December 27, 2011 at 07:18 #20618CavParticipant
December 27, 2011 at 14:05 #384393cormack15Keymaster
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Really interesting Cav, thanks for that.
I’ve spent a good part of the last year wrestling with a database of over 36,000,000 items of UK racing results info while at the same time reading lots about various stock management theories. Beginning to make progress but still a bit of a way to go before I reach my goal (sustaining a consistent profit over a period of at least a year). It seems very far away.
Couple of interesting components of that article –
Turnover requirements are often overlooked by the average punter. That stat on what you need turn over each day to make £25k a year on 5% POT is illuminating (although looks slightly inflated, doesn’t allow for 7 day-a-week racing). As is the stat that the lad works 80 hours per week. Not many people prepared to do that (and not many would expect a pro-gambler to do so I expect, the public perception of a pro-gambler being of a high-roller who does little or no work).
It’s not exactly clear what type of bets Moulton specialises in (looks like ‘outsiders’ and ‘pool bets’) but he seems to operate in an environment where long losing runs inevitably occur. In that situation, with large turnover requirements, you’d need a pretty significant bank.
The other aspect is that you need to have a special type of psychology to operate as a pro-gambler IMO. I think this is another over-looked factor. Most people are just emotionally ill-equipped to deal with the highs and lows (over the short or long-term). Selling your E-type Jag to raise funds and losing it within three quarters of an hour would have been a death-knell for most (I’d certainly have been crushed and would have been looking at the job-ads).
Yet another item of interest is how having additional information
available is not always beneficial. I had an interesting psychology article on that which I’ll try to find again which illustrated the relationship of confidence levels Vs information quantity Vs quality of decision. It’s not about the quantity of info IMO. It’s about identifying the info that is underbet. That’s been the basis of my research this past year.
Understandably, given the obvious need to keep their selection/staking process secretive, little is written/known about pro gamblers so this type of article is rare.
Thanks for the link Cav.December 27, 2011 at 15:59 #384419Woolf121Participant
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To make a modest £25,000 pa one would need to turnover £2000 per day or £500,000 per year. That seems a worrying investment for such a poor return. To withstand the long losing runs that are probable one would need nerves of steel.December 27, 2011 at 16:28 #384431SteeplechasingParticipant
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Excellent article – thanks for posting. Paul Moulton made a large donation to our charity walk for prostate cancer in September, for which we were hugely grateful.
His key point, as mentioned again by David, is the temperament: I’ve no doubt that 99% of failed ‘pro-punters’ go under because of personal doubt/panic when things go against them.
All the best to Paul in his continued quest for value – the only thing that matters.
Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/December 27, 2011 at 16:44 #384435indocineMember
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With 93% losers, he has to be dutching at >12/1. Doesn’t make sense for that particular type of business to be placed anywhere other than on Betfair, given the fav-longshot bias off course. So, don’t understand his daily travelling grind unless paddock watching is absolutely key to him. Urgh.December 29, 2011 at 23:21 #384902carvillshillParticipant
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I have conversed fairly often with Paul on Twitter and mean to go and visit him in the new year if he’s willing. He comes across as a genuinely nice guy and very grounded and normal.
I think he finds it easier to have the racecourse as his office and do most of his betting there. Also, and this is conjecture on my part a horse may be showing 20 on Betfair but to back it to win £50 or £100k it will obviously require getting some lumpy bets taken by the bookies in the ring at 14 or 16/1. This guy turns over serious dough and wouldn’t be fiddling about in 50s and hundreds like the rest of us on the machine.
I can testify personally to the "lumpiness" of trading at the outer reaches of the market. From being down going into November I recovered to hit the figure you mention above today. I don’t feel I was doing much different but hit two big jackpots and a few long prices. I can confirm how hard it is to keep a level perspective when things are going badly.December 30, 2011 at 01:12 #384911gambleParticipant
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A loner it would seem
on misery bets
nothings for free
Go on Carvills
buy that man
a cup of teaDecember 30, 2011 at 21:38 #385017Woolf121Participant
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Losing runs of 30 cannot be unusual for him, Ive known losing runs of 13 backing evens to 7/2. I wouldn’t want to guess his defecit following 25 to 30 losers.
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