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Phare Isle
looks good value this morning for his chance in the
3.05
at
Ascot
. He travelled powerfully through the race last time out at Kempton right into the home straight and still going well down to two out he was a little awkward and lost momentum to open the door for Fontano. Ultimately he wasn’t quite good enough but his conquerer that day had been screaming out for 3 miles and looked potentially very well handicapped going into the race. Similarly at Cheltenham back in April he caught the eye travelling strongly right down the final 2 flights but then wasn’t quite strong enough in the finish. Todays drop in distance could be a huge benefit given how strongly he has been travelling over 3 miles and with a few question marks flying around this field he looks solid and has a good chance here.
1pt each way
Phare Isle
20/1 general
Tinshu looks well over priced in the Betfred Quebec Stakes at 2.20 at Lingfield given her recent handicap success. Strictly speaking on weights and measures she need to improve but that performance when winning a good handicap around here is probably a bit more meritorious than it looks . She doesn’t have a lot to find with Suits Me on their best form and has a real chance of hitting the frame at least. Lads time out she travelled well through out the race against some nice in form types and as the gaps opened up on turning in she took them in decisive fashion and won by a comfortable enough margin. She’s got a good record on the pollytrack and has won 2 of her last 3 starts around here both over today’s distance and having hit a bit form could well be up to listed level on the pollytrack.
1pt each way Tinshu 20/1 general
1st
Right at the bottom of the handicap Vino Griego looks interesting. He didn’t get further than the second fence last time out at Newbury when un seating his rider but if getting back on track today he may hold a good chance. He would have needed his first run of the season behind Grand Crus and can be forgiven that slack effort with the blinkers left off and certainly in the last couple of seasons he has been better for a run. The Centenary Novice Handicap chase form at the festival is looking strong now in hindsight and Vino Griego ran a fine race that day racing up on the pace and jumping soundly in the first time blinkers and with them re-applied they could just be the key to this horse. He hasn’t tried beyond 23f yet though managed a close 3rd when attempting that trip at Newbury last season and this furlong should be on radar and although the booking of Timmy Murphy isn’t overly significant statistically he’ll be an ideal partner to coax this horse along on his first attempt at 3 miles.1pt win Vino Griego 14/1 general
2nd
-1pt SP 16/1
Welsh National
ANY CURRENCY
made a hugely pleasing come back at Sandown in the London National after having been off the track since last November when sustaining a leg injury in preparation for this race last year. They never went at more than a moderate gallop through out the race and going into the railway fences for the last time he was the first to start showing signs of pressure and certainly coming away from four out he was the noticeably outpaced runner of a close bunched five. Positively he kept responding and never getting too far behind he just kept staying on at the one pace and ran on well to the line for third. Notoriously he’s never been a great seasonal starter and can be expected to come on for that run and he’ll appreciate the stamina test that is before him as highlighted when finishing a staying on fourth over four miles in the NH Chase at the Cheltenham festival in 2010. I don’t think he is absolutely exposed yet, certainly as a novice his jumping often hindered him and last year through injury we may not have seen the best of him again but certainly if he can bring form such as when behind Midnight Chase at Cheltenham last November into this race he would hold a big chance. Martin Keighley has had a cracking time of things so far this season and that form doesn’t look like slowing up any time soon and with this race having been a big target for Any Currency a big run can be expected.
1pt each way
Any Currency
16/1 Ladbrokes
PU -2pts SP 10/1
Wincanton
1.05
2pt winBetabob
6/1 Ladbrokes, Hills, Boylesports, Betfred (bog)
UP
Wetherby1.45
1pt winWayward Prince
10/1 Victor Chandler, Bet365 (bog)
UP
2.55
3pt winMr Crystal
11/1 Victor Chandler, Hills
UP –
Wolverhampton2.55
1pt winFastnet Storm
9/1 Stanjames
UP -1pt SP 13/2
Disappointing boxing day, I had intended to come up here and recommend Palace Jester and couple of others the next day but didn’t get round to it, oh well. Still amazed you can go 3 miles in the mud at Chepstow and get a deadheat
Leicester 3.35
A very competitive looking affair with lots of chances but I’d rather get involved in the larger prices than the short end of the market though admittedly Royal Opera looks potentially well treated towards the head of the market.
Giant O’Murcho
looks a big price, held up well off the pace last time he had plenty to do given the winner was able to dictate from the front. When falling at Wincanton previously he had travelled eye catchingly through out and looked a potential winner going to the last until falling and he could still have more offer now back into handicaps. Lawney Hill has been in pretty quiet form over the last couple of months but had a good placed runner at Kempton on boxing day so some signs of form in the yard.
1pt win
Giant O`Murcho
25/1 skybet, bet365
UP
Going to add to this race1pt win
Minsky Mine
16/1 skybet, victor chandler
UP -1pt SP 20/1
Art Scholar looks an absolute banker for the 14f races they run regularly round Wolver if they can find one soon, even 16f. Backed him for a decent bit when he last won and just looks one paced to me. Managed to cover off on the race snaffling a bit of place and laying the favourite before the off.
Have a bit to update on here but may not post again until the new year, turn another year older tomorrow and then of course new years. Think this thread is stuck on 32.5pts profit. Will attempt to give it a better go in the new year as a bit intermittent at moment as this should be further ahead if I got up on here more often.
Happy new year all.
Great thread Tim- will definitely look in here more often in 2012- keep it up mate!
Oh and Happy Birthday!Cheers Denis
Southwell 1.20
The 1.20 at Southwell looks fiercely competitive and the market seemingly reflects that with little margin for manouver. However one that may be of a little interest is the Richard Fahey trained What About You. It would be fair to say he has been more effective on the pollytrack to date than he has been on the turf and there is a good chance he could be a little bit better yet on the fibresand. His sire Statue Of Liberty has a fair record at Southwell going back to 2008 (50 runners – 9 winners – 18% strike rate – +21.50 sp/pl – ROI 43%). More interestingly is that 7 of those winners from 32 were making their fibresand debut at +27.50 profit at SP with an ROI of 85.94%. He showed plenty of speed dropped back to 5f last time out when finishing a close second at Kempton and certainly on his run previous when third at Lingfield behind pollytrack speacialist Capone he would have a good chance if he takes this surface first time which looks likely.
1pt win
What About You
12/1 general
UP
Cheltenham 2.10Advised in the features section
1pt win
Hells Bay
14/1 general
UP
2.45Sir Harry Ormesher was terrible on his first run back and hasn’t always been the most trustworthy since trying to run out at Plumpton but he looks really well handicapped here against a short priced favourite and if can re find form could be there or there abouts
1pt each way
Sir Harry Ormesher
10/1, coral, betfred, totesport, 365, skybet 1/4 odds 1,2,3
UP -2pts SP 10/1
Kempton 5.30
1pt win
Treadwell
9/1 Victor Chandler, Boylesports (bog) 9/1 available elsewhere
Looks to have needed his runs after coming back from a long absence and more encouraging last time out. Travelled ok off pace and going well into final 2 and struggling to quicken kept on as if shaping like a step back up in trip would suit. Formerly a smart 3yo handicapper and Jamie Osbourne has done ok with what he has kept rolling over the winter so far. Should be a fair pace on and with the step up in trip to suit he looks over priced.
UP -1pt SP 8/1
Sandown 3.45
In the last at Sandown
Cotillion
looks one of the most interesting horses on the day. Easily forgiven his run last time out on desperate conditions at Aintree he was an eye catching finisher in a race not run to suit on his previous start at todays course. That was over 2 ½ that day but a drop in trip doesn’t hold too much fear and certainly he is still open to some improvement off a rating of just 121 and given the yard are in top gear at the moment he looks to hold a big chance.
2pt win Cotillion 14/1 general
3rd
Other bets2.05
1pt win Pret A Thou 12/1 general
UP
3.101pt win Wymott 12/1 general
UP
Right that’s that updated!End of December was
Tame start to the new year, month will be in profit eventually though.
Such a donk for not getting Podgies Boy up on here yesterday, likely wait for the next bleeding one now but we’ve got a chance in the 4.45 with
Lishane Bog
. I was surprised to see Nibani open so short, as much as it was a cracking run over 8f last time out and a step up in trip will be to his liking he is never a 2/1 chance.
1pt win
Lishane Bog
12/1 Skybet & Stan James
UP -1pt SP 8/1
Sweet Secret
heads the weight for this mile contest and although the same stable have the short priced favourite I think there is a little mileage in her price this morning and worth a bet. This certainly looks a far easier contest than she has disputed the last twice and on both those occasions she has had to contend with a wide draw and been asked to race too hard to early to contest a lead. Last time out she travelled well for a long way and had them all under pressure between 3 and 2 out but once headed a furlong from home the petrol gauge dropped to empty and she swamped and eased home for the final 100 yards or so. With the stalls set outside she looks well placed in one and if returning to the form of her win at Kempton she should go well today. At the time I thought she might just progress a bit on the pollytrack having shown a marked improvement on pollytrack than on turf and I’d be hopeful certainly against fillies in this weaker looking race she can get her head in front again.
1pt win
Sweet Secret
8/1 general with most bog firms*
UP
Usurped the stable runner in the market in the end. Had priced Shared Moment up as favourite for this yesterday and originally 7/1 in the eve I was going to suggest both but rightfully she was shortened significantly when the mistake had be realisedThe London Mile Qualifier at 5.25 at Kempton tonight looks a very open affair. Legal Legacy put in an encouraging effort on his debut for his new trainer David Griffiths last time out. Held up off the pace he always had plenty on his plate with the winner getting an easy lead, the first three placings were filled by prominently ridden horses but he caught the eye closing nicely after getting outpaced just after 3 out when trying to quicken and on turning in was always going to struggle to catch the first three home but finished off well for a running on 5th. He has previously won over 8f for Michael Dods so the step up in trip certainly should hold no fears and not badly handicapped if he can build on that last outing he could go close.
1pt win
Legal Legacy
16/1 general
2nd
Also backed Big Bay on betfair before the off
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