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Hello all,
I am considering having an ante-post bet on Willie Mullins’ Arbor Supreme for the Grand National. I think he has a decent chance of winning as he has won impressively over 3m 6f in the past and has also won on a range of goings. He also has experience of the course (even though he fell).
I thought his staying on second behind Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo Chase was an encouraging run and if he gets in he will be nicely weighted.
I will admit that my racing knowledge is limited and I know the GN is not a race to pile into because of the unpredictability of the race. So I have a few queries for the more knowledgable punters out there:-
1. Do you think Arbor Supreme will get in?
2. Who do you think his jockey will be (Townend injured I beleive)?
3. Does he have a chance of winning?
4. If so, Is 25/1 good odds for him?Thanks in advance for any responses
Hi Bearcub.
You would be better off posting under the Grand National thread under big race discussions.
It looks like Arbor Supreme is already inside the top 40 weights and should therefore get a run if he is fit to line up. He is slightly higher than 25-1 on Betfair so that would be the obvious place to make your wager. Alternatively wait for the bookmaker special offers like non-runner no bet and money back for fallers which should emerge next week.
bear…..Good advice from Kasparov, I’d go for the Non Runner No Bet angle. Don’t know about the other firms, but Bet365 are currently NRNB, and he’s available at 20’s. I reckon he needs 4 to come out to be guaranteed a run, but with 2 weeks to go, he should surely make it.
Although he unseated rider last year, he looked as if he was running a good race at the time, thought I suppose jumping the names of the game.
As for the jockey, don’t know if he’s engaged for another, but David Casey could be an option?????
‘Please be aware that in some Antepost markets it is possible for more horses to be declared than the field safety limit allows and as such this market may have balloted out horses. Bets on such horses will be void.’
From the Betfair market.
Casey will ride Arbor Supreme. Walsh on The Midnight Club and Patrick Mullins on Dooneys Gate.
Not sure who rides Ballytrim and Our Monty yet (doubtful Scotsirish will run). Katie Walsh and Davy Condon will probably be in contention. Barry Geraghty has no ride yet so he could pick up a decent spare.
Thanks for the advice, very much appreciated. I just remember him going pretty well last year before unseating his rider and I know he ticks some of the trends.
I just had a gut feeling for him, I haven’t actually looked at the race in detail yet and won’t do so until closer to the day. But I will definitely have a small bet on him.
The last time I had a hunch about a horse in the GN it was Mon Mome and his price was slightly more profitable
Don’t know if this helps but I really fancy him too. He was jumping the big fences well last year until being slightly distracted at the Chair and paying the penalty. I put him up on my blog shortly after the weights came out when he was 70 on Betfair and was delighted with his last run in the Bobbyjo. On that form he’s got a better chance than The Midnight Club and of the two, I think he’s more likely to get around.
I think the juice is gone out of his price now and you might be better waiting for the ground as he wants it on top. Rumour is David Casey rides.
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