Fist’s Diary

[Anonymous]

I suggested on here a few weeks back that it was only a matter of time before Jonjo booked Dougie Costello for a big race.

Nice to see he took my advice My long range forecast is Dougie will take over as number 1 at Jackdaw when AP announces his retirement which may be sooner than some people think.

You heard it here first.

[Anonymous]

In the perfect Champion Hurdle world Menorah, Hurricane Fly, Binocluar and Peddlars Cross would fill the first 4 places in March but very seldom do thing work out the way we think. My own personal view is Hurricane Fly will win but one horse still bothers me that people seem to have forgotten exists.

"What if’s" very often become reality in racing and catch punters out because we’re a real fickle lot. One false move and overnight a budding champion becomes a rag.

This time last year very few would here of defeat in the Supreme Hurdle for

Dunguib

"Best I’ve ever seen" "Unbeatable" "The new Arkle" accolades pouring in by the hundreds.

So "What if" Philip Fenton got it a bit wrong? All the signs are there he may have.

Dunguib’s season started very early winning at Galway in October, hacked up at Punchestown and Fairyhouse in November and December followed by another easy win at Leapordstown in early February.

Dealing with an unbeatable horse in the limelight can put a lot of pressure on a trainer. Everyone expects him to keep winning, especially the owner and the tendancy is to have them just that bit fitter than they have to be. This subject was just brought up concerning Binocular, not being 100% at the moment,in another thread, where it was claimed Nicky Henderson only has one race in mind for him.

In Dunguib’s four races prior to Cheltenham he won so easily and looked so well in himself I doubt if he was anything less than 99-100 fit in each of his races.

In his final race before Cheltenham he won with a ton and half in hand against Fionagass who’s a very decent animal but looked like a selling plater giving a stone to a Grade 1 horse, such was Dunguib’s superiority over him. Dunguib certainly looked 100% fit that day and that’s not where you want to be a few weeks before Cheltenham. The bookies new the value of that win though and cut him to 4/5 fav.

"What if" Dunguib was over the top at Cheltenham? It takes very little to put a fit horse over the top by being a bit over zealous and remeber this was in many peoples eyes the banker of the meeting. The pressure was immense and keeping in mind when you get to the top of a mountain the only place to go is down Philip Fentom may have just done a bit too much with him.

His next run at Puchestown was so bad there is every indication he could well have. The way he ran up the hill in the Supreme was flat and ugly to say the least, just no spark and no fight in the horse but he’s so classy he still finished less than 2 lengths behind the current Champion Hurdle favourite.

The fact we haven’t seen hide nor hair of him this season and nothing is planned until Mid January is another indication that Philip Fenton thinks he did a bit too much with him last season.

Philip Fenton mentioned the BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on January 23 as apossile race for Dunguib but added it may be a bit ambitious for a first run. Again a hint that he has no intentions of rushing Dunguib into peak fitness this time round.

I think it would be foolish to discard Dunguib and at 20/1 he’s got to be worth an ew interest. If he jumps well the way he travels he’ll still be there when many many of these are crying help.

Should one or more of the top 4 run below form or turns out not to be as good as we think then Dunquib and the way he tanks through his races with easy looks certain to be booked for a place and could conceivably turn them all over.

Dunguib ew @ 20/1

[Anonymous]

Last year when Imperial Commander won the Gold Cup the commentator said it’s time for a new order but many still believe Kauto Star mistake free would beat IC with ease.

I doubt if we’ve seen the last of Kauto Star quite yet but Deman IMO has seen better days. He was congratulated for a fine effort in the Hennessy when finishing 3rd but sentiment ruled the day..

Realsitically he’s finished a length in front of Niche Market who I doubt would blow wind up What A Friend’s backside. I reckon it’s clear sign he’s gone bacwards and quite abit at that.

PN has said he won’t run again until the Gold Cup. That looks like a last gasp effort to rekindle the horse but it must be very doubtful it will help.

He’s had a hard old life for such a big horse and I doubt if he’ll reach the frame this time round.

Enter the new order partII

Pandorama needs it to come up soft at Cheltenham? I doubt if he does to be involved in the finish. It may actually bring out some improvment in his jumping. He made a right hash at the one before the straight in the Luxus and lost a lot of ground and momentum or would have probably won by 4 or 5 lengths further.

Coral’s go 10/1 for the gold cup which is about all I would be prepared to go if I was a bookie. He could be the one horse to give the big two most to thing about and concievably improve enough to win.

While I wouldn’t back him at 10/1…I have taken the 16/1 (still available in places) as the 4/1 to be placed alone makes it worthwhile.

Unlike Ireland representaive last year this is a consistant improving horse who is all but unbeaten over fences. Losing only to Mikael D’haguenet when coming back from a 12 month break and being knocked out of the Hennessy due to another horse’s error.

[carvillshill]

Reasons

not

to back Mikael d’Haganuet ante post.
1. How do you know he’ll run in the RSA? With the new intermediate distance novice chase he now has three options, and I doubt even WP Mullins knows which race he’ll run in yet. The sad thing about the expanded Festival is that horses can duck each other too easily- it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he and TFR avoided each other, perhaps with Mikael going for the in-between race.
2. This is a horse who’s been off a long time- backing horses like him and Hurricane Fly ante post is a dangerous game- they are less likely than most to make it to Prestbury Park fit and well.
In short, if I were a bookie I’d be very happy to lay your 8/1, win or lose.

3.He’s just had a bad fall, and I wasn’t 100% convinced by his fencing technique- he didn’t give them much air and soemtimes a horse that jumps like that can become a bit careful after a fall- I’d want to see a nice safe clear round next time out.

They say that those who fail to learn their history are doomed to keep repeating the same mistakes….

[Anonymous]

Perhaps but there could be more to his defeat than meets the eye. While he never jumped gtreat it was hadrrly the reason for that lacklustre performance.

That’s one of only a few horse of Willie Mullins’s to run an stinker this week. Someone reckoned after the race that there were three top class horses in the race Zaidpour lost..That’s about as mad as it gets the horse ran a stone below his best as did Micky D.

Don’t need to look too hard to find 2 or 3 others who have been beaten when expected.

Could be ther’es something a miss with a few of his horses so I’ll reserve judgment.

BTW Carv you are a bit fickle. When I wrote off Cousin Vinny a couple of seasons ago stating there was no way he was a Cheltenham horse you gave me hell for it and here you are with the shoe on the other foot.

I’ll stick by Micky D for the meantime and let’s see what happenes

[Anonymous]

Seems like we might be up for a replay in the Irish Arkle it will be interesting to see how things turn out for Micky D if he turns up. This time I will be backing him seriously even if Carv tries to put me off again

Had an interesting conversation on Sunday and was told in no uncertain manner that Binocular will win with his head in his chest at Kempton then go straight to Cheltenham. The next thing I know Frank Berry is saying he might run at Sandown on his way to the Champion Hurdle …..well pigs might fly but I trust people more than I trust newspapers so I am topping up on Binocular daily to follow up on my last two nap bets Pandorama, and Bob’s Worth.

To top it off I am hoping to get a 2/1 4/7 double up with Hurricane Fly (ICH) as well as a treble with Kauto Star and fill the pockets for Cheltehnam.

Note; Can’t believe the amount of sheep you run into in racing. I have read several posts saying Pandorma would have won the Hennessy had he stood up. The yard apparently thought he would despite the fact the ground was just on the soft side of good.

Almost to a man they are now saying he needs heavy ground to have a chance in the Gold Cup The fact by coincidence his planned races were on ground that was the way it was and he most likely would have won them on good to soft or yielding.

He acted perfectly well when encountering yielding ground and he’ll get at least that with watering guaranteed at Cheltenham.

Mark my words this is a horse they all have to fear at Cheltenham a race which very often goes to a horse with staying power and class. He has both. Luckily there’s plenty of racing before the Gold Cup at Cheltenham so Noel Meade will be given every chance to check the ground out and hopefully it will have enough cut in it to run. No doubt the Clerk of the Course will as usual claim it’s good if it’s hock deep so I expect he’ll leave him in until the last minute before deciding unless it’s clearly fast ground.

After a bit of scouting around I managed to get some 20/1 ew yesterday and will keep at him until he runs again. Another impressive win and he”l be a cut another few points and be no more then 8 or 10/1 if he turns up.

Bit of a gamble on the weather but hopefully will pay dividends.

[carvillshill]

BTW Carv you are a bit fickle. When I wrote off Cousin Vinny a couple of seasons ago stating there was no way he was a Cheltenham horse you gave me hell for it and here you are with the shoe on the other foot.

I’ll stick by Micky D for the meantime and let’s see what happenes

Your memory must be playing tricks Fister, Cousin Vinny was my Bismarck that year and I put up Go Native at 14/1.

[Anonymous]

Couldn’t have been you right enough because the guy could spell….there’s no C in Bismark so I’ll forgive you this time

Here’s something interesting.

Currently 2nd fav for the Fred Winter is Alan Kings talking horse Franklino. He’s been well backed in both his runs to date,is entered up at Doncaster this week and if he runs will no doubt attract support again.

Another entry is David Pipe’s American bred French import Kazzene. He’s apparently been causing quite a buzz, is being aimed at the Triumph Hurdle and did win a decent race in the mud in France so he could be anything.

Another horse that was doing the rounds as being a bit special before he ran at Wetherby was Local Hero trained in that funny part of the country Lincoln where they are most famous for selling cloth to outlaws from Sherwood Forest than they are for training festival or Group winners, although James givens is doing well.

However Local hero’s trainer Steve Gollins knows a good horse when he sees one. He trained a real good horse in Royal Shakespeare who after trouncing Mobasher sent him to Aintree to take on Mssrs O’Neill, Henderson and Pipe. I remeber the race well as Jonjo had the fav and he ran like a cow LOL He then sent him to Ireland to take on Brave Inca and was just pipped in a real ding dong battle. Unfortunately it turned out to be a bridge too far for RS as he was never quite the same again.

The point is Steve Gollins is as good a trainer as there is and this fellow could be the one to put him right up there with the big boys.

Of course it’s very hard to judge how good the horse is but Tony MCcoy who rode him at Wetherby was so impressed by the horses engine he tried to buy it for JP MCManus.

I read his form somewhere and it said he had jumped fluently when he won at Wetherby but that’s nonsense. He jumped ok but AP had to keep him right more than once but no doubt he’ll improve in that department. No worries with the engine though he’s got gears and look a definite horse for the future.

With that in mind I’ve already backed him for both the Triumph Hurdle 33/1 and the Fred Winter 16/1 and I also managed to get a few quid on the machine but the 60+ prices were no doubt snatched up by the lads in the yard.

He hasn’t been seen out since November but if he’s as good as SG and AP seem to think he is we could see him challenging for favouritism for the Triumph after Donnie.

Really hope so as the trainer deserves a chance to show the big boys he too can train them if he has them.

With AP on board what sort of price he’ll be depends on what else takes him on but if the Kings and Pipes turn up he could start at odds against. Gawd help the bookies if he does .

[Anonymous]

What looked like being a big field has been reduced to a handful of runners. Bit of a sickener really but if he’s half as good as they think he is who can blame them.

Hopefully he’ll hack up and there will be better opportunities to back him before the festival.

Would still recommend backing him for the Festival though as the bookies are bound to cut him if he wins this as easily as he should.

[bainsey2k10]

Hi Fist

Must say I enjoy reading your posts and am as eager for the big week to start as you are!

I share your views on Micky D – I have had a bit on him for RSA and will be getting more now I have seen 16s at Paddy Power which is a ridiculous price. I think he was undercooked for his 2nd run as was Zaidpour and race came too quick for both of them

Out of interest Fist – I have 2 other ante post interests

1. Empire Levant – have you heard anything of this Nicholls juvenile and will it line up in the Triumph as beaten first time up?

2. Surfing – Henderson horse from France like Long Run and will prob run in the Arkle

[Anonymous]

I know Fergie has a leg in PN’s because he ran against one of Nicky’s Hendersons and was said to be the main danger. Turned out they were both beaten.

I can see why you are interested in him as he was given an easy time of it when he clouted the 3rd last and looks sure to be winning races.

However Titan De Sarti was said to be one of, if not thee best young horse in Nicky’s yard and was even being compared to Binocular.

When I watched the race how he even finished second is beyond me. He missed out hurdles, was running as green as acabbage all the way round, Barry Geharty had to niggle at him time aftertime to get him to pick up………then all of a sudden he picked up and was cruising and then dropped the bit again and was running all over the shop.

He’s a big baby but the engine is there and Nicky will sort him out for sure. He’s traded at prices from 10 out to 65 on Betfair so he has been a bit of a talking horse. I’ll be having a bit of the 40/1 with Hills the minute he’s entered to run, It might be at Cheltenham for the same race as AP has told Steve gollings to Local Hero for and it wouldn’t a surprise me if Empire Levant turned instead of Sam Winner.

Gets more complicated by the minute but that could be the race that sorts out the betting because right now it’s a mess a no one has a clue which group of 4yo’sare the best.

It wouldn’t be the lack of fitness that caused Surfing to go off at a big price at Newbury. He’s got a bit of experince behind him and is what he is. Nicky sent him to Newbury to test the water getting 6lbs from PN’s but he simply wasn’t good enough and had Captain Chris jumped and chased Gizao along a bit harder he may well have ben beaten even further.. Like all horses he should improve but whether he’ll be thought good enough to run in the Arkle is another matter. Mind you NH isd a law unto himslef andd he’s pulled off more than a few shocks in his time so who knows. Doesn’t look an outstanding year and personally I fancy PN’s or Medermit will win it.

Seems like we are on oppositie sides of the coin on both horses but it’s a great game for making fools of us all.

[bainsey2k10]

So what are your views on Mikael D’Haguenet for the RSA not Fist?

I think the 16s with Paddy is a huge price, any thoughts?

[Anonymous]

Taking it that is where he is heading then 16/1 does appear generous but Willie Mullins said he was going to enter him in several races incluing the Gold Cup.

For some reason he hasn’t entered him which is a bit worrying considering Kauto Star doesn’t run until Saturday and anything could happen.

I certaintly wouldn’t be put off by his latest run it’s the first time he’s run abad race in his life and unlikely to be repeated unless something is amiss.

Taking it there’s nothing wrong I was sure he’d head for the RSA as it is usually the less competitive between the two big races but this Time For Rupert looks a Gold Cup horse in the making and the Arkle looks moderate in comparison this year.

No flies in WM he can go either route and will probably take the easiest option between the two when the time comes but with only 7 weeks to go his next race distance might be the best guide to what he has in mind for the horse….one things for sure he won’t tell us

I’ve already backed him just hope Ruby is right and he’s every bit as good as he says.

[Anonymous]

Nicky Henderson runs yet another ex French horse tomorrow in Spirit Son forecast at 10/11 fav on the SL website. I hope there right because he’ll need to be a bit special to beat Jonjo’s Palace Jester in at 3/1. I backed this fellow a few weeks back planning to have right bet on him but Alan King sent one for the race that was being hammered on Betfair and to be honest my bottle went.

Spirit Son has probably got better form but Palace Jester showed marked improvement on his last run and he has the scope to improve even further.

Jonjo could have avoided Nicky Henderson horse and gone to Wetherby on Saturday so you can imagine he’s pretty confident about his ability to win this. Owned by Tevor Hemmings it’s doubtful he’ll run unbacked and I doubt if he’ll be 3/1 either as the bookies aren’t stupid as the people who make up SL prices. Anything better than 6/4 and I would grab it as he should really be favourite for this IMO.

Hate backing against Nicky Henderson but pretty confident Jonjo has this one in the bag.

[Anonymous]

I haven’t stopped backing him all day 11/8 seems fair is which clearly is a 2 horse race. Nickys may well do me but I sincerely doubt it.

[Anonymous]

After puting my shirt on Palace Jester I headed to Tonglor a upper class yuppy area of Bangkok to have lunch with an Aussie pal. an ardent fan of UK racing, who told me "your on the wrong one". So what do I do? Bet him mines would finish in front of his. He of course chose Spirit Son so I lost even more money

We end up drinking 8 Belgian beers apiece which come in these oversized wine goblets at a hugely over the top price…6 quid a pop loser pays. So it’s off to the ATM later to transfer his winnings so a real bad selection on my part.

Few hours and a few beers later I get home and first thing I see is the result Never even saw the race.

My pal called me to rub salt in the wound? "We just saw the winner of the Supreme Hurdle" says he.

Having watched the race I reckon he could be right.

He is definitely the type of horse Nicky would run in a Cheltenham race. Which one is the big question??

AP looked to have plenty horse under him and he’s far from slow but this horse burst him within strides of Barry Geharty saying go and could have put another 6 lengths between him and the running on second had he riddden the horse out. I can just imagine him in typical Nicky Henderson style hitting the front at the top of the hill and scooting clear.

20/1 for the Supreme is tempting but while the bookies aren’t quoting him for the Neptune there’s been alot of interest on the exchange 16/1. That interest might come to nothing if another French Import of Nicky’s Chablais were to win today. I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many good young horses in the yard and the best one Titan De Sarti seems to have disppeared off the radar.

Another horse I mentioned the other day that didn’t want to take on Local hero was David’s Pipe’s Kazzene. I see he has booked AP to ride which would suggest they are going for gold today.

Whether this will prove an easier race or not remains to be seen but PN’s Brampour was said to be a superior animal to him on the flat having just been pipped in a listed race…….1m7f though which might indicate he needs a bit further than 2miles round Kempton over hurdles.

Brampour’s class could see him hack up but Nicky’s A Media Luz was thought good enough to run in the French Oaks and she obviously hasn’t been pushed along at amillion miles per hour to win a race.

She was a market drifter when running very free and blowing up behind Sam Winner and then given an impossible task behind stable mate Granduer but ran a craker. Forms had a bit of a boost with Kim Bailly’s winning that bad race at Catterick very easily but any of these would have probably have done the same.

Never easy working these races out but Nicky seems to be winning just about everything so I’m having a bet on his.

[Anonymous]

Huge day for Kauto Star today.

To think he can make history yet again by winning a 5th King George is an awesome thought.

There’s been a lot more interest on here about what will finish second or beat him than there has about just what he is about to attempt.

So many things can go wrong and usually do but this is Kauto’s happy hunting ground and I really hope he can pull it off.

It would seem he’s as good as ever according to connections but you never know for sure until they run in a race like this.

Some say he could still win this if he has gone backwards but I don’t believe that for one minute. When you have gone in this game you’ve gone and you don’t win King George’s if your not 100% right.

I’ve yet to see a serious sign on the racetrack that would suggest he isn’t as good as ever and hopefully he’ll win this just as easy as he has one the other 4.

Much faster types in the race this year but I can’t remeber any 2mile or even 21/2 mile horse winning a King George so it might end up his easiest win in the race yet esecially if Long Run doesn’t get his jumping together.

I get the impression Nicky Henderson doesn’t fancy the horse one bit and he’s more hopefull that Riverside Theatre will be placed.

We’ll see today but personally despite having my usual large bet on Kauto for this months ago I just want to see him hack up and make history.

Nicky’s assistant stepped up and told the world that Binocular wont be 100% until March so the bookies now make him a massive 9/4.

I say massive because it doen’t compute. Last year he ran a stinker in the Fighting Fifth. Last year the race IMO was abetter race than this year. Starluck was a runner but so was Go Native who I think would have walked all over Khyber King round this track.

Khyber King runs well when fresh there’s no disputing that but I don’t think this is his type of race nor his type of course despite having won at Aintree. The Aintree race fell apart when Clestial Halo fell and left Petite Robin his nearest challenger and he took a fair bit of time too pull alway from him.

I just can’t see Khyber Kim having the toe to win this and the only way he can win IMO is if the others flater and he doesn’t come off the bridle.

Starluck Beat Binocular home last year but Binocular’s run behind Peddlar’s Cross would indicate he’s in much better nick this year than last. In last years race it was run at steady pace wich also would suit Starluck much more than it would Binocular. This year with overtirn in it aint going to be steady by any stretch of the imagination.

I expect Binocular to be taking this up between the 3rd last and second last and winning easily..Be shocked if he doesn’t no matter what the papers are saying…..He’s in a differnt league to these and if he can’t beat these second raters a bit short of peak fitness he won’t be winning any Champion Hurdle this season.

Ver condifdent he’lll win and be back as Champion Hurdle favourite before the end of the day.

Great days racingand Hopefully the two champions will come out on top

[Author]

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