November 8, 2011 at 12:21 #376701
Zorro De La Vega
UP -1pt SP 15/2November 9, 2011 at 10:54 #376877
Dr Red Eye looks a little over looked this morning in the market, he was a run away winner over a mile here on his last start, runners can quickly notch up sequences on this course and his record is 2,2,1 with plenty of potential to build on it further.
Dr Red Eye
17/2 Victor Chandler
UP -1pt SP 6/1November 10, 2011 at 11:07 #377068
Much like yesterday todays racing at Southwell certainly has a wide open feel to it, syphoning through the specialists, come back kings etc can make thoughts very cloudy.
Colourbearer may prove one to side with, he didn’t finish his race off well over 6f last time out after racing up wide with a fair pace, previously he had been a lot more convincing back at 5f when beating the aging Tabaret. The drop in trip looks a big positive and a distance he could just excel at further. His record at 5f reads, (most recent first) 184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11 as opposed to 18.104.22.168.6 at 6f and has recorded a victory on his only start at the track when a 2 3/4 length winner back in August. They won’t hang around either with pace all over the gates so he should get things run to suit and this typical slow burning Bradley horse is what he does well with at this level and he has more races in him.
8/1 Stanjames and BetFred
-1pt SP 9/2November 10, 2011 at 15:45 #377118
Running Total +20ptsNovember 11, 2011 at 11:49 #377266
13/2 Skybet, William Hill
-1pt SP 3/1November 12, 2011 at 09:25 #377459
Reve De Sivola
Le Roi Rouge
UP -1pt SP 20/1!November 12, 2011 at 11:21 #377484
I’m surprised to see such a difference in
turf and aw ratings, last time he was on the polly track he dead heated with Fanunalter in a listed event and at the time broke the course record. He has record three wins from three runs on the pollytrack, though he has similarly high standards of form on the turf it could be worth chancing he is just a bit happier on the pollytrack and off a handicap rating of 94 he looks very interesting on a surface he might just be that bit more effective on.
also looks over priced, getting up very late last time out at Nottingham he will be well suited by a return to the polly track and meets many rivals here on better terms for previous meetings despite him being far more effective on this surface. He put in a top effort at Kempton chasing home Red Gulch on his last start on the pollytrack ahead of three of today’s rivals and may just be able to stretch out a bit more improvement for the surface. Stall three may not prove to be a bad thing with the stalls to the outside and Nazreef in gate 1 he could get an ideal tow through the race.
Both look value for their chance in an open market.
+12pts SP 9/2November 12, 2011 at 17:33 #377558
Running Total +27ptsNovember 14, 2011 at 11:32 #377811
was tackling 14f for the first time on his last start and it looked to stretch him just a little too far. Held up to rear as the race evolved going into the final 3f the response was limited and turning in he was beaten.
He’d been an eye catching closer over 10f at Kempton previously when travelling well on the sharp inner course. When turning there was plenty to do to catch the first two who had turned into the straight with a big positional advantage, added to the fact he got blocked in his run he done well to cut the finishing position down to two lengths and with a clearer run is value for another length at least. Returning to 12f today is a big plus given his last two starts and that his last two runs at 12f he has won, coincidently both were at this course. He has won six times at this course and though he isn’t the progressive force of old he has the ability and given a likely strong pace today he could just cause an upset.
-1pt SP 14/1November 16, 2011 at 10:58 #378127
looks to hold a good chance. Outpaced badly at Newmarket in a decent fillies nursery behind subsequent listed winner Pimpernel she’ll have a good chance of getting back on track in this weaker race returning to a mile. Pushed along before half way she may not have always been at home over the course but encouragingly she managed to keep on and finish close with the remainder of the field (two fillies pulled well clear and look progressive). She’d been making nice progress to that point in maidens, when getting beat by Ittasal on her only pollytrack start looked like she would benefit by racing at a mile and then confirmed this by winning next time out at Sandown in another improved effort, maybe fortunate to win that day given seconds finish but she was well clear of the third anyway. So it comes as no surprise she was outpaced in a better race dropped in trip last time out and returning to a mile in this easier race she makes a lot of interest, allied to the fact she is lightly raced and unexposed on this surface there could just be more to come from this filly.
15/2 William Hills, 7/1 general
1st +7.5pts SP 9/2November 16, 2011 at 12:18 #378133
The more I think about it I just can’t resist a little tickle on this runner. An exceptionally open contest and the market is tight and there is no value to be had with the front of it, Regeneration was a runner I was hoping may just sneak in bigger than his current price but no joy.
certainly won’t be the worst 50/1 shot you’ll back, he is a quirky sod but he has some good form in the book, none better than when he was hugely eye catching at Ascot in May travelling strongly through the race in rear tracking all the way into the final furlong none other than Deacon Blues but couldn’t go with that horse when he went and changed gear, which in hindsight is understandable, but kept on and ran well to the line. Amongst that races as well as Deacon Blues was Striking Spirit, Imperial Guest, Edinburgh Knight, Dungannon and Son Of The Cat all putting in good performances and looks as strong handicap form as you could ask for.
He has been placed off 90 on the AW when running a close 2nd and only having had 3 starts on the polly track it wouldn’t be unbelievable to see him make use of a rating of 83. He has been off the track since June and he didn’t follow up his Ascot run granted but I can find excuses for those runs enough so that I wouldn’t have him as a no hoper in this race and the stable have had a couple of winners in the last couple of weeks also so some positives for him coming into this.
Running Total +32.5ptsNovember 16, 2011 at 16:22 #378152
14/1 Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler
7/1 Stan James, Victor Chandler
Fancied this race a bit more as the market kept shaping, wanted to be against the front three certainly thought Absa Lutte would come home ahead of Estonia, not to be!November 17, 2011 at 11:40 #378235
A good looking Nursery to get stuck into.
hasn’t been seen since running at Ayr under some pretty testing conditions, she struggled to get involved that day and stopped pretty quickly and I’d be certain that she failed to act on the heavy ground. She had previously been highly impressive at Pontefract making her maiden look like she was beating a bunch of selling platers, showing speed from a low draw to race prominently she was in front by half way going to fast for them and she lengthened away impressively. However, on closer inspection that wasn’t a bad maiden at all, the third and fourth have both won since and rated 80+ and the second rated 106 went on to win a group 1 in Italy and before that placed third in the group 3 Oh So Sharp stakes and also Larwood who she meets today. Given the way she has progressed to this point I think she is well ahead of her current handicap mark. On her debut at Newbury she was hampered badly twice by the erratic second and would have been right in the mix at the line had she got a better run and on her next start at Newmarket never got a run when travelling easily in behind and was probably too far back anyway and whilst slightly under performing at Thirsk next time out she put that right at Pontefract (was behind I’ll Be Good at Thirsk who she subsequently demolished at Pontefract).
If all is well from her short break then this race looks set up perfectly for her with a good draw and plenty of tow in the race and she could have been given a gift into handicaps off 85.
+12pts SP 13/2November 17, 2011 at 18:16 #378274
SP +23ptsNovember 17, 2011 at 22:41 #378300KINGFISHERMember
- Total Posts 1511
Good work tb,i’m enjoying your input,its always good to read an explanation to ones thinking particularly when tipping winners.Well done now lets see an Ante-Post coup!
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