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Southwell 3.20
Much like yesterday todays racing at Southwell certainly has a wide open feel to it, syphoning through the specialists, come back kings etc can make thoughts very cloudy.
Colourbearer may prove one to side with, he didn’t finish his race off well over 6f last time out after racing up wide with a fair pace, previously he had been a lot more convincing back at 5f when beating the aging Tabaret. The drop in trip looks a big positive and a distance he could just excel at further. His record at 5f reads, (most recent first) 1.3.1.2.3.2.6.0 as opposed to 8.6.1.7.6 at 6f and has recorded a victory on his only start at the track when a 2 3/4 length winner back in August. They won’t hang around either with pace all over the gates so he should get things run to suit and this typical slow burning Bradley horse is what he does well with at this level and he has more races in him.
1pt win
Colourbearer
8/1 Stanjames and BetFred
3rd
-1pt SP 9/2
Cheltenham 1.55
1pt win
Reve De Sivola
10/1 general
UP
1pt winFair Along
11/1 general
UP
Wetherby 2.551pt win
Le Roi Rouge
10/1 general
UP -1pt SP 20/1!Lingfield 3.20
I’m surprised to see such a difference in
Riggins
turf and aw ratings, last time he was on the polly track he dead heated with Fanunalter in a listed event and at the time broke the course record. He has record three wins from three runs on the pollytrack, though he has similarly high standards of form on the turf it could be worth chancing he is just a bit happier on the pollytrack and off a handicap rating of 94 he looks very interesting on a surface he might just be that bit more effective on.
Fantasy Gladiator
also looks over priced, getting up very late last time out at Nottingham he will be well suited by a return to the polly track and meets many rivals here on better terms for previous meetings despite him being far more effective on this surface. He put in a top effort at Kempton chasing home Red Gulch on his last start on the pollytrack ahead of three of today’s rivals and may just be able to stretch out a bit more improvement for the surface. Stall three may not prove to be a bad thing with the stalls to the outside and Nazreef in gate 1 he could get an ideal tow through the race.
Both look value for their chance in an open market.
1pt win
Fantasy Gladiator
12/1 general
UP
1pt winRiggins
12/1 general
1st
+12pts SP 9/2
Wolverhampton 3.10
Stand Guard
was tackling 14f for the first time on his last start and it looked to stretch him just a little too far. Held up to rear as the race evolved going into the final 3f the response was limited and turning in he was beaten.
He’d been an eye catching closer over 10f at Kempton previously when travelling well on the sharp inner course. When turning there was plenty to do to catch the first two who had turned into the straight with a big positional advantage, added to the fact he got blocked in his run he done well to cut the finishing position down to two lengths and with a clearer run is value for another length at least. Returning to 12f today is a big plus given his last two starts and that his last two runs at 12f he has won, coincidently both were at this course. He has won six times at this course and though he isn’t the progressive force of old he has the ability and given a likely strong pace today he could just cause an upset.
1pt win
Stand Guard
16/1 Skybet
3rd
-1pt SP 14/1
Lingfield 1.20
Emmuska
looks to hold a good chance. Outpaced badly at Newmarket in a decent fillies nursery behind subsequent listed winner Pimpernel she’ll have a good chance of getting back on track in this weaker race returning to a mile. Pushed along before half way she may not have always been at home over the course but encouragingly she managed to keep on and finish close with the remainder of the field (two fillies pulled well clear and look progressive). She’d been making nice progress to that point in maidens, when getting beat by Ittasal on her only pollytrack start looked like she would benefit by racing at a mile and then confirmed this by winning next time out at Sandown in another improved effort, maybe fortunate to win that day given seconds finish but she was well clear of the third anyway. So it comes as no surprise she was outpaced in a better race dropped in trip last time out and returning to a mile in this easier race she makes a lot of interest, allied to the fact she is lightly raced and unexposed on this surface there could just be more to come from this filly.
1pt win
Emmuska
15/2 William Hills, 7/1 general
1st +7.5pts SP 9/2Lingfield 2.20
The more I think about it I just can’t resist a little tickle on this runner. An exceptionally open contest and the market is tight and there is no value to be had with the front of it, Regeneration was a runner I was hoping may just sneak in bigger than his current price but no joy.
Ghostwing
certainly won’t be the worst 50/1 shot you’ll back, he is a quirky sod but he has some good form in the book, none better than when he was hugely eye catching at Ascot in May travelling strongly through the race in rear tracking all the way into the final furlong none other than Deacon Blues but couldn’t go with that horse when he went and changed gear, which in hindsight is understandable, but kept on and ran well to the line. Amongst that races as well as Deacon Blues was Striking Spirit, Imperial Guest, Edinburgh Knight, Dungannon and Son Of The Cat all putting in good performances and looks as strong handicap form as you could ask for.
He has been placed off 90 on the AW when running a close 2nd and only having had 3 starts on the polly track it wouldn’t be unbelievable to see him make use of a rating of 83. He has been off the track since June and he didn’t follow up his Ascot run granted but I can find excuses for those runs enough so that I wouldn’t have him as a no hoper in this race and the stable have had a couple of winners in the last couple of weeks also so some positives for him coming into this.
1pt win
Ghostwing
50/1 general
UP
Running Total +32.5ptsKempton 4.40*
1pt win
Absa Lutte
14/1 Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler
UP1pt win
Dancing Freddy
7/1 Stan James, Victor Chandler
UP
Fancied this race a bit more as the market kept shaping, wanted to be against the front three certainly thought Absa Lutte would come home ahead of Estonia, not to be!Kempton 5.50
A good looking Nursery to get stuck into.
Kune Kune
hasn’t been seen since running at Ayr under some pretty testing conditions, she struggled to get involved that day and stopped pretty quickly and I’d be certain that she failed to act on the heavy ground. She had previously been highly impressive at Pontefract making her maiden look like she was beating a bunch of selling platers, showing speed from a low draw to race prominently she was in front by half way going to fast for them and she lengthened away impressively. However, on closer inspection that wasn’t a bad maiden at all, the third and fourth have both won since and rated 80+ and the second rated 106 went on to win a group 1 in Italy and before that placed third in the group 3 Oh So Sharp stakes and also Larwood who she meets today. Given the way she has progressed to this point I think she is well ahead of her current handicap mark. On her debut at Newbury she was hampered badly twice by the erratic second and would have been right in the mix at the line had she got a better run and on her next start at Newmarket never got a run when travelling easily in behind and was probably too far back anyway and whilst slightly under performing at Thirsk next time out she put that right at Pontefract (was behind I’ll Be Good at Thirsk who she subsequently demolished at Pontefract).
If all is well from her short break then this race looks set up perfectly for her with a good draw and plenty of tow in the race and she could have been given a gift into handicaps off 85.
2pt win
Kune Kune
6/1 general
1st
+12pts SP 13/2
Good work tb,i’m enjoying your input,its always good to read an explanation to ones thinking particularly when tipping winners.Well done now lets see an Ante-Post coup!
Kempton 5.05
I really like the look of this contest and it looks well shaped for a bet or two also. Sand Owl ran a good race at Pontefract last time out but I thought that run really illuminated her effectiveness at 5f. From stall 1 she ended up having to cross off the rail in rear to come wide into the straight and was travelling really strongly with under 2 furlongs to run and finished her race the best I have seen of her. Often she has been keen over 6f and is found out by stronger finishers, for my money, I want to see her in strong run 5 furlong races rather than 6f.
Mac Gille
Eoin is one of interest to me, tackling 7f last time out he simply didn’t finish his race off well enough in a competitive contest. This lad has never been short of speed and will welcome a drop back in trip to what his is optimum today. I find it easy to leave that run behind and previously he put up a strong performance at Goodwood when finishing 3/4 length 4th to Gentle Lord and on that type of show he’ll go very close today. He has a good gate in 4 and I’m hoping that they use it as he looks the most likely to go forward and if he does could find himself with a big advantage as some of his closer rivals are drawn poorly to the outside.
Another of a bit of interest was
Serena’s Pride
. A filly not short on ability she was just a little keen on a return from a 61 day absence last time out but travelled well into the final 1 ½ furlongs and only the 3rd that day was going any better (runs in the 2nd division after) once she was pushed for an effort she dropped away but after being disappointing on her previous run at Chester there was likely something not quite right that day to have taken her off the track for 61 days and for having had a run hopefully she’ll come on for that. When winning at Warwick earlier in the year in a good display I felt she could just go on from there having dropped to a feasible handicap mark, this filly was 4th in the 2010 Queen Mary and copped a tough official rating as a result which she has needed to come down to get competitive but having won at Warwick in June she showed she can still do it beyond her 2yo career. She’ll show up good speed from a low gate no doubt and if she settles better and is fitter for her last run she could be interesting at a price.
1pt win
Mac Gille Eoin
8/1 Ladbrokes, Betfred, Victor Chandler (bog)
2nd
1pt winSerena’s Pride
16/1 general
UP
Worked out quite as I expected accept for the winner whom I was quite quick to put a line through today! Mac Gille Eoin got on his lead but not for the first time around here hung off a true line near the break away, could be better fronting around Wolverhampton. Serena’s Pride certainly showed up good speed low in behind MGO but was keen in doing so, it’s worth noting when she won at Warwick she was strongly supported so perhaps the market will be a good gauge to her well being in the future, she would’t be out of place attempting 5f however. Sand Owl once again well and truly run out of things in a strong 6f handicap, keep an eye out for her over 5f she showed good speed again to lie close up on the pace and still going ok into the final 2 she didn’t finish.Good work tb,i’m enjoying your input,its always good to read an explanation to ones thinking particularly when tipping winners.Well done now lets see an Ante-Post coup!
Cheers Gord. You and your Ante-Post a mate. I’m a bit more selective Ante-Post I tend to wait a lot closer though plotting up runners in my ideas is part of my strategy! Last 3 ante-post bets were Chicago Grey, Zarkander and……. Delegator for the Golden Jubilee
Saturday
Haydock 2.30
1pt win
Aibrean
20/1 Ladbrokes,Stan James, Victor Chandler
UP
Write up in the featuresHaydock 1.55
2pt win
Jaunty Journey
12/1 general
Got lose before the start at Carlisle and sent out towards the fore done a lot of running that day! He jumped left handed most of the way and a return to a left handed track will certainly suit, he has gone well right handed before but winning runs have all come racing left handed. He’s got a lot of ability but hasn’t won as many races as he should have done, well handicapped from his last win over hurdles at Aintree in April this looks one of the easier tasks he has lined up for over fences carrying 10-11 at the bottom of the handicap.
Unseat Rider -2pts SP 8/1
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