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Hi all
I need help. I am not a big buks gambler but really enjoy trying to work out what is good value and love trying to work out when a horse is a " good thing". The problem is that I mess all this up by having fun bets. Today is a typical example. I spent maybe 6 hours last night surfing the net and checking form and came up with Samain in the 17.10 at NASS as a banker. Bet it big time but then spent the afternoon betting on silly bets at sedfield etc just because there was racing on. The net result was I was lodsa money down until Samain won and now broke even !!
HELP URGENTLY REQUIRED !!1Don’t watch it on the telly. Leave the house, take a bath, put up some shelves, anything that will stop you from putting that television on until the race of your choice.
Or do what I do & put a 10p Lucky 63 on at the start of the day. If I’ve got every race covered with a multiple, I’m less tempted to have a bet on each race as the day goes on.
To me, if I’ve ever lost four or five in a row, I’d stop calling it a fun bet for sure!
If you’ve spent hours working out form, then make a note of that form.
Only bet on races you have worked out.
It’s discipline.
If I’d done what you’ve done Pagegriff, I’d think seriously wether I had a gambling problem.
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
I don’t believe in banker bets when it comes to horse racing.
I believe in spread betting.
You may feel different but that’s my opinion."Fun" bets for me are the popular bets e.g. cup finals when everybody asks you to come to the pub to watch the game.
I may or may not like to bet but if I don’t, I am under some pressure by the environment to do so. Usually it turns out to be a loser.
Resist or bet small.put more on the fun bets, double,treble or quadruple the stake. if you get sick of losing you may wise up. If your not horrified by your loses you will never learn.
How do you guys decide if a bet is a one point bet or a five point bet (on a scale of one to five)??
We can all back winners but it’s having a feel for when you’re confidence is correct or misplaced that I struggle with.
As I say to my pal it’s not how many winners you back, it’s how many losers you DON’T back that is key. Losing bets >> lack of confidence and chasing your losses.
To the OP i’d say be far more disciplined and set your lowest stake at a value where you’ll feel the pain (slightly) if the bet is a loser…and yes I struggle with that strategy too!
Put a betting bank aside and stick to it.
How do you guys decide if a bet is a one point bet or a five point bet (on a scale of one to five)??
In my opinion staking should be directly related to the chance of winning, risk and how much value is in the bet.
If selection “A” has double the chance of winning as selection “B” then “A” should (imo) have double the stake. If a selection is particularly good value, it should have more money staked than a marginal value selection.
If I believe a selection has a 20% (fair 4/1) chance of winning, and is available @ 5/1 (16.7%), I’d stake 20 points (as it’s a 20% chance) plus 10 points (because the difference between my assessment and available price is 3.3% x 3 (20% – 16.7% = 3.3% x 3 = 9.9 points rounded up). So my stake is 20 + 10 = 30 points @ 5/1 returning 180 points with 150 points profit.
If I believe something has a 10% (fair 9/1) chance of winning, and is available @ 12/1 (7.7%), I’d stake 10 points + 7 (for difference, 10 – 7.7 = 2.3 x 3 = 6.9 rounded up) = 17 points @ 12/1 for a return of 221 points and 204 points profit.Those with a bigger chance of winning should have a greater amount staked. Yet those with less chance of winning should win the greater amount, because the amount risked is comparatively smaller. This way of staking does both of these things.
I myself do not agree with staking a percentage of bank as such. Why should something with a 20% chance of winning have £100 staked one week and £50 or £200 the next? The stake should be roughly the same. Although of course from time to time (every season for example) a punter should look at how much a “point” should amount to, in relation to his available “bank” (bank account) / available money.
Not 1 to 5, but around 7 for something I believe has aa 2.5% chance (roughly 40/1) available at 100/1 (1%) 2.5 – 1 = 1.5 X 3 = 4.5 + 2.5 = 7 points; to around 90 for something I believe is a 60% (fair 4/6) available at Evens (50%) 60 – 50 = 10 X 3 = 30 + 60 = 90 points, or 0.7 to 9 points if you prefer.
Value Is EverythingI find entering the competitions on the forum are a fun way of avoiding having the fun bets you mention. Bob Rolf’s 4pp should keep you busy on a Saturday and Cormack is always running stuff in the competitions section. You can win prizes but you don’t lose anything for taking part. If your struggling through the week then easyodds run a top tipster comp where you can have a virtual tenner on any or every race if you wish. Just a suggestion….
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I also found it difficult to stop havinbg fun bets and although I stayed within my overall budget I failed often to stake properly to maximise my greater knowledge in the big races.
I came across a simple sytem in a book by Andy Beyer (Picking Winners) which divided races into two categories
A. Prime bets (bankers, races where you have expertise or have done considerable work, 50% expectation of winning at 7/5 odds or above, 5-10% of total bank)
B. Action bets (fun bets, all other races you find it hard to resisit before or after the Prime bets)Essentially the advice was this …acknowledge your weakness for action bets but control and try to maximise enjoyment and minimise losses. Action bets should amount to no more than 33% of your stakes.
Prime bets are what will make or day your day/week ..ensure you place 67% of your stakes in these areas of knowledge.Do not stop trying with the action bets…there is lots to be learned from these races and there is no reason to assume an automatic loss.
If you are placing 70%ish on Prime bets then the money is mostly going where it belongs but the need to have action/fun which is necessary to make the wait for the bigger bets bearable.
The above has definitely helped me.
In response to the question about staking, I think Ginger is wrong and I’ve been trying to convince him of this for years!
To me it is logical to stake most on what you consider are the best value bets regardless of price. I try to have the same or more on my 20/1 shots as I do on my 4/1s- not easy, but it’s the few of these big priced ones that go in every so often that make the big difference to the bottom line at the end of a year.
Alan Potts in his seminal work "Against The Crowd" some years ago said that he always thought of profits from the shorter odds bets as paying the stakes for the longshot bets, any return from which was then pure profit- I still love that line of reasoning.- Total Posts 17716
How
do you
know a bet is a fun bet ?
This happened to me:
I wanted to go to the race course one day but it was late.
So I decided to go to betting shop instead for the 1st and 2nd and then take transport to the race course to be there at the 4th.
I considered the 3d race was the one to miss because it looked like a big puzzle, impossible to fathom.
In the event the transport was fast so leaving the betting shop premises after the 2nd race, I made it to the race course just a little before the 3d.
So because of my weak nature, I gambled 5 euros.
The result ? I earned 500 !I find entering the competitions on the forum are a fun way of avoiding having the fun bets you mention. Bob Rolf’s 4pp should keep you busy on a Saturday and Cormack is always running stuff in the competitions section. You can win prizes but you don’t lose anything for taking part. If your struggling through the week then easyodds run a top tipster comp where you can have a virtual tenner on any or every race if you wish. Just a suggestion….
That’s funny because I find it’s the opposite for me.
I might have one or two bets for a Saturday but if I enter the 4PP (or similar) I can’t let the other 2 horses go without a small bet on them.
I have to avoid those types of competitions or I just end up breaking my heart.
I doubt you will stop, because by their nature they are ‘fun’. However you have to ensure they are substantially lower than your stakes on serious bets. Very substantial.
In response to the question about staking, I think Ginger is wrong and I’ve been trying to convince him of this for years!
To me it is logical to stake most on what you consider are the best value bets regardless of price. I try to have the same or more on my 20/1 shots as I do on my 4/1s- not easy, but it’s the few of these big priced ones that go in every so often that make the big difference to the bottom line at the end of a year.
Alan Potts in his seminal work "Against The Crowd" some years ago said that he always thought of profits from the shorter odds bets as paying the stakes for the longshot bets, any return from which was then pure profit- I still love that line of reasoning.I would not say you are "wrong" Carv, if it works for you then it is right to continue.
I too have Alan Potts books and have learnt a great deal from them, and when talking to him at the races. Think you need to be a certain type of punter doing it your way Carv, someone who is not effected by long losing runs. These are bound to happen betting at big prices. By backing big stakes on them means a losing run loses even more money. No doubt the tide turns eventually and you end up in profit, but I’d personally lose confidence that way. Confidence is important, as it can effect judgement of what is the value bet / bets.
You’re also relying more on having those big priced winners than I am. There will be a time when they don’t appear as often one year, and you lose out. Know most years I have at least a few 20/1+ winners, but this season can’t remember any (yet). But this is more than made up with winners from the other price brackets.
I think when you fist told me I should add more to the "value" side of the stake Carv, I was doing X 1 the difference between my price and bookies price. After listening to your good self and Cormack, I changed it to X 3. Will look at it again at the end of the season to see if it should be changed. Possibly to 4 or 5 times! I do listen occasionally you know.
Value Is EverythingKnow most years I have at least a few 20/1+ winners
A few? That’s just not good enough.
You do know that you need to win at least 4.77% of your bets at 20/1 to make a profit don’t you!
You joker!
No, I did not know you had to win 4.77% David. I thought it was 4.762.
Did say "at least a few".
Actually, a few wins at 20/1+ is enough.
Because I don’t have as many as 100 bets at 20/1+, well, I don’t think I do.Value Is Everything
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