Nap, Lay and Each Way

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot 2017 Nap, Lay and Each Way

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  • #1304348
    Clints
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    • Total Posts 109

    Heres mine for what its worth:

    NAP – Lady Aurelia. I was tempted to go with Churchill or Ribchester but not sure thats offering much, so have settled for LA. I must admit closer to race time, I am rather petrified of Marsha but I think after what she did last year in the Queen Mary last year, and Wesley’s Royal Ascot form, she should be there or there abouts. Im ew at 6/1 so hoping she at least gets top 3.

    LAY – Mori. After she won her last race she was still trading around 10/1 for the Ribblesdale but now half that price. Shes bred well but this is a massive jump in class, where I dont feel the form justifys joint favouritism.

    EW – im not sure on his odds now but id be keen to take a punt on De Bruyne horse in the Coventry (was about 9s when i last looked). A very pacy horse who flew along Epsom. He needs to come on again for the run but id say hes worth a chance.

    Good luck everyone.

    #1304349
    Clints
    Participant
    • Total Posts 109

    Heres mine for what its worth:

    NAP – Lady Aurelia. I was tempted to go with Churchill or Ribchester but not sure thats offering much, so have settled for LA. I must admit closer to race time, I am rather petrified of Marsha but I think after what she did last year in the Queen Mary last year, and Wesley’s Royal Ascot form, she should be there or there abouts. Im ew at 6/1 so hoping she at least gets top 3.

    LAY – Mori. After she won her last race she was still trading around 10/1 for the Ribblesdale but now half that price. Shes bred well but this is a massive jump in class, where I dont feel the form justifys joint favouritism.

    EW – im not sure on his odds now but id be keen to take a punt on De Bruyne horse in the Coventry (was about 9s when i last looked). A very pacy horse who flew along Epsom. He needs to come on again for the run but id say hes worth a chance.

    Good luck everyone.

    Im even going to reply to my own post….how sad!

    If I was laying a short priced favourite (as opposed to Mori who is about 5s) I think it would have to be Caravaggio.

    I know some will shoot me down but whilst I think he is a machine and should win, there are some serious, serious challengers.

    I was at Ascot in May when Blue Point beat Harry Angel when receiving 4lbs. He broke the track record.

    Even more devastating was Harry’s next race at Haydock where he won by about 5 lengths and also broke the track record.

    This race certainly isnt a forgone conclusion and I wouldnt be sure in what order those three will finish.

    #1304358
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 16089

    Nap – Bossy Guest
    33’s for Royal Hunt Cup. Obviously ultra competitive, but I think he’s massively overpriced, and if he actually jumps out the stalls, then having plenty going for him here, I’m strangely confident he’ll go close.

    Lay – Winter
    Maybe a bit short?

    Each Way – Big Time
    40’s in The Wokingham. Touch and go to sneak in, but I reckon primed for a big run. He should hopefully hold his price, and with 6 places on the day, I’ll happily wade in again to top up my Ante-Post bet.

    #1304364
    TheGunTheGun
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    • Total Posts 186

    I’ll go for these:-

    Nap Alpha Centauri (Not sure Fairyland will like 6F as much and she had warts in her mouth recently and travelled over later than some of her stablemates)

    Each Way Fas 20/1 Commonwealth Cup (Tore his field apart last time and runner up won French Guineas)

    Lays Ulysses (Lacks the class in my eyes), Mirage Dancer(Potentially over rated, Crystal Ocean (Bit to prove still), Dream Castle (Ran a funny race in the Guineas and faces a horse narrowly beaten by Brametot in French 2000 last time, Mori (Coming up in class now), Clemmie (Still a maiden and short enough in the circumstances) Khairaat (Up 13 lbs now and race won hasn’t been working out well 5/1 looks skinny)

    I think all of those Lays looks poor value on what they have actually achieved.

    I have money on Alpha Centauri but may well have to lay it all off after discovering she won’t run if there’s any ‘firm’ in the going. :negative:

    #1304365
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    I’m completely against you here Clints. I think Mori screams out as the type to win the ribblesdale, normally I think the fillies who are a lay in this are the ones who have run in the Oaks, and are too tired to replicate their form at ascot, and throw in the michael stoute angle and the fact that Khalid Abdulla seems to have such a strong hand with three year old fillies and she’s a back not a lay.

    I also think Carvaggio is one of the best horses on the flat I’ve seen since Frankel and by the end of the season we’ll be ranking him with sprinters like Dayjur.

    #1304374
    Clints
    Participant
    • Total Posts 109

    I’m completely against you here Clints. I think Mori screams out as the type to win the ribblesdale, normally I think the fillies who are a lay in this are the ones who have run in the Oaks, and are too tired to replicate their form at ascot, and throw in the michael stoute angle and the fact that Khalid Abdulla seems to have such a strong hand with three year old fillies and she’s a back not a lay.

    I also think Carvaggio is one of the best horses on the flat I’ve seen since Frankel and by the end of the season we’ll be ranking him with sprinters like Dayjur.

    We’ll agree to disagree Judge. Im just not convinced that Mori has beaten much to justify her being favourite/joint-favourite at around 5/1.

    Her first race she was 5th to Gracious Diana by 7 and a half lengths. Gracious Diana then went back to Newbury over the same distance and came 4th to Natavia by 17 and a half lengths. I appreciate it was a huge jump from a maiden to a listed race.

    Natavia on her follow up run in the Oaks, came last of the 9 runners, beaten by about 27 lengths. Fair enough she probably didnt enjoy the ground and is much better but that wasnt great considering the market support she received.

    Im not necessarily saying Mori wont or cant win, im just saying I think the price is all wrong. After she beat Coconut Creme at Goodwood she was stable after the race at 10s (which I think is fair) but has now halved in price.

    The last 3 runnings have gone to Ireland and SMS has not won it since 2003.
    ****
    Again, as for Caravaggio, im not denying hes an absolute machine but this is his biggest challenge yet in my opinion and at the odds, I feel he is short enough.

    Ive got him at 11/8 and in a double with OOSG but that was prior to what Harry Angel did at Haydock.

    Lets hope its a steering job and he goes down as one of the best sprinters of all time,I just feel at time of writing he is very, very short.

    #1304384
    CharlesOlneyCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2050

    As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.

    #1304386
    Clints
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    • Total Posts 109

    As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.

    Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words

    #1304402
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 2556

    I’m completely against you here Clints. I think Mori screams out as the type to win the ribblesdale, normally I think the fillies who are a lay in this are the ones who have run in the Oaks, and are too tired to replicate their form at ascot, and throw in the michael stoute angle and the fact that Khalid Abdulla seems to have such a strong hand with three year old fillies and she’s a back not a lay.

    I also think Carvaggio is one of the best horses on the flat I’ve seen since Frankel and by the end of the season we’ll be ranking him with sprinters like Dayjur.

    Think you are bang on there with Caravaggio.

    I was raving about him last year and was my NAP in the Coventry. He looked one hell of a machine based on his time at Dundalk. He improved massively from there and if he wins like I hope against a brilliant horse in Harry Angel, he may well be even better than Muhaarar.

    #1304416
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.

    Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words

    5-1 is hardly 6-4 though is it…

    #1304422
    Clints
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    • Total Posts 109

    As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.

    Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words

    5-1 is hardly 6-4 though is it…

    Judge – we are just going round in circles here. Yes its not 6/4 but as ive said, i dont feel 5s is a fair price for the punters. Im not on anything so if youve backed Mori I certainly hope she wins for you. :good:

    #1304424
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I have Mori as a lay for the Ribblesdale. For me, much is being made of her being by Frankel out of Midday.

    Breeding aside, her bare form looks miles short of Group 2 class. Her maiden hasn’t worked out well, with the highest place rating from it being 75. Mori earned a rating of 88 for that maiden and went into the Listed Height Of Fashion Stakes as the narrow favourite from Icespire. Icespire was a filly who had been touted a fair bit in the Spring as a promising sort for John Gosden but she was a beaten favourite first time up this year and she was bitterly disappointing in last place behind Mori, weakening tamely over the extra two furlongs that day. It left Mori with little to beat really and runner up Coconut Creme had come into the race as a Beverley maiden winner for the master of of winning poor maidens with very expensive horses, William Haggas.

    Mori only went up 3 lbs for winning a Listed race last time and that’s not a lot of improvement. More worryingly, 91 is a desperate figure for a Listed grade winner. It is also a moot point about Mori getting the extra 2 furlongs. Half brother Midterm was beaten on all three attempts at a mile and a half, and his sire Galileo often imparts that bit of extra stamina. Mori has Frankel on one side, with sprinter Kind being his mum. On the dam side Oasis Dream is also a sprinter. There would be a concern for me there but my biggest worry is that she just isn’t anywhere near Group 2 class. You can argue she will improve but going from 88 to 91 last time did not indicate rapid progress to me.

    For me Alluringly appeals more. Third in the Oaks, albeit well thumped, sets the standard and she is rated 106, which is a shade over a stone ahead of Mori. There is no reason to really see anything reversing Oaks form with Alluringly and as long as she shows up she looks an each-way lock at 5/1. Some of those in the current betting won’t be turning up and it may be a smallish field in the end.

    Mori is 7/2 in places now and that’s rank value in my opinion. I think her last race was little more than a penalty kick with the 2nd fav running like a drain.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1304426
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.

    Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words

    5-1 is hardly 6-4 though is it…

    Judge – we are just going round in circles here. Yes its not 6/4 but as ive said, i dont feel 5s is a fair price for the punters. Im not on anything so if youve backed Mori I certainly hope she wins for you. :good:

    Ok Clints but just the way you were banging on about price it was like she was a short priced fav or something

    5-1 seems fair but if she’s coming in to 7-2 or even shorter that changes a lot

    also I think Stoute is more in form now… he had a winner yesterday and possibly timing his run for Royal ascot

    #1304428
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    I don’t get the stamina issue… looking at her last two runs the best part for her was the final part of the race.. also she’s by Frankel out of midday. Midday finished 2nd in the Oaks and Frankel never raced over 1 mile four but I’m sure if he had he wouldn’t have had a problem and all his progeny seem to stay really well.

    bigger issue seems to be the form isn’t that great but who cares she’s an improving michael stoute 3 year old, that’ll do for me :good:

    you’re right clints she shouldn’t be 5-1 she should be 1.01

    #1304431
    Clints
    Participant
    • Total Posts 109

    I don’t get the stamina issue… looking at her last two runs the best part for her was the final part of the race.. also she’s by Frankel out of midday. Midday finished 2nd in the Oaks and Frankel never raced over 1 mile four but I’m sure if he had he wouldn’t have had a problem and all his progeny seem to stay really well.

    bigger issue seems to be the form isn’t that great but who cares she’s an improving michael stoute 3 year old, that’ll do for me :good:

    you’re right clints she shouldn’t be 5-1 she should be 1.01

    Not long to wait and find out Judge. Wish I had your confidence

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