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I like the Hugo Palmer trained Crimean Tatar 33/1 for this. This regally bred colt is extremely unexposed as a result of two knee injuries he sustained last year just before the Great Voltigeur, when having a crack at the St. Leger was on the agenda, and as a 2 year old just before he was due to run in the Racing Post Trophy. He won his only two starts as a 3 year old before finishing a very encouraging fourth on his reappearance last month at the Greenham meeting. As expected he looked in need of the run, but he stayed on very encouragingly, and I can see why Palmer felt the Leger was well within his limits. He reckons he would’ve been a Melbourne Cup contender but for his weak knees. Palmer also said he doesn’t know if he wants step him to 2 miles early doors, and having been encouraging over this trip I see no reason why he shouldn’t have a crack at it. Hopefully his knees don’t give in ‘just before’ another big one.
Running a horse with a history of knee problems at Epsom seems like an idiotic idea to me, if they felt he was a Leger horse but don’t want to step him up to 2m yet than I would have thought Friday’s Yorkshire Cup over 1m6F on a nice flat galloping track would have been perfect for him.
Palmer did list the Yorkshire Cup as one of his potential starting points, but opted instead for the John Porter. His pedigree would fetch a pretty penny at stud so they obviously think he can go places this season or he would be in the sheds already. I don’t think he would be racing again if they believed his knees were at further risk, whatever treatment he has underwent they must be very confident it has done its job.
His most impressive performance to date was at Newmarket, so I hope the undulating track at Epsom wont be too much of a concern.If the horse doesn’t run for welfare reasons then connections have lost my money but gained my respect. I’m happy to take the risk at 33/1.
Hopefully they are right but two knee injuries already would indicate it is an issue that at best can be managed rather than cured and whilst the ground at Epsom will be safe, coming down that hill on quickish ground in my mind makes the risk/reward ratio not being worth it.
There are plenty of other opportunities around like the Hardwick, King George and a whole host of G1s in Europe (which in some cases take a lot less winning) where most of the time you will encounter easier ground conditions that will be kinder on a horse with suspect knees.
With all that being said, I will have my fingers firmley crossed that your investment at 33s pays dividends.
An almighty tsunami for Highland Reel in the last 24 hours has seen his price collapse from 5/1 into general 7/4 fav (6/4 in places).
Seventh Heaven has been removed from the betting despite O’Brien informing us that this would be her next stop.
I have been looking at Highland Reel for this and nearly backed him when he was cut from 5/1 to 9/2. The thing putting me off is that Jack Hobbs has remained in the field, despite John Gosden saying after his win in Dubai that the horse would go straight to the Hardwicke and then on to the King George/QEII in July.
If Jack Hobbs runs here, it makes me wonder if he will go to the Hardwicke so soon afterwards. I felt the colt was on a path to the Arc and expected after the two Ascot races that he might get a break and take in a trial in France on the way to the Arc itself.
I may just leave this race. It’s never been lucky for me. I’ve lost count of the horses I have backed for this who flopped, before winning something huge later. A couple of Arc winners for starters.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sporting Life website stating Aiden has confirmed that Seventh Heaven has met with a set back and will be off the track until the Autumn and that likely to have Highland Reel and Idaho to represent him in the race
Sporting Life website stating Aiden has confirmed that Seventh Heaven has met with a set back and will be off the track until the Autumn and that likely to have Highland Reel and Idaho to represent him in the race
Yes, I’ve just read that myself.
O’Brien said: “Seventh Heaven had a little bit of a setback so she probably won’t be back out until the autumn. We are thinking that the brothers might go there (Highland Reel and Idaho).”
With Jack Hobbs an unlikely runner, it doesn’t look like Highland Reel will have much to beat.
Sporting Life website stating Aiden has confirmed that Seventh Heaven has met with a set back and will be off the track until the Autumn and that likely to have Highland Reel and Idaho to represent him in the race
Yes, I’ve just read that myself.
O’Brien said: “Seventh Heaven had a little bit of a setback so she probably won’t be back out until the autumn. We are thinking that the brothers might go there (Highland Reel and Idaho).”
With Jack Hobbs an unlikely runner, it doesn’t look like Highland Reel will have much to beat.
May depend on the ground as HR not as effective on easier ground and Epsom is currently just on the soft side of good
I ended up having a bet on John Gosden’s Journey at 9/1.
This mare set a personal best in landing the Fillies and Mares at Ascot last year, when she made up for being second the previous season, when I had backed her and thought she had it until the last 50 yards when Simple Verse got up.
I am still wondering if Jack Hobbs will run. Gosden seemed adamant earlier that he would go straight to Ascot for the Hardwicke and then try the King George/QE II.
Highland Reel is far too skinny now and at 9/1 I thought Journey was worth a try.
Journey is in to 7/1 now, the Caution quid has scared those bookies
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Surprised nobody has mentioned Dschingis Secret yet. Looks like a flying machine, every chance of beating this bunch I’d say.
Surprised nobody has mentioned Dschingis Secret yet. Looks like a flying machine, every chance of beating this bunch I’d say.
That looked a poor field he beat last time. Sirius is pretty inconsistent, only 3/18 in his career. The third is nothing special either. He has hosed up the last twice but he’s not beaten anything that would make Group 1 horses wet themselves in fear.
He’s not for me anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well, Jack Hobbs isn’t running and neither is Dschingis Secret.
Highland Reel is hot favourite but I am happy with 9/1 on Journey, who is generally 9/2 and 4/1 now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This could’ve been an absolute cracker of a race so it’s a shame to see many at the top of the market come out of the race. However, a group 1 on the card is a nice addition from last year.
With my old favourite Hawkbill (who I backed last week when he won and in the Eclipse too) not running, the only three I’m interested in is Highland Reel who I feel will cope with Epsom. Journey who I had last year in the mares race and, for me, was one of the performers of 2016. Lastly, US army ranger ran a good race at the track last season in the Derby and could be of interest.
Not sure at the minute tbh
I asked on the Oaks thread so might as well ask here… does anyone know if you can pay on the gate Friday? I went last year but was more prepared. Decided today I fancy going along Friday. I love Epsom.
Ten left in at this stage.
13/8 Highland Reel
4/1 Journey
5/1 IdahoThese are the three heading the market. Obviously delighted to have 9/1 Journey, but, as ever, that’s the easy part. Maybe one day one of these will actually win
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
How much do you actually put on these bets steve? given your strike rate particularly with ante-post punts coming down in price, presumably it must be significantly more than the quid you put on, and if you do bet so small it seems like a waste really.
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