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Just back from Ayr and delighted to read EC’s comments as I instinctively took 25/1 Killybegs after the race, more as a trading decision than because I thought he’d win the Guineas- who knows how many of the front ones in the market will actually show up? I still think I may trade out a few days before, but EC may persuade me to keep a decent profit!
How much of a god thing would Fondmort have been at Cheltenham tomorow if he’d given Aintree a swerve?
I was just thinking about the against the crowd approach on the way to the airport with my mob on Sunday- All everyone could talk about was BJK, and I said to someone that my instinct would be to be against him or have no bet from now on, as the hype around him is unreal- he won’t represent value in his next few runs, if ever, talented though he is. If they are going chasing they should do it next season, as he will be getting a little old the year after. it wouldn’t surprise me to see him over fences next year.
I fancy Turko for the 4yo hurdle on Thursday. I don’t see this track suiting Detroit City.
Thankfully connections have seen the light (or more likely NH has talked the owner out of it) and the horse runs in either the Betfair or the Melling chase, followed possibly by a run back at headquarters in April.
Surely this reliable, genuine horse suited by 2m5f around Cheltenham doesn’t deserve to be flogged around 4 1/2 miles at Aintree again, where he palpably failed to stay last year- I’m guessing this must be an owner-led initiative as I can’t believe NH wants to put him at risk like this. There are several good races for him before season’s end including a G2 limited handicap over his favourite trip at Cheltenham’s April meeting- why not keep him for that?
Depends on the firm. Surrey Racing closed me down some years ago because 3 ante-post bets won at Cheltenham. Boyles in Ireland just keep reducing what you are allowed to have on until is gets silly- I can have 25 quid now! That way they can claim that they don’t close winning accounts.Bruce closed me once I won over a six month period. I personally find the bigger UK firms fine, maybe because I’m not hurting them much!<br>I think the advent of Betfair and the huge increase in the amount of money sloshing around has made the big firms slightly braver than before.<br>
Utopia just won in the same owners colours in Dubai, good pointer to Kane Hekili, who he also owns.
I think you are a little brave ruling out Cesare who is housed one stall away from your best-performing quintile. Your analysis has value, but to say he can’t win because he is one stall "wrong" is a bit daft, IMHO.
This approach( high turnover, multiple bets per race) has worked very well for me at the big festivals.<br>My argument would be that after I’ve spent 100 hours or so working out the races at Cheltenham it would be a poor show if I couldn’t find at least one horse under or overpriced in nearly every race. The only races I didn’t play in this year were the Champion Hurdle and the Fred Winter. In most of the rest I was backing 2-4 horses and possibly laying one. With the choice now between early and live prices, betting exchanges and Tote pools, if you have a real or instinctive tissue in your head(mine is the latter) the bets seem to happen automatically and the scoreboard ticks over nicely.
I hear the soil particle size is down on previous years- that obviously rules out stalls 12 and 13.
How many of those races had a field of nearly 30, where the runners were evenly spread across the course? Be careful in extrapolating results of smaller fields (even 20 runners average) to full fields like Saturday’s.
(Edited by carvillshill at 7:59 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)
DJ agreeing with me…. there really must be something in the water! I put it down to post-Chelenham fatigue!
Suggest you buy the Racing and Football Outlook and read Graham Wheldon, the draw king, in there. Last time I looked there was nothing in it at Redcar at a mile, except that it will always be a slight advantage to be near a rail.
I am no pro, but I have been profitable every year for some time, except for a major blip last year, when I was a narrow loser. Post Cheltenham and after getting the jackpot the other day, I am in a position to say that I am certain to win this year, so I shouldn’t have to keep my promise to ‘er indoors to quit if I have 2 losing years.<br>I fully agree with the previous points regarding a separate bank account and recording of bets: these to me are a given, and I refuse to believe anyone who says they are profitable if they do not keep accounts.<br>The separate account with a decent float (at least 100 times your average stake) takes the pressure off during a bad run, and assures you don’t understake when you see value during a sticky patch.<br>I feel it is important to specialise, and I find it hard to fathom tipsters who give you horses, dogs, tennis players and golfers to back between football bets. My occasional forays into other sports are usually unsuccessful and are becoming rarer- try to get to know a lot about a finite group of horses, rather than attempting to keep up with everything.<br>Watch as much racing as possible, both in the flesh and on TV- you will see things about horse’s attitudes and quirks the formbook can never teach you (Racing Demon!) <br>Develop systems and routines that you follow, improving them year to year.<br>Don’t be a slave to any one method, be it speed figures or trends, but try and pick the best from multiple sources.<br>Be humble, and always willing to learn from others- the arrogant man is always a losing punter.<br>Do not underestimate the huge difference between doing this for fun for yourself and doing it for a living or to give tips to other people for reward- that’s pressure.<br>Read as much as you can on the subject- if you haven’t read all of Alan’s books and Nick Mordin’s for a start, as well as Andy Beyer, then do so. <br>Be a sceptic- don’t believe the pundits or the hype, make your own mind up based on what you’ve seen.<br>Don’t underestimate the time it takes to gain an edge- if you are not prepared to work very very hard then forget it- there are no short cuts to winning at this game.<br>Lastly, buy something nice for yourself or your missus when you have a good win- otherwise you won’t remember it as fondly- I have a More Rainbows suit and am soon to have a Newmill Cheltenham picture!<br>Good Luck!
(Edited by carvillshill at 5:39 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)
