tough type, the sort Mr Gollings does well worth. Shame about Mister Carter, whilst I don’t suggest he would have reached a place, he was running a promising race, and I’ll now follow him with interest.
Whilst it was hard not to be taken with Zarkander, 14’s for the Champion certainly doesn’t do anything for me personally. Would you think I was made to suggest that Unaccompanied at 33’s makes more appeal, given that she didn’t get the smoothest of runs and the fact that more often than not you would expect the ground to be slightly slower……..Not that I’m going to back her, just comparing the two.
A quiet Saturday resulted in Basford Bob running his now famillar race of travelling well, making the odd mistake, getting slightly outpaced and running on again to finish second. Unfortunately connections are persisting in holding him up at the back of the pack. Jennie Candlish does well with her string, but I think she’s missing a trick with this horse.
The ground at Uttoxeter wasn’t as soft as many people thought it was going to be, but still only four finished in the Midlands National, Bench Warrent crept into the race as it wore on, but whilst he lasted longer than half the field, he began to struggle going out on the final circuit and was eventually pulled up.I can get cross/annoyed with so many things that racing’s "decision makers" (or some other stupid corporate term) come up with, but can anyone seriously tell me why most Sunday’s have now been reduced to two meetings?? Just what planet are these people on, I mean isn’t it blindingly obvious that we should have three or four meetings on Sundays and one or two less on a day during the week…………..at least Carlisle and Newton Abbot are at opposite ends of the country, in a fortnight we have two meetings, Doncaster and Market Rasen, an hour apart!!! If these people were on the minimum wage it would be £5 an hour too much.
The Jackpot pool looks like it will hit the million pound mark at Newton Abbot, although of course you will have the deduction from that. Dare I say it, but it doesn’t look the most difficult card to have a go at, and I’d be amazed if it’s not won. I will concentrate on the Devon venue as nothing has grabbed my interest at Carlisle, although the management there should be congratulated on some decent prize money.
Total P/L +51.2
NEWTON ABBOT
The first race should be fought out between Shammick Boy and Topolski. I saw the latter make his winning debut over hurdles at Sandown. I don’t think you can take the form of his defeat of Megastar literally, but after seeing him I thought he might be able to do some damage at Aintree, so I would be disappointed if he didn’t make it two out of two, although Shammick Boy is an above average novice as his rating of 137 would indicate.
In the second, Midnight Appeal will be a banker for many in the Jackpot, but I wouldn’t back him at his likely price, so I’ll take a chance and leave him out.
I would recommend a place bet on Hill Forts Gloria in the third. Something was clearly amiss last time, as she was never going and has ben absent for 80 days. Before that she had been doing well enough at a modest level, but like most King’s Theatres should would appear to be better suited by decent ground, and has best run was on her seasonal return, so the break shouldn’t be a worry. I don’t think she’ll be quite up to winning this but if she is available at 13/8 or better in the place market I would think that a good bet.Yvonne Evelyn is the most likely winner, she has already shown more ability over hurdles than she did on the flat
The Novice Chase looks trappy, with marginal preference for Fin Vin De Leu over Aldertune.4:15
The most competitive race on the card up to this point, but I’m quite sweet on the chances of GILT FREE. Her form in Ireland was patchy but her best efforts were most definitely on faster ground. After a near two year absence she made her debut for George Baker at Doncaster on good ground, but she was clearly in need of that effort as she appeared to blow up turning for home. She performed much better on her next start a month later at Taunton when beaten five lengths into fourth place. That was a weak race, but certainly no weaker than today’s. She was last of five finishers last time at Plumpton, although not beaten far in a muddling affair. She only gave way from two out there over 2m5f, and this drop back in trip looks the right move. Now returned to good ground at a more suitable trip having blown the cobwebs away, I expect to see a much better effort from her, and if she’s ridden prominently as per her last two starts, so much the better, as you don’t want to be giving too much away around here at most meetings.
Webbswood Lad looks a prime candidate to "bounce" and I’d be more worried about Maizy Missile and Cruise Control.4:45
Only B365 have priced this race up, and whilst it probably doesn’t mean to much, it’s interesting to note that they have cut Rossmill Lad from an opening offer of 16’s to 7’s. I remember this horse going off at only 8/1 last time when I thought he should be at least 20’s, so clearly someone somewhere thinks he is capable of better. He showed a glimmer of ability for Tim Vaughan over fences, but only a glimmer, and I certainly wouldn’t be backing him at the original 16’s in this, never mind single figures.
The one I like is FLYING AWARD who makes his handicap debut. This horse won a three mile maiden point at Stafford Cross last season on good (watered) ground and he has shown enough promise in novice events to suggest he can be a force on a sound surface in a weak handicap like this, now upped in trip. He travelled quite nicely until turning in last time where he quickly became outpaced and Mark Quinlan wasn’t hard on him once his chance had gone. It was pretty much the same story in his previous two novice hurdle efforts and in his bumper. It’s difficult to find too many reasons why most of his opponents should improve on their recent modest events and he won’t get too many easier chances to be competitive.
Qualitee finished just in front of him at Exeter, but whilst I wouldn’t completely rule her out, she does shape like she wants a bit more cut, and it’s not obvious that the step up in trip will work so much in her favour either.4:15 – Gilt Free – 1.5pt each way at 13/2 (VC, a little better may be available, but from a gambling yard it might not! wouldn’t accept less than 6’s)
4:45 – Flying Award – 1pt each way at 9/1 or better (B365 have him at 8’s, would think a bit better will be available in the morning) 10’s available
I really enjoy my trips to Newton Abbot, I’ve been there five times in total, not bad considering I live in Essex I like it even more after today thanks to the victory of Flying Award (10’s with rule 4 or 9’s after Rossmill Lad was made a non, same difference really). Lucy Gardner isn’t stylish, but she has a good racing brain, and kicked on for home a fair way out, precisely the right thing to do, and he was a comfortable winner on the day. The other selection Gilt Free was just done out of second on the line, and despite being ridden with more restraint than I anticipated, she ran a good race and showed a small profit.
I’ve decided i’m going to have a day out at Lingfield tomorrow, I might tweet the odd update from the course if I see anything worth mentioning.
Tota P/L +61.75
LINGFIELD
The first two races, a maiden and a novice hurdle have both attracted large fields, and both are interesting. Neither race appeals that much as a betting medium and I’ll have a look in the paddock before I make my mind up in either.I think Goring One is the most likely winner in the 3:30, but he’s not a horse to be backing at shortish prices, so whilst I might have a modest investment as I’m attending, it’s not really a race I want to play in.
4:00
A selling handicap hurdle! hurrah. Just Beware should be in the mix jumping the last, but she isn’t straightforward when coming under pressure and something usually beats her. I don’t think she is ungenuine, but I’m not sure the same can be said of Mut’ab. Perhaps thats a little harsh, but he’s clearly not anything like the decent handicapper he was for Clive Brittain on the flat a few years ago, and I certainly wouldn’t be backing him at a short price. Barodine is interesting given he has been in good form on the flat of late and is potentially well handicapped. But it’s been a long time since he has shown any form over hurdles, and to be honest, I’m not sure Tom Scudamore is the ideal jockey for him, this horse wants a quiet Timmy Murphy type ride, and if Tom reaches for his stick too soon Barodine is likely to down tools.
Low Delta looks sure to run his race, and this is the first time he’s been tried over 2m on decent ground over hurdles in his entire career!!! I’d probably choose between him and Just Beware for your placepot banker. I not yet mentioned Stravita, but she’s been getting beaten in even easier contests than this off the same mark, and I can’t see why it should be any different here. I think the value is likely to be with CELTIC BALLAD who has chances if you forgive her flop last time. She never looked happy at Taunton, but the ground was quick and I’m willing to forgive her that. She was fairly competitive off a 6lb higher mark a few starts ago, and was running well on her chase debut when tipping up. The handicapper has given her a real chance, blinkers are applied for the first time, the Tizzard horses are running well and Mr Clements claiming 7lb on the back of his triumph at Cheltenham is another positive.4:30
This isn’t a strong event and Paddy Power who are the only firm to have priced this up overnight have WHATEVER NEXT at a generous looking 25/1 and clear outsider of the party. This horse was formally trained in Ireland and won a Beginners Chase at Galway in July 2009 on his final start there. He hasn’t yet scored fo Chris Gordon, but he was a fair fifth in the Southern National off a mark of 129 for him last season. He hasn’t been in great form this season either, but on New Years Eve at Warwick he ran well when fourth to Mr Big and that was off 108. His three runs since have been very poor, but all have been on very testing ground, and it appears to me that he prefers a better surface, which he gets here. Timmy Murphy rode him at Warwick and is back aboard here. He is now competing off a mark of just 91, thats a rapid drop of 17lb and he is surely worth chancing at the price.
Present A Star is a short priced favourite often winning well on his debut under rules for Sarah Humphrey at Plumpton a week ago. However I’m not sure that beating the plodders that are Zimbabwe and Ethopia warrants him to be a red hot favourite, and i’ll be looking to oppose him at odds of less than 2/1. Duke Of Ormond strikes me as being a bit of a character and after two good runs you have to wonder whether another will be forthcoming. Ginolad has been very disappointing since his debut in this country, but he showed more last time and is interesting, along with Sole Agent who was last seen in a point to point at Detling.In the 5:00 I’ll probably find myself supporting O Malley’s Oscar, although if Pepito Collonges looks well, they’re reasons to think he will do better than on his return from a long absence at Folkestone last time. I won’t be making my mind up for the bumper until I’ve had a look at them.
4:00 – Celtic Ballard – 0.75pt each way at 10/1 or better
4:30 – Whatever Next – 1pt each way at 25/1 (Paddy Power, would accept 20’s)KELSO
3:40
I’m a little concerned by the form of the Amos yard at the moment, but that aside 14/1 on BOB’S DREAM really does look like good value. He went into the "notebook" last time at Ayr as he was one of the few to make up a lot of ground from the back of the pack, in a race in which it paid to race handily. That was a marked improvement on his previous efforts this season and he has to be of interest, returned to fences at his favourite venue. He doesn’t want extremes of ground, so Good to Soft is perfect and he races off the same mark from which he won off over C&D last season. He is well suited to a strong gallop, and with Carrietau (who he defeated here last season) and Raysrock in the line up, that looks virtually assured.
3:40 – Bob’s Dream – 1pt each way at 14/1 (B365, PP were 16’s earlier, would accept 12’s)
That is my only bet on an interesting card. Wyse Hill Teabags is a useful novice and it’ll take a useful effort to stop him from taking the first. I’ve got a lay of the day in the second, see below, whilst I would have been tempted by the old boy Bywell Beau in the thid if there weren’t two that were likely to take him on for the lead. The 4:10 is full of poorly handicapped horses and I do think Leith Walk is the most likely winner, but the current price reflects her chance. I’ll be keeping an eye on Surprise Vendor as I think he’s being lined up for a race in the next few weeks, but they will want him to come down a few more pounds and I think this trip is too far. Two of the norths top hunters take each other on in the 4:40, and I suspect the eleven year old Robbers Glen will just have a bit too much for the youngster Quotice De Poyans. Kelso bumpers often produce a decent horse and this one looks no different with several interesting entries.
LAY OF THE DAY
Blackpool Billy looks like a horse without a trip, and although he keeps being well supported in the market, he has yet to deliver. I can give chances to all of his opponents and at around 7/4 he’s worth taking on.
Well what an eventful day that was at Lingfield. I’ve been there many many times and pretty much every time the meeting has passed without an incident of note. Thankfully it seems that Aidan Coleman is ok after his nasty looking tumble, and Rodi Greenes injuries aren’t as bad as first feared, although it sounds as if he will be out for a while. Buona Sarah sadly suffered a fatal fall at the flight in the front of the stands in that first race.
A small profit for the blog as two of the three selections were placed, both at Lingfield. Celtic Ballard ran much better although she found Mut’ab on a going day in the seller. Whatever Next finished third at an Sp of 20/1, the hot favourite (went off a silly price) flopped, and the race was won by the outsider Sole Agent (33’s), given that he was in my top three I really ought to have backed him at that price. My disappointment passed quickly as Pepito Collonges won the next at 25/1. I did give him a positive mention in the write up, but as it was his second run back after a long break, I wanted to have a look at him the paddock beforehand. He looked well and hence I had a little on, but I didn’t envisage him winning that easily. I hardly ever do forecasts, but I still sighed when the exacta dividend of over £200 was announced over the tannoy, as O Malley’s Oscar finished second. But I really musn’t grumble and I really ought to go racing more often, as paddock inspection really can pay off. If anyone wants to pay me to go racing more often under some guise let me know………………….
I’ve watched the Kelso races and Bob’s Dream was never really in contention and was disappointing. The lay of the day Blackpool Billy refused early on, given his injury problems, perhaps something was hurting him, as he hasn’t shown any wayward tendencies in the past. I was very sad to hear that Robbers Glen had to be put down. We’ve lost several big names this season, and whilst they are all upsetting, his passing seems especially sad, given how close Val Jackson obviously was to him, and what a star he was for her. He’s won a stack of races, both under rules and in points, and twice ran very will in the Cheltenham Foxhunters. I never got to see him in the flesh, but he looked like a lovely, big old fashioned steeplechaser and I can’t imagine how she must be feeling, such a shame.
Karen Mclintock is getting a bit of a reputation for bumper horses and her Nodform Richard took the finale. I imagine she, like Alan Swinbank makes the game pay by selling these horses on. Perhaps Howard Johnson and Graham Wylie will take the winner off their hands for some exorbitant amount. Graham Wyle is obviously an intelligent guy and yet he seems intent on letting Mr Johnson spend ridiculous amounts of money on any horse who has won it’s bumper/point to point, or anything trained on the flat by Mark Prescott (sorry Sir!) that has shown a bit of ability. Tidal Bay has picked up some decent placed prize money for him, but only Frankie Figg has won a half decent race this season (Grand Sefton). He has had over 75 horses run for him so far this season and whilst the strike rate reads well enough 19%, it’s not hard to pick up £2,000 novice hurdles with horses that cost £200,000 off the flat! I should think they’re a few people who would think they could do a far better job given just a quarter of which they spend on horses each year.Anyway enough rambling, onto Tuesday’s racing. We have jumping action from Kempton, but nothing stands out to me, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Smart Catch turns over Shuil Royale and Raya Star in the first. I was most impressed with him last time, and he looks just the sort to carrying on improving.
Over at Southwell I’ve been waiting for True Red to run in a handicap over 5f, but I was hoping it would be less competitive than this one is, and there are too many front runners in the line up fo me to want to get involved on this occasion.
Onto Exeter then, but even there I don’t fancy much, although I had found one in the last, hopefully it’ll be worth the wait.Total P/L +64.5
5:20
I’ve not made life easy for myself by picking an eighteen runner novice handicap, but I do like these races. I will be annoyed with myself if Flying Award, who did me a favour at Newton Abbot on Sunday, goes in under a penalty, but quotes of 9/2 or thereabouts make no appeal. As mentioned, this race has been priced up tonight and at 20/1 I want to be with ROOFTOP RAINBOW. He won a point to point in Ireland last season, and whilst it’s always hard to evaluate the form of those, he did finish in front of a couple of horses who have since shown a fair level of ability under rules. He has had three starts in this country so far, in novice hurdles and he has shown ability in all three. The first of those was over 2m3f here on New Years Day. He made the running and stuck on well enough in a fair contest. Gunna Be A Devil who finished just in front of him has been competitive off 112, whilst Accordintolawrence who was just behind him, has won a novice at Fontwell. He was ridden from off the pace next time at Ffos Las and made late headway up the straight to finish fourth over 2m6f. Last time at Ludlow he took over at the head of affairs after a mile or so, but gradually faded as they quickened up and finished a fairly well beaten fourth. The second in that race was Swingkeel who had an official of rating of 123 when winning at the weekend. Having reviewed his action, I do think that faster ground will actually suit him better (he won his point on good ground) and whilst Lord Americo’s (his sire) don’t seem to have much of a preference in general, his best offspring, the likes of Lord Noelie and Dempsey were at their best on decent ground. A few of these do have slight stamina doubts, which he doesn’t, and whilst I’m not suggesting he is thrown in off 100 on his handicap debut, I do think he has shown enough to suggest he can run well in a race like this, and at 20/1 he looks overpriced.
5:20 – Rooftop Rainbow – 1pt each way at 20/1 (VC, B365, wouldn’t accept less than 16/1)
*Update at Midday, Rooftop Rainbow has been backed from 20’s to a general 10’s. This is one of the reasons why I try and get things done the night before, in case the price is missed, and because mistakes are made quite often by the few companies that attempt to price this type of race up, as they don’t have much of a guide from their Betfair bible!*
Rob, you’ve got the job as our on course representative if you see one of interest in a selling hurdle
Meanwhile, I’ll oppose your selection with one who’s likely to end up an even bigger price – Whereveryougoigo. For some reason all of Peter Bowen’s horses seem to require good going or better and this horse is encountering his favoured surface after three runs on unsuitably soft ground. I’d say he’s crying out for this sort of trip on breeding. I’ll be taking the big prices on Betfair.
Tuffers
haha, oh how good would it be to have Lord Grimthorpes or Bruce Raymonds job, etc etc.
I don’t imagine your interested in anything in the upcoming Stratford seller! I’m surprised to see Grand Diamond in one at Haydock, he’s not a bad little dual purpose horse, but aged seven and from the Goldie yard he’s only going to go one way you’d imagine. I saw you commented on Westlin Winds the other day, both he and Simarian appear to have lost their way of late, although I’d think there would be more hope in returning the former to better form (not a fan of Charlie Egerton). Not much in the Bangor claimer either, keep looking you’ll find something!
I can see where your going with the Bowen horse, your right most of his do seem to want faster ground. They’ve not exactly been easy on this one have they, ten starts since making his debut in June. I guess the main worry is whether he’ll get the trip at this stage, but at the price that may be worth chancing. Good luck with that one.
When I put the selections up, if prices are available and I think they are fair I will quote that price, but more often than not I use the exchanges, primarily because most of the horses I back aren’t short priced favourites and the odds on offer are usually that bit more generous. Obviously the win and place markets are changing all the time and it’s not viable or fair to use those figures for blog purposes. If I did the + figure would be much bigger as 66/1 winner Another Dimension had a betfair sp of 130/1. Anyway I digress, I mention this because last night was one exception when I actually took the bookmaker price of 20/1 with Paddy Power. The race had three non runners and of course Rooftop Rainbow preceded to finish fourth, ok if you backed him on the exchanges! In all seriousness I’m not too unhappy, my thinking wasn’t too far wrong, he was only just pipped for third and was beaten just four lengths overall.
It was only a couple of days ago that I said connections were missing a trick by constantly holding Basford Bob up in his races, well they didn’t hold him up at Kempton today on a quick reappearance, and after making virtually all the running, he won!! Given that he clearly needs to be going left handed and the fact he only ran on Saturday I think that was a useful effort from a horse who clearly has a lot of quirks and ability in equal measure. I think he’s potentially a 135/140 horse, but he could go either way from here on in and I’ll be watching his progress with interest.I don’t want to turn this post into a soapbox, and I really should know better than to even look at the Betfair Forum, but I was amazed at the outrage caused by the drift and defeat of Marino Prince in the Exeter opener. The Jim Best yard isn’t one of my favourites, because they obviously do like a punt, but the plain fact of the matter is that horse was never an odds-on shot. I never take handicap ratings at face value, just like Racing Post rating or Timeform ratings, they aren’t always that accurate, but on this occasion I thought Marino Princes 111 compared to Leopard Hills rating of 100 was about spot on. Why then was Marino Prince so short giving 15lb to Leopard Hills?? In the event after making a bad mistake Marino Prince did run below form, but I don’t really have much sympathy for anyone backing such a horse, at such a price.
In other news Tidal Bay is being targeted at the Grand National. I wasn’t exactly singing Howard Johnson or Graham Wylies praises yesterday, and I’m not about to start. Granted the national fences can sometimes bring out the best in quirky characters, it can often sweeten them up a little. However one thing it never ever does is bring out the best of poor jumpers. Yes Tidal Bay is in the main a safe jumper, but he is never going to win races because of his jumping and despite the fact the fences aren’t as fearsome as they once were, I personally think it’s a ridiculous decision to run their star horse in a race that clearly isn’t made for him. I’m less surprised by What A Friends intended participation, although it’s clearly an afterthought and I’m not convinced he’s really got the heart for it.
I booked some of the limited offer free tickets for next month and will be using the majority of them, but as I will be heading up north to Beverley and possibly Ripon, I’ve decided I won’t now be going to Redcar on the 18th April. If anyone would like these two tickets, drop me a message and I’ll forward you the confirmation e-mail I received, as you’ll need to show that at the entrance. Also I will be going to Epsom on the 20th April, but have four tickets and only now require two, if you are planning/want to go there, again drop me a message and I’ll arrange to meet you at the entrance etc.
Plenty of small fields at all three meetings on Wednesday, and like today at Kempton it looks likely the front of the market will dominate in the majority of races. At Haydock I might have a small bet on Master Fong in the seller, as he should do better back on fast ground after a small break, but it’s a trappy race, as are the rest.
Total P/L +62.5
WARWICK
4:40
This is a handicap hurdle over 2m5f for mares’ only and the top weight is a horse I know a lot about. Thedeboftheyear is certainly back on a mark she can win off, but whether she quite has the pace to win this on ground a little fast than ideal I’m not sure. She had run two fair races in defeat but was a little disappointing last time at Chepstow and reluctantly I’ll pass her over. Veiled was sent off favourite on her reappearance at Doncaster last time, but she didn’t even manage to fill be the bridesmaid……..as she trailed in sixth. Even if she improves on that, she does have stamina questions to answer, as does one of the others that will be towards the front of the market, Mayolynn. This race won’t be priced up until the morning, but I would be very happy with the "forecast" 33/1 on DARAZ ROSE. This is a trappy affair and she really shouldn’t be a rank outsider in this field. She hasn’t won since October 2009, although to be fair she was off the track for a while. After she won that day at Uttoxeter I did think she might go on and win more races, but soon after she was put over fences. Despite finishing second a couple of times over the larger obstacles, her jumping was never all that fluent and her two starts this season have been back over hurdles. She looked to be in need of the run (has needed a run in other seasons) first time up at Taunton and was tailed off when falling two out. A month passed and she was then seen finishing a fairly well beaten ninth last time at Huntingdon. She was struggling at halfway that day, but she did actually keep on fairly well without looking like a winner in waiting. She should now be fully fit after those two outings, and her overall record suggests faster ground will be in her favour. She has been dropped 5lb to a mark of 100 (she won off 99) which gives her a chance, and with doubts of one sort or another over all of her rivals, I’m happy to take a chance on her at a fairly big price.
4:40 – Daraz Rose – 0.75pt each way at 20/1 or better –
HEREFORDTwo bets on the card, courtesy of horses rated 75 & 85, my cup of tea compared to Haydock!
3:40
The interesting point about this race is the fact that they are certain to go a good gallop with several of these having a preference for making the running. A P Ling couldn’t take advantage of a good opportunity in a seller at Fakenham two starts ago. She got a soft lead around the sharp circuit but faded close home. She’ll be looking to make it I’m sure, whilst Sparkling Brook is another than nearly always tries to lead. She is pretty consistent at this lowly level but she hasn’t been able to go that close granted easy leads in the past, so she doesn’t appeal in a race where she’ll be taken on. Any money for Wallace Monument would be interesting, but he’s shown precious little, and even less since coming back from an abscence, but he too went from the front last time. Tiger Dream is the other than often likes to front run, although he can also be ridden from off the pace, and I’d suggest that would be the best option for him here. I have been tempted to back him a couple of times recently and I do have a suspicion he will pop up in a race like this, and perhaps the first time tongue tie will see him put in an improved performance. However on this occasion DIDDLEY DEE is the one that appeals. He’s only had nine starts in his life to date, and one of his better efforts (if not his best) was actually here when second in a weak bumper on fast ground. He then went on to run creditably on good ground when finishing mid-div in a fair Aintree bumper. He’s had two starts so far this season, the first of those on unsuitable heavy ground at Uttoxeter when running off 73 in a handicap. Last time out at Ludlow he ran in a seller (non-handicap) and acquitted himself very well in the circumstances, beaten only twenty lengths in total and finishing amongst higher rated rivals. Of course he has paid for that by putting hiked up 15lb in the handicap. Whilst he may now not been all that well handicapped, I do think think this race will be run to suit. From what I’ve seen of him he looks a fairly straightforward ride, and he should be able to sit off what is likely to be a fast early gallop. The ground we know he handles and he has gone well here before, so taking everything into consideration I think he’s worth backing.
4:50
I was disappointed when CARYSS LAD was taken out at Huntingdon the other day, although in hindsight it was probably a good thing as the hot favourite that day romped home. This looks an easier opportunity and I am very keen on his chances. This is what I wrote prior to that Huntingdon entry
"His only career victory came in a novice hurdle over this distance on good to firm ground in 2007! He’s obviously had problems since then. But I’ve seen enough in five starts this season to suggest some ability remains. He didn’t run too badly here (Huntingdon) in November only fading after three out on softer ground when racing off a mark of 90. Last time at Sedgefield again he hinted that he could still pick up a race, and wasn’t given too hard a time. He’s come down another 5lb to a mark of just 75, and this is the quickest ground he’s been able to race on in a couple of years."
I don’t really need to add too much to that. I honestly believe he is handicapped to win a race like this, as he has travelled well in a couple of races this season on softer than ideal ground to suggest he is still better than a 75 rated horse.
Dangers, well Welcome Stranger is the obvious one, and he probably does deserve to be favourite, but they all finished in a heap last time at Warwick and I think that run flatters him slightly, and he does have to prove he gets this trip. The same comment applies to Jinksy Minx who shaped as though she wanted further last time, but 2m4f is a fair distance for a four year old filly in March and although long term she may well be better than this lot, I do think she’ll struggle to see off her elders despite the allowance. Gainsborough’s Art disappointed me the other day at Warwick and is yet another with stamina doubts.3:40 – Diddley Dee – 1.5pt win at 6/1 or better –
4:50 – Cary’s Lad – 2pts each way at 5/1 or better – Was 13/2 but now generally 11/2 (10p rule 4 will apply to most 13/2 bets)
Hi Robert
Enjoying your postings. Re corals, still trying to sort that out. Will keep you and other TRF posters informed of developments!!
Re Bev and Ripon, both lovely courses…went there often in my teens and early 20’s, 15 years ago as a york lad orginally (now some how living in rugby!?!) and both good days out…especially in those summers while on summer break from uni. Seem to remember I think backing Bollin Joanne in a sprint handicap and at time winning in relative terms, back then, a small fortune!! Hope you enjoy both of them. Re ripon, are you driving? Hope so as pain to get to by public tranpsort!!
In temrs of Epsom, potentially interested in tix but need to see tom if and the good lady wife and I can get A/L from work. If others come back with a definite and request tix understand allocating to them. However if no-one does in next 24 hours could I be considered. Will get back to you tom eve if thats ok?
All the best and continuing to always read your articles…and when get time follow your tips…thanks for the wimmers you’ve pointed me towards.
All the best
yorkiedips
Hi Yorkie
No worries, no one has asked for them yet, so just let me know as and when if you think you might be able to make use of them and keep on at Corals!
A 5pt profit on Wednesday as thankfully Diddley Dee drifted having opened up at 5’s on course (almost 6’s on the exchanges by then) he went all the way out to 7’s and just about managed to get up near the line from Tiger Dream who looked to have sealed a winning lead, but either through reluctance or sheer tiredness (probably a bit of both) he hung right late on and Diddley Dee, despite a blunder at the last won his first race. It was a very poor affair, with A P Ling in third, despite not getting her way in front. If the handicapper puts him up more than 3lb for that I’d suggest connections should feel very hard done by.
Carys’s Lad ran a very strange race as he jumped poorly, was struggling just after halfway and then consented to sprout wings turning in and was a fast finishing third (of course the non runner brought the field down to 7). It was completely at odds with what I would have expected (travel well, and not find much). I don’t think holding him up out the back when he was just about the strongest stayer in the field, was the smartest move, although to be fair given how soon he was struggling it probably made no difference. He might be worth one more chance if he turns out again over 2m6f or similar somewhere, although I’ll want a better price next time around.
Finally Daraz Rose, who was held up at Warwick, and started to struggle down the far side. At one stage it looked like she might be able to get involved, but her brief effort petered out and she was fairly well beaten. It was an improvement on her previous two efforts this season, but she’ll need to improve a fair bit again if she is regain the winning thread.I had to laugh at a comment Graham Cunningham threw in the direction of Peter Naughton on Racing UK this afternoon. The latter suggested he was always put off when horses had the words "found nil" in their race write ups, to which Graham replied "Well what don’t you watch the races rather than relying on the comments" Which of course is completely true, just like ratings, comments are just the view of one or two people. I’m not about to start slagging off people, but I’ve worked in a few places and have often wondered how certain people have managed to get (and keep) their job. Peter Naughton is in my opinion just about the worst member of the Racing UK team. He adds nothing of any note to any conversation, and I feel for anyone who pays £1.50 a minute to listen to his views/tips! Although to be fair to him, I think he knows more than Ms Bird on Attheraces. On a more positive note I’m currently listening to Lydia and Eddie whilst typing this, and they are both excellent!
More small fields on Thursday, I like trying to beat the bookies who try and price some of the lesser handicaps overnight, and I’ve found three that might fit the bill.
Total P/L +67.5
SOUTHWELL
4:45
Lets start at Southwell, and another horse (like Carys’s Lad) who I was interested in recently before he was made a late non runner and thats REEFER BEEFER. He was due to run at Taunton last Monday and was well backed all morning before being pulled out. The comments I made the other day pretty much still apply
"REEFER BEEFER has looked pretty moody on occasions in his short career so far, but I still think he’s worth a little support in this moderate staying handicap. He is bred to want this sort of trip, but this is the first time he’s run over further than 2m3f. That run was actually around here on quick ground, and it was his best effort to date, when he finished fifth of fourteen, although beaten a fair way. He made his handicap debut off a mark of 100, which seemed very harsh, last time in a bog at Lingfield, and he barely went a yard that day. The handicapper has been quick to drop him 10lb to 90, and whilst that could still prove to be on the high side, it does at least give him a more realistic chance"
This is a similar contest to the one he was due to participate in the other day and one other thing to add might be that he has one had one start going left handed (on his debut) and he actually ran quite well that day. It may mean nothing, but it’s certainly not a negative.
Of the others Supreme Team looks the most likely to run his race, and he’ll be hard to keep out the places. Saulty Max has been priced up fairly short, which I’m not too surprised about, but I think he would prefer more cut in the ground and the 6/4 currently on offer looks far too short.4:45 – 1.5pt each way Reefer Beefer at 10/1 (VC, only firm to have priced up, but I think thats a fair price, wouldn’t accept less than 8’s) –
CARLISLE3:25
BALLAMUSIC made his reappearance and his debut for Andrew Parker twenty four days ago at Catterick over 2m3f and he only managed to beat one home despite "only" being beaten twenty five lengths by the winner. He was previously with Alan King and he had some useful bumper/novice hurdle form, but was then not seen for over two years. He showed just modest form on his three starts in 2010 for that yard and was subsequently sold cheaply. He never really got involved last time and the fact he went off at 20’s suggested they didn’t expect much. It was a quiet run around out the back and he should be sharper for that. The extra furlong and this much stiffer track should help, given that he stayed three miles as a five year old, and he has also been dropped another 5lb. The in-form Samizdat might just get found out close home over this trip here, whilst Classic Henri got beat by Amjad last time. The fact that he is second favourite tells you all you need to know about the weakness of this event, and therefore 25’s on the selection looks rather generous!
5:10
Wee George is a worthy favourite in this, and this giant horse who has clearly had his problems may finally be able to break his duck. However he is around the 7/2 mark at the moment, which is only value if you think he should be about 5/2, and I don’t, so whilst I think he’s the most likely winner, the horse I’m going to back is FRITH. He’s only won once and has also had his share of injury problems, but I thought he ran well enough on his comeback at Newcastle over hurdles, as despite being beaten miles in the end, he showed up well until turning in (having been keen early on) and then wasn’t given a hard time thereafter. Last time here in a similar race, he unseated early on, but he was only 12’s that day when Banoge was 7’s and finished third. Two years ago here (might have been a while ago, but he’s not had many starts since then) he finished three lengths behind Wee George giving him a stone and yet today he gets a 1lb from him. Whilst he obviously has his well being to prove at present, the fact that Sue Smiths charge is 7/2 whilst Frith is 20’s, to my mind that difference in price isn’t warranted.
Several of these take each other on regularly, Troodos Jet despite having won here would probably prefer an easier two miles (sprint winner years ago for Alan Berry!) Ice Image has found a bit of form recently and with Alistair Findlay taking 7lb off again he should be in the mix.3:25 – Ballamusic – 1pt each way at 25/1 (B365, wouldn’t accept less than 18’s) –
5:10 – Frith – 1pt each way at 20/1 (B365, wouldn’t accept less than 16’s) –
LAY OF THE DAYA STONE’S THROW looks pretty paceless, and I think he’ll find things happening too quickly for him over two miles around Southwell on good ground. It’s a poor race but a competitive one and I’d be surprised if he breaks his duck, at less than 3/1 he would rate a lay in my book non runner
Hi Robert,
Really like reading your posts and blog.
Had Diddley Dee in a patent and e/w acca along with Veiled 4.40W
let down by Thanks For Coming 3.50 for a tidy sum.
Oh well, at leat I live to fight another day.Thanks!
[SOUTHWELL
4:45
Lets start at Southwell, and another horse (like Carys’s Lad) who I was interested in recently before he was made a late non runner and thats REEFER BEEFER. He was due to run at Taunton last Monday and was well backed all morning before being pulled out. The comments I made the other day pretty much still apply
"REEFER BEEFER has looked pretty moody on occasions in his short career so far, but I still think he’s worth a little support in this moderate staying handicap. He is bred to want this sort of trip, but this is the first time he’s run over further than 2m3f. That run was actually around here on quick ground, and it was his best effort to date, when he finished fifth of fourteen, although beaten a fair way. He made his handicap debut off a mark of 100, which seemed very harsh, last time in a bog at Lingfield, and he barely went a yard that day. The handicapper has been quick to drop him 10lb to 90, and whilst that could still prove to be on the high side, it does at least give him a more realistic chance"
This is a similar contest to the one he was due to participate in the other day and one other thing to add might be that he has one had one start going left handed (on his debut) and he actually ran quite well that day. It may mean nothing, but it’s certainly not a negative.
Of the others Supreme Team looks the most likely to run his race, and he’ll be hard to keep out the places. Saulty Max has been priced up fairly short, which I’m not too surprised about, but I think he would prefer more cut in the ground and the 6/4 currently on offer looks far too short.4:45 – 1.5pt each way Reefer Beefer at 10/1 (VC, only firm to have priced up, but I think thats a fair price, wouldn’t accept less than 8’s) –
I see it touched 8’s, Robert, so hopefully you were on. Judging by the winning distance I think an accurate description of his performance might be ‘p*ssed up’. Keep up the good work
Tuffers, I had a little each way with VC last evening (it’s hardly a winning account, I think they are careful with the low grade ones they price up the night before) and then yes thankfully he did reach 8’s and a tad more on the exchanges so I had a little more on. He’s a nice horse who was always going to need three miles and better ground, a couple of the more fancied runners didn’t run their race but he did it nicely and should go in again.
Soapstar, Well done on picking Veiled, I couldn’t have had her at the price.
A 10pt profit with the main bet on Thursday Reefer Beefer winning nicely at Southwell and now he is running over the right trip on the right ground I’m sure he’ll win again. I only managed to have a little on at 10’s last night, and as he touched 8’s before finally going off at 7’s (having been 9/2 at lunch) I will use the 8/1 price for the purposes of profit/loss on here as I think thats fair (the one annoying thing about pricewise is when they claim a 20/1 winner, when it was only 20’s for 5 minutes in a branch of Corals that opens at 8am and restricts you to a fiver, you get my point)
Over at Carlisle Frith ran well and was beaten too far in finishing just outside the places in fourth. I’m sure he’ll be winning soon (maybe at Perth?) providing they can keep him sound. The writing was on the wall for Ballamusic before he’d even started, he could be seen sweating up very badly down at the start and never really looked happy in the race. In the event neither or the two favourites both of whom I wasn’t too keen on were even placed, with Samizdat matched at 1.01 for a place before fading badly after the last, just a shame it wasn’t my money that was matched!The title of the 3:00 at Southwell "Betting Secrets Revealed At racingprofits.net Hunter Chase" caught my attention, and out of interest I logged onto the aforementioned site. I didn’t expect to be blown away and I wasn’t disappointed. Apparently you can subscribe to some "video training" that will turn you into a "betting professional" in no time at all. Although it seems that despite having this training you also really need to subscribe to his service as he has gained many contacts including top jockeys and trainers and he will share all this "info" with you. The 100k a year he claims to be making from his betting obviously isn’t enough for him, perhaps if he gets a few subscribers he’ll be able to afford a nicer wardrobe than the one in the intro video on his homepage.
Right straight onto Friday’s action then. I’m never that happy when I see Newbury on the fixture list, but that’s where I’ll start.
Total P/L +77.5
NEWBURY
2:10
KINGS FLAGSHIP is a horse I noted at Wincanton last time and he looks worthy of support in what looks a fairly ordinary opening maiden hurdle. He made his debut in a polytrack bumper at Lingfield in March 09 and ran well despite being tapped for toe when the sprint came after a typical slow early gallop. He wasn’t seen for two years until making his hurdling debut a couple of weeks ago at Wincanton in what was probably a slightly weaker race than this in truth. He shaped nicely that day and I’m sure this step up in trip will see him in an even better light. He’s a half-brother to the super talented Hells Bay and like him, he seems to have a very nice action, suited to a sound surface. The "bounce" factor is a concern, but whilst I don’t have any hard facts to back up this claim, I do believe for some reason it effects more established performers. What I mean by that is I don’t find that a horse that maybe has had problems before making a belated racecourse debut, is as likely to run poorly on his second start a few weeks later, than a horse thats had thirty career starts who returns, and flops on it’s second start after a break. Anyway at the likely odds I think he is worth chancing.
Oasis Knight is very talented but he flopped last time at Kempton over this trip after a really good debut here behind Al Ferof over 2 miles. He was none too predictable on the flat and backing his kind at short prices, will in the long run, end in failure.Special Occasion got my support here over 2m2f last time and he turned in a mullish effort, consenting to run on when the race was all over. He steps up to 2m6f in the 2:40, which may help matters slightly, but I really didn’t like his attitude last time and he can run without my money on him now.
3:15
MASTER EDDY won this race last year, albeit off a 5lb lower mark and I fancy his chances of winning it again. I guess most people would think that given he’s an eleven year old he would struggle off a higher mark, but the fact is this former useful novice hasn’t had much racing in his career, and all three of his career victories have been over this C&D. The ground this time around looks like it will be slightly quicker, but I don’t see that being a problem, in fact I’ve always thought he would be better on good ground. He’s had a couple of starts over fences so far this season, to be honest I’m not sure why this late in his career, but he did run very well in heavy ground to be second at Carlisle. Last time at Exeter he seemed to unship David England and then fall to the ground himself (poor camera angle) but he was quickly on his feet and chasing the pack, so I doubt very much that has affected him.
Of the others, I think Dune Shine will be suited by this step up in trip, but the overall form of the Sherwood horses at the moment is a concern. Kasban looks to be an improving sort, and he won nicely at Kempton recently, he’s certainly one of the main threats.2:10 – Kings Flagship – 0.75pt each way at 16/1 or better (33’s RP Forecast!)
3:15 – Master Eddy – 1pt each way at 10/1 (VC, B365, wouldn’t accept lower than 9’s)Wild Desert is already the subject of some support in the 4:25. At 14’s he looked quite an interesting proposition back down in trip on his debut for the in-form Chalie Longsdon. But it looks like he’ll probably be going off single figures now in a fairly competitive little heat, so i’ll leave that one alone.
SEDGEFIELD
Lots of Sedgefield regulars in a couple of the handicaps and a few short priced ones that should win the novice events, that leaves me with the 2:50
2:50
Sometimes no matter how much I say/write about a horses chances, I can’t really describe why I think a horse is capable of better. From years of watching tens of thousands of races I sometimes just find myself thinking that a certain horse will do better and SEMINAL MOMENT is one of those. She was an in and out performer on the flat for James Given and her finest hour came when winning over 1m6f on the fibresand at Southwell. Any horse that stays that trip there will probably want further than two miles over hurdles, and I think thats the case with this one. I’ve reviewed her hurdling starts to date, and it’s fair to say that she hasn’t been ridden with much vigour thus far. On her debut here over C&D she was a long way back for most of the race, but she did run on quite eye catchingly in the closing stages and wasn’t far off reaching a place behind the runaway winner. Granted that was a weak affair, but even a reproduction of that effort off this mark of 77 here would see her fairly competitive, and I’m sure she’s capable of better than that. Recent efforts haven’t been so encouraging, but despite her fibresand win, I’m not convinced soft ground over hurdles has been suiting her. She’s been making a few mistakes and getting too far behind early on. This better ground should help and I can’t see anything in here making the running at a furious pace, so I would hope she will sit handier than she has been doing. As I said with Bob’s Dream the other day, the form of the stable is a little concerning, but they did have a winner a couple of weeks ago, and a placed effort, so I might be reading too much into a couple of recent disappointing runners.
Miss Tarentella could be very dangerous if she adopts a front running role,but she hasn’t been doing that of late.2:50 – 1pt each way Seminal Moment at 14/1 or better (hoping for 20’s)
WOLVERHAMPTON
Yes thats right I’m backing one at Wolverhampton!
6:15
A rare all-weather selection in this modest handicap. The ten runners have had sixty nine career starts to date without success. One of them will get off the mark here and hopefully that one will be CENTURY DANCER. She showed some promise here on a few occasions at the back end of last year, most notably when a fast finishing third over this trip in November. She doesn’t look short of speed and probably found 9f too far at this stage on her next two starts, and had probably had enough for the time being when last seen at Lingfield. She isn’t ideally drawn here in ten, but I reckon now she’s had a little break, she is capable of a bold show in such a weak heat. She’s likely to be a fair price as I’m sure both Sleeping Brave and Neytiri will dominate the market. The former showed more last time at Lingfield on his first start as a three year old, but you could throw a blanket over the first eight there and I wouldn’t be rushing in to back him at a short priced, based on that suspect piece of form. Neytiri is a consistent individual at this lowly level, but he has no secrets from anybody and whilst he is sure to be thereabouts, I wouldn’t want to be supporting him at a short price either.
6:15 – Century Dancer – 0.75pt each way at 12/1 or better (I would love the Sporting Lifes forecast 33’s!)
- Total Posts 17716
You’ve talked me in to backing Kings Flagship, Robert, but Master Eddy looks up against it. Senor Shane was travelling well when coming down behind Equity Release last time and Cool Strike looks to have been let in lightly for Alex Hales; the step up in trip will suit him down to the ground.
AJ, just caught your post before I hit the sack. I agree that Cool Strike is potentially well in, thorough stayer on the flat and improving in that sphere. But I don’t think anything of the race that Senor Shane ran in at Warwick, everything finished close up and the pace they went he should still have been going well, but having said that 14’s is a fair price i guess. It’s a competitive race, and I rarely do well at Newbury (grade 1 track, yuck) so I expect to see Cool Strike beating Senor Shane, but at least can we have Master Eddy snatching third please.
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