[douginho]

The final outcome is the correct outcome as far as I am concerned. Dream Ahead has his quirks but an awful lot of ability. Of the front three, Bated breath looks like the most professional horse, easier to ride and ran straight and true to the line. And for that alone, to suggest he should be penalised to 3rd position is ridiculous!

Just about every race has a horse veering left or right under pressure, its the nature of the game, and while you have sympathy for Hoof It being it a group 1 race, you cant possible see he’d definitely have won with a clear passage. Dream Ahed and Bated Breath could easily have responded to his challenge and pulled out even more, it happens all the time.

My initial thoughts – and still my thoughts – are that we have 3 potentially very good sprinters appearing on the scene – and they finished in that order yesterday. Dream Ahead is now a 4 time Group One winner, 2 from 3 in sprints this year. Bated Breath didn’t make the racecourse until he was 3 and has arguably has as much room for improvement as Dream Ahead and Hoof It. And Hoof It has always looked like he’d get better with age and clearly is. Great race, and could be repeated time and again for the next few years!

[douginho]

Saturday 23rd April

10p e/w Lucky 31

Gentle Ranger 3.10 Sand 12-1
Has had arelatively light campaign and shown a liking for decent ground at this time of year. Struggled to see out the 4m 1f of the Midlands National and slight drop in drop should help. He has shown he can jump well in winning at Cheltenham last year and if he can get into a rhythm down the back he might just be able to get away from some of these. There are dangers a plenty, mainly Meanus Dandy whose record running right handed is far superior to when he goes left handed. This is so much more competitive than the hunter chases Baby Run has been running in and cant see him winning, even placing today.

Quattrocento 4.00 Hay 12-1
A bit of an indifferent performer but I feel he wants summer good ground (not winter good ground) or firmer. His stable has come into some form this spring (as indeed has his jockey). This is quite a tight handicap and feel he is overpriced at 12-1.

Black Phantom 4.35 Hay 8-1
Travels well in his races and due to Ed Cooksons claim races off a lower mark then when narrowly denied by subsequent winner My Shamwari at Ffos Las 2 runs back. Subsequently ran another solid race at Chepstow and in a pretty open affair is fairly weighted. There are a lot of recent winners running here but it may be they are approaching the peak of their marks and Black Phantom is the solid option.

Huygens 4.50 Sand 8-1
Trainer has been on form from very few runners and Huygens is one of the potential improvers running in the race today. He was often keen in his races last year and if he has matured and learned to settle he could go well today. I have missed the price somewhat (16-1 last night) but still think he has solida credentials today. Julienas is another horse I like here although he may be better of a furlong or two further. Return to a sound surface going right handed should see him improve though.

Political Paddy 7.45 Kelso 12-1
Has a decent course and distance record and ran well last time out at Ayr. He comes here off a reasonable mark and againt some opponents who might be handicapped to their best. Whispering Death will be popular but I cant see how a step up in trip will aid his cause. He travels so well and everytime he has gone over 2m 4f he has been well beaten. Better ground may help but he is worth opposing.

Elsewhere, I agree with Robert Gibbs thread re Worth A Kings, Becausewecan can go well fresh and Nisaal could be nicely handicapped.

[douginho]

Excellent contribution Ginger. Covers most of the angles I use, particularly liked your section around pace of the race and horses settling. In flat racing the general trend is for horses to start at shorter trips and then progress upwards…ie 2yo maiden 7f, then maybe 1m then 1m 2f and then onwards, possibly as far as 2m. I like to look for horses who will benefit for a drop in trip. Most recent example I have was last summer with a horse called Kimberley Downs at Musselburgh. When with Mark Johnston had won over 2m at Ascot but had been struggling badly to get home over trips shorter. Fact is he had won over 9f and that was the trip of the race in question. All racing press i saw that day said trip was too short (racecard in particular) but I felt differently. Horse made all and won easy.

This is not an everyday find though!

[douginho]

Although that Bath race did give me a little understanding of what people mean by ‘dross’ Younger horses running as fast they can & there’s The Tatling basically going out for an evening jog.

Excellent

The horse seemed to me to be loving the job so surely it’d be wrong to deny the horse the Trip to the races. Be nice if he gathered a win or two through the summer. To that end, I’d like to see the old boy run on a straight 5f/6f rather than round the bends on the polytrack or at bath or brighton where he seems to have been appearing of late. Maybe Milton is lining it up for one last coup lol

[douginho]

Been a member of the forum for a few years (with many breaks along the way) and I find it enjoyable. Good mix of people, excellent tipsters, excellent analysis and some good craic.

I am endeavouring to come on the site more in the foreseeable, and contribute more than I currently do. The site can get blocked by my work servers which is a blow as it only leaves the evening to post but I’ll try and make the time.

And would love to see more people use the chat section, possibly pre-arranged meetings can be held in there on the day before big races/meetings or the day after big race days??

Doug

[douginho]

Hi Darren,

Thanks for asking mate.

I changed jobs, got married, generally had a lot of things going on in life so didn’t have the time to get online. Trying to contribute again when I can, although work still eats at my time. I have still been punting and the multiples stood me in good stead through the winter. I may need to cut down on my race analysis as couple times in past week I had a lucky 15 on but didn’t have time to do a write up – lunch break just doesn’t give me the time really.

I’ll try and dig a few winners out for the weekend (should get a chance on Good Friday to look ahead)!

[douginho]

Just read this entire thread, start to finish. So much to learn in one thread and yet so much garbage thrown in for good measure too.

I am not gonna re-hash quotes or anything but I did chuckle at the general lack of horse racing knowledge that some posters seemed to possess (seeing as this is a racing forum).

Of course its possible to make a profit betting on horses. The fact that their are so many variables within racing is what makes it possible. Personally I have made a return on investment for the past six months approaching 75% – almost exclusively betting each way multiples. I know others on here have had great success backing win singles only (in fact they are probably having a canary reading that I bet in multiples).

The fact is you need to bet in a way that suits your own style and around your own betting bank.

I find I can select many placed horses yet often fewer winners. Today I selected 8 horses – all at greater than 7-2. 4 were placed, 2 won. So I try and bet accordingly (each way Lucky 15’s my A bet, e/w trebles from 4 another.

And my betting bank being limited is a key factor in betting this way. I cant afford to be betting £25 singles – 7 or 8 losers in a sequence and I may well be out of money. Multiples can give rise to large winnings, real bank boosters and so thats how I go about it.

Above all else though, in order to win at racing, you need to understand racing. Key points I look at include:-

Forgive a horse a bad run
Trainer form is a positive
A horses latent ability matters more than a few pounds here or there
Play the long game – note horses now (either mentally or in a notebook) that show real promise and are well touted by sensible trainers. You can find these horses pop up an nice big prices a year or two down the line.

There is of course so many factors to consider. I try and watch plenty of racing (no excuse – all races have free replays online now) and generally increase my knowledge of racing and horses. This helps me sense which factors are more/less important in certain races.

And if you dont enjoy doing it – your in the wrong game!

[douginho]

poor ride but horse was not helping lugging in behind. looked like horse was hating the ground to me

[douginho]

Result Friday 8th April

Albertas Run placed @ 10-3

Staked £12.60
Return £0.20

Balance (£4.30)

Very poor day on friday – in fact very poor aintree for me in general!

[douginho]

Friday 8th April

A top days racing at Aintree today and I have come in with a 10p e/w Lucky 63 today.

Bet was placed last night but only had chance to get onto the site now.

Desert Cry 2.00 Aintree (9-1 BOG)
The race he finished 2nd in at Kelso is working out well (4th and 5th won since, 3rd unlucky in defeat at Aintree yesterday). He travelled well and just found the 2m 2f a bit far in the better ground. Today’s race is not as good a contest as usual I feel and the main danger could be A Media Luz providing she settles early.

Albertas Run 3.05 Aintree (4-1 BOG)
I think we’ve all learned by now that this is a spring horse who’s record at the major spring time festivals is exceptional. Many of these have questions to answer over trip/ground and willingness to win and at ¼ odds a place Albertas Run looks rock solid for a big run again. Tartak could be the one to outrun his odds having a liking for flat tracks.

Isn’t That Lucky 3.40 Aintree (20-1 BOG)
Ran very well to be 3rd in this race last year and having dropped 3lb since has got a clear chance on that run alone. Again he is a horse who seems to run well at the spring time festivals and should give us a good run for our money. The favourite has to be a lay in my book as he beat a very poor handicap field, albeit convincingly, at Sandown. His jumping was good that day but was under no pressure whatsoever. Frankie Figg and co will make sure this is a proper race and he’ll be severely tested. Fine Parchment is another that can be relied upon to give a good account while at bigger odds Fistral Beach (Nick Scholfield gets on well with him) and Calusa Caldera can go well.

Back In Focus 4.15 Aintree (13-2 BOG)
A lot of runners here, many of which are unexposed. Back In Focus has good form in beating Court in Motion and with many of these having had a hard race at Cheltenham is the fresh option. Saint Are at a bigger price should appreciate the step up in trip and the likely faster pace.

Pistolet Noir 4.50 Aintree
I made a mistake and backed this without taking the price (Ladbrokes did not offer odds on this race last night – or the following bumper). He ran well at Cheltenham having been outpaced to finish 9th behind Carlito Brigante. The step up in trip and with Ruby Walsh back on board (combination 3rd at this festival last spring) bodes well. Sir Harry Ormesher is another that appeals while of the market principals Kilcrea Kim is unbeaten away from Cheltenham and may prefer this flat track.

Tante Sissi 5.25 Aintree
Is progressing well and will appreciate the return to a sharper track than when 2nd at Sandown in the valuable mares bumper on Imperial Cup day. Zhakeira Spirit is the danger as she travelled very well at Sandown before fading in the straight and if she can settle better today would have a chance of going closer.

[douginho]

Given Brennan’s ride on Our Columbus at Chepstow today (for NTD as well), the recent revelation doesn’t seemed to have affected his performances.

Despite the news of the "split", the subsequent events suggest nothing has really changed other than Brennan is no longer "officially" NTD stable jockey. Looks like he’ll still be riding for the yard and with Sam and young Willie also around in the coming months, cant see anyone really coming out of the scenario badly. Brennan will be free for more outside rides, dont think there is another retainer lined up.

As for the Scu/Pond House scenario…someone mentioned young Scu heading north to Lucinda Russell – doubt Peter Buchanan and Campbell Gillies will be quaking in their boots. Both upwardly mobile riders in my book, riding for an upwardly mobile northern stable to boot!

[douginho]

Result Saturday 2nd April

Arthurian Legend WON @ 16-1
Marleno 2nd @ 7-1
Sud Pacifique WON @ 10-3 (R4 deduction)

Staked = £12.60
Return = £21.50

Balance = £8.10

[douginho]

Saturday 2nd April

A good days racing in prospect, lots of runners compared to in recent weeks, ideal for an each way punter like myself.

Todays bet is a .1 e/w Lucky 63 on the following selections:-

Mata Keranjang 2.05 Donc (13-2)
Potentially well treated given that he was running well in group races as a two year old. He has ability and it may be possible first time up is the ideal time to catch him. No proof of that, just the way some of these horses can be. Its obviously an open race but with Hills paying e/w 1-2-3-4-5 (and in the Lincoln) he has solid place credentials at least. Other fancies here were Highland Knight (why have Jeff Smith and Andrew Balding kept this but sold Breakheart?) and Pleasant Day, who on his 2yo form, is chucked in (2nd in Horris Hill at 2yo).

Arthurian Legend 2.15 Chepstow (14-1)
Won very well over course and distance in the spring and looked a horse with good potential. Things haven’t really panned out and he is returning here after a significant absence. The Hobbs yard is in better form now than it was when he last ran and hopefully a return to his early season form here will see him belie his odds. There doesn’t appear to be any superstars in the line up and he rates as an overpriced fancy today.

Lowther 3.10 Doncaster (14-1)
Has made rapid progress this winter and won the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton very cosily – cant really see why anything behind should reverse the form as the slight drop in drop will probably suit. Despite being a 6yo he hasn’t had many starts by flat handicapper standards and is very much improving. Obviously there are plenty dangers in the race, although the favourite has to be worth taken on given the drop in trip may not be ideal and his price is skinny. I also fancy Sweet Lightning and Eton Rifles to potentially outrun their odds.

Marleno 4.05 Uttoxeter (15-2)
A lot of runners in here, some of whom have been in very good form. Marleno is one of those and has been very consistent often travelling well but not quite producing what looked likely. A return to a sharper track than Sandown is a positive and he will hopefully travel on the bridle into the straight. Better spring like ground may help him get home from there.

Sud Pacifique 4.15 Doncaster (15-2)
In some ways a chancy selection as all the maidens in the race could, as they say, be anything. However, when I looked at the line up for this race yesterday, I expected Sud Pacifique to be half the price he is. He was a twice beaten favourite last year at Newcastle and Goodwood, odds on to boot. He ran into a decent Mark Johnston horse at Goodwood, where he travelled well but just seem ed to be too weak to see out the 1m 1f. A Derby entry indicated he had some potential and with a winter to strengthen up he should be up to winning a race of this nature sooner rather than later. The trainer and jockey are also in decent form so far this year.

Amble Forge 5.30 Chepstow (8-1)
Has run well many times at Chepstow and has dropped to a winnable mark. The drop in trip is in his favour as he can run very free. He ran hell over 2m 3f here two runs back when he looked likely to win at the 4th last, however he just seemed to run out of steam further up the long straight. Its quite a tight little handicap but others may be on marks that are the peak of their abilities whereas Amble Forge, after his lean spell, is not.

Other fancies today include Lunar Victory in the Roseberry (concerned ove rthe draw), Rosbay in the last at Doncaster (won at meeting last year and goes well here) and Into Wain in Queens Prize at Kempton who looks like he’ll appreciate the step up in trip.

Above is all best odds guaranteed with Lowther and Mata Keranjang covered e/w 1-2-3-4-5 places.

[douginho]

Result Friday 1st April

Rustarix 2nd @ 8-1

Staked = 3.0
Return = 0.3

Balance = (0.

Got today wrong, should have included Altan Khan and Hits Only Jude!

[douginho]

Friday 1st April

Jago River 2.30 Newcastle
Get the impression he is well regarded and think he may have a little more ability to show than has been the case so far. He has ran a couple of solid races on his last 2 outings, finding 3m perhaps stretching his stamina last time. There isn’t too much depth to this race outside the front few in the betting and given his approximate odds of 7-1 against the market leaders feel he is slightly overpriced and a solid each way selection.

Artic Night 4.00 Newcastle
Ran a good race to be 2nd last time and has an obvious chance on that form. The drop in trip is not a negative here given that he ran well over shorter in a decent novice hurdle behind Darna and Desert Cry earlier in the year. There are a few potential improvers in this field but feel with his connections and current wellbeing he rates a solid selection at around 8-1.

Rustarix 4.40 Stratford
Won well at Cheltenham back in the autumn and has run solidly if not spectacularly since then. He has had a wee break since the last of those outings and a return to a sound surface is a key positive. Its quite an open contest with a mix of horse returning from absences and others running well of late (4 horses return from 60+ day break, 2 last time out winners ran in last 20 days). The Hollinwell and Minella Theatre have potential to win but are unreliable. For me Rustarix is the solid contender who should run his race.

Shadrack 6.00 Newcastle
Had a winning run between January and March last year where he improved greatly and ran as if further improvement wasn’t beyond him on his recent return from a break. This is a drop in class compared to that return and a repeat, never mind improvement, should see him being competitive here.

.1 e/w Lucky 15 on above = 3.00.

Others I had considered were Hits Only Jude 5.20 Musselburgh and Altan Khan 3.40 Stratford. Just felt both were priced correctly if not underpriced.

[douginho]

Result Wed 30th March

Royal Swain 2nd @ 4-1
Royal Riviera WON @ 14-1
Madamlly WON @ 6-1

Staked = 3.0
Return = 17.3

Balance = 1.9

Kiama Bay beat Royal Swain tidily, pair clear and both look capable of winning further this spring/summer.

[douginho]

I didn’t envisage putting up combinations during many midweek cards but I have found a few today. Time constraints mean I will be brief.

Royal Swain 3.20 Catterick (nap)
A horse I followed a bit last year after he ran a close 6th in the Aintree bumper. He showed improved form through the year, and a liking for the course when winning a handicap in the autumn. He was stepped up in trip for a 1m 7f handicap at Ayr on soft ground late in the year and despite travelling well at the 3 pole he faded to finish a close up 5th, more outstayed than outclassed. He subsequently went to Wolverhampton a week later and completed bombed out but I am willing to forgive that run coming so soon after Ayr and at a long hard week.

Royal Riviera 3.40 Hereford
Was talented on the flat for J Gask having won a bumper very easily for Alan Swinbank on his racecourse debut. He hasn’t really been firing since the move to N Twiston-Davies but there is reason to believe the potential still exists. He ran ok when 6th last time out at Taunton and a return to a decent surface may well suit. The trainer can hit form in the spring and I think Royal Riviera is worth opposing the Henderson Sizing horse who hasn’t exactly looked a world beater.

Madamlily 4.50 Catterick
Main reasons for thinking Madamlily can go well are three fold – has dropped to an attractive handicap mark, has decent course form (beat moonlight blaze last autumn and has weights pull with that rival) and J J Quinn has kept the faith with the horse.

Barkston Ash 4.20 Catterick
Has the potential to be a typical Eric Alston improving sprinter. Ran with encouragement on a couple of occasions last season at Haydock, Chester and York. At Chester he was well outpaced from the worst of the draw but kept on well to finish in midfield. Unsurprisingly (in an effort to sharpen him up I assume), blinkers were applied at York in a decent Saturday handicap next time. He travelled much better, almost too well and was very keen tracking the pace, even over York’s sharp 5f. He faded in the last 3ooyds but still showed enough ability to suggest there is a race in him this year (a low key maiden being a good starting point).

10p e/w Lucky 15 of the above, Stake £3.00.

Others I considered were Artic Pride against E Street Boy at Hereford and Twisted in the 7.30 Wolver.

[Author]

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