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Fist’s Diary

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  • #12099
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    In repsonse to my best friend Carv badgering the backside off me to joins Lays and Plays. I don’t bet every day so that is not my thing but for peace of mind and to keep him happy I have decided to keep a notebook on bets and horses I am waiting to run. I will run this from now until the 2000 guineas 2010 result is in then start again.

    I wont include my cheltenham AP bets just yet but will bring them here as They are all recorded on the Cheltenham forum.

    I work on a points sytem and pets range from 500pts to 6000pts

    My next Antepost bets to run is Conduit in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes again both bets I had are recorded on that thread.

    Conduit 3,000 pts 5/1
    Conduit 2000 pts 3/1

    The Arc

    1000 ew Sariska 14/1 500 ew 25/1 2000 win 9/1
    Apparantly Sir Michael Stoute confirmed yesterday the Conduit will definitely go for the Arc. I couldn’t believe the way he has been drifting for the race which was probably due to the fact SMS kept saying there was no definite plan. 14/1 is way too generous.

    Fame and Glory is too short to have a decent bet on now but will take some beating. I don’t fancy the French filly, Sarsika is a sporting bet but very difficult to judge how she compares so hard to be ultra confident, There’s more chance of me ridng Sea the Stars at York that Oxx sending him here and the only other horse who I fancy is Casual Conquest who I backed as a saver only.

    2000 ew Conduit Arc De Triomphe 14/1

    500ew Casual Conquest 20/1

    The St Leger: I just can’t see AOB winnng this. SMS’s Harbinger is reported to be working brilliantly on his way to Goodwood where he is entered in the Gordon Stakes, the race Conduit won last year.

    However he is by no means sure to run in the St Leger as they are concerned about the trip. much depends on how he runs at Goodwood but the 12/1 was too big to let pass without having a bit on.

    1000 pts EW Harbinger

    In the past SMS has used the Great Voltiguer as a pre St Leger race for his runners. This year he runs Glass Harmonium who I love to bits and won’t miss the minute anyone puts up a price for him at Goodwood.
    He ran a brilliant race when winning the Hampton Court at Ascot. Sweeping round 10 horses turning for home he showed an excellent turn of foot to take it up before hanging like a pig and all but throwing the race away. That can be put down to the fact he was still a bit green the same reason he never ran in the Derby.

    It may only have been a listed race but this horse has a big future. As far as the St Leger goes he has the same problem as Harbinger and that is would he get the trip? Again we shoud no more after Goodwood but at the moment he can be regarded as a possible substitute. A few friends have backed him on the machine over the last few days at huge odds but the best price I was offered is 33/1. If I can get 50/1 or over I will back him ew just incase.

    My main fancy taking the trip and possible going into consideration is Mourayan. He caught my eye big time behind Fame and Glory and was coming back at them in the closing stages. He looks real St Leger type

    2000 ew Mourayan 9/1
    1000 win Mourayan 8/1

    I must admit I may have done money as he has been drifting like a barge on Betfair. Could be he won’t run for some reason but to date I have heard or read nothing to say he won’t. Sometimes Betfair is a terrible guide to what is really going on. Time will tell.

    2000 Guineas 2010

    I’ve been watching racing for over 40 years and never, with the exception of the Budapest Bullet, has a horse caught my imagination as much as Canford Cliffs. Like the former he just took the race by the scruff of the neck and after 2 furlongs the result was never in doubt. The difference is he looks a lot more powerful than Overdose and much more like a potentially brilliant classic winner.

    This horse never even got into it’s stride he was pulling his jockeys arms out and looked like he could have kept doing it for another mile.

    Richard Hannon will spend most of his time teaching this horse to settle and when he does calm down nothing on 4 legs will touch him.

    I’m totally convinced we have seen something really special he likes of we have never seen before and he will win the 2000 guineas in a common canter. A bold statement I know but this thing could walk on water.

    6000 win Canford Cliffs 8/1
    6000 ew Canford Cliffs 8/1
    3000 win Canford Cliffs 7/1

    ———————————————————————————————————

    So as far as this thread is concerned I am starting with a huge loss of 42,000 points so I have some catching up to do.

    Any bets I have during the course of each week I will post on here big or small.

    #240093
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    When Rippling Ring ran in the Supreme more than a few people incluing myself thought they had seen a potential top class chaser. On that run he would be so far ahead of these weight couldn’t bring them together.

    While he hasn’t been setting the world on fire he surely must have retained enough ability to win this. He has looked a bit one paced in the past but with AP on board he’ll sure to get every ounce out of him.

    He burst a blood vessell last time out and while there is no truth in the rumour he has been living at Nicky Hendersons 8) hopefully there won’t be a repeat here.

    2000 pts @ 5/2

    #240141
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    When Rippling Ring ran in the Supreme more than a few people incluing myself thought they had seen a potential top class chaser. On that run he would be so far ahead of these weight couldn’t bring them together.

    While he hasn’t been setting the world on fire he surely must have retained enough ability to win this. He has looked a bit one paced in the past but with AP on board he’ll sure to get every ounce out of him.

    He burst a blood vessell last time out and while there is no truth in the rumour he has been living at Nicky Hendersons 8) hopefully there won’t be a repeat here.

    2000 pts @ 5/2

    won + 5000
    balance – 37,000

    #240434
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Good start, good luck Fists

    #240446
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Cheers!

    Jonjo’s Night Cru has taken some time to get off the mark but came good at Uttoxeter last time out. Well thought of he was a costly gamble at Hereford last season but has come on a lot since then and this should be a formaility.

    The form of his last race may not look much at first glance but the 2nd has won since, the 3rd looked like trotting up until unseating his rider at the last at Market Rasen and to top that the 4th won at Cartmel.

    It is little wonder the best price going is 8/11. He probably should be nearer 1/2.

    AP hardly moved on him last time out on g/firm ground and didn’t take it up until the last hurdle and won by 4 lengths.

    I can’t see many of these being around to trouble him in the latter stages and AP may go on a bit sooner and hopefully win even easier than last time. (if he is able to of course)

    Reason being I have backed him to win and to win by 3 lengths or more to try and make a decent profit out of him.

    5,500 Night Cru 8/11
    2,000 Night Cru to win by 3 lengths or more 9/4

    #240470
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Cheers!

    Jonjo’s Night Cru has taken some time to get off the mark but came good at Uttoxeter last time out. Well thought of he was a costly gamble at Hereford last season but has come on a lot since then and this should be a formaility.

    The form of his last race may not look much at first glance but the 2nd has won since, the 3rd looked like trotting up until unseating his rider at the last at Market Rasen and to top that the 4th won at Cartmel.

    It is little wonder the best price going is 8/11. He probably should be nearer 1/2.

    AP hardly moved on him last time out on g/firm ground and didn’t take it up until the last hurdle and won by 4 lengths.

    I can’t see many of these being around to trouble him in the latter stages and AP may go on a bit sooner and hopefully win even easier than last time. (if he is able to of course)

    Reason being I have backed him to win and to win by 3 lengths or more to try and make a decent profit out of him.

    5,500 Night Cru 8/11
    2,000 Night Cru to win by 3 lengths or more 9/4

    Just got home couldn’t believe the 11/10 SP :shock:

    Won by neck + 2,000
    Balance -35,000

    #240655
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Fist, you didn’t tell me, i’ve missed the first two winners……. :(

    Anyway, fair play and good luck.

    #240747
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Thanks..boring racing but SMS has a nice horse here so having an interest
    500 pts sfc
    Strawberrydaiquiri
    Balaagha

    #240749
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25883

    Great start Fist, do you mind me asking how much 1 point is worth?.

    Member since March 2008
    #240750
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Thanks..boring racing but SMS has a nice horse here so having an interest
    500 pts sfc
    Strawberrydaiquiri
    Balaagha

    Won CSF paid 7.93
    +3565
    balance – 31,535

    #240818
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    The two horses Glass harmonium beat Cashelgar and Monitor Closely both run over the weekend. No bets but will be watching closely.

    Conduit 3,000 pts 5/1
    Conduit 2000 pts 3/1

    Withe the above bets already placed I am adding

    1,000 RFC
    Condit and Look Here

    She ran a cracker at Epsom before running over 1m2f she looks the main danger at this trip to me.

    3.15 Ascot

    Desert Creek lost out when didn’t make the cut at York. He most lkley wouldn’t make the cut at Goodwood in the Golden Mile either which left SMS with this entry. He’s a lovely horse but this is a race he has to win if he is to compete in better handicaps in the future.

    3000 pts Desert Creek 3/1

    If ever there was a way to get a horse beat it’s to take a horse like Special Reserve and show him a big wide open pace. His jockey made no attempt to cover him up last time out and any chane the horse had was gone after 2 furlongs.

    This is not a great race and if he can cover him up and put him to sleep he could be in the three or take a dafty and win. He’s fun to watch and usually runs into a place so:-

    Special Reserve
    1000 pts ew 9/1

    #240916
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    The two horses Glass harmonium beat Cashelgar and Monitor Closely both run over the weekend. No bets but will be watching closely.

    Conduit 3,000 pts 5/1 Won (Stake already deducted) + 18,000 pts
    Conduit 2000 pts 3/1

    Won (Stake already deducted) + 8,000 pts
    Withe the above bets already placed I am adding

    1,000 RFC
    Condit and Look Here

    Lost -2,000 pts

    She ran a cracker at Epsom before running over 1m2f she looks the main danger at this trip to me.

    3.15 Ascot

    Desert Creek lost out when didn’t make the cut at York. He most lkley wouldn’t make the cut at Goodwood in the Golden Mile either which left SMS with this entry. He’s a lovely horse but this is a race he has to win if he is to compete in better handicaps in the future.

    3000 pts Desert Creek 3/1

    Lost -3000 pts

    If ever there was a way to get a horse beat it’s to take a horse like Special Reserve and show him a big wide open pace. His jockey made no attempt to cover him up last time out and any chane the horse had was gone after 2 furlongs.

    This is not a great race and if he can cover him up and put him to sleep he could be in the three or take a dafty and win. He’s fun to watch and usually runs into a place so:-

    Special Reserve Lost 4th
    1000 pts ew 9/1

    -2,000

    Todays results + 19,000 pts
    Balance -12,535 pts

    #240996
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Sodexo Prestige Classified Stakes

    After a very impressive win last time out I’ve been waiting for William Haggas’s Shamali to run again

    With 2 1/2 furlongs to run at Ascot he was so far behind the leader and fav, Mabuya I thought he couldn’t possibly win. A gap appered between the two in front of him and Richard Hills, full of conficence eased him through into second. When the horse saw daylinght Hills asked him to lengthen his stride and with the minium of fuss he had caught and gone past the leader to win very easily.

    There was a very strong gallop that day which is a slight worry here as the race has cut up badly. He’s a bighorse this and I doubt if he would be as affective in a slow run race. However Richard Hills has very little trouble settling Shamali so hopefully if the pace it won’t affect him too badly if it goes that way.

    The race doesn’t look to difficult to read and as this is a mjor bet for meI hope I get it right.

    Just Lille made all at Hamilton and may cut out a decent pace here. Both Propenent and Sopranist also like to be up with the pace so there shouldn’t be any hanging about. The other runner The Cyateres like Shamaili needs to be held up so the front 3 should be looking to make this a proper test to try and take the sting out of the speed horses.

    Sopranist had some fancy entries at Goodwood but goes here instead. That could be taken as a tip but I IMO his talent is limited and he’s simply not good enough for the races he’s entered in. Unfancied he ran well to finish 2nd last time but was a bit one paced and was never going to beat the winner.

    He vever raced as a 2yo and doesn’t come across as a progressive type and his trainer doesn’t seem to have any big plans for him.

    Shamali has improved with each run this season and is being aimed at the Ebor Handicap. Not usually my thing but this horse could be just the type to improve again and

    Shamali’s target is the Ebor Handicap and although this is 4 furlongs shorter he won at this trip last time in the style of a horse who could go a lot further. He had plenty in hand that’s for sure and I see him as a bit of a good thing today.

    Proponent is the other obvious danger but I’m not sure he has the pace for this. He has won a class 2 race before but the form was let down badly.
    Roger Charlton has had a few winners lately andhe does seem to be hitting form but even at his best I can’t see him beating Shamali.

    If he wins well today expect he will be a hot order for the Ebor so I have backed him for both races.

    8,000 pts Shamali 6/4

    1500 pts ew Shamali 20/1 for the Tote Ebor

    #241039
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Pheonix Stakes

    I wasn’t going to have a bet in this but with Sopranist a non runner I am pretty confident Shamaili should win with the minimum of fuss.

    Unfortunately the Pheonix is off first so I coudd be gambling more than I would like to but the 30p deduction means I woudn’t be where I want to be going into Goodwwod.

    So I’m having a crack with caution.

    There has been a huge gamble on Alfred Nobel from 8/13 into 2/5 with Paddypower on their insurbet offers.

    I think Tommy Stacks Walk on Bye will just do him for toe and at 4/6 looks about as safe a bet as you could ever have. If she finishes 2nd in the race no harm done

    8000 pts 4/6 insurebet Walk on Bye

    #241054
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Sodexo Prestige Classified Stakes

    After a very impressive win last time out I’ve been waiting for William Haggas’s Shamali to run again

    With 2 1/2 furlongs to run at Ascot he was so far behind the leader and fav, Mabuya I thought he couldn’t possibly win. A gap appered between the two in front of him and Richard Hills, full of conficence eased him through into second. When the horse saw daylinght Hills asked him to lengthen his stride and with the minium of fuss he had caught and gone past the leader to win very easily.

    There was a very strong gallop that day which is a slight worry here as the race has cut up badly. He’s a bighorse this and I doubt if he would be as affective in a slow run race. However Richard Hills has very little trouble settling Shamali so hopefully if the pace it won’t affect him too badly if it goes that way.

    The race doesn’t look to difficult to read and as this is a mjor bet for meI hope I get it right.

    Just Lille made all at Hamilton and may cut out a decent pace here. Both Propenent and Sopranist also like to be up with the pace so there shouldn’t be any hanging about. The other runner The Cyateres like Shamaili needs to be held up so the front 3 should be looking to make this a proper test to try and take the sting out of the speed horses.

    Sopranist had some fancy entries at Goodwood but goes here instead. That could be taken as a tip but I IMO his talent is limited and he’s simply not good enough for the races he’s entered in. Unfancied he ran well to finish 2nd last time but was a bit one paced and was never going to beat the winner.

    He vever raced as a 2yo and doesn’t come across as a progressive type and his trainer doesn’t seem to have any big plans for him.

    Shamali has improved with each run this season and is being aimed at the Ebor Handicap. Not usually my thing but this horse could be just the type to improve again and

    Shamali’s target is the Ebor Handicap and although this is 4 furlongs shorter he won at this trip last time in the style of a horse who could go a lot further. He had plenty in hand that’s for sure and I see him as a bit of a good thing today.

    Proponent is the other obvious danger but I’m not sure he has the pace for this. He has won a class 2 race before but the form was let down badly.
    Roger Charlton has had a few winners lately andhe does seem to be hitting form but even at his best I can’t see him beating Shamali.

    If he wins well today expect he will be a hot order for the Ebor so I have backed him for both races.

    8,000 pts Shamali 6/4

    1500 pts ew Shamali 20/1 for the Tote Ebor

    Definitely a horse going places pity about the non runner. Biggest reaction came from Stan James who cut him from 20’s to 10’s jt 2nd fav for the Ebor

    + 8,400 30p in the pound deducted -3000 for Ebor bet +5,400

    Balance -7,135

    #241055
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Pheonix Stakes

    I wasn’t going to have a bet in this but with Sopranist a non runner I am pretty confident Shamaili should win with the minimum of fuss.

    Unfortunately the Pheonix is off first so I could be gambling more than I would like to but the 30p deduction means I woudn’t be where I want to be going into Goodwwod.

    So I’m having a crack with caution.

    There has been a huge gamble on Alfred Nobel from 8/13 into 2/5 with Paddypower on their insurbet offers.

    I think Tommy Stacks Walk on Bye will just do him for toe and at 4/6 looks about as safe a bet as you could ever have. If she finishes 2nd in the race no harm done

    8000 pts 4/6 insurebet Walk on Bye

    Lost 3rd :shock:

    -8,000

    Balance -15,135
    :

    #241084
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8695

    Fist, Fair play for taking Carvhills Carrot and sticking your neck on the line,i have never doubted there is years of knowledge in that head of yours
    and you have made a solid start to your Diary/betting thread,but what the **** is 8000 points? I can only hazard a guess that 1pt =10p in decimal currency,which is generally what we in the UK recognise! I just hope Carvhills 1pt isn"t the same! I will stick to betting in Sterling myself, it just gives a bit more credibility to a thread!

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