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Hi lads
It’s no surprise to me that Leopardstown distances are suspect- anyone on Twitter will remember us having a very similar discussion around this time last year. I wouldn’t believe them there if they told me tomorrow was Wednesday- they don’t care about accuracy.Ground is a huge factor here- looks likely to be on the soft side of good at best which will be against Bated Breath and Sole Power. It’s not hard to see why Wizz Kid is the big mover- soft ground suits her well.
They’re in the pub…
http://www.afr.com/p/national/no_humbli … FfUmE87CeOAge 45
Gender M
Location (area/type) Kildare Ireland
Occupation / Class self-employed vet
Political views believe in small government and minimal intervention in markets- abhor the "too big to fail" and bailout culture of the past years.
Relationship status married, 3 kids under 4!
How often do you go racing? reasonable amount- more NH than Flat, love the Festival meetings.
Favourite racecourse(s)? Cheltenham, York, Galway and Bellewstown.
How would you improve the racegoing experience? Lower admission charges (is happening here) and get rid of the daft separate enclosures and dress codes- Ascot the most egregious example.
What initially got you into racing? Me Dad!
Which other sports to you watch? Rugby, golf, big events in others (enjoying Euro 2012 at the mo.)
Flat or Jumps? Jumps
Favourite horse(s) of all time? Carvills Hill (obviously). A flawed monster.
Racing hero(s)? Barney Curley, Jack Ramsden.
Do you gamble? (if so to what extent, if not why not) Most days. Second job really, takes as much time as the "real" one!
What are your views on promotion of the sport? Don’t like the attention on peripheral rubbish like music shows and so on- the horses are the thing.
What are your views on animal welfare? horses love racing. All sports are dangerous. Horses live a wonderful life. Remove all the risks, no sport left.
How would you improve the sport in general? Cut the bottom end loose- let it self-finance with the help of the bookies if they want it. Concentrate on the better stuff and reduce the fixture list. Replace lower grade handicaps with claimers, that way the cheats lose their horses.
Finally, is racing bent? of course it is- there is money involved. Is it rampant? No.
Anything else? No.Nottingham was a cracking jumps track though, tragedy when they stopped the NH there.
Just got Top Boy added to Coral’s Cov market via James Knight on Twitter and cheekily suggested he go 100/1 which he did! Had a ton each way of that, there are worse 100/1 shots!
If he’s going to take on the Triple Crown the Arc is a non-starter. There is easily scope for him to take on Freakel in the Juddmonte but I have a terrible feeling it won’t happen- I can’t see them wanting to get him geed up for 10f again if he’s going for the Leger.
The climate adjustment might not be that much- our summers are about the same as Aussie winters at the moment! Like the many named one, I have to try and find something to beat her and came down on the side of Society Rock who got me out of the smelly stuff in this last year- his Royal Ascot record is second to none and he must be value for the place at least- I thought his last run was a good prep for this.
Richard Hughes intimates Sir Prancealot may stay at 5f for the Norfolk in his RP column today. Would have liked to see big quotes about the horse he beat at Sandown who looked like 6f would suit but not quoted by the only ones up, Corals.
This debate isn’t confined to Flat racing either. The word on the Cheltenham street was that the professionals were far from happy about the ground on the New course on the Thursday especially, saying that it had been overwatered and that there were false patches. In conjunction with fatal injuries on the unwatered XCountry course, it’s hard to know what a clerk should do.
I’m very keen on Rare Bob and have been backing him for some time. I don’t think he’s a dodgy jumper- handled these fences well in the Beecher. far from disliking it I think he wants better ground these days. Lovely quiet prep, nice run last day when not given a hard race at Naas- even the current 40/1 is far too big IMO.
I find the answers given to some excellent questions a little perplexing. Anyone setting out to make a profit over time without taking cognisance of betting at value prices is doomed to failure. Further,any service achieving initial success will inevitably spark a snowball effect which will reduce prices to below what is value long term. The fact that neither partner has succeeded at betting for a living before further undermines confidence in the venture. I wish them luck but they may find that reality and theory are two different animals.
Great thread Tim- will definitely look in here more often in 2012- keep it up mate!
Oh and Happy Birthday!I have conversed fairly often with Paul on Twitter and mean to go and visit him in the new year if he’s willing. He comes across as a genuinely nice guy and very grounded and normal.
I think he finds it easier to have the racecourse as his office and do most of his betting there. Also, and this is conjecture on my part a horse may be showing 20 on Betfair but to back it to win £50 or £100k it will obviously require getting some lumpy bets taken by the bookies in the ring at 14 or 16/1. This guy turns over serious dough and wouldn’t be fiddling about in 50s and hundreds like the rest of us on the machine.
I can testify personally to the "lumpiness" of trading at the outer reaches of the market. From being down going into November I recovered to hit the figure you mention above today. I don’t feel I was doing much different but hit two big jackpots and a few long prices. I can confirm how hard it is to keep a level perspective when things are going badly.Croc is at the poor end of the scale but if you offered him to Irish racefans to replace Dessie Scahill we’d take your arm off.
