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Gaining an edge in jump race betting

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  • #20329
    kasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    I have been following jump racing for about 18 months. However, it seems to me that most horses in the big races are fairly well exposed and correctly priced given the information available prior to the race.In the smaller races inside information (which I don’t have) and random factors are more important but that doesn’t make it any easier to get an edge.

    From reading the literature, it seems that younger horses who race prominently were underpriced in the past. However, I am pretty sure that anomaly was spotted years ago. Similarly trainer form is important but well-known to all.

    Whereas I had some success on the flat with draw and pace analysis, these features aren’t so critical in jump racing.

    So I am feeling a bit lost.I am not expecting it to be easy to beat the market but I don’t even know where to focus my effort.

    Can anyone recommend useful avenues for research?

    #379518
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    I have been following jump racing for about 18 months. However, it seems to me that most horses in the big races are fairly well exposed and correctly priced given the information available prior to the race.In the smaller races inside information (which I don’t have) and random factors are more important but that doesn’t make it any easier to get an edge.

    From reading the literature, it seems that younger horses who race prominently were underpriced in the past. However, I am pretty sure that anomaly was spotted years ago. Similarly trainer form is important but well-known to all.

    Whereas I had some success on the flat with draw and pace analysis, these features aren’t so critical in jump racing.

    So I am feeling a bit lost.I am not expecting it to be easy to beat the market but I don’t even know where to focus my effort.

    Can anyone recommend useful avenues for research?

    It’s true "

    most

    horses in the big races are fairly well exposed and correctly priced". It’s up to us to find the one or two that are incorrectly priced. Whether they’re exposed or not.

    As far as trainer form goes, I find punters and bookmakers still don’t allow enough for this aspect. However, there’s also a lot of rubbish written which is misleading to punters. One winner does not make an in form trainer. It does not matter how many winners a trainer has had. What punters should look for is how many ran to form. Also, punters sometimes look too far back. For a stable with a lot of runners it may be best to only consider a few days results. For a trainer with fewer runners, three weeks record might be appropriate. Any horse who’s SP was odds-on probably hasn’t run to form in second, where as an outsider finishing 5th of 20 probably has.

    Pace is still an important factor in jump racing. If a race is probably going to be slowly run, it will usually favour those ridden prominently. Strongly run races usually favour those held up. If there is a horse who’s gone against either trend to run well, it is probably worth keeping an eye on in future.

    Temperament and jumping ability are also important factors.

    Another massively important factor at this time of year is "best fresh". Those that invariably run well after a break or on reappearance.

    Course form, left/right handed, flat/undulating etc may or may not be important…

    As well as the obvious going and distance must be taken in to account to find the value.

    Whatever the sort of race, it is how the punter interprets form that matters. In my opinion the best way to find an "edge" is not to search for the one important aspect, but to try and allow for everything.

    Value Is Everything
    #379524
    ricky lake
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2999

    excellent post Mark , top class

    Ricky

    #379540
    kasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    Thanks Ginger. I also appreciate the pre-race analysis you do from time to time, such as on the Hennessy Gold Cup.

    One thing I would add is that I try to figure out why a horse has been entered for a particular race. For example why is Balthazar King entered for the Hennessy? Presumably Philip Hobbs thinks he has a better chance than the 140-1 NRNB on the exchange. But if he thought that then he and his staff would be entitled to back him, so the price ought to reflect what the Hobbs stable think of him, which suggests he is really a no-hoper after all.

    #379570
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    Handicap chases with a longish priced fav will be where you have the greatest edge from my experience, many underbet horses in those contests :)

    #379578
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Thanks Ginger. I also appreciate the pre-race analysis you do from time to time, such as on the Hennessy Gold Cup.

    One thing I would add is that I try to figure out why a horse has been entered for a particular race. For example why is Balthazar King entered for the Hennessy? Presumably Philip Hobbs thinks he has a better chance than the 140-1 NRNB on the exchange. But if he thought that then he and his staff would be entitled to back him, so the price ought to reflect what the Hobbs stable think of him, which suggests he is really a no-hoper after all.

    I wouldn’t look too closely Kasparov. It could be owners of Balthazar King just want a runner in the Hennessy. It happens more than you might think. Chris Gordon was at a Hennessy preview I went to on Tuesday. He had a runner in a race at Newbury today. Told us not to back it, wasn’t good enough and only taking part because the owner wants a runner at Newbury. Paul Webber also said you won’t see Time For Rupert at Sandown, as his owner got her hand bag stolen there and refuses to go to Esher nowadays! He also had a foreign owner coming over and needed to run a horse on a particular day, the same owner had one with another trainer running the following day. So if you can second guess all the reasons for horses running Kasparov, you’re a better man than me. I just look at the form and evaluate it that way.

    Value Is Everything
    #379608
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Not surprisingly, I disagree.
    All the form study and all the ancillaries in the world will still leave you vulnerable – unless you have some idea what a trainer is trying to do with a horse.
    Nobody gets it right all the time, just those who give proper weight to this crucial aspect are liable to be wrong less often.

    #379622
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    There are times when listening to the trainer is wise Reet, but they are biased towards their own children.

    Value Is Everything
    #379630
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    There’s a bit more involved than just reading what the trainer says, Ginger, :lol:

    #379640
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Never said there wasn’t Reet. :wink:

    Value Is Everything
    #379666
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Never said there wasn’t Reet. :wink:

    No Ginger – you just told Kasparov it doesn’t matter.
    Like myriad other subjects you feign expertise on, it might just be better to say nothing, rather than show your ignorance.

    #379707
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Never said there wasn’t Reet. :wink:

    No Ginger – you just told Kasparov it doesn’t matter.
    Like myriad other subjects you feign expertise on, it might just be better to say nothing, rather than show your ignorance.

    You’re taking something out of context again.

    You ought to know, you’re the expert on "feign"ing expertise. :wink:

    My "ignorance" is doing me very well, thank you very much. :lol:

    Sorry folks.
    Enough of this.

    As manuel used to say "I know nothing".

    Value Is Everything
    #379848
    Oasisdreamer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 305

    Kasparov,

    Can I suggest you focus on a small band of trainers you like and have had some success with in the past? Maybe a group of say 6-8 trainers, a couple of the largest yards, a few middle range yards and maybe 4 smaller yards.

    Understand why you’ve had success with them in the past, maybe certain races or courses spring to mind. That should give you some confidence as you will be that bit clearer on their methods and targets for their horses.

    Avoid your yards if they are out of form, pay special attention to them if are flying.

    Look for horses from your yards that you feel are over priced for whatever reason (stable been in poor form previously, horse been running over wrong trip / ground etc). I’d look in the 4/1 to 16/1 range and avoid the shorter prices.

    Good luck.

    #379861
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Look for horses from your yards that you feel are over priced for whatever reason (stable been in poor form previously, horse been running over wrong trip / ground etc). I’d look in the 4/1 to 16/1 range and avoid the shorter prices.

    Good luck.

    Yes, look for "over priced" horses. But beware of a set of prices to aim for, otherwise you could just end up making form study fit the prices.

    Value Is Everything
    #379970
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I have two words for you: recency bias.
    Punters pay too much attention to a horse’s most recent runs. If you can find a horse with decent back form and even better an excuse for a poor run or runs not widely known or appreciated you may well have a value bet. Even if there is no apparent reason for a poor run it can pay to ignore it, especially if fitness may have been an issue.
    Two recent examples: I fancied Crescent Island on Saturday on some of his back form and rang someone connected to the stable who told me his saddle had slipped early last time when he pulled up. I would have backed him anyway but this increased confidence.
    Today in the first race at Carlisle you had a horse who had won its bumper at the track on similar ground to today’s but had pulled up over hurdles subesquently after a bad mistake, yet was available at 33/1 in a place.
    Neither of the above examples won, but I’m sure you can appreciate that they were both value bets as a result of recency bias.

    #379979
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Carv
    You’re probably already aware of this site
    http://www.britishhorseracing.com/resources/about/whatwedo/disciplinary/searchwhyranbadly.asp
    but it may be useful for those who don’t have stable contacts.
    The Crescent Island incident is covered within.

    Kasparov
    If you wish to know what a trainer is doing with a horse, then the first place to look is the horse itself. Balthazar King was never on my radar for the Hennessy purely on grounds of ability, but is a good ground horse who rarely runs in the depths of winter, and probably ran as this was his last opportunity for 3 months to pick up any prize money, (which ran down to 6th place in this particular instance). If the ground holds, the run won’t have done him, or his OR, any harm anyway.
    There is no substitute for form, but some understanding of why a horse runs and where is often a very useful adjunct.

    #380034
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    I’m lmao at some of the strokes being pulled at Folkestone today, not a great advert for the sport at all. A horse with a row of duckeggs scoots up at odds on, a coup with a p2p duffer on its handicap debut backed in from 8s to 6/4? Jesus wept …
    I guess we all need an edge if we have to put up with this crap.

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