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.
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& Steeplechasing
Excellence analysis.
When I assessed the going allowance for
leopardstown
yesterday, I had the hurdles and the chase courses the same at
-0.79s/f
(soft).
Even if you had the going allowance for the chase course slower at
-1.00s/f
(heavy), this would only bring the speed figure for the winner up to
59
I am having a major problem with the time of this race, it is too bad to be true, we will have to see how Dave Edwards assesses the race.
Leopardstown (IRE)
28-Dec-14
12:20 Identity Thief 2m4f
38
12:50 Usuel Smurfer 3m
68
01:20 Le Vent D´Antan 2m3f
107
01:50 Lieutenant Colonel 3m
76
02:20 Shemshal 2m
94
02:55 Road To Riches 3m
44
03:25 Up For Review 2m
108
Mike.
Trying to get a handle on the ground prior to the Lexus, I looked at the chase times for the previous day and just got more confused. The 2M chase was run in a time that suggested good to soft, the 3M chase, which had 26 runners so surely wasn’t run at a crawl, in a time that pointed to heavy ground.
I raised this with an Irish friend, asking if the far side (covered twice in the 3M chases) was likely to be much softer than the home straight. He agreed this was possible as the back straight is tree lined and gets very little sun during this part of the year.
Also checked back to last year and you see the same massive difference between the 3M times and those in the shorter races. Racing Post speed figure for Bobs Worth was 24, so this year will likely be off the scale (i.e under zero!).
Working on the assumption that the
Lexus
chase was run at a true pace, and on going that was
-1.00s/f
Heavy, the projected time distance of the
Lexus
chase is
3m2f
, and not as advertised
3m
.
In conclusion, the advertised
3m
race distance of the
Lexus
chase is very suspect
Just for the record, I gave
Bobs Worth
last years winner a speed figure of
49
Food for thought.
Going allowance Leopardstown 29.12.14
-0.45s/f
(good to soft).
The problem concerning the advertised
3m
Leopardstown chase distance popped up again, with the time of
Don Poli’s
race (slow by
52.50s
)
When I treated the race as being run over
3m2f
the speed figure of
111
looked correct, using the advertised distance of
3m
, the speed figure was only
18
Leopardstown (IRE)
29-Dec-14
12:20 Down Under 2m5f
0
12:55 Windsor Park 2m4f
116
01:25 Hurricane Fly 2m
152
02:00 Bentelimar 2m4f
105
02:35 Carrigmoorna Rock 2m4f
100
03:05 Don Poli 3m
111
03:35 Vigil 2m
94
Mike.
Mike, it seems to be getting curioser and curioser.
BTW, with an RPR of 172, the Post have Road to Riches as the best Lexus winner in 6 years.
I just took a look at previous races over the
3m
chase distance at
Leopardstown
.
Leopardstown (IRE) 09-Feb-14 Last Instalment 3m
+44.70s
Leopardstown (IRE) 09-Feb-14 Tammys Hill 3m
+57.50s
Leopardstown (IRE) 29-Dec-13 Carlingford Lough 3m
+35.50s
Leopardstown (IRE) 28-Dec-13 Bobs Worth 3m
+35.10s
Leopardstown (IRE) 09-Feb-13 Sir Des Champs 3m
+53.60s
Leopardstown (IRE) 09-Feb-13 Salsify 3m
+57.90s
Leopardstown (IRE) 28-Dec-12 Tidal Bay 3m
+45.60s
Leopardstown (IRE) 28-Dec-12 Back In Focus 3m
+48.10s
Leopardstown (IRE) 12-Feb-12 Quel Esprit 3m
+42.80s
Leopardstown (IRE) 12-Feb-12 Salsify 3m
+46.50s
Leopardstown (IRE) 28-Dec-11 Last Instalment 3m
+34.40s
Leopardstown (IRE) 28-Dec-11 Synchronised 3m
+37.50s
Leopardstown (IRE) 27-Dec-11 Cross Appeal 3m
+27.00s
Leopardstown (IRE) 09-Jan-11 Across The Bay 3m
+31.20s
Leopardstown (IRE) 29-Dec-10 The Shepherd 3m
+29.90s
Leopardstown (IRE) 28-Dec-10 Mourad 3m
+37.60s
Leopardstown (IRE) 23-Jan-10 Prince Erik 3m
+30.80s
As I suspected the 3m chase distance is incorrect, or the standard time is
32.0s
out
I will have to pick my way back through my speed figures and correct them.
Mike.
I’ve dug out the last 10 winning times and the given going from the ATR database, if you can believe them as gospel.
2014 Road To Riches (Soft) 6.33.9
2013 Bobs Worth (Yielding To Soft) 6.17.1
2012 Tidal Bay (Soft) 6.27.6
2011 Synchronised (Good) 6.19.5
2010 Pandorama (Soft To Heavy) 6.30.0
2009 What A Friend (Yielding) 6.33.7
2008 Exotic Dancer (Yielding To Soft) 6.25.2
2007 Denman (Good) 6.30.5
2006 The Listener (Heavy) 6.43.0
2005 Beef Or Salmon (Yielding To Soft) 6.23.1
I must admit that I’m not a stopwatch specialist and I have little faith in the truth of the going reports but based on previous years and the goings given I don’t really see how this year’s time is that horrendous.
This year’s race on soft comes out almost identical to What A Friend in 2009, when the going was given as yielding.
The Listener had the slowest time by far when it was heavy back in 2006
The figures I find hard to believe from the list above is the Bobs Worth in 6.17.1 on yielding to soft, more than 13 seconds faster than Denman who was supposed to have recorded his win on Good ground.
As I say these figures I have quoted are potentially dubious. After all, ATR have Beef Or Salmon winning the race in
just over 4 minutes
, not once but twice
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was working on the speed figures for
Leopardstown
yesterday, and found the chase distance of
2m5f
to be
2m7f
.
The original speed figure I had for
Down under’s
chase win was
0
Leopardstown (IRE)
29-Dec-14
12:20 Down Under 2m5f
0
12:55 Windsor Park 2m4f
116
01:25 Hurricane Fly 2m
152
02:00 Bentelimar 2m4f
105
02:35 Carrigmoorna Rock 2m4f
100
03:05 Don Poli 3m
111
03:35 Vigil 2m
94
After the distance adjustment, I ammended
Down Under’s
speed figure to
105
Leopardstown (IRE)
29-Dec-14
12:20 Down Under 2m5f
105
12:55 Windsor Park 2m4f
116
01:25 Hurricane Fly 2m
152
02:00 Bentelimar 2m4f
105
02:35 Carrigmoorna Rock 2m4f
100
03:05 Don Poli 3m
111
03:35 Vigil 2m
94
Just in case anybody is interested
Dave Edwards
gave
Road To Riches
a speed figure of
19
in the
lexus
, I made it a figure of
137
, with
RPR
a rating of
172
, so who is right, postcards addressed to….
Mike.
Hi lads
It’s no surprise to me that Leopardstown distances are suspect- anyone on Twitter will remember us having a very similar discussion around this time last year. I wouldn’t believe them there if they told me tomorrow was Wednesday- they don’t care about accuracy.I’ve checked the Lexus distance on Google maps, it’s 3.04 miles, or 3 miles and 211 feet.
I made it very similar to Slowhand, though it is not so easy with the current Google Earth image taken at a time when the fences had been stripped out.
3282 yd for a circuit, 1928 yd from 7 out, run-up took 10.7s with average race speed of 16.4s/f gives me 24.33f or 3 miles and 220 feet. But it’s probably a fraction less due to slower speed in the run-up.
How confident are you in your standard times at Leopardstown?
How confident are you in your standard times at Leopardstown?
Ascot 3m(C) 5m 43.0s
Leopardstown 3m(C) 5m 42.0sSimon, the standard times I use for the English and Irish racecourses are compiled by
Dave Edwards
, the
French
standard times in the list below are mine.
Looking at the two grade 1 racecourse examples above, the standard times are very similar, so I can accept and use the Leopardstown 3m chase. standard time as a starting point.
The problem I am having with
leopardstown
chase distances is exactly the same as my post on the
16.10.14
about
Wetherby’s
incorrect race distances, which was no surprise to serious time students.
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =2&t=96354
Returning to the
lexus
chase, the race was true run, and Dave Edwards returned a speed figure for
Road to Riches
of
19
and last year he gave
Bob’s Worth
a figure of
24
, if this doesn’t throw up a
red flag
nothing will.
Going back to the standard times, I am not looking at them being a couple of seconds out it is
32.0s
, and if you are a time man and accept that
Road To Riches
ran to a speed figure of
19
all I can say is seek help.
The problem I have is, unlike you Simon, I do not have the might of
Timeform
behind me, I am a serious time student, these days I find I am standing in a room on my own.
Mike.
The problem with the Racing Post Standard Times at Leopardstown is the other distances that are wrong which make the 3 mile look incorrect.
The Racing Post standard time for
2m3f
is 4:32 which is 14.31 per furlong.
The Racing Post standard time for2m5f
is 5:00 which is 14.28 per furlong.
The Racing Post standard time for3m
is 5:42 which is 14.25 per furlong.
There lies your problem. Its not possible to have horses run faster furlongs at longer distances. The 2m3f and 2m5f standards are too easy to achieve which will throw out calculations for the other distances.
The problem is not the distance of the Lexus, which measures correctly, it’s Dave Edward’s standard times that are incorrect.
It may be that the 3 mile standard time is too hard to get particularly highlighted when you compare it to a course that should be faster, like Kempton, the Racing Post Standard Time there for 3 miles is 16 seconds slower than Leopardstown’s. I doubt very much that Kempton is 16 seconds stiffer than Leopardstown.
Good post from Slowhand.
Getting reliable jumps standard times is a minefield due to inaccurate times and distances, and due to those distances often varying. This may be even truer in Ireland than in UK. It is not how it should be, but it is how it is.
A possible shortcut would be to take some existing standard times – however flaky – to identify consistent discrepancies and adjust accordingly, though you would still be taking some things on trust.
Its not possible to have horses run faster furlongs at longer distances.
The
Lexus
chase is a grade 1 race, they run faster.
I have noticed in previous posts that you like to have a pop at me.
Please, I do not need somebody telling me I don’t understand the subject of standard times.
My French contacts would not have ask me to compile the standard times for French racing if they didn’t think I knew what I was doing, I can honestly say that I am the only person to ever have done this.
If we use American racecourses as an example:
The horses travel on average
12.8s
in sprint races to cover a furlong, and in routes they take
13.2s
, that’s a difference of only
0.4s
.
As a rule of thumb, in flat races I use
13.0s
per furlong, and over the jumps I use
16.0s
.
Mike.
Of course it is possible for individual horses to run faster at longer distances than other horses at shorter. I understood the reference to be to normalised/standardised times.
Of course it is possible for individual horses to run faster at longer distances than other horses at shorter. I understood the reference to be to normalised/standardised times.
This friendly argument about the standard times for the Leopardstown chase distances could be easily be solved if we knew what the
Timeform
standard times were, so that we could make a comparison, but I realise that on the pain of death you cannot say
Mike.
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