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Kempton 19.00
1pt win
Roninski
@ 11/1 Stan James (bog)
Looks a bit over priced for this now, in good form and ran well last time out from a wide draw still closing in the finish I’m sure he is done with yet, not had a a lot of racing on the pollytrack.
Had Valencha as my number one horse for the race yesterday, priced 11/2, was 8/1 when first prices went up but the phantom price was pretty quickly adjusted. She isn’t a horse for the feint hearted and is her own worst enemy I am sure but she is talented and was ‘unlucky’ not to have won a group 3 for mares this year, travelled well lto to 2 out in a decent listed event and gave the suggestion the drop in trip today would suit, back into handicaps she looks dangerous, should have won her last handicap at Salisbury was again ‘unlucky’, a very common story for her, be warned!
Not a lot on for me today that I find is over priced enough to get me interested.
It was the same story yesterday where my stronger fancies were all under my price evaluations.
The one that interested me the most today was
O`Gorman
at Wolverhampton who was up at 9/2 last night and I thought I may be in business but he seems to be subject of a huge gamble and is as short as even money in some places
I have had an interest in
Notus De La Tour
earlier in the week but wouldn’t take the price now. I think Walkon may be gettable given he has failed to back up a promising debut on previous 2 seasons and he is half way to continuing the pattern today.
Star Of Angels (9/2 my price) and Easter Meteor (3/1 my price) look decent chances away from Cheltenham.
Lingfield 1.50
A competitive event at the top of the market and one I expect
Speightowns Kid
to come out on top in. He was an impressive enough winner on his last start and won with a fair bit in hand in the end eased in the closing stages and I was surprised he was only lifted 5lbs in the handicap. That was just his 2nd start for Jo Hughes having made a promising debut for her over course and distance previously. He has moved around a fair bit in his career but he appeared in better form than ever last time out and I think he will follow up his recent success ahead of Welease Bwian.
2pt win
Speightowns
Kid @ 4/1 365, betfred (both bog)
Incredulous to the fact Restless Harry is not favourite at the first shows for the Graduation Chase tomorrow.
Needs to go back left handed and up in trip, grade one 3 mile hurdler last year and a grade two winner at Haydock he should simply outclass the field tomorrow in receipt of 7lbs from all bar the outsider, will relish the soft ground also. Not seen the best of him over fences yet.
Not many prices through yet, Paddypower go 2/1 365 9/4
Fill your boots 2/1 or a above.
Lingfield 1.00
1pt win
Squad
@ 7/1 365, paddypower (bog)
Not a great looking contest, wasn’t helped by slow pace last time out and this looks an easier contest with a likely stronger gallop.
Well Restless Harry certainly proved my confidence well placed as he romped away winning 5/4f. I’m glad to see him back on track he is a horse I have a little soft spot for having followed him very closely as a novice hurdler backing him when a narrow 2nd in the Challow and when romping away with the a Neptune Hurdle at Cheltenham the race after his Challow effort. He was simply one of the bets of the season that day with 13/2 easily available through the morning and the 7/2 SP still too big a price, he was one of the clearest examples of a horse that should have started favourite but didn’t as you will ever see. I suggested it last night as I didn’t expect the 2/1+ to hang around and it surprisingly lasted longer than I thought up to 9.40am! These early prices that go around are little more than phantom prices trying to get some early feelers into the market and the prices are laughable half the time, I caught a little bit of Hugh Taylor mentioning the very same thing today on ATR.
Squad went close also, was the least exposed horse in the field that beat him which isn’t surprising but I was happy to be at that favourite.
Lingfield 13:00
There has been quite a move for this Whispering Warrior this morning which means Derfenna Art is a juicy 9/2 now. Likely to get own way in front as last time and since the track has been relayed it is easier to last your way home up the straight from a prominent position. I was drawn to the race originally because of Whinging Willie as he was given too much to do last time out but given the likely make up of this I think he could suffer a similar fate today.
1pt win
Derfenna Art
9/2, boyles, victor, stan (bog)
Lingfield 14:30
Italian Tom ran well in defeat last time out lending the suggesting he needed a step back up in trip and he has exactly that today, he is well handicapped off his best turf form in 2012 and he should go very close.
1pt win
Italian Tom
9/2 paddys, stan, coral (bog)
Catterick 2.15
Couple I think are worth an interest in the North Yorkshire Grand National are Posh Bird and Jaunty Journey.
Posh Bird won the race last year and excels at extreme trips simply, very slow one paced old bird and after a little pipe opener last time she should be spot on for this.
Jaunty Journey has been filed in the losing accounts many times in last couple of years but I think he is still capable around his mark. Solid performance over 3 1/2 last time at Haydock and he just stays and this extra trip looks perfect for him now.
1pt win
Jaunty Journey
12/1 general with most bog firms
1pt winPosh Bird
16/1 stan james (bog)
Lingfield 2.55
1pt each way
Reginald Claude
13/2 VC (bog) 6/1 general
Southwell 4.30.
Tight Lipped
@ 5/1 totesport
Caldercruix
@ 13/2 most bog
Southwell 5.00
Royal Bajan
@ 7/1 boyles and betfred
Wolverhampton 7.40
Travelling
@ 5/2 most bog
2.05 – 1pt win
Un Atout
@ 15/2 general
3.20 – 1pt win
Loch Ba
@ 12/1 general
4.00 – 2pt win
Zarkandar
@ 4/1 365, SJ, Coral
Southwell 3.10
2pt win Trois Vallees @ 20/1 bet365
Wolverhampton 7.20
2pt win Big Sylv @ 5/2 general bog
Two 1sts, close finishes but both were well under estimated in my book. Could not believe price of Trois Vallees, reasoning for runners on my blog. Could have been better was keen on Teen Ager today but felt he may fall victim to lack of pace but that didn’t come about and he scored nicely!! Did lay the favourite though for small compensation!
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