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I have two words for you: recency bias.
Punters pay too much attention to a horse’s most recent runs. If you can find a horse with decent back form and even better an excuse for a poor run or runs not widely known or appreciated you may well have a value bet. Even if there is no apparent reason for a poor run it can pay to ignore it, especially if fitness may have been an issue.
Two recent examples: I fancied Crescent Island on Saturday on some of his back form and rang someone connected to the stable who told me his saddle had slipped early last time when he pulled up. I would have backed him anyway but this increased confidence.
Today in the first race at Carlisle you had a horse who had won its bumper at the track on similar ground to today’s but had pulled up over hurdles subesquently after a bad mistake, yet was available at 33/1 in a place.
Neither of the above examples won, but I’m sure you can appreciate that they were both value bets as a result of recency bias.Hurdygurdyman- I have to know- did you take your name from a famous quote from Barney Curley?
Shame you closed that account One Eye, I’d have paid you good money for it! Still will if you can reactivate it!
I don’t agree. Risking a horse that may be worth 30 or 40 grand to land a coup in a claimer is very poor risk and reward when you might lose him for 10k, for example. The claimer system is far more transparent and more of a meritocracy than the handicap one, which is a licence to cheat. In claimers, owners and trainers have to decide every time they run what they think their horse is worth and if they take a chance on this valuation someone shrewd can be waiting to take their horse away. Running down the field in 5 or 6 handicap races carries no risk whatsover. You seem to forget that if claimers replaced low grade handicaps the horse would be equally at risk of being claimed in the "quiet" runs as it would when off for it’s life.
By the way, who in God’s name has ever said that claimers were "safe betting propositions?"You have said it all guys.
The only way to deal with this issue is to remove the bookmakers beloved handicap racing.
The system is wide open to manipulation.What is the alternative Coggy? Claimers would have exactly the same problem.
Ehh…no they wouldn’t. The difference is that if you drop a horse into a claimer below its true value to try and land a touch, you rusk losing the horse, a perfect deterrent.
How insane was that sale? In a time when Ireland has the IMF in and 16% unemployment the sums that unproven NH horses were making was staggering.
Hi fellas
Price differential looks too big to me too- SYT looks priced more on hype than the substance of his Northern Hemisphere form. Races down under are not as strongly run which may suit him better than Saturday where Workforce will keep tabs on Confront, who will surely keep them honest. If SYT gets beat on Saturday he may be on a plane to Oz in time for their breeding season….Have taken a bit of 10/1 Pour Moi today with the news that he’s a likely runner- French win was impressive.
This is genuinely not spam, but has anyone tried the Formbet ratings? I’m trialling them at the mo and would be interested in anyone’s experience of them.
I can’t see the form being turned around at Epsom- Seville had already won a G1, CH was still green in the prelims and early in the race. It was a very likeable performance but 2/1 is too short.
If you forced me to have a bet it would be on recital, though he doesn’t look entirely straightforward. Fallon opined that the strong headwind may have been a factor in the way he raced up the Leopardstown straight, which was interesting.I don’t really understand your point. Surely BOG is only of value if yur horse drifts and wins, hardly likely witha horse that has been gambled by shrewd connections?
Photo finish between day one of Royal Ascot and the York May meeting. Either well worth a trip, hoping to do the former this year!
Don’t know if this helps but I really fancy him too. He was jumping the big fences well last year until being slightly distracted at the Chair and paying the penalty. I put him up on my blog shortly after the weights came out when he was 70 on Betfair and was delighted with his last run in the Bobbyjo. On that form he’s got a better chance than The Midnight Club and of the two, I think he’s more likely to get around.
I think the juice is gone out of his price now and you might be better waiting for the ground as he wants it on top. Rumour is David Casey rides.Turning out quite as quickly as that wouldn’t really be the modus operandi of Curley. I haven’t seen any figs but imagine that his s/r with horses off longer than 3 month breaks is far superior than those off shorter. And also, they’ll probably want to be in a market that has plenty of liquidity than one tucked away on a busy day. This is going to be a 13/8, 7/4 poke on ‘the day’ so would imagine they’ll want a few layers to stand it.
Correct. This horse will disappear for some time and will pop up on decent ground in the Summer/Autumn- I’ve had him under observation for some time!
I strongly suspect that the drug has been used for some time but that the ability to detect it is more recent. That is the usual course of events with various drugs, including EPO in its many forms.
I wonder if there is any further censure possible for Mr Henderson in the light of the Royal College’s findings? If they could conclude that he developed a protocol to deliberately conceal systematic breaking of the rules of racing is he going to be allowed to carry merrily on while the vet, in effect his employee, loses his livelyhood? Where’s the justice here?
