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Never knew ex-Arsenal payer Graham Rix was a professional punter!
It’s his new job, he started yesterday.
<br>Carvills,
Then again, that Henry Rix was a wizard on the left wing when he wasn’t tipping winners!
I’d support what Steve says about using the same skills in other fields and it’s probably significant that many of the full time punters I’ve met in the last fifteen years have had a background in IT, accountancy etc, or have run their own business.
AP<br>
What gets on my wick most is when a horse is long odds-on and idiots on the racing media suggest that "only the professionals will be getting involved at that price" Anyone backing horses at long odds-on will have to find another way of feeding the family fairly soon, I respectfully suggest…. my eyes light up when I see a short fav to see if I can get it beat, there’s where the money is….<br>
(Edited by carvillshill at 1:21 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)
[/Never knew ex-Arsenal payer Graham Rix was a professional punter!
It’s his new job, he started yesterday]
damm…sorry got mixed up. And the only thing i know Graham rix gets on is the sex offenders registry.
<br>The point you make about accountants and IT people might be true but like me, I hope that was there profession before they decided to wander into punting….and probabaly isnt the other way around.
SHL
Flat Season Lover
Whatever road you go down, two rules are unbreakable.
1. Keep a seperate bank account for gambling.
2. Record every bet, and I mean every bet.
Do this and you’ll soon know whether capable of making a living from punting.
Best of luck,
Mike
Think of it this way…
To make say £3k a month to cover expenses and your own lifestyle, you would need to punt £30k if you were making a regular 10% margin
Perhaps some operate to a higher margin than that but i recall Alex Bird saying he survived on something like 4/5 %<br>
Mordin gave some advice which is worth considering if you want to be a pro:
"Pick a race each day where you believe the favourite will lose and choose a horse to back against it.
After 30 days, if you’re showing a solid profit, you have the ability to be a pro." ÂÂÂ
I’d add to this the caveat "subject to having the right temperament".
I’m going to say something about betting on horses that’s quite controversial, but I believe it to be true.
The exchanges have made a big difference to betting and, although the market is probably more efficient, with the low takeouts today (and removal of betting tax), I reckon it must be a lot easier to make a profit betting on racing than it was 10 years ago.
In fact, I believe that the punter now has the advantage over the market and should expect to make a profit.
If there are an average of 20 races a day, with an average of 10 horses per race, that’s 200 horses priced up each day.
That’s 200 prices that are offered to the punter to back, lay or ignore.
(and, as these prices change over time, it’s really a lot more than 200)
The ability to be selective and only choose to get involved with the prices that are most obviously wrong must be worth more than the 5% taken out by betfair.
So, a punter of average ability who has the discipline to only say "bet" when the price is right should be able to make a profit.
That’s not the same as making a living, which is a level above, but it’s very satisfying to know that, over a year, you’ve made a profit on your betting.
And that’s something I believe the average punter can realistically aim for and expect.
Steve
(Edited by stevedvg at 2:53 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)
To clarify what I wrote earlier, here’s a link to something I learned when I worked in Investment that is very useful when thinking about betting markets:
Steve…very true about the exchanges..
But Mordins "race a day". Why? There are many days when i barely recognise a runner let alone be confident about the form. Shackling myself to that would be stupid
Tanks for all the responses to the thread, I can see everyone has got a different opinion on how to go about it. Is there two or three rules that hold true for everyone, eg not backing odds on shots? If anyone had anything I might find useful and would like to PM me that would also be appreciated.
Steve –
Theoretically correct in what you say about the 200-ish horses a day but the difficulty is that i don’t believe anyone can analyse 200 horses prices per day effectively.
I think you need certain rules of thumb to assist in targetting those race types likeliest to yield bets which the market has priced wrongly.
The market would appear to be more efficient but I’m not sure if that’s true. Are horses priced more accurately these days? Anyone got any stats on that?
I am no pro, but I have been profitable every year for some time, except for a major blip last year, when I was a narrow loser. Post Cheltenham and after getting the jackpot the other day, I am in a position to say that I am certain to win this year, so I shouldn’t have to keep my promise to ‘er indoors to quit if I have 2 losing years.<br>I fully agree with the previous points regarding a separate bank account and recording of bets: these to me are a given, and I refuse to believe anyone who says they are profitable if they do not keep accounts.<br>The separate account with a decent float (at least 100 times your average stake) takes the pressure off during a bad run, and assures you don’t understake when you see value during a sticky patch.<br>I feel it is important to specialise, and I find it hard to fathom tipsters who give you horses, dogs, tennis players and golfers to back between football bets. My occasional forays into other sports are usually unsuccessful and are becoming rarer- try to get to know a lot about a finite group of horses, rather than attempting to keep up with everything.<br>Watch as much racing as possible, both in the flesh and on TV- you will see things about horse’s attitudes and quirks the formbook can never teach you (Racing Demon!) <br>Develop systems and routines that you follow, improving them year to year.<br>Don’t be a slave to any one method, be it speed figures or trends, but try and pick the best from multiple sources.<br>Be humble, and always willing to learn from others- the arrogant man is always a losing punter.<br>Do not underestimate the huge difference between doing this for fun for yourself and doing it for a living or to give tips to other people for reward- that’s pressure.<br>Read as much as you can on the subject- if you haven’t read all of Alan’s books and Nick Mordin’s for a start, as well as Andy Beyer, then do so. <br>Be a sceptic- don’t believe the pundits or the hype, make your own mind up based on what you’ve seen.<br>Don’t underestimate the time it takes to gain an edge- if you are not prepared to work very very hard then forget it- there are no short cuts to winning at this game.<br>Lastly, buy something nice for yourself or your missus when you have a good win- otherwise you won’t remember it as fondly- I have a More Rainbows suit and am soon to have a Newmill Cheltenham picture!<br>Good Luck!
(Edited by carvillshill at 5:39 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)
i don’t believe anyone can analyse 200 horses prices per day effectively.
I would tend to agree, it was certainly true for me.
Nowadays, because I don’t put in much time for racing, I almost never bet on anything below G2. This gives me a small number of horses to keep track of and they usually run at the weekends.
But even if you specialise and find that you simply ignore 150 of the daily offers, that still leaves you 50 prices to pick from.
And, remember, you can always say "no" to all 50 and have a bet free day. There’ll be another 200 offers along tomorrow.
But Mordins "race a day". Why?
Probably to prove you can find regular profitable bets and to focus the mind on a specific target.
This is just for 30 days. It wasn’t something he suggested people should rigidly stick to forever.
Steve
Clivex
It must be something in the water but I would agree with you about Carvillshill’s post. Best thing I ever did was to set up a betting bank account totally seperate to my everyday money. I don’t track my individual bets but must be winning as my account continues to rise, albeit steadily over the last 3 years.
I’m fortunate enough to be in a position whereas I’m paid to watch plenty of racing and it certainly gives you an advantage, providing you can read a race properly, a skill which improves like most things, the more you try it.
<br>I wont sit here and type and pretend I’m any sort of pro because I’m not. I don’t have the bank behind me and don’t fancy the stress that would go with punting for a living.
stevedg,
I think you are being optimistic in saying that the ‘average’ punter can realistically expect to make a profit betting on horses or anything else. The cold reality is that very few will succeed in the long run. The figures, which are repeated year in, year out, show conclusively that the’average’ punter loses about 10 per cent of stakes.
A few disciplined individuals are able through hard work to turn this disadvantage around and make a long term profit of up to ten per cent. To make this worthwhile the stakes have to be very high as clivex has observed.
carvillshill’s post is just about spot on for anyone aspiring to make it pay. I now have a method which doesn’t require me to watch a lot of racing, but if I think that if I were a pro, I would watch as much as I could.
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