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Bogey site/shop – unbeliavable run of losers

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Viewing 5 posts - 18 through 22 (of 22 total)
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  • #379945
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5618

    Thanks for the lecture GingerProf :)

    Here’s a link to articles explaining the mistaken belief in a ‘Law Of Averages’ and its correction via the ‘Law Of Large Numbers’, which is essentially what you’re going on about, and is lost on many

    Your mate Phil Bull was a withering critic of ‘averages’

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

    In addition a little light bed time reading, linked from those pages

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

    you know it don’t come easy

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f1/Monkey-typing.jpg/250px-Monkey-typing.jpg

    #379953
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Shame you closed that account One Eye, I’d have paid you good money for it! Still will if you can reactivate it!

    #379976
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29188

    Thanks for the lecture GingerProf :)

    Here’s a link to articles explaining the mistaken belief in a ‘Law Of Averages’ and its correction via the ‘Law Of Large Numbers’, which is essentially what you’re going on about, and is lost on many

    Your mate Phil Bull was a withering critic of ‘averages’

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

    In addition a little light bed time reading, linked from those pages

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

    you know it don’t come easy

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f1/Monkey-typing.jpg/250px-Monkey-typing.jpg

    And you say I’m the Prof Drone? :lol:

    Call it what you will.

    Value Is Everything
    #380111
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25894

    A quick example. I had a ‘permed’ Correct Score treble on the darts last week. The first two won at odds of 16/1 and 12/1 and my final leg was Adrian Lewis to beat John Part 10-4, 10-5, 10-6, or 10-7. Lewis led Part 9-4 but then proceeded to lose the next four legs before winning 10-8. That run of four legs lost by Lewis cost me a minimum of £2,500, this after I’d deposited just £80 at the time.

    Could you not of layed out on betfair?

    Member since March 2008
    #380142
    HorseBettingBlog
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7

    Hi One Eye

    I would not have closed said account myself.
    The concept of an unlucky shop or website is just supersticeous sillyness.

    If you are a bad punter you will probably lose over time but a big losing run is normally just statisical scatter at play.

    In a strange way a horrendous record at an individual bookmaker can actually be a good thing. Picture their traders or liability software checking your history when pondering to take a future big bet of you ( on what you believe is great value ) .

    Your bad historic record wil be of great assistance to you in getting on. They will look at your bad record and say ..we want to keep this Guy sweet he has been historically great for us.

    Also ponder them running a future offer to selected account holders. They may search their database for say ..known historic losers who have not deposited in a while. Such offers are easy extra cash if used wisely. Close your account and you won’t get it. Keep it open with zero balance and you will.

    In short a particular account with a very bad history can be an asset.

    Reopen it I suggest. Wait for a similar reactivation offer and play it tight next time. Trade qualifying bets against exchanges and leave yourself with the free cash to play with.

    If seeking a partner to help get extra weight on for myself, the ideal partner would be someone with a known history to the bookmakers of losing big. Mug punter Premiership soccer player for example. Their repuatation with the bookmaker as being a good thing for the bookie would permit a lot of shrewder decent stake action on the account before said bookie eventually caught on.

    Cheers
    Mick

Viewing 5 posts - 18 through 22 (of 22 total)
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