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In response to the question about staking, I think Ginger is wrong and I’ve been trying to convince him of this for years!
To me it is logical to stake most on what you consider are the best value bets regardless of price. I try to have the same or more on my 20/1 shots as I do on my 4/1s- not easy, but it’s the few of these big priced ones that go in every so often that make the big difference to the bottom line at the end of a year.
Alan Potts in his seminal work "Against The Crowd" some years ago said that he always thought of profits from the shorter odds bets as paying the stakes for the longshot bets, any return from which was then pure profit- I still love that line of reasoning.Oasisdreamer
Personally I use the RP site exclusively for looking at races- it’s just what I’m used to. I keep all my notes on horses there now and if there’s a horse I particularly want to follow I use horseracebase- they send you a daily email now with any of your horses or system qualifiers which are running.I took RI for a few years but have ditched it this year after finding a site called horseracebase.com. The latter does much the same in the line of tracking horses, you can also track systems and build systems just as well as on RI. The clincher? You only need to pay a minimum of €7.50 per month. The developer Chris Bagnall posts on here and gives very good backup.
Peddlers Cross had been ready to to race for at least a month, and his trainer reported afterwards only that he would "come on a touch" for the race.
Considering pace, distance, and heavy ground all served to emphasise his stamina, his workmanlike win suggests he won’t have the speed for a Champion Hurdle (Hardy Eustace showed a better turn of foot when winning his RSA), and his ‘ability to produce more’ is more a sign of his inherent stamina than any ability to change gear.I think it’s dangerous to assume he will be outpaced in a Champion- especially if there’s a bit of juice in the ground. One thing you know is that he’ll keep finding for pressure. I want him on my side at this stage and at the prices would far rather back him than Binocular. His style of racing means he will always be a bit underestimated, IMO.
My opinion of Nicky Henderson has not improved after reading about this case. It stretches credulity in my view that he didn’t know exactly what was going on in his own yard on race day and the full implications of same. It seems very convenient to blame the vet, who in most cases such as this, is merely doing what the client asks him to do.
There was obviously a belief that this stuff "didn’t test" which is only true until they start looking for it.
Might not be as inclined to shout home the handsome horses with the breastgirths from now on.There was some excellent veterinary work done a few years ago which seemed to suggest that the reality of this is counterintuitive- that is, the earlier horses are put into training the more likely they are to stay sound. Makes perfect sense to me- the sooner you begin training young tendons, ligaments and bones the sturdier and more resistent to damage they become. The recent success of French bred horses in National Hunt racing surely proves the point. the age of the old-style Irish 5yo "store" horse may be over.
Horse A wins his race and is 20 lengths in front of horse B at the line who is in turn 10 lengths ahead of horse C. Making Horse A 30 lengths superior to horse C. Agreed?
But, by the time horse B gets to the finishing line, horse C has caught up with him and dead-heats for second place.
The result will show on paper the distances as 20 lengths and a dead-heat, suggesting that horse A is 20 lengths superior to horse C (assuming level weights) whereas he was actually 30 lengths superior.
Go handicap!
Surely it makes more sense to handicap horses on the time it takes them to finish the race rather than where they were when the winner crossed the line?
Had to come. Have always been a Weekender man myself, but this can only be good. Tyrone Molloy must be sending out a few CVs though.
emmm…. Istabraq had won the Sun Alliance the year before he won his first Champion Hurdle.
I’ve made the argument before I think on your thread Fister that it doesn’t really matter what the injury is, these are finely tuned athletes and any time off is significant from the point of view of staying sound in the future.
As I laid him at about 5/1 it wouldn’t be a disaster if I had to trade out at 9/2 on the day!I laid him fairly substantially after he won at Leopardstown because
He’s never been to Cheltenham
He’s missed games a lot through injury
He won’t start much shorter on the day even if he gets there.I suspect I’m not alone in taking this view.
I thought this thread was about the freak results in irish bumpers this season as per the article in today’s Post. I keep telling punting friends over here they are a mug’s game but the lure of the "whisper" is too strong…
BTW Carv you are a bit fickle. When I wrote off Cousin Vinny a couple of seasons ago stating there was no way he was a Cheltenham horse you gave me hell for it and here you are with the shoe on the other foot.
I’ll stick by Micky D for the meantime and let’s see what happenes
Your memory must be playing tricks Fister, Cousin Vinny was my Bismarck that year and I put up Go Native at 14/1.
Great review CR.
Agree largely that 2010 wasn’t a vintage year but there were highlights, notably being at Aintree to see Tony McCoy finally win the National, Big Zeb pulverising the English in the Champion Chase and a highly interesting series of "next big thing" two-year-olds at the back end of the Flat season.
I too have been a less frequent visitor here for both the technological reasons previously cited and the disappointing tenor of a lot of debate here lately- I prefer erudite discussion of forthcoming races without a lot of willy-waving and seem to have found a richer seam of this on the Purple lately. For all that I still love this site and if Corm can get the site working better I’ll be around more in 2011.
On the punting front 2010 was kind, no little thanks to keeping a positive crew around online to chat to- some on here seem to regard oneupmanship as more important than information sharing, their loss.
Happy New Year to all on TRF.I’m hoping English isn’t your first language.
Certainly on oddschecker if you click on a horse’s name the historical odds are shown by time down the page.Reasons
not
to back Mikael d’Haganuet ante post.
1. How do you know he’ll run in the RSA? With the new intermediate distance novice chase he now has three options, and I doubt even WP Mullins knows which race he’ll run in yet. The sad thing about the expanded Festival is that horses can duck each other too easily- it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he and TFR avoided each other, perhaps with Mikael going for the in-between race.
2. This is a horse who’s been off a long time- backing horses like him and Hurricane Fly ante post is a dangerous game- they are less likely than most to make it to Prestbury Park fit and well.
In short, if I were a bookie I’d be very happy to lay your 8/1, win or lose.3.He’s just had a bad fall, and I wasn’t 100% convinced by his fencing technique- he didn’t give them much air and soemtimes a horse that jumps like that can become a bit careful after a fall- I’d want to see a nice safe clear round next time out.
They say that those who fail to learn their history are doomed to keep repeating the same mistakes….
