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Viewing 15 posts - 106 through 120 (of 137 total)
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  • #153941
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3099

    Dice Man,

    Neat mathematical argument that stumbles up against reality – where are you going to find a bookmaker stupid enough to accept an each way bet in an 8 runner novice hurdle where they bet 33/1 bar three?

    AP

    #153942
    The Dice Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 85

    Dice Man,

    Neat mathematical argument that stumbles up against reality – where are you going to find a bookmaker stupid enough to accept an each way bet in an 8 runner novice hurdle where they bet 33/1 bar three?

    AP

    1/2 mile down the road from where I live!

    also that example was more to illustrate a point, which was that confining one’s bets to win singles means ruling out potentially profitable opportunities. Betting e/w is an option, and neglecting to ever look at it is a mistake imo.

    #153950
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    What are your "rules" that determine whether you will bet on a race. Do you always do singles, how many races do you bet on, do you do antepost bets. I’m clearly nowhere near this level yet but i’m interested to see how people do it as several rules seem to be prevailent in all lists. Thanks to anyone willing to answer.<br>

    (Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 11:37 pm on Mar. 22, 2006)

    I thinks the rulkes have changed since Betfair came along.

    I’m not a pro and would never want to be but lets just say I have a few quid on now and then.

    First rule is study 6 days a week and bet the equivelant of one day a week………the odds against the every day punter no matter what sytem he uses are massive…….I on average would bet 1 to 6 horses in a month.
    Finding the right ones is never easy but always worth the wait I find. More fun when they win and less risky.

    Use form books less and learn to use your eyes and most importantly how to read a race…..e.g look out for horses you can eliminate from a race…….a classic example was the QMCC…..T/bleu’s form stank to the high heavens..go and look at his previous races and his price and whatb he beat before beating Twist Magic who didn’t stay…and Twist Magic doesn’t get two miles on a stiff track…..betting was a four horse race in reality it was a two horse race……ended up a 1 horse race :lol:

    If you can latch on to something like that you can get real value and the odds are more in your favour………all down to being patient…..you want tobet in races like the Lincoln even EW…pack it in now or you will end up flat broke.

    If you really fancy a class horse to win a big race look at his future entries scan newspapers internet site and if you are sure he is going to run in say the Guineas but you are betting him to win a race a month before hand…….bet him in both..if it wins as you expected you will probably be on at twice to four times the odds he startsat…….you then have the choice of laying the horse nearer the time and either way you can’t lose.

    Some say you should bet over the jumps and not on the flat….with Betfair around you can now do that……….going by your name I guess that wouldn’t appeal though :)

    #153983
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    Ginge, YOU ARE THAT CERTAIN TYPE OF PERSON!!!!!

    COME ON DOWN!

    You don’t enjoy "gambling" but you still do it.

    So it’s a bit like doing a job just because the money is good?!

    Colin

    I think ‘Gambling’ is somewhat different from betting. For me, gambling is playing the National Lottery or Roulette and betting is where you make an informed choice and take a calculated risk when you think the odds are in your favour and do not rely on random chance factors. I also, like Gingertipster, do not like gambling. I love to bet though.

    #153993
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    David Brady
    The majority of the time in 8 runner races where the second fav just gets placed the winnings will be very low.

    However there are actually winnings to come.

    As the old saying goes ‘Its not about what you win but what you do not lose!

    Basically the ew doubles (8 runner races) are bets that no bookmaker will ever promote. The reason is that overall they can never win from them over a decent period of time.

    So not really clever to concentrate on types of races bookmakers know can only do them damage overall.

    #153999
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Seagull, I was watching the first at Kempton and thinking of your post.

    The first and second favourites were very close in the betting there must have been doubt about which would actually start favourite. In this instance should the race be left alone?

    Colin

    #154013
    GeorgeJ
    Participant
    • Total Posts 160

    For many years an increasing proportion of the UK workforce has been employed in the public sector where, mostly, revenue is guaranteed. Those so employed don’t have the same first hand experience of entrepreneurship that those who are self-employed, or run small shops or commercial firms, acquire on a day by day basis.

    I see betting professionally as entrepreneurship akin to all other forms of self-employment and running small scale enterprises dependent for income on meeting market requirements: there is no guaranteed revenue from the taxpayers’ pockets, and income is dependent on performance. None of these enterprises is without risk, but none is, in any useful sense of the word, a matter of gambling. All are attempts to apply capital and capability to good effect.

    As is clear from earlier posts, those who bet professionally do so in a variety of ways, but a common feature seems to be that the endeavour is treated as work – as with any other trade, profession or job one has to put in the hours. So the real issue, it seems to me, is whether the work involved engages the individual and, in his or her personal circumstances, is how they prefer to spend their time.

    And of course the work involved in betting professionally is as varied as the strategies that are employed. For me, the actual betting is, in a use of time sense, utterly peripheral – though I can see that for an exchange trader, for example, it would be central. The core work is maintaining my databases and analysing races. I neither love gambling (if I did I think it would be very destructive) nor betting (for me a straightforward mechanical process that takes a minute or two a couple of times a week). I enjoy the core work, especially the race analysis part as the database maintenance is undemanding routine (which is not to say that is can be done carelessly), and regard the returns as appropriate for that work.

    Presuming he or she had already found an approach to betting which had proved robust enough to give good grounds for thinking it a realistic basis for making a living, my advice to anyone considering betting professionally is to think first and foremost about what, for them, that is going to mean on a day to day basis. And are they going to be happy doing that, compared with the other options open to them?

    #154018
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Excellent post, George.

    Colin

    #154026
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Agreed excellent post.

    I’ve just come to the end of my third year full-time. The main attractions for me are:

    a) as George says, it’s a more fulfilling way of spending my time than the years I spent stuck in soulless hotel rooms; the years I wasted stood at flipcharts talking corporate lingo bingo I’d long since stopped taking seriously; the death of a thousand meetings; the eternal commmuting; the sense of not belonging and of being caught up in a wheel of life you never asked for nor believed in, (and other Reggie Perrin woes!)

    b) I find it incredibly difficult, and hence challenging. Every other job I’ve had I’ve either been 100% useless at, or found drearily easy.

    c) The feedback is instant and in black and white. I used to earn far more but never felt I’d really earned it. It was just a payslip.

    I wouldn’t have thought it would suit very many people though. Misanthropes and geeks mainly.

    #154029
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    FSL,

    If the opportunity arises, I would exercise my passion for racing in the punting scene as well.

    Discipline will always be the key. Concentrate all your effort and punting expertise into two or three major bets for the day and the loss will not be such a deadly impact over a long period.

    Although I will not help myself but play with $100 on the exotics :wink:

    Ante-post is great for those longshot horses where you have the advantage against the bookie – reasons being inside information, or just top performances that were not on the premier stage as an outlook into the future.

    #154030
    quadrilla
    Member
    • Total Posts 468

    GeorgeJ wrote :

    "The core work is maintaining my databases….. "

    Keeping you databases updated should only take seconds per day.

    Export ( two days ago – as Raceform are still finalising the results !!!! )results and today’s declarations from, say Raceform ( no SP available yet ). Costs a few pounds per day but saves you years of data crunching – leaving you more time to analysis.

    #154069
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26562

    Ginge, YOU ARE THAT CERTAIN TYPE OF PERSON!!!!!

    COME ON DOWN!

    You don’t enjoy "gambling" but you still do it.

    So it’s a bit like doing a job just because the money is good?!

    Colin

    Colin,

    I NEVER GAMBLE!!!

    I INVEST INSTEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Only if THE PRICE IS RIGHT!!!!!! :lol:

    Ginge

    value is everything
    #154075
    Andrew Hughes
    Member
    • Total Posts 1904

    For many years an increasing proportion of the UK workforce has been employed in the public sector where, mostly, revenue is guaranteed.

    The vast majority of people who work in this country are employees rather than employers. I often hear people from the private sector talk as though they are living life on the edge, ducking and diving to earn their money. In reality, private sector and public sector mostly amounts to the same thing for most people: staring at a computer screen all day for an average wage whilst putting up with managers who are either incompetent or malicious. I have worked in public and private sector areas and the two are virtually identical – the same meaningless management speak that Tooting referred to, the same soulless grinding down of talent, the same obsession with cost/targets at the expense of everything else, the same cutting of corners at the expense of employees physical and mental health, the same disregard for genuine customer service. I could go on, but I won’t.

    The attraction of being self-employed is that you answer to fewer people, but ultimately, no-one is an island. We all ultimately are working for someone else, whether it’s our bank, credit card company, landlord, utility provider, family and we all depend on other people – we depend on the person driving that big lorry to stop at the pelican crossing as they should, we rely on the person making our lunchtime sandwich to wash their hands, we (even if we go private) depend on the dedication and concentration of the surgeon. The belief in the individual standing on their own is a false and deluding one.

    In that context, being a professional punter is a job, no more, no less. You have to weigh up the pros and cons. The comments about temperament and many different styles are crucial. I don’t have the patience or the knowledge to be a full-time punter but if I did, the idea of staring at databases all day would drive me potty. I would need the excitement of the racecourse to give the day structure.

    #154077
    Salselon
    Member
    • Total Posts 883

    "Andrew Hughes wrote: The attraction of being self-employed is that you answer to fewer people, but ultimately, no-one is an island. We all ultimately are working for someone else, whether it’s our bank, credit card company, landlord, utility provider, family and we all depend on other people – we depend on the person driving that big lorry to stop at the pelican crossing as they should, we rely on the person making our lunchtime sandwich to wash their hands, we (even if we go private) depend on the dedication and concentration of the surgeon. The belief in the individual standing on their own is a false and deluding one.

    Sorry, but that’s absolutely not true.If you choose to have Sky TV, you are not working for them. You are working for your own money, and you CHOOSE to buy or not buy that product. Same with water, electricty. If you CHOOSE to have a family, you are not working for them, you are working for yourself (if you are self-employed), and you CHOOSE to spend your money feeding, sheltering and caring for them. I could go on.

    #154083
    Andrew Hughes
    Member
    • Total Posts 1904

    From the moment we are born to the moment we pass away, we depend on other people. Yes of course, you can choose a different water supplier, but unless you are able to access your own freshwater stream, you will need to pay someone to provide you with water. And even if you did have access to your own stream, you would depend on other people not polluting it.

    Of course, you are correct to state that you are not directly employed by the utility company, that was clumsy language I used and should have taken more care over it.

    Your point about families was an interesting one. I’m not sure I go along with the way you put it. Certainly to have a family is a choice. However, are you really still working for yourself if you have a family? Would a self-employed father of three ever say to himself, "Actually, I’ve had a good day at work today, but since this is my money, today I choose not to buy my children any food’? Your point here sounds more like economic theory than a recognisable model of humanity.

    My general point is that our society is increasingly fragmented, in part because people do not feel any connection to one another, believe that they can live in glorious isolation and that nothing they do has any impact on anyone else. Working for a wage or betting for a living amounts to the same thing: you work to earn money.

    Dave Nevison has some interesting comments on some of the professional punters he came across who believed they were ‘beating the system’ or ‘putting two fingers up at society’ but in reality would have been better off stacking shelves at Tesco.

    Of course, Nevison isn’t just a pro punter because he’s good at it, he loves it. His job is his hobby, indeed his passion. If you can get to be working at something you love, then that is a wonderful thing indeed, whether it be a self-employed on course punter or a social worker.

Viewing 15 posts - 106 through 120 (of 137 total)
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