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This is really for Steve Caution. Have you seen this bloody horse that we both followed for a while in France is now an unbeaten Group 1 winner in the States? Seeming to relish the fast ground. Knew that horse had something!!!!
I couldnt agree more. I was out in France on Arc day when he was well beaten by Ballydoyle in the Prix Marcel Boussac race. He picked up an injury which seemingly made him fade into the distance but im pretty sure that day he was odds on in the French betting.
I saw he was running the other day but didnt think id bother but of course he wins nicely against the rail.
He’ll definitely win group ones out there no bother. A great horse, if he can stay fit.
One thing that frustrates me, that I dont know the answer to, is there a horse finder equivalent for when horses run stateside?
I know people are hit and miss with US racing but i quite enjoy it and i thibk that comes from my trips to Meydan, where you see them race. The one thing I cam never find is a horse tracker for the US to keep tabs on them. Usually its just a general stroll through Sky Bet and getting lucky.
SHE
Bloodhorse and Equdibase are the places to go
US racing is handy enough for getting a winner , tip wise. Odds aren’t as bad either as it is slightly more competitive
SHE indeed! My apologies Twice Over!
Thanks everyone for your help with the US horse tracker tips.
As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.
Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words
I’m completely against you here Clints. I think Mori screams out as the type to win the ribblesdale, normally I think the fillies who are a lay in this are the ones who have run in the Oaks, and are too tired to replicate their form at ascot, and throw in the michael stoute angle and the fact that Khalid Abdulla seems to have such a strong hand with three year old fillies and she’s a back not a lay.
I also think Carvaggio is one of the best horses on the flat I’ve seen since Frankel and by the end of the season we’ll be ranking him with sprinters like Dayjur.
We’ll agree to disagree Judge. Im just not convinced that Mori has beaten much to justify her being favourite/joint-favourite at around 5/1.
Her first race she was 5th to Gracious Diana by 7 and a half lengths. Gracious Diana then went back to Newbury over the same distance and came 4th to Natavia by 17 and a half lengths. I appreciate it was a huge jump from a maiden to a listed race.
Natavia on her follow up run in the Oaks, came last of the 9 runners, beaten by about 27 lengths. Fair enough she probably didnt enjoy the ground and is much better but that wasnt great considering the market support she received.
Im not necessarily saying Mori wont or cant win, im just saying I think the price is all wrong. After she beat Coconut Creme at Goodwood she was stable after the race at 10s (which I think is fair) but has now halved in price.
The last 3 runnings have gone to Ireland and SMS has not won it since 2003.
****
Again, as for Caravaggio, im not denying hes an absolute machine but this is his biggest challenge yet in my opinion and at the odds, I feel he is short enough.Ive got him at 11/8 and in a double with OOSG but that was prior to what Harry Angel did at Haydock.
Lets hope its a steering job and he goes down as one of the best sprinters of all time,I just feel at time of writing he is very, very short.
Heres mine for what its worth:
NAP – Lady Aurelia. I was tempted to go with Churchill or Ribchester but not sure thats offering much, so have settled for LA. I must admit closer to race time, I am rather petrified of Marsha but I think after what she did last year in the Queen Mary last year, and Wesley’s Royal Ascot form, she should be there or there abouts. Im ew at 6/1 so hoping she at least gets top 3.
LAY – Mori. After she won her last race she was still trading around 10/1 for the Ribblesdale but now half that price. Shes bred well but this is a massive jump in class, where I dont feel the form justifys joint favouritism.
EW – im not sure on his odds now but id be keen to take a punt on De Bruyne horse in the Coventry (was about 9s when i last looked). A very pacy horse who flew along Epsom. He needs to come on again for the run but id say hes worth a chance.
Good luck everyone.
Im even going to reply to my own post….how sad!
If I was laying a short priced favourite (as opposed to Mori who is about 5s) I think it would have to be Caravaggio.
I know some will shoot me down but whilst I think he is a machine and should win, there are some serious, serious challengers.
I was at Ascot in May when Blue Point beat Harry Angel when receiving 4lbs. He broke the track record.
Even more devastating was Harry’s next race at Haydock where he won by about 5 lengths and also broke the track record.
This race certainly isnt a forgone conclusion and I wouldnt be sure in what order those three will finish.
Heres mine for what its worth:
NAP – Lady Aurelia. I was tempted to go with Churchill or Ribchester but not sure thats offering much, so have settled for LA. I must admit closer to race time, I am rather petrified of Marsha but I think after what she did last year in the Queen Mary last year, and Wesley’s Royal Ascot form, she should be there or there abouts. Im ew at 6/1 so hoping she at least gets top 3.
LAY – Mori. After she won her last race she was still trading around 10/1 for the Ribblesdale but now half that price. Shes bred well but this is a massive jump in class, where I dont feel the form justifys joint favouritism.
EW – im not sure on his odds now but id be keen to take a punt on De Bruyne horse in the Coventry (was about 9s when i last looked). A very pacy horse who flew along Epsom. He needs to come on again for the run but id say hes worth a chance.
Good luck everyone.
Evening.
Ive been really busy at work so havent had a chance to catch up on here for ages.
As Judge said earlier in this forum, I was quite keen on COS. Reason being, it didnt and doesnt look a particularly strong race but not only that, his form suggested that he would prefer 10f over 12f. He’d only ever lost once over 10f.
My biggest frustration would have to be that it was only a week ago where Fabre said he would be targetted at this race, only for him to say a week later it wasnt going to happen. I know a lot can change in a week but this one doesnt quite feel right to me.
We all know from recent announcements that HH Sheikh Mohammed calls the Godolphin shots and whilst I think Fabre would have been happy to run, he wants to keep his ‘big guns’ separate and therefore I expect Jack Hobbs to turn up. Wouldnt surprise me at all.
Unfortunately the withdrawal means we have to lick our wounds and carry on. Part and parcel of ante post betting I suppose.
Hein – out of curiosity, if you had to place a bet today, regardless of who was and wasnt confirmed, who would you be backing?
A very fine offer Clints, I already have my tickets for tonight or I would gladly have taken you up on the offer.
Youre more than welcome. Gutted im missing it but didnt fancy standing on my own in the rain although I did contemplate it. Hope you back some winners. I reckon Dancing Breeze can go well for Frankie in the 7pm race, dropping back in class. Good luck.
Thank you clints. Although I am definitely a flat man, any rare wins I have are normally over the sticks, but it was a rare good night for me particularly from Surrey Hope to win and Glorious Forever to place, so it was an profitable evening for me for once. I am not a very successful gambler so I might knock it on the head for the year after getting two in the one race.
I completely agree about Dancing Breeze who is definitely one for another day.
Its always nice to have a winner or two on the day. Good luck to you. Spend it wisely.
This is really for Steve Caution. Have you seen this bloody horse that we both followed for a while in France is now an unbeaten Group 1 winner in the States? Seeming to relish the fast ground. Knew that horse had something!!!!
I couldnt agree more. I was out in France on Arc day when he was well beaten by Ballydoyle in the Prix Marcel Boussac race. He picked up an injury which seemingly made him fade into the distance but im pretty sure that day he was odds on in the French betting.
I saw he was running the other day but didnt think id bother but of course he wins nicely against the rail.
He’ll definitely win group ones out there no bother. A great horse, if he can stay fit.
One thing that frustrates me, that I dont know the answer to, is there a horse finder equivalent for when horses run stateside?
I know people are hit and miss with US racing but i quite enjoy it and i thibk that comes from my trips to Meydan, where you see them race. The one thing I cam never find is a horse tracker for the US to keep tabs on them. Usually its just a general stroll through Sky Bet and getting lucky.
A very fine offer Clints, I already have my tickets for tonight or I would gladly have taken you up on the offer.
Youre more than welcome. Gutted im missing it but didnt fancy standing on my own in the rain although I did contemplate it. Hope you back some winners. I reckon Dancing Breeze can go well for Frankie in the 7pm race, dropping back in class. Good luck.
If you backed Dancing Breeze you didnt get too much value for your money. She was a bit slow away which meant she got pushed towards the back of the pack. Into the straight Frankie made his challenge but was too far back and when she did get going, the horse was bunched in towards the rail which made her lose momentum. She did however finish quite strongly and I wouldnt rule her out next time, depending on track and distance of course.
A very fine offer Clints, I already have my tickets for tonight or I would gladly have taken you up on the offer.
Youre more than welcome. Gutted im missing it but didnt fancy standing on my own in the rain although I did contemplate it. Hope you back some winners. I reckon Dancing Breeze can go well for Frankie in the 7pm race, dropping back in class. Good luck.
Here was the original article regarding Saeed Bin Suroor’s breakdown in communication with John Ferguson for those who did no see it…..
I am still confident and I hope Cracksman will win!
Last but not least to kick his hater’s asses
..Come on Cracksman!
Wheres the ‘like’ button
Im hopeful more than anything. I do have a gut feel that Permian will be closer than people think
On paper it was set to be a great race but unfortunately it wasnt as close as id hoped it would be.
I was put off by HR’s initial price but then when it drifted out to 5/2 i was tempted. Id seen him live in Dubai both times and neither race he ran well. I therefore decided to leave it.
When Hawkbill went to challenge I thought he was toast but he pulled away nicely. Difficult to knock a horse whos won in 3 different countries!
Frontiersman ran on really well and Hawkbill looked like 10f was all he wanted.
As for those on Journey, well you didnt really get value for your money and I did hear that she has never won on her reappearance in the last 3 years.
Clearly not what you want to hear now but probably worth sticking by for the time being.Congratulations those who got HR at 5/2 and bigger. Bash those bookies!
I’ve just read Harry Angel was sold to Godolphin which appears quite odd to me.
Has anyone background infos or assessments on this?
I would be very thankful!I read that too on Racing Post. Personally I thought it was on the cards but apparently Godolphin havent disclosed the fee…must have been pretty large….I wonder how they now rank Blue Point and Harry Angel
Eminent travelled so well in his Epsom workout
he reminds me greatly of authorized- I can see him travelling like a ferrari and hacking all over most of them in the straight
maybe cliffs of slower, worst solution and crapsman will have more power under their bonnet- or maybe not
You are just stirring the pot now Judge
Im excited for this years derby because literally anthing can win….compared to previous years where there were a few headline horses before the off. Roll on Saturday, should be a cracker
I think one of the problems when you go on these forums is you tend to overthink it a lot and end up backing a lot of runners, or “savers”
because people who go on forums tend to over analyse more than the usual punter.
as this derby is more wide open than most it’s tempting to back half the field. however so far I’ve resisted added to my inital bet on eminent and not got plunged into the usual saver bets. (i do have a double on enable/cracksman as well)
It seems to me there’s no obvious reason why O’Brien and Godolphin aren’t just running their usual also rans. The fact they are running so many suggests as others have said that they don’t have anything special.
Of course if Martyn Meade had five derby horses he’d probably also run five, however it does seem like there is no star in the coolmore or godolphin ranks.
was very tempted to back venice beach today and when I went for a run I spotted a van with “capri” written on the side of it which I almost took to be an omen, clearly I’m losing it
Its funny you say that Judge as when I was in Spain last week, I walked past this sign that said Acapulco and I thought the exact thing!!! Im not always the superstitious type but thought it was fate.
Lol yes you know you’re losing it when that ends up being the deciding factor!
I hadnt even had a drink at this point either! In fairness, Sky Bet did a boost when it was confirmed that Acapulco was moving from Wesley to Aiden, for Royal Ascot 10/1. I got involved then but after the strange sign in Spain I thought I could be onto a winner lol. Spooky
I think one of the problems when you go on these forums is you tend to overthink it a lot and end up backing a lot of runners, or “savers”
because people who go on forums tend to over analyse more than the usual punter.
as this derby is more wide open than most it’s tempting to back half the field. however so far I’ve resisted added to my inital bet on eminent and not got plunged into the usual saver bets. (i do have a double on enable/cracksman as well)
It seems to me there’s no obvious reason why O’Brien and Godolphin aren’t just running their usual also rans. The fact they are running so many suggests as others have said that they don’t have anything special.
Of course if Martyn Meade had five derby horses he’d probably also run five, however it does seem like there is no star in the coolmore or godolphin ranks.
was very tempted to back venice beach today and when I went for a run I spotted a van with “capri” written on the side of it which I almost took to be an omen, clearly I’m losing it
Its funny you say that Judge as when I was in Spain last week, I walked past this sign that said Acapulco and I thought the exact thing!!! Im not always the superstitious type but thought it was fate.
