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P/L +£10.80
Thanks Deegs, much appreciated.
Tuffers, I took my own advice and had a massive £10 on at 25/1 last night and just another fiver at 16’s earlier today, taking into account the other two I backed as well, about the same as having a 6/1 winner (although I did lay the favourite and Commanche Dawn for a place, it could have been very messy!)
Well I have to be happy with how that race went today, the two that I really couldn’t fancy didn’t run, which meant a 20p rule 4 for me on the 25/1. Ilewin Tom opened 16’s on course and get backed into 10’s beating Quartz Du Montceau into second. Oponce clearly didn’t get home, but he will be of interest over 2m4f. Ukrainian Star ran very flat, maybe feeling the effects of a hard race last time, whilst Commanche Dawn drifted, to the price she should have been in the first place and struggled throughout.
Tomorrows preview is for the 4:30 Leicester. I’m doubling up a bit here, as this race involves one of my notebook horses, and I think he’s in the right race to have really strong claims, although with O’Neill, Moore, Musson and Curley all having a runner, anything is possible!
4:30 Leicester – Wednesday 2nd February
1 – Easton Clump – As per my notebook notes, I think the bare 2 mile trip will prove to suit him well. Has been running in some fair novice company and not getting home over 2m4f/2m6f. He travels well in his races, and ran well enough in a jumpers bumper at Southwell. The ground will be fine, this is by far the easiest task he has faced and i’ll be really disappointed if he doesn’t at least reach the places, off a mark of 95.
2 – Mayolynn – She has shown enough ability on more than one occasion to win a contest such as this, and probably ran her best race last time at Warwick. She wasn’t disgraced behind Frascati Park over C&D earlier this season, and looks just about the most solid option in the contest, without making any appeal great appeal at the likely odds.
3 – Mauritino – Typical for one from the yard, in that it’s virtually impossible to get a handle on him. He did win a race of this nature last year Hereford, that was on Good to Firm however. In the main he looks less than enthusiastic, and even Mr Mccoy hasn’t been able to get a tune out of him this season. The tongue tie is deployed again, and the champ will be doing well to get him home in front I think.
4 – Mut’ab – Formally a decent sort on the flat for Clive Brittain and certainly one of the more interesting contenders. That said he was in decline on the level and hasn’t shown an awful lot so far over hurdles. This is obviously a lot easier though, and you couldn’t rule him out with any confidence whatsoever.
5 – Me Fein – Finished miles behind Mayolynn last time (although on his Huntindon form with her, there is much to choose between them) and no obvious reason to suspect things should be diferent today. Obviously given his stable you do wonder if he might just be capable of better, but the signs are that he just isn’t anywhere near as effective as he is on an artifical surface. He has only showed a tiny glimpse of promise over hurdles and is hard to fancy on what he’s shown in this spehere so far.
6 – Mandalay Prince – A modest flat handicapper who has shown nothing so far over hurdles. He finished a long way behind Me Fein and Mayolynn at Huntingdon and ran very poorly over C&D last time. He has been losing ground at his hurdles, and although this is his first handicap start, you couldn’t fancy him on what he’s shown so far.
7 – Imperial Royale – Exposed as modest, but he has at least won over hurdles, although that was 5 years ago over C&D. He’s not been in bad form at a lowly level on his last few starts, but you get the feeling one or two of his rivals might now show their true worth in this handicap, whereas he is what he is. May just about manage to grab a place, but he would be a shock winner for me.
8 – Aboukir Bay – He has completely lost the plot for his current yard, over both hurdles and fences, and couldn’t be fancied at all at present.
9 – Pezula – A very modest mare whose only real form of any note was on her handicapping debut (close up 6th of 11 at Bangor last season). All may not be lost however and her last run at Southwell wasn’t as bad the pulled up may suggest. She didn’t see out the 2m4f trip having travelled well enough until half a mile out in a better race than this. She has been dropped 6lb for that, but that is negated by the fact she is 5lb out of the handicap here. The drop back to 2miles and the application of first time blinkers make her just a little interesting at a big price.
10 – Colinette – This is her first start for 296 and it’s been almost three years since she showed any worthwhile form. That was over 3 miles and even if she is ready to go after a break, the chances are she will lack the necessary pace to get involved racing from 7lb out of the handicap.
11 – Young Valentino – He has been off the track since September 07 and even then had shown nothing over hurdles. His only career success was gained over 6f, and it would be a major shock were he to win this.
Summary – I wouldn’t normally get too involved in a race with handicap debutants from the Moore and Curley stables, but I have seen enough promise in EASTON CLUMP to be more than hopeful that he’ll be very competitive in a race of this nature. Mayolynn looks solid but very beatable and Mauritino can’t be trusted. Of those other handicap newcomers I’d be more worried about Mut’ab, but his overall profile is of a horse in rapid decline. PEZULA has a featherweight to carry and in such a weak race, she could go well at a big price in first time blinkers.
2pts each way Easton Clump at 5/1 or bigger (no prices at time of writing)
0.75pt each way Pezula at 16/1 or bigger1 – Easton Clump – As per my notebook notes, I think the bare 2 mile trip will prove to suit him well. Has been running in some fair novice company and not getting home over 2m4f/2m6f. He travels well in his races, and ran well enough in a jumpers bumper at Southwell. The ground will be fine, this is by far the easiest task he has faced and i’ll be really disappointed if he doesn’t at least reach the places, off a mark of 95.
Excellent analysis again, Robert. I’m looking forward to your previews of the festival handicaps
Haha Tuffers you might be waiting a while for those! Good luck tomorrow at Southwell…
Well turning in I thought he might do it, but although it would have been nice if he’d won, he ran well and I’m sure he’ll go on and win a similar race.
Trappy stuff tomorrow, I’ve plumped for the 2:40 Towcester, but stakes should be kept to a minimum
2:40 Towcester – Thursday 3rd February
1 – Yossi – Well he’s been a busy boy at Southwell recently in a campaign which started off well, dipped in the middle, and last time was better again. He has won over hurdles, but that was Huntingdon, and it might be a flat track suits him best. At least he fitness is proven unlike a few of these, but he’s a bit of a character who finds it hard to win, and I’m struggling to visualise him battling to win up the Towcester hill.
2 – Red Lancer – Formerly a classy flat performer, who is on the downgrade these days. He finished close up in what was an unusual bunch finish for the course last time. A stiff 2 miles over hurdles looks just the ticket, and he was finishing well under an unexperienced pilot that day. A further 4lb drop helps his cause and he is capable of gaining his first win since May 09 in this.
3 – Gulf Of Aqaba – I’m surprised to see this one being offered at such skinny odds at the time of writing. Whilst he wasn’t completely disgraced in a couple of novice hurdles last season, those races haven’t worked out very well at all. Mark Johnston and David Pipe have yet to get much from him, and his comeback start for Ian Williams didn’t set the world alight. Compared to the rest of these, there is obviously room for improvement, but he’ll need to show a fair bit more than he has so far on this handicap debut.
4 – Marlborough Sound – This 12 year old has only had twelve starts in his career, winning three, two of them at this venue. A further abscence isn’t a huge concern given his proven ability to go well fresh. You do have to wonder whether he can keep coming back from all his troubles, and he also has combat an 8lb higher mark than for his last win.
5 – Orang Ooutan – Former James Ewart inmate who hasn’t been seen for the best part of 2 years. He’ll have no trouble getting home here, but he’s probably best watched on his first start for his small yard.
6 – Nous Voila – Another in this line up who is a light of former days. He is still capable in this grade, and is at least tactically versatile which could be handy in this. He would be dangerous if allowed to bowl along unchallenged up front. However he is still 11lb higher than when he won at Fakenham last season and it’s a slight worry that he ran poorly on his only previous visit to the track.
7 – Andy Gin – Another 12 year old, and this one has only had 2 starts in the last 4 years. He is a course and distance winner, but he didn’t show enough on his last comeback to suggest he could win this, and after another 2 year absence there have to be huge doubts about him now.
Summary – A modest little affair with doubts of one sort or another over all of them. Only 2 firms have this priced up at the time of writing, and the 10/1 on offer about RED LANCER is clearly the value to me, the handicapper has given him a real chance now and he is the tenative selection He perhaps should have gone close to winning last time, and was flying up the hill at the end. Nous Voila could well end up making the running and if on a going day he may be hard to peg back.
1pt win Red Lancer at 10/1 (Bet 365)
+£9.50
Well I couldn’t have had Orang Outan today, but well done to his trainer on her first winner from her first runner!
I can’t believe that we have 3 national hunt meetings tomorrow, and yet I’ve decided to preview a race at Lingfield, a selling handicap, oh how I love those (no really I do). The one bet I may have over jumps tomorrow is Kingsmere at Bangor, but it’s a very difficult day I think.
1:50 Lingfield – Friday 4th January
1 – Wyeth – Sure to start favourite and it’s easy to see why. He won four times in the space of six months three seasons ago, including twice over C&D. He was off for a couple of years before reappearing at Towcester. I was there that day, and with respect to connections he was carrying a lot of condition and was pulled up. He shaped encouragingly here over 1m4f last time, and this step up to 2m is bound to suit. He’s only a couple of pounds lower than before his enforced absence, but he has more natural ability than his rivals, and he should be there or thereabouts.
2 – Sovereign Spirit – He has looked in decline over hurdles this season, and it’s been a long time since he showed anything on the flat. Even in a race as poor as this, it’s hard to see him having the necessary speed at the end of what might be a fairly steadily run affair.
3 – Acropolis – Famous for finishing fourth in the Arc in 2004. He was tried over this course and distance last year, and whether he runs over 1 mile or 2, he seems to be found lacking come the finish. He is several pounds lower than this time last year, and he’ll probably be within a few lengths of the winner, but it’s hard to see him winning again after so long. I think it’s sad to see a horse who was as talented as he was, reduced to running in sellers.
4 – Henry Holmes – Clearly not easy to keep sound, he ran a good race on his first start for 18 months over C&D recently, given the terms where unfavourable to him in that claimer. A reproduction of that would see him in the shake up returned to handicap company, the slight doubt is the dreaded "bounce factor".
5 – Olivino – He finished second here two starts back behind the hugely gambled on Brabazon. He has since disappointed, but at this level you just have to overlook the odd poor effort. One of the most likely to run his race though, as 23 win and placed efforts from 55 career starts would indicate.
6 – Primera Rossa – She hasn’t seemed at her best on this track, but the one positive is that arguably her best effort was her only try at this distance. She ran well a few starts ago over hurdles when a respectable second, and has won a race at Chepstow on the flat over 1m4f. She looks a little moody, but I’m guessing she has a bit more natural ability than the majority of her rivals. If they don’t go much of a gallop here, she does have a bit of a finishing kick when on song, and it could be seen to good effect. One of the likely outsiders, but in a very modest and rather wide open event, she may be worth chancing.
7 – Pinsplitter – This is rare for me, but I’ll sum this one’s chances up rather quickly. Even if they don’t go much of a gallop I honest can’t see this one have the necessary stamina for this 2 miles and she is very easily overlooked.
8- Baggsy – She is interesting on her first start over 2 miles on the flat, and she should improve for the step up in trip. She won in a seller at Towcester, and staying is clearly her game, as it was very hard work that day and she outstayed her rivals up the hill. If she makes the running (she has done previously on the flat) and she makes it a test, then it’s just possible she’ll stay there, but thats the only way I can see her winning.
Summary – Wyeth is the obvious choice in this, and could prove too good for them. However I’d be wary of taking short odds in a race that could be run at a crawl, on a horse who obviously has his problems. Henry Holmes would be of interest, but this might just come a little quickly after his comeback effort. Olivino is a good old stick and should run well. At the likely prices I’m happy to row in with PRIMERA ROSSA and BAGGSY. If one of them gets placed that should be getting close to recovering the stakes. The former would probably be suited by a slowly run affair, whilst the latter would probably prefer a faster gallop, so hopefully I have both bases covered.
1pt each way Primera Rossa at 12/1 or better
1pt each way Baggsy at 12/1 or betterI knew there was a reason why I don’t bet at Lingfield on the all-weather! Still they were available at huge prices on Betfair, so not much lost. I don’t understand why he didn’t kick on aboard Baggsy, got to the front and did nothing. Slightly disappointed Primera Rossa couldn’t hang on for a place, but all in all not my best analysis, and I think I’ll be sticking to the jumping more often than not in the future.
Onto Saturday then, Putting this up early as I might not get a chance for the rest of the day. I’ve made life a little easier for myself by picking a 5 runner affair, but I’m doing it for the right reason! Look out for Gansey in the race before tomorrow!
2:45 Wetherby – Saturday 5th February (Disgraceful £4,000 in added prize money for this, no wonder just the 5 go to post!)
1 – Double Expresso – His career started well in bumpers and he looked a fair enough prospect when winning his novice hurdle. He was then pitched in at the deep at Aintree and was found wanting. His chasing career didn’t get off to the best of starts when he unseated mid race on his debut. Back over hurdles last he ran a solid race over C&D behind the in-form and improving Lackamon, with Chester Lad just behind. He’s like;y to be a fairly short price in this, but he looks poorly handicapped to me as his novice form hasn’t worked out. I’ll be looking to take him on at under 9/4.
2 – Palypso De Creek – Disgraced himself the other day day at Fakenham (with my money on) when trying to refuse and unseating at the first. Unless they decide to make this a real test from the front, it’s hard to see him having the necessary pace to win back over hurdles on this kind of ground, and given his currently wellbeing, I think he’s the first to pass over.
3 – Always Bold – A return to his front running best would make him very hard to beat. However he has looked woefully out of sorts in recent times, and the handicapper isn’t dropping him that quickly. He just doesn’t looked in love with the game at the moment, and although a revival is always possible, you’d want fairly big odds to back him before seeing signs of one.
4 – Chester Lad – He wasn’t beaten to far behind Double Expresso here last time, and has since dropped a further 2lb. The stable have been struggling for winners of late, but a few more placed efforts recently suggest they might be about to hit form. The better ground here should be in his favour, and the small field and potential for a steady gallop may well suit as he does have a change of gear when on song, interesting.
5 – Ravati – Joins Liam Corcoran who is his third trainer in as his many starts! I thought he ran a promising race back from a break a few weeks ago on soft ground at Ffos Las. He pulled hard that day but was finishing his race well over 2m4f and I’ve been waiting a while for him to race over this 3m trip. He has dropped a long way in the weights, but his only career success did come at this track and on good ground. His stamina isn’t compeltely assured, and there is a chance either Palypso or more like Always Bold may try and make it a test. However given there current form neither of those two may be able to sustain a challenge for all that long, and his turn of foot could be a factor at the finish.
Summary – My main play here will be to take on Double Expresso who just looks harshly treated on a mark of 129 at present. CHESTER LAD was only just behind him that day, and with the stable showing more signs of life in recent weeks, he can reverse that form and score. RAVATI is worth a small saver as he is likely to go off a big price, but is by no means a no-hoper given how this race might pan out.
3pt win Chester Lad at 4/1 or better
1pt win Ravati at 12/1 or better+3.50
Oh how silly horses can make you look sometimes, Palypso De Creek is rapidly becoming one of my least favourite horses! The race resulted in neither a profit or loss, as I laid Double Expresso and backed Chester Lad. I didn’t back Ravati and also won’t count him on here, as he never got near the price required, and in the event ran very poorly.
Very short on time now, so just a very quick look ahead to the 4:00 at Fontwell
4:00 Fontwell – Sunday 6th January
1 – Folie A Deux – Given one of the rides of the season according to some last time at Warwick, although personally I think McCoy had ridden a rather poor race on this fellow until turning in when his strength in the saddle got him up on the line. Anyway now off a career high, and over a trip that I think will stretch his stamina to breaking point, readily opposed.
2 – Royal Wedding – An in and out performer who is more than capable of winning this at his best. He’s often run well fresh in the past so his 53 day absence is of no concern. Conditions should suit and as he usual travels well in his races, this layout may well suit him, a player at a price.
3 – Lepido – Didn’t look a natural chaser on his first attempt last time. He’s not easy to predict, doesn’t look particularly well handicapped and the trip is a concern, easily passed over.
4 – Alldunnanddusted – The stable hasn’t had a winner for a while (although a lot of theirs have been big prices of late) and this one hasn’t been at his best in recent starts. His jumping however does seem to be improving and the handicapper has given him every chance after dropping him 7lb since his last effort. He now looks well in on his hurdles form, and a return to form would make him difficult to beat, shouldn’t be ignored.
5 – Extra Bold – A winner last time on his first start for Emma Lavelle. He’s a real stayer and would probably be better off over the 3m2f around here. He is an obvious contender, but do you really want to be taking a short price on a horse who hasn’t won for this sort of mark, who has obviously had his problems and isn’t the most consistent. Coupled with the fact he might just struggle to keep up early on, I think he’s worth taking on.
6 – Sordid Secret – Arguably the most difficult to weigh up as she is still lightly raced. Her win came over 3m at Uttoxeter and she was plodding on at the finish over 2m4f last time on her reappearance. Like Extra Bold she may ideally need further, but she is still open to a little improvement and probably has a race of this nature in her off this sort of mark.
Summary – Folie a Deux is the likely pacesetter, but unless he slips the field, I can’t see him lasting home. Extra Bold and Sordid Secret are the market leaders, and whilst both hold sound claims, this is by no means a 2 horse race, Lepido I simply cannot entertain and therefore (I don’t always back 2 horses!) I’m left with Royal Wedding and Alldunnandusted. Neither can be relied up to run up to their best, but conditions look ideal for both, and if one of them does, their are capable of taking this contest. At 4/1 combined for the pair, I think it’s without question the way to go in this race.
1pt win Royal Wedding at 9/1 (Various)
1pt win Alldunnandusted at 9/1 (Various)
- Total Posts 17716
Great effort, Robert.
I had my fingers crossed that your other selection would oblige – I doubled him up with Wide Receiver this morning and was delighted to see the money come for him – but it’s hard to fault your analysis.
Keep it up.
P/L +£11.50
Thanks guys, when all the money came for Alldunnandused and Royal Wedding drifted, I thought I might be relying on the former, but not a bit of it!
Some of the bigger trainers have boycotted Lingfield tomorrow, and I can’t say I’m that upset, I really like the look of the card from a punting perspective.
Sole Agent at around 12/1 looks a great price in the 3:10 and Grey Cruzene is an interesting runner now handicapped in the last, however the race I’ve chosen is the 4:15
4:15 Lingfield – Monday 7th February
1 – Prince Louis – The likely pacesetter here, and it’s possible he could go well from the front. He is however 4lb higher than for his win at Plumpton last season, despite being mainly out of form since. The race he won was a very weak affair, and he doesn’t look well treated. It’s only the shape of the race that makes me wary of completely ruling him out, but he’s had soft leads in the past and has still run badly, and I can’t really entertain him off top weight in his current mood.
2 – Maximix – A real moody customer who is dropping down the handicap at a rate of knots. His best run in ages was here, but they didn’t go much of a gallop that day and he may have been flattered. I’m not sure he’ll be up for a slog of 2m4f and he’s easy to cross out at present.
3 – Russellstown Boy – I really wish he wasn’t in the line up! He was impressive for the grade, when winning at Uttoxeter last season (his only victory) and conditions here should suit him well. That said he is very in and out, and is rather exposed now. If he can put in a good round of jumping he is up to winning this, but it’s so hard to know what to expect from him.
4 – Mr Bond – Lightly raced for an 8 year old, but he appears to be standing his racing better this season. His best effort to date was over course & distance when just denied by Ponchatrain with the pair clear. Despite having run fairly well since then (Both at Chepstow and twice at Leicester, he was in contention when coming down on one occasion) he is now 3lb lower, and with everything here in his favour, he looks a solid selection and the one to beat.
5 – Sieglinde – The first time cheekpieces will need to have a dramatic effect on her in order for her to win this. She has never really been competitive in any of her starts to date, and whilst she has shown a glimmer of ability, you really need to see a bit more before you back her, even off a mark this low.
6 – Kilfinnan Castle – He often saves his best for Fontwell, and although only rated 75 at present, his two wins have been of 67 & 71. The trip and ground are now problem, and he is likely to pick up some place money, but it’ll be disappointing if he’s quite good enough to score.
Summary – Sieglinde and Maximix are easy to ignore at present, whilst Kilfinnan Castle usually finds one or two too good. Prince Louis isn’t a no hoper and as the only likely front runner, he could get the run of the race, but his recent form is poor. MR BOND ran his best race here, and has been in fair form since. He now looks on a very winnable mark and with the wildly inconsistent Russellstown Boy looking to be his chief danger, odds of around 11/4 look more than fair to me.
2pt win Mr Bond at 11/4 (Vc & Bet 365)
Ho hum, no excuses today, Mr Bond had every chance but wasn’t good enough. In hindsight Prince Louis was perhaps worth a bet he did get an easy lead, and despite some erratic jumping, he won a poor race emphatically.
Modest racing tomorrow, I’m interested in Hardanger at a price in the 1:45 at Southwell tomorrow, his action suggests the surface may suit, and if his jockey (one of the better ones in the line up) is positive on him, I can see him galloping on well up the straight there.
Sedgefield is a track I quite like, some tracks just seem luckier than others, I can never back a winner at Ponteract for instance! The 3:55 is a modest 2 mile handicap chase.3:55 Sedgefield – Tuesday 8th February
1 – Gavroche Gaugain – Finally put in a clear round last time over C&D and that should have done his confidence a lot of good. That was a fair effort, although 5 of the 6 runners finished in a heap. One of the more likely types if his jumping holds out, but he doesn’t appeal as one to take a shortish price about.
2 – Pinewood Legend – He’s only had a handful of starts over fences and showed a similar level ability to his hurdling form. He made at least one bad mistake on each attempt and didn’t look a natural (not overly big). That aside, I think he may lack the necessary pace to win this, and he may be seen to better effect over a bit further.
3 – Ice Image – Still a maiden, and an extremely frustrating sort. His jumping has cost him on occasion, but the ground looks the main issue with him here. His best form has been on a faster surface, and given that he’s not been at his best lately anyway, he’s farily easily passed over.
4 – Authentic Act – The winner of a very poor hurdle here last time and making his chasing debut in this off what could be a stiff mark for him of 83. He’s another whose best form is on a sounder surface, and he looks plenty short enough in the betting.
5 – Lerida – His two winning marks over fences are 74 & 75 and he has gone up again for his recent second to a mark now of 83. He’s obviously in good form at the moment, but is hardly prolific and given that I don’t think he’s really improved of late, this mark could well be beyond him.
6 – Ginger’s Lad – This one would appear to require further than this bare 2 miles, and he is another who would prefer some better ground. He hasn’t gone well after a break before, and I think those alone are reason enough to oppose him.
7 – Flighty Mist – On all known evidence, this one has no chance, unless a switch to fences produces a miracle.
8 – Troodos Jet – A few of these like this course, but none more so than this one. He’s a lovely looking animal who I thought was going to be a fair sprint handicapper at one point (won over 5f for Alan Berry many years ago). Whilst he hasn’t been at this best recently, he showed a bit more at Southwell last time. A return to this track off his last winning mark can only help, and his previous form with both Ginger’s Lad and Lerida suggests he may just come out on top against those two again, double figure prices are tempting indeed.
9 – Glengap – I’ve been waiting for the day when I could put some of my hard earned on this horse, and it’s now arrived. He does run like he has a problem, but on his one start for Tim Vaughan he was tried in a tongue tie and that seemed to have a negative impact if anything. He has been dropped 7lb for his last run and is now off a real platers mark, and the trainer has done well to find a race where he is still in the handicap proper. He can travel like a dream in his races, and my main reason for supporting him here is that I think this could be a slowly run affair and if he doesn’t last home in this, he may well never win a race.
Summary – Gavroche Gaugain, Authentic Act & Lerida will most likely dominate the market, and of the three,the first named appeals most. However there are reasons to oppose them all at skinny odds. TROODOS JET loves this place, and having shown more last time he looks worthy of investment, as does GLENGAP who has shown a few times enough ability to win a moderate such as this, and he may finally have a chance to shine.
1pt each way Troodos Jet at 10/1 (Various)
1pt each way Glengap at 14/1 (Bet 365)10:15 am – Well he never did reach 16’s, the money has come for Glengap this morning, from the Cooper stable that can only be a positive, It’ll be doubling interesting if they make the running on him, I forgot to mention in the write up that he won a point in Ireland, how he got 3 miles is a mystery, they must have been absolutely crawling!
P/L +£5.50
Ice Image, trust you to go in! I’ve had a dabble on him before but gave up with him a few runs ago, ah well, a much needed win for the Charlton yard and I hope Knockara Beau can add another to their tally tomorrow. I wasn’t happy with the ride Glengap was given, on the head on shot you could see he wasn’t being hard ridden and wasn’t beaten far in the end by the third horse. If they are ever more positive on him over 2m, he can win a similar event, if!
I thought I was going to go for the 2:40 at Carlisle tomorrow, in fact I’d started writing it out as I liked the look of Banoge who has tumbled down the weights and should appreciate the drop back to 2m on soft ground. However after closer inspection, it is a very competitive little heat, and although I may still back him if available at a double figure price, I’m going to concentrate on the 3:10 instead. I was tempted by the beginners chase at Ludlow in which none of the likely market leaders look to be natural chasers, the other 3 can’t honestly be given a chance, maybe Stripe Me Blue could be the answer as he looks set to make the running.
3:10 Carlisle – Wednesday 9th February
1 – Cadoudalas – He’s started to flourish now for Richard Lee and positive tactics over this 2 mile trip appear to suit him well. He is by far the most experienced of these over fences and although he is giving weight away all round, his experience will count for a lot around here and everything looks set for a good run.
2 – Alfie Flits – Classy at his best, but I’m firmly of the opinion that he is on the downgrade now, and he achieved little when winning at Kelso earlier this season. He didn’t look in love with the game last time at Wetherby where his jumping was poor and I don’t think he would have a hope of winning off his official mark of 127 in a handicap.
3 – Wind Shuffle – He has done very well to win 2 races over fences so far, although the form of both has been let down since. He has an official mark of 136 which looks to be very much on the high side. He’ll no doubt attempt to make all, but it’s questionable whether this track with it’s uphill finish will play to his strengths. Obvious claims, but opposable.
4 – Indian Groom – A decent handicapper over hurdles, and on that sort of form he’d be a worthy favourite here. He’s only had 5 runs in the last 2 years however, and last time on his chasing debut he looked anything but a natural. A further absence since October is a slight concern, and whilst he may well win, he’ll have to jump a lot better here.
5 – King O’The Gypsies – He has a little to find on hurdles form with a few of these, but alike Alfie Flits and to a certain extent Indian Groom, his profile is currently progressive. Making his chasing debut in a fairly hot little heat, and it’ll be a very good start if he gets off the mark.
6 – Cloonawillin Lady – Modest pointer who was no doubt flattered to get to close to Si Bien last time on her rules debut. She stayed on well that day, and will no doubt require further to be seen at her best. Obviously has some ability but probably best watched until handicapped.
Summary – Alfie Flits looks one to avoid these days, whilst Indian Groom also has a bit to prove now, not least on the jumping front. Wind Shuffle is in good form, but might be found out by the tough climb to the line. On official ratings CADOUDALAS can’t win, but you shouldn’t always take to much notice of such things, and I think the handicapper has both Alfie Flits and Wind Shuffle on inflated marks at present. The selection also has everything in his favour here, his jumping should stand him in good stead, and hopefully Tom Scudamore can sit a few lengths behind Wind Shuffle before picking him up on the run-in. King O’The Gypsies is quietly progressive and is perhaps the main threat.
2pt win Cadoudalas at 3/1 or better
Well I didn’t back him, at a best available 9/4 (barely got any bigger on the exchanges)as I thought that was around the right price, so he can’t be counted on here. Alfie Flits came out, and although I didn’t fancy him, I was surprised that he opened up at 13/8 and even more surprised that he went odds-on! My back almost turned into a lay, but I didn’t play in the race and he just about managed to scramble home from Indian Groom. Wind Shuffle predictably found it too much of a struggle on the ground up the hill, and in hindsight a place lay of him was probably the way to go in the end.
Knockara Beau is a star, I’ve loved him since he won his bumper and along with old Mister McGoldrick, he is my favourite at the moment. The thing is I don’t mind getting a bit sentimental about horses, and I rarely back them, because I’m just so happy to see them doing well I don’t need to put money on them, although I thought he was value today. Apparently it’s the Pertemps Final for him now, and whatever else happens, it’ll make my Cheltenham if he wins (Mr Moonshine might have something to say about it).
I’ve chosen the opener at Huntingdon for tomorrow and as their are 14 declared, I’ll keep the comments brief.1 – Empire Builder – He’s had his three starts in novices and goes handicapping off of 110. I can see how the handicapper has got that figure, but I don’t agree with it. He finished 10 lengths behind Kingsmere here 2 starts ago, and that one just got beat at Bangor off 108. Extremeley So who beat him last time at Leicester is terribly handicapper off 117, and as a result I believe this one is too. A mark of nearer 100 would have been fairer and although this step up in trip may suit, he’ll do well to win off this mark.
2 – Divy – A promising bumper horse, who has failed to go on over hurdles. He is running as though something is amiss at present, and although the handicapper is beginning to relent, even if he were 10lb lower I still wouldn’t fancy him, not certain to stay.
3 – Sprosser – 11 years old, but he’s only seen the racecourse fifteen times in his career. He hasn’t been seen for 475 days, but has gone well fresh in the past and the stable are in good form at present. He is fairly treated here on his chase form, and if all is well, he’s a danger to all.
4 – Mtpockets – She has been a little disappointing since her Fontwell victory (form recently boosted) and her Wetherby run last time was a complete wash out. She is probably better judged on her Taunton fourth, and it may be she is handicapped to her best at the moment. The stable have gone into a bit of a lull at present, and that would also raise concerns, opposable on balance.
5 – Premier Des Marais – He was struggling a long way out on his return after a lay off at this track 2 weeks ago, and he will need to have come on an absolute bundle to take a hand in this. Doesn’t look attractively handicapped and questions to answer at the trip, easy to cross off, although looking like he may be a single figure shot, place lay perhaps.
6 – Bishophill Jack – Undoubtedly one of the more interesting runners in the line up. His run last time is probably better than anything achieved by any of this field in recent times, and a mark of 105 looks fair enough (could easily have been slightly higher) He shapes as if this trip will bring out the best in him and he should take high rank in this field.
7 – Herald Angel – Now here we could possibly have some value. On the face of it he still has a very stiff ask, given that he is 16lb than when he trotted up at Fontwell. He only got one chance to show what he could do off a much higher mark over hurdles after that though, and perhaps he deserves another. He hasn’t taken to fences, and this return to hurdles looks a good move. We know that he stays all day, and that he acts on this good ground, and with question marks over a lot of these, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him in the frame.
8 – Nabouko – Looks poorly treated back from another break,and it’ll be a brilliant training performance from Mrs Nock of Senor El Betrutti fame, if he obliges.
9 – Fairhaven – A bit of a dark horse, now being trained by Charlie Longsdon. His irish form suggests he is anything but consistent, but this better ground would appear to be up his street. The handicapper over here hasn’t taken too many chances with him though, and he’ll need a career best to break his maiden tag.
10 – Toni Alcala – 58 win and placed efforts in 144 career starts on the flat and over hurdles and fences, what a superstar he’s been. It’ll be a surprise if he can comeback aged twelve off a break to win this first time up, lets hope he comes back safe and sound and maybe he’ll be able to pick up something slightly easier later in the season.
11 – Petroupetrov – I don’t subscribe to Timeform, I don’t like my mind clouded too much, but if I did, I’d expect to see a squiggle next to this ones name. He really isn’t one to place much faith in. If in the mood, he could get competitive off his current mark, but he’s impossible to predict and is arguably better off over fences.
12 – Knight Woodsman – He can be very keen in his races and has twice run over course and distance, both times fading out of it late on. He should pick up a race in due course, but that’ll be over a shorter trip, maybe around 2m6f and I think it’s time they tried riding him from the front.
13 – Doctor Kilbride – Intially I thought this one would be included in my selections and I still may live to regret ignoring him. I’ve been slightly put off my the fact that the trainer has stated "he should come on for the run, has put on a bit of weight during the cold spell". The other thing is he looks like being a much shorter price than anticipated (currently being backed albeit for small money at 10’s on the exchanges). If I owned this horse, I’d be telling Tom Messenger to sit just behind the pace (probably Raki Rose), and then kick on going out for the final time, he stays all day, will enjoy the ground and looks well weighted. I’ve changed my mind again, 10’s could be fair enough if available in the morning!!
14 – Raki Rose – A long way out of the weights, may get his moment in the limelight via leading until just after halfway, but he needs to be running in selling handicaps to have any chance.
Summary – The lack of front runners could mean one of these can take this race by the scruff of the neck. Of the market leaders I don’t fancy Empire Builder or Premier Des Marais for the reasons stated above, Sprosser is feared for his in-form yard but BISHOPHILL JACK is unexposed and potentially well treated, and any staking plan on this race should include him. DOCTOR KILBRIDE looks set to run a big race if he is fit enough to do himself justice, a few of these will struggle to see it out, and that definitley doesn’t apply to him. Finally HERALD ANGEL doesn’t have good recent form figures, but this return to the small obstacles should see him in a different light, and although still high in the weights, but his jockey takes off 7lb and everything is in his favour, he may be overpriced.
2pt win Bishophill Jack at 9/2 or better
1pt each way Doctor Kilbride at 10/1 or better
0.5pt each way Herald Angel at 25/1 or better
It’s fair to say I didn’t see that coming, The first three I wanted to be against!! Doctor Kilbride was never put into the race and clearly today was never going to be his day (didn’t reach 10’s so won’t count on here) Herald Angel just never going, and Bishophill Jack was disappointing. The winner clearly relished the trip, on ground that the rain appears to have got into slightly, good?? We’ll hope for better luck tomorrow.
I like the look of Master Beau in the 3:35, but my attention was grabbed by the 3:00.
3:00 Musselburgh – Friday 11th February
1 – Stormy Weather – Arguably the only horse in this line up still open to improvement. He was the only defection from the Totesport Trophy at the 48 hour stage and this is obviously a far easier assignment. When you say, he finished fifth in the Fred Winter at the festival, that sounds rather good, and of course it is, but that race isn’t really working out too well. He steps up to 2m4f albeit on a flat track. At Cheltenham he ran like this new trip would suit, on other occasion 2 miles has looked the limit of his stamina, so it’s a tough one to call. I’m wary of him, but he’s been absent since November and I’m willing to take him on.
2 – Quito Du Tresor – Better known as a chaser, he’s been set a couple of tough assignments at Cheltenham of late, and should find this much more to his likely. He is well in on his chase form, although that is perhaps a little misleading, as he is a very good jumper of fences, and probably deserves a higher rater in that discipline. He handles soft ground, whilst perhaps prefering a slightly better surface, although soft at Musselburgh is probably the equivalent of good to soft at most venues. He is probably as effective at this trip as he is 2m, and what I really like about him in the context of this race is his versatility. He can make the running or he can come with a late run. None of the others are likely pacesetter, so there is a fair chance he will get his own way up front and that could prove fatal for the rest of them.
3 – Bucephalus – I like this horse and with conditions in his favour he has a likeable attitude. However conditions aren’t really in his favour today, as he isn’t effective with cut in the ground, and is probably better at 2 miles. He could be interesting off a lightweight at the Aintree National meeting, if he ends up in a race there, but I can’t have him here.
4 – Devotion To Duty – Stablemate of Quito Du Tresor and sill a maiden over hurdles, although he has some respectable form to his name. He does like a bit one paced at the business end of his races, and connections tried him over 3 miles last time, although in the end it was impossible to tell if he stayed as he was in trouble at halfway. It’ll be interesting to see what tactics are employed in relation to his stablemate as I can only give him a squeak if they don’t go a crawl. Overall he looks to have a bit to find with the top two at the weights, and is unlikely to break his duck in this.
5 – Amir Pasha – I can’t believe he has only just turned 6! It feels like he’s been around for a lot longer than that, although that is probably because he’s already had 44 starts. He’s a solid and consistent horse at a modest level, and is probably still a little high in the handicap. He put in a good effort here the other day behind the evergreen Santa’s Son, and if he runs to a similar level he’ll probably finish within 10 lengths or so of the winner, but that effort surely needs to be improved upon somewhat for him to claim the winners prize.
6 – Rolecarr – I had him down as one to follow for the 09/10 season, but he didn’t make the track and came back in the summer of last year. He returned after a few months in November to record a facile success in heavy ground at Hexham, although it’s debatable what that form is worth (I think Hexham form in general should be treated with caution, as like Towcester, distances are somewhat exagerrated on occasion). A good second last time behind recent winner The Magic Bishop shows he is capable off this sort of mark (although I prefer to look at what a horse has beaten rather than what has beaten it). He’s lightly raced for an 8 year old and I think he is still potentially well handicapped. Whether this race will play to his strengths is questionable, as he can pull hard in his races. But he’s certainly one to watch another day, perhaps over 2 miles in a bigger field.
Summary – An interesting little race, with the most interesting runner being Stormy Weather. There is no doubt he has the class to win this, but with question marks over his ability to settle in a slowly run affair, the trip and his current wellbeing, he can be opposed. QUITO DU TRESOR is a class act at his best, and it’s his versatility here that could prove to be the race winner. A soft lead is a real possibility and he could prove too hard to peg back, as he is capable of quickening off the front around this sharp layout. If Stormy Weather fails to last home, the likeable Amir Pasha is the most likely to chase him home.
2pt win Quito Du Tresor at 4/1 (Paddy Power)
+0.50
Well almost back where I started, Quito set the race up for his stablemate, I should perhaps have seen that coming!
Right bit of a cheat for tomorrow, Having been through the cards, i fancy a few at prices, so just for a change will quickly go through those, instead of highlighting just the one race.
IRISH SYMPHONY goes in the 1:40 at Warwick and is capable of going well at a price. Her recent form figures don’t look good, but a strong run 2 miles here on softish ground should be right up here street, and she is still open to a little improvement.
I’ll be taking on Finians Rainbow tomorrow, Kilmurry and Stagecoach Pearl are no slouches and his jumping will be tested for the first time, 1/2, no thanks.
THEDEBOFTHEYEAR hasn’t been seen to best effect for a while, but she just has a little touch of class in a field like this, and whilst it’s a worry that she hasn’t run terribly well before off a break, she’s worth chancing at a massive price, conditions will be ideal for her.
Having already backed Cannington Brook at 33’s for the NH Chase, I’m hoping he goes well tomorrow, although I’m also a Silver Kate fan, hopefully one of them will overturn Alfie Sherrin.
I’m not a big fan of Cappagh, that sounds a bit harsh given his spate of win and placed efforts, but when push comes to shove he looks a bit wayward. I’m taking him on with GO AMWELL who was running on when falling 3 out behind Mr Moonshine at Huntingdon. Timmy Murphy gets on well with him, and he should run well off a light weight in a race with a few doubtful stayers, of which he is not one.
The Aon looks a match at first glance, and isn’t the sort of race I’d usually get involved in, but Riverside Theatre is short enough, and whilst he is the most likely winner, there is still a niggling doubt about him seeing out the trip to great effect. What A Friend is a talented enigma and I think he probably has more natural ability than the rest. I just have a suspicion that OGEE could cause a surprise. He’s a tough, consistent, and likeable horse who didn’t run quite as badly at Cheltenham as the P next to his name suggests. Official ratings tell you he has no chance, but he to me is a clear third choice and you know he jumps and stays, the bet at the price for me.
I hope Ayr gets the go-ahead. EASTER VIC would appear to have no chance in the first, but I just know she has more ability than a rating in the low 80’s suggests, although she is undoubtedly very quirky. She ran her best race here, and goes on the ground. Their are 3 in this that should dominate in theory, but I can see her getting herself a long way behind before making up ground late on (as long as he inexperienced jockey has the energy!) and when it’s heavy at Ayr funny things happen. I’ll be mainly backing her for a place, as she can’t really win, but I just have a sneaky suspicion she’ll outrun her odds by quite some way, although why she is running here instead of in a handicap is anyones guess.
GLENGAP, oh what a tease you are. I really don’t know what’s going on with him. Earlier in the week I backed him up in a chase at Sedgefield, he was backed in the morning, before drifting on course and finishing last of the finishers. But he was never really put to the sword, and wasn’t beaten far. First time blinkers and a new jockey tomorrow are interesting, and I hope, I really really hope they make more use of him. He enjoys the soft conditions, should be as fit as a flea, and I’m convinced if it all falls into place he can win off a stone higher mark than the one he’s currently on, I just have to back him at double figure odds in what is a desperate contest.
1:40 Warwick – 1pt each way Irish Symphony at 20/1 or bigger
1:50 Ayr – 0.5pt each way Easter Vic at 40/1 or bigger
1:55 Newbury – 1pt each way Go Amwell at 25/1 (Paddy Power)
2:25 Newbury – 1pt each way Ogee at 40/1 (Stan James)
3:10 Warwick – 1pt each way Thedeboftheyear at 28/1 or bigger
5:05 Ayr – 2pts each way Glengap at 10/1 or biggerOne will do! two would be nice, six and I’ll be the new Graham Wylie, I just won’t let Howard Johnson buy them for me!
- Total Posts 17716
I’m glad to see someone else fall down on the side of Go Amwell, Robert.
The best of luck for tomorrow.
Well a day to forget yesterday and a few minor losses hardly seem to matter. Although I have to say I think a lot of people have overreacted. I was "surprised" that they went ahead with the first race, and I do think it was perhaps a slight error of judgement, but no more than that.
One thing that did make me chuckle yesterday was the going’s on of Robert Goldie stable. Easter Vic was one of my bets yesterday and she did indeed outrun her 66/1 quote and finished 4th (each way of course) as I needed a sub par performance from one of the front 3 and didn’t get it. However this small stable then went and had their first winner since 1996!!! in the very next race when Alexander Oats a half brother to Easter Vic went and won the Novice Chase at 20/1!!! I seem to be developing a habit recently of backing the wrong horse on the day when a stablemate goes in. Thedeboftheyear ran well, and should be better for the run, whilst the other 2 to run yesterday were disappointing, and perhaps it’s time I gave up on Glengap (you know what’ll happen now)
A week to forget as far as this thread is concerned, a few more near misses. But because in general I don’t back too many at short prices, I know I will have far more losing days than winning ones, but in the long run I usually manage to eek out a profit.Enough rambling, a quick preview of the first at Hereford.
2:00 Hereford – Sunday 13th February
1 – Stafford Charlie – A complete enigma, whose half brother runs later on for Arthur Whiting (Both out of that good staying mare Miss Roberto). He still looks too high in the weights, and can’t be fancied at the moment with both he and the stable woefully out of form.
2 – Brunette’sonly – On their Exeter running she has the beating of Royal Chatelier, and therefore it is slightly hard to fathom why she is twice his price (granted that one has come out and run well since). She did race keenly that day but still saw her race out well. Inexperienced jockey up, but she must have sound claims with improvement still likely.
3 – Royal Chatelier – I backed him last time at Uttoxeter when I thought Mr O’Regan perhaps should have done slightly better. They did finish in a heap that day, and the form should be taken with a pinch of salt. As mentioned, he has a bit to find with Brunette’sonly, capable of winning, but no value.
5 – No Woman No Cry – This is the one I really can’t have of the market leaders. A much better effort from him last time, in a similarly poor heat at Taunton. He just looks so one paced though, that I feel he really needs the 3m2f trip around here or a stiff 3mile at Towcester etc. Likely to be running on at the death, but I reckon a place is the best he can hope for.
6 – King Kasyapa – Doubts over his wellbeing after a near 2 year absence, as well as concerns regarding his ability to last home. He seemed to handle the soft ground well enough at Cartmel, but it may not be ideal. Too many imponderables at the moment to consider backing him.
7 – Speedy Directa – Showed nothing here most recently after a lay-off and is best watched.
8 – Shoudhavenownbettr – He hasn’t shown much under rules so far, but his Irish Point form suggests he has ability. His first effort for this yard at Stratford in October wasn’t a disaster by any means in the context of this race, and last time simply wasn’t far enough. The most interesting of the outsiders for me and it’s possible he could go well at a price on his first handicap start in first time blinkers, with one of the better jockeys on board.
9 – Laughing Game – Small stable got a win out of Orang Outan recently after a long absence, and this one has sound claims with conditions to suit. Only 5lb higher than when scoring at Market Rasen last season and with David Bass on he looks capable of going close.
10 – Lescer’s Lad – Gallant old timer who showed no sparkle on his return last time.
11 – Photogenique – She hasn’t shown much for a while now and all her best efforts appear to come at Uttoxeter. Whilst in contrast she has run terribly on all three starts here and it’s easy to look elsewhere.
12 – Kielder Rose – She looked fairly promising initially, but it’s been downhill since those first few starts, and there are no positives to be gleaned from any of here recent efforts.
14 – Supreme Team – Still a maiden and arguably the 3m2f trip here would have suited him better. However he went well on his first start for connections at Worcester, and given that he is best fresh, he has to have every chance in this off the same mark having shown a liking for this course in the past. A fast pace would suit him, and in these conditional races they often do go a good gallop, although there is nothing in here that is guaranteed to make it.
Summary – With Chestnut Ben a non-runner not many of these can be fancied to win this. No Woman No Cry look’s to slow, whilst Royal Chatelier is probably flattered by that latest effort, and Brunette’sonly looks better value. LAUGHING GAME will be suited by the trip and the ground, and his stable have shown they can get one ready after a break, he looks a solid selection. SUPREME TEAM is capable of winning a race like this off his lowly mark, but isn’t one for the mortgage. SHOUDHAVENOWNBETTR is an interesting contender, although he hardly looks thrown in off 85. But having watched the Stratford effort again, and taking into account his Irish Point form, he may well be capable of playing a part.
3pt win Laughing Game at 4/1 (General)
1.5pt each way Supreme Team at 7/1 (SJ & Tote)
0.5pt each way Shouldhavenownbettr at 28/1 (Skybet)Chuck in Brunette’sonly as well for 12 forecasts at 0.1pt each, total 1.2(not a bet I usually do, but realistically I can only see Royal Chatelier gatecrashing)
And he did gatecrash! Actually he drifted to over 6/1 on the exchanges which was a much fairer price than the 4/1 he was before. An example of getting a race more or less right (Laughing Game 4th, slightly disappointing,Shouldhavenownbettr finished 5th and ran better than any of the other long shots) but losing on the race. I can live with that (just)
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