- This topic has 62 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
SkyBet offering 11/4 non runner no bet on Jack Hobbs. Surely worth a wager? He’d be 11/8 on the day if lining up.
I’ve backed Jack Hobbs at 3/1. Listening to Gosden it is more or less a done deal that the horse runs here rather than the Hardwicke.
I feel the Hardwicke was the better fit for him but connections have probably taken the view that this is a very winnable race, with Ulysses sitting as the favourite initially.
Highland Reel is still in the betting but I think he WILL go to the Harwicke, it seems his best distance.
The vibes were there with the market move for Jack Hobbs. In this game you can pipedream that your horse may still turn up in the original race, or you can dig in and grab the last value.
As Charles said, the money will come for Jack Hobbs and I’m in there before it happens.
Jack Hobbs 3/1 is the value for me. This is the race they want to win with him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Highland Reel will run here. They supplemented Deauville for the Queen Anne when he is entered here and would have a better chance here. That leaves them without a realistic shot in this G1 if HR doesn’t run. Like everybody else, they will be tempted in that it is a winnable G1. The only time he was beaten over 10f on good or better ground was in the Juddmonte International last year when he was a close second to Postponed. I’d prefer Highland Reel to Jack Hobbs over 10f on good to firm ground, and they’ll be thinking the same.
Actually, I was stating the case for why I think Coolmore will run him, not necessarily for him winning. I don’t think Jack Hobbs will win, but there are others with a winning chance.
I think Highland Reel will run here. They supplemented Deauville for the Queen Anne when he is entered here and would have a better chance here. That leaves them without a realistic shot in this G1 if HR doesn’t run. Like everybody else, they will be tempted in that it is a winnable G1. The only time he was beaten over 10f on good or better ground was in the Juddmonte International last year when he was a close second to Postponed. I’d prefer Highland Reel to Jack Hobbs over 10f on good to firm ground, and they’ll be thinking the same.
I made the same argument earlier on the thread when I saw Deauville supplemented for the Queen Anne. But with Jack Hobbs looking a tough nut to crack in the Prince of Wales and the Hardwicke looking there for the taking I can see ‘the lads’ choosing the easy option.
I think Highland Reel will run here. They supplemented Deauville for the Queen Anne when he is entered here and would have a better chance here. That leaves them without a realistic shot in this G1 if HR doesn’t run. Like everybody else, they will be tempted in that it is a winnable G1. The only time he was beaten over 10f on good or better ground was in the Juddmonte International last year when he was a close second to Postponed. I’d prefer Highland Reel to Jack Hobbs over 10f on good to firm ground, and they’ll be thinking the same.
I made the same argument earlier on the thread when I saw Deauville supplemented for the Queen Anne. But with Jack Hobbs looking a tough nut to crack in the Prince of Wales and the Hardwicke looking there for the taking I can see ‘the lads’ choosing the easy option.
This is now easily the best race of the week. Highland Reel vs Jack Hobbs is on after all this guessing.
I took the 11/4 NRNB on Mr Hobbs in case of a diversion to the Hardwicke but I’m confident he has Highland Reel’s measure so will go in again at 3s.
This is now easily the best race of the week. Highland Reel vs Jack Hobbs is on after all this guessing.
I took the 11/4 NRNB on Mr Hobbs in case of a diversion to the Hardwicke but I’m confident he has Highland Reel’s measure so will go in again at 3s.
I think Caravaggio V Harry Angel is the best clash of the week personally.
Plus Marsh V Lady aurelia and Churchill v Barney Roy are good’uns.
4 good head to heads this week but the Commonwealth Cup is the one i think could be best of all. 2 high class sprinters.
This is a cracking race and it’s one where Ballydoyle have rolled the dice.
Highland Reel was slaughtered behind Jack Hobbs in Meydan but that was little more than a training exercise. I was on Jack Hobbs that day because I felt Postponed had lost his way and Highland Reel had run poorly in the same race the previous year.
That seemed a personal best for Jack Hobbs and John Gosden said they had fitted blinkers because the horse tends to lose focus and look about and up into the sky. Whatever the theory, it was a commanding performance.
Highland Reel put in a powerful show in the Coronation Cup but I am wondering how strong that race actually was. Journey never travelled, they could not give Idaho away in one of the biggest drifts I can recall in the betting. Some people fancy Frontiersman in the Hardwicke but I think Dartmouth will tear him a new one. Frontiersman came in rated 109 for a handicap win and then got raised to 117 for running second to Highland Reel. We see all the time that Handicap and Group form does not work out accurately and, in a very fast run race it looked to me that Hawkbill was a spent force and Frontiersman picked up the pieces in coming second.
Call me sceptical but I think much of the mystique with Frontiersman is the Dubawi-Ouija Board breeding.
Whatever, I prefer Jack Hobbs and it’s good news for Dartmouth in the Hardwicke that those two will not be there. I think 3/1 Dartmouth is a great bet still.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
4 good head to heads this week but the Commonwealth Cup is the one i think could be best of all. 2 high class sprinters.
3!
Poor ol Blue Point shouldn’t be totally dismissed because of Godolphin’s impulsive purchasing habits. Having said that, Caravaggio beats em all. 
Having backed Highland Reel for the Hardwicke I’m obviously disappointed he runs here, he just isn’t as effective over 10f. If they didn’t want to run him in the Hardwicke they should have skipped Ascot altogether in my opinion, and saved him for the King George. But alas here he is, and he’s favourite no less. The ground will certainly favour him rather than Jack Hobbs, but I don’t think Jack Hobbs is as much a mudlark as he’s made out to be. He has excellent form over c+d last season when 3rd to Almanzor on Good ground, he won the Irish Derby on Good ground, and he was second in the Derby on Good to Firm.
The faster the ground the better for Highland Reel, but I think that is sort of counter-acted by the drop back in trip. So while I’m disappointed he’s not running in the Hardwicke, I’m happy he’s allowing me to get a better price on Jack Hobbs.
Jack Hobbs has the task of recuperating my losses on Highland Reel and Cloth of Stars, at 3/1.
I still think this is the best race of the meeting as Hobbs and Reel have been strutting their stuff winning Group 1’s around the world for the past 3 years whereas the other clashes are all between horses relatively new on the seen. Plus you’ve got the likes of Ulysses, Decorated Knight and Mekhtaal in there for added depth.
I think Jack is a better horse on a quick surface and, with the likely quick pace, I can see his stamina coming into play up the straight and getting the better of Highland Reel in the final 100 yards.
I layed Minding for this and backed Cloth Of Stars the same day.
Surprised Jack Hobbs is running.
Really interesting little race. I disagree that it’s a poor renewal since Jack Hobbs and Highland Reel are elite international G1 horses already, Ulysses and Decorated Knight are on the cusp and Queen’s Trust is one of the best fillies around. It’s not a great renewal but I think this year’s winner will be the best of the last three or four runnings.
Highland Reel has already proved himself to be the current ‘iron horse’ with his global heroics, airmiles and consistency (on a good surface at least). Still, he’ll need to take the tough guy stuff to another level here. The Coronation Cup must have left some sort of a mark – not only did he have a brtual race (pulling too hard, sweaty, edgy, making all, fighting off all comers etc) but he had a terrible journey to the track as well. He really will deserve to be talked about alongside Giant’s Causeway in the toughness stakes if he can win this.
It’s boring but Jack Hobbs feels rock solid to me. He handles all surfaces and has the right sire (Halling) to keep improving with age. His slightly unlucky Champion Stakes third would put him right in the mix alone and there’s every reason to think he’ll run well above that here. Semi-blinkers made a tangible difference to him in Dubai, he’s had a clean prep this season and he has that Halling 5yo+ factor in his favour. Personally I think the targets switch-up is a positive too. Gosden/Godolphin obviously feel 1m 2f is no problem and the G1 Prince Of Wales is a more confident choice than the G2 Hardwicke anyway. I’ll take some 3/1, yes please!
As Steve said (we seem to be agreeing an awful lot lately!) Ulysses seems totally bottled-up at 5/2 – 7/2. He hasn’t done anything at the level Jack Hobbs and Highland Reel have been operating at for years. He might well improve as so many Stoute 4yo+ horses do, but that price is taking it for granted. For every Pilsudski, he has had at least two Telescopes!
Decorated Knight is a lovely horse representing another stable who do so well with their older horses. Again he needs to find a little more but Black Type’s 10/1 feels like a good price for a little saver. At least he’s a straightforward horse (not always true with Highland Reel/Jack Hobbs/Ulysses) likely to run his race and could capitalise if the others fluff their lines.
I’ve seen quite a few Queen’s Trust each-way shouts (Maddy P included) but can’t quite see it myself. She’s had a few chances at this level and 12-16/1 only seems fair.
Jack Hobbs for me, Decorated Knight the saver.
I think Jack Hobbs is the bet here. Already feels like it’ll be a decent week for Godolphin
Ulysses beat Deauville with more in hand than the length margin suggests, and that from further back than ideal. Unlike some this looks his trip. I also saw him win his maiden and Ulysses impressed me (and Jonibake) as a Group 1 horse of the future. Both in stature and motion. Has just the sort of fluent action that should be at its very best on firm ground. I can see the point that on form Ulysses has it to find to win this, but a horse’s chance has also to do with having the right trip, ground conditions and potential to improve.
Highland Reel‘s top class, but his level of ability is well established. Wins average quality Group 1s, does not win the best of the best. So although has excellent attitude and a grand campaigner, there is a weakness against the very top. Multiple Group 1 winner, however fact he hasn’t won a 10f Group 1 must be a negative… Although length and a quarter behind Postponed, 2nd in International a length in front of the possibly non-staying Mutakayyef (who was only 1 1/4 behind Ribchester in today’s Queen Anne… was right up with Highland Reel’s best form. Had this been at 12f would’ve said he could get the advantage of a soft lead without another confirmed front runner. However, at this trip setting a slow pace is likely to see him outpaced late on. So Moore will probably need to set equal fractions to maximise his chance (negating the pace advantage). Even so, ground conditions here may place more emphasis on speed than at York.
Jack Hobbs has similar form but is more lightly raced than Highland Reel – so is more likely to show improved form. However, he’s also less reliable – with physical issues. Effective on good-firm but is a possibility this even firmer surface may not be what’s ideal nowadays. Like HR, JH is in search of a lucrative Group 1 10f race for his stud career. Only stayed on for a place in two Champion Stakes performnces on less testing surfaces. Total of 3 3/4 lengths behind Almanzour (1 1/4 behind Found) two top notchers. Form that still might be good enough. Very best has come at 12f, 10 on firm likely to test his speed too under fast ground.
Decorated Knight comes from a yard in great form and won his first Group 1, Tattersalls Gold Cup last time. In truth needs to build again on a 1 1/4 beating of Somehow. Improving, but there’s perhaps more of a doubt about his effectiveness on this surface.
Queens Trust disappointed on reappearance, not given a hard time close home and needed it at a time when her trainer wasn’t in form; is now! Queens Trust won the Breeders Cup F+M Turf pipping the USA trained favourite Lady Eli in similar conditions to here. Also only 1 1/4 lengths behind the fairly easy winner Minding in the Nassau. Has form that is not as far behind the top three as the betting indicates. imo Worth taking a chance on at around 14/1.
Mekhataal isn’t out of it, but a neck defeat of Robin Of Navan doesn’t look outstanding Group 1 form. Before that got nabbed by the good Cloth Of Stars in Prix Harcourt. Probably flattered, as winner got in to trouble. Going in to the unknown for ground conditions. Is likely to chase Highland Reel up front early.
Scottish is the other possible prominent racer. On form it’s possible to argue might just squeak a place if some underperform. Consistent at a lower level than this. However there’s nothing to suggest he’s capable of upping his game to win this.
Johannes Vermear probably does have improvement in him, but needs an awful lot of it. Over 4 lengths behind Decorated Knight last time.
My 100% Book:
Ulysses 100/30, Highland Reel 100/30, Jack Hobbs 100/30, Queens Trust 17/2, Decorated Knight 10/1, Mekhtaal 13/1, Scottish 50/1, Johannes Vermeer 80/1.Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.