Nap, Lay and Each Way

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot 2017 Nap, Lay and Each Way

This topic contains 81 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by  Clints 2 years ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 82 total)
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  • #1304450
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    All my three are first day!!

    RIBCHESTER NAP IMO only has the american horse to beat!!

    SIGNS OF BLESSING LAY This cannot win unless we have a deluge it needs soft ground and to be honest probably further than five furlongs!!

    WHO DARES WINS E/W This has a massive chance in the ascot Stakes and at 14/1 and 12/1 it will not be out of the frame and come the day will be a lot shorter and IMO only Mullins horses will stop it being favourite!!

    Good Luck Guys :good: :good:

    #1304473
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    I’m happy anyway. Backed Alluringly at 5/1, which I said looked an each-way lock. Pulled up Oddschecker after lunch and Alluringly is 3/1 :good:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1304476
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    I’m happy anyway. Backed Alluringly at 5/1, which I said looked an each-way lock. Pulled up Oddschecker after lunch and Alluringly is 3/1 :good:

    Good for you steve, I fancy Mori, you fancy Alluringly, let’s not overanalyse it like the derby was overanalysed to death in some quarters including on here, it’s only a horse race after all between some dumb animals running around in a grassy field miles from where any of us lives ;-)

    #1304505
    stevecaution
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    I’m happy anyway. Backed Alluringly at 5/1, which I said looked an each-way lock. Pulled up Oddschecker after lunch and Alluringly is 3/1 :good:

    Good for you steve, I fancy Mori, you fancy Alluringly, let’s not overanalyse it like the derby was overanalysed to death in some quarters including on here, it’s only a horse race after all between some dumb animals running around in a grassy field miles from where any of us lives ;-)

    No harm in analysing the form. We need to use something as a tool for finding the winner. As you say, Mori could improve a lot but she needs to and on balance I feel she has a bit much to find.

    Alluringly has three and three quarters of a length margin over Horseplay from the Oaks and another length on top of that over Coronet, who has looked to be too slow in grabbing a decent place early in her races, leaving her with a lot to do. John Gosden has said Coronet has to “Do her own thing” in a race, which I feel is a euphemism for “She’s a plodder”

    Mori could be the fly in the ointment here, with Horseplay not re-opposing and Coronet unlikely to like the lively ground based on her last couple of runs.

    I looked for what I thought was value odds. Ladbrokes and Corals have both cut Alluringly to 5/2 and the O’Brien factor on the day could see her shorter than that. None of that guarantees that she will win though. Mori is a bit of an unknown quantity and will be competitive if she can improve about 10 lbs here.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1304511
    raymo61
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    I think the fly in the ointment could be Naughty Or Nice Steve!!
    Possible BIG improver and definitely gets the trip and at 12/1 is interesting!!

    Can’t have Mori on my mind !! Stoute’s record in this race is shocking and he has favourites beat in it too!!

    I am not a big fan of Oaks runners in this either so that would leave Gosdens other one which got beat easy by Horseplay (Not exactly good form) hence me falling on NON !!

    #1304514
    stevecaution
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    I did look at Naughty Or Nice Raymo. She is 2/2 but I just thought she scrambled home last time over 13F.

    I think Finn McCool, who was third in that race is a cuddy. Hard to believe he was an early favourite for the Epsom Derby after he was given the name originally given to another colt who then had his name changed before his racecourse debut, as it was deemed that he wasn’t talented enough to keep the name. Some thought that Ballydoyle letting this colt keep the name meant he might be talented but he’s very moderate. The whole bunch in that event just seem moderate and disappointing.

    You never know of course but I think Naughty Or Nice needs to find a stone here and while that is possible, it’s still a bit to ask.

    Alluringly still has some scope I think. She was second to Enable and then third to Enable. Enable is a 122 rated Oaks winner, which is well above average, making Alluringly look the one in a fairly mediocre looking Ribblesdale.

    Good luck to all though, it’s only my take on this race.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1304518
    Voleur
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    I’m going to go for Alluringly here, I think 3/1 is a fair price all things considered. Her form is head and shoulders above anything else in the race; beating the since undefeated Dabulena in her maiden, 2nd to the eventual Oaks winner, and then 3rd in the Oaks itself, beaten by two top class fillies. I think anything in this Ribblesdale field is going to have to improve a lot to beat this filly, we’ve seen in previous years how Ballydoyle’s second string can improve significantly themselves as the season progresses, e.g Alice Springs, Seventh Heaven, Somehow.

    Alluringly 3/1.

    #1304535
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    Steve – I quietly think you have such a fearless reputation amongst the high street bookmakers that you’ve single handedly got them running scared with you’re punt on Alluringly at 5/1.

    No better than 3s now…

    It’s a race I’m going to keep my powder dry on for the time being however, bringing this back to the topic, I wouldn’t want to lay Mori as it’s a race that probably won’t take a lot of winning.

    #1304556
    thejudge1
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    Surely it’s living in dream land to think that this forum has one iota of influence on bookmakers prices.

    Mori for me could hack up in this. Don’t rate alluringly at all. Think her dam midday improved massively when stepped up to a mile and a half and wouldn’t surprise me if Mori did the same

    #1304557
    raymo61
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    Not biased by her being by Frankel are you Judge?

    #1304560
    Triptych
    Triptych
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    @Raymo…
    Not biased by her being by Frankel are you Judge?

    He probably is Raymo and I most certainly am too.
    Frankel and Midday (a match made in Heaven and a long way from dumb) :yes:

    I have a rule that I never back anything at Royal Ascot that has run at Epsom, the track takes its toll and Ascot comes to soon for horses to recover, so that rules Alluringly out for me and leaves the race to Mori for the taking.

    Looking forward to this race. Good luck everyone :rose:
    Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1304567
    CharlesOlney
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    Surely it’s living in dream land to think that this forum has one iota of influence on bookmakers prices.

    Mori for me could hack up in this. Don’t rate alluringly at all. Think her dam midday improved massively when stepped up to a mile and a half and wouldn’t surprise me if Mori did the same

    I was making a very sarcastic joke there about Steve’s bet but yeah, could you imagine if they did? Prices would be bouncing around all over the shot.

    I’m with you that Mori seems the most likely winner given the lack of opposition (agreed that Alluringly doesn’t seem a tough nut to crack) and her upward career trajectory. It would seem naïve to try and lay her.

    #1304571
    stevecaution
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    Steve – I quietly think you have such a fearless reputation amongst the high street bookmakers that you’ve single handedly got them running scared with you’re punt on Alluringly at 5/1.

    No better than 3s now…

    It’s a race I’m going to keep my powder dry on for the time being however, bringing this back to the topic, I wouldn’t want to lay Mori as it’s a race that probably won’t take a lot of winning.

    There is no way the amount of money I am punting is making any difference.

    I felt this year’s Oaks looked a good one and sometimes the Ribblesdale is a bit naff. Last year’s race was certainly poor quality.

    I came to Alluringly simply because nothing else appealed at all to me, it looks a Group 3 race to my eyes really.

    I could see concerns about going in on Alluringly if she were a short priced favourite coming here from the Oaks, but at 5/1 there was much more concern regarding the quality of the form of most of the field, therefore it was any easy choice for me.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1304573
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    Not biased by her being by Frankel are you Judge?

    Yeah I am biased because she’s by Frankel as one of the biggest factors for me is breeding and that indicates that she’s very well bred. Alluringly pedigree just doesn’t stand out to me although like most O’Briens she has nice breeding, it’s just not outstanding.

    Am I biased towards frankels in general? No. Judge every horse on it’s merits.

    Speaking of Frankel can anyone name a single Frankel two year old running at Royal Ascot this year, I can’t think of any.

    Completely agree with Jac that it pays to give the Epsom runners a wide berth.

    #1304699
    Nathan Hughes
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    Surely it’s living in dream land to think that this forum has one iota of influence on bookmakers prices

    Gingertipster reckons the reason on-line bookmakers haven’t banned him is because they use his bets to help form the market…….. :wacko:

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
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