- This topic has 9 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
All the talk obviously about BC in the Diamond Jubilee, but I also believe Ortensia is the one to beat in the King Stand coming off her win in Dubai!?
Ground is a huge factor here- looks likely to be on the soft side of good at best which will be against Bated Breath and Sole Power. It’s not hard to see why Wizz Kid is the big mover- soft ground suits her well.
The questionable element about Wizz Kid has been getting home. She clearly likes Chantilly and the trip just under 5f. She ran well enough in the Diadem but she just gives the impression of a horse that has plenty of ability but very much needs things to fall in her lap. That said she has only had 10 runs so is open to more improvement than most in the field.
The roll of honour shows that the race has been relatively easy pickings for foreign raiders. The home defence looks to be vulnerable to a genuine group 1 performance.They worked Ortensia on the Alba Hathri this morning at about 6 O’clock.
The only reason I know is because I was out on a Caviar stakeout before work at oh-my-god-o’clock this morning and drove past a group of people standing around a camera man. I parked up nearby and went to investigate. (Hoping they might be waiting for Black Caviar.) Sure enough they were Aussies. I thought I’d cracked it and waited for some time nearby them. A bit later I nipped down the public footpath that crosses the Alba Hathri to watch the horses gallop. One of the group got chatting and told me they were there to watch Ortensia work. This is the Aussie crew:
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/02.jpg
Curiously the cameraman seemed intent on this horse though, which doesn’t look like the pictures I’ve seen of Ortensia. Anyone shed any light?
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/O1.jpg
Generally 3yo have a modest record. It comes a bit early in the year because most of the better 3yo are trained with the Guineas in mind and revert to sprinting later in the year when their stamina has failed. Also a lot of 2yo sprinters lack scope and do not improve from 2 to 3 on a par with horses suited to further.
Need some stats though – runners to place horses.
Also if 2 year old sprinters don’t improve much from 2 to 3, how come races like the Palace House are won by three year olds ? I know the weight for age allowance is greater in that race than this, but a couple of the three year olds here look over-priced.
The Palace House, being group 3 takes much less winning than the Kings Stand. Without the strong international challenge, it would not be able to retain its group 1 status. We seldom produce genuine group 1 standard 5f horses in this country and they are more likely to produce a group 1 level performance in the Nunthorpe or the L’Abbaye. Other than Oasis Dream I cannot think of many this century to earn a rating of 120+ for the minimum trip.
There’s a gaping void between Group 1 mile and a half horses and handicappers of the same distance,however when it comes to sprinters there’s a very fine line between the best handicappers and Group 1 performers,the finest gauge is The Wokingham and the Golden Jubilee,barely an hour covers both races so Draw,Going,Wind speed are a good gauge to assessing the Time of each.I’m a great one for taking a chance on a Progressive ‘Handicapper/Group 3’ performer in these Group 1’s as they are very often over-priced purely through lack of Group success,hence
Prohibit
last year and my idea of this years ‘Dark’ horse
Masamah
at 40/1 with sporting Index.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.