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Exeter 2.30
Betabob
still looks good for a win off his handicap mark over fences. He ran into a very impressive winner for the level last time out in the unexposed Educated Evans who won with seemingly plenty to spare. Held up well off the pace he was brought into contention late as is his usual way and only finished 3 1/2 lengths in behind the second horse in the process running on past the pace setting Fighting Chance. That looks a run to take encouragement from on his first run back off a break and they shouldn’t hang around here and with hopefully enough pace in the field he should be able to get himself into contention from rear with a late run.
1pt win
Betabob
8/1
2nd
-1pt SP 9/1
Kempton 2.35*
This is a tight looking handicap and you can give chances to a few but
Top Smart
looks to have been a little over looked in the market this morning. It’s well worth forgiving a run last time out at Plumpton, he had blundered over the 11th and then on the run to the 12th lost his action badly at the bottom of the steep downhill section in the back straight when still well in touch before the race had really evolved . He was steadily progressive last season getting better with every run and started to make sharp progress once into handicaps and closed his season off well with a career best at Haydock Park over the fixed brush hurdles giving firmly the impression 3 miles was well on the radar. Presumably all is well after the last run and this young progressive horse can get back on track and looks very good value for his chance.
2pt win
Top Smart
10/1 Totesport, Betfred
3rd
-2pts SP 15/2
Finalist
hasn’t had things quite go her way on her latest two outings, dropped in well off the pace on both occasions over 5f around this course she has been given the near impossible task of making up close to 10 lengths both times, it’s her first attempt of the two that makes her most interesting. Dropped in well off the pace she ended up well behind going into the turn and had a lot to do once they turned in for home but finished really strongly and closed down the gap to 3 1/4 lengths making ground all the time on Mount McLeod and giving the impression she would certainly appreciate a step up to 6f as her stamina came into play late on. On her latest outing she was similarly un suited when dropped in from a wide draw this time, probably even more so when comparison is made to her first run. I keep a video archive on my computer and comparing her last two runs in split screen they simply went slower early in her latest run which further hindered her ability to stay on and effectively quickening from the top of the home straight making it pretty much impossible for her to win. This step up to 6f today looks long overdue, she has previously raced over 6f at this course back in June in her maiden and for the large part of the race went well closer up to the pace than she has been ridden recently eventually finishing in third and it doesn’t look a bad maiden for the standard, winner rated 79, the second finish fourth in the group 2 July Stakes and the fourth placed third in his last start off 67. She still has to negotiate a wide draw today in stall 10 but crucially this step up in trip will bring the best out of her and in what isn’t a great race with those ahead in the market looking vulnerable she looks a good bet.
2pt win
Finalist
17/2 Victor Chandler, 8/1 general
2nd
Rossetti
could be worth a small chance for James Fanshawe in the 7.10. Not sighted lass time out at Newmarket off a break it’s hard to find an excuse for that run alone but back on the polly track this runner might just be good for his chance today. When last seen at Warwick things didn’t go his way, dropping in off a steady pace at a notoriously difficult track to come from behind, especially over 7f, he was closing all the time and was going on strongly as the line but never able to quite on terms with the advantageous front runner. On his previous run to that at Kempton he was a really taking winner finishing in a good time from back off the pace over today’s course and distance. He is 1/1 on polly track and the type his trainer does well with on this surface, in 2011 alone he has a 24% strike rate at the track and very recently trained the winner of a competitive conditions event Primaeval. Lightly raced and unexposed on this surface there could still be a little more to come from this horse.
1pt win
Rossetti
14/1 General
UP
More bloody placers! Bit annoyed I didn’t come back and recommend Iron Step had him in as 6/1 favourite for this and got myself involved on betfair, apologies!Newbury 2.10
This is probably as far as I would like to see
Be Definite
running, he travelled strongly last time out at Chepstow over 16.5f and only the fast improving Renard (win 3/3 since) was going better down to the first of five in the home straight, his cause was not helped by a blunder over four from home though he wouldn’t have beaten the winner but still managed to come nicely clear of the remainder for second and that run could have just brought him along nicely for today and he still strikes me as potentially well handicapped off just 112.
1pt win
Be Definite
9/1 Victor Chandler, Stan James, Ladbrokes
2nd
Wolverhampton 7.40There are couple of runners that make interest in this field.
Islesman
travelled well last time out amongst mid division off a steady pace and still going well into the final two he still had the task of cutting down the first pair home who had raced 1 and 2 through out and he was doing a good job of it close home before getting the door firmly slammed in his face inside the final furlong and would have gone close come the line. This was just his second run back from a short break over the summer and that run was highly encouraging also keeping on from a long way back behind Loyalty and also Tarooq, who he meets again today. But he looks to have come along again since their meeting and still looks worth following on the pollytrack with potentially a little more to
come.1pt win
Islesman
9/1 William hill, 8/1 general
UP
Totally Ours
also looks worth a bit of interest, she had a wide draw last time out at Kempton Park and probably did a bit too much running early through the first couple of furlongs to get a prominent position. The first three home all dropped in well off the pace and came through with late runs and as they did she just pottered home gently for fifth place. She was a good winner here on her only course start four runs ago when giving a sound beating to Tarooq and she still relatively unexposed on the pollytrack and could be capable of adding to her tally still. She isn’t ideally drawn this time around in stall 8 but it will be an easier draw than a wide draw round Kempton’s inner track as she had last time out and with the drop in trip to her furthest winning distance today she looks interesting at a big price.
1pt win
Totally Ours
11/1 bet365
UP
UpdateFurther 1pt win
Islesman
11/1 William Hill, 10/1 widely available
Newbury 3.45
A cracking looking race, at one of the weights we have the never from favourite Fistral Beach and at the other end the unexposed Coup Royale. Both undoubtedly are talented individuals. Equally talented a horse though is
Crescent Island
. Never far from some kind of drama this horse has been called some names but he has a lot under the bonnet and when he gets it right he can look very good. Last time out he kept things controversal when getting one all wrong in the back straight and giving Sam Twiston-Davies little chance of staying on board, amazingly he did manage to cling on but couldn’t get back into the driving seat proper and had to pull him up. This drop in trip looks a big posititive when he last raced back at 2 1/2 he was very impressive rousting a competitive field at Wetherby in Feburary just four runs ago and if he doesn’t get himself under pressure early with errors he’ll be able to show his best back at this his optimum trip.
Crescent Island
1pt win 16/1 general
2nd
Other betsNewbury
2.05 –
Raya Star
1pt win 9/1 general
3rd
With a lot of runners having come in placed this week Crescent Island getting nutted in the final few yards was hardly surprising! Thought he had it sewn up!Will do a month update soon.
Month update
Runners 49
Winners 5
Win S/R 10.20%Placed 20
Place S/R 40.82%Average Advised Price – 14.47
Average Starting Price – 12.74Advised Price P/L
Level Stakes P/L
Starting Price P/L
Since the last winner 5 have been second and and 8 in total placed so hopefully a couple will go the other way soon!All in the all though a decent start. The intention of this thread is just to hopefully give people decent priced horses to back that have been over looked for one reason or another across a variety of race types and as well as making a profit hopefully we can have a bit of fun with it. Races types have varied from 5f sprints up to 3 1/2 mile chases from sand to mud (maybe I’m the Brian Ellison of tipping
). I’m aiming to keep prices above 6/1 and hopefully I’ll get a bit more chances runners up than I have as there are a couple of nice ones I’ve have had that haven’t made it to print!Lingfield 2.50
An awesome race for a Tuesday on the pollytrack.
Cochabamba, Secret Witness and Five Star Junior all lined up last time out in a listed event just over two weeks ago with the first two named finishing close together ahead of Five Star Junior. However it is
Five Star Junior
who’s run looks of the most interest. He had travelled well to rear as he often does and when turning in for a challenge was forced to come quite wide, not usually something of concern at Lingfield but if you watch the head on videos he was repeatedly pushed wider and wider in the home straight by Total Gallery before getting shortened up as Global City started to motor down the outside. All the time his rivals today had turned in and straightened up for home and were into stride for a run for home well before he could mount a meaningful challenge. He had put in a big run at Dundalk previously, dropping in from stall 1 and giving the first two home who had raced in the front placings through out a fair head start and he eventually ended up switching his run out to the centre and finished well and probably a bit unfortunate not to get up. I think back into a handicap today with plenty enough pace on he’ll go a lot closer than he was able to get last time out.
Piscean
also looks of interest in the same race, keeping on off the rear at Doncaster last time out he was never nearer than at the finish but he is a far better horse on this surface and certainly at this track. Though the majority of his winning has been done at 5f he showed himself capable at today’s distance a couple of times last year winning at Wolverhampton and when finishing well over today’s course and distance on his last of three starts at this track which he is 1,1,5. He is a horse with plenty of ability though he can often be quite keen and over this longer distance it is always the worry that he won’t settle but if he does the longer he gets carried into this race the more likely he’ll able to finish off and pick them up late on and he looks over priced.
1pt win
Five Star Junior
10/1 Stan James, Paddy Power
1pt win
Piscean
10/1 Ladbrokes
Lingfield 2.55
An open affair in which it may pay to side with an outsider, more specifically,
Quasi Congaree
. His race was over quickly last time out after his rein broke in the first third of the race. I don’t think he ran too badly when at Goodwood two runs ago in what was a better race than this. He had a high draw and having to race under the stands rail he looked at a disadvantage as the pace was far side to centre and could never quite get into it finishing 4 1/4 lengths back in 7th. Positively Elna Bright raced with him under the stands side that day finishing 6th and has come out to win subsequently on the polly track. He doesn’t have a lot to find here based on his better turf form over the summer and with Cadeaux Pearl and Sir Geoffrey drawn low there is bound to be a strong pace on upfront which will suit him finishing from off the pace. Also being just as effective under today’s conditions with a course win under his belt there is no reason to suggest he can’t get involved in the finish.
1pt win
Quasi Congaree
20/1, Ladbrokes, Stan James
Cheltenham 1.20
Daves Dream
looks to hold a cracking chance today dropped back in trip. I was completely against him when running in the Paddy Power simply under the basis that he just doesn’t get 2 ½ and is far more effective running back at 2 miles and close to it. He was still looking like he was going well before the run to 3 out close up on the pace in the Paddy Power and unsurprisingly after 3 out emptied out. Interestingly he runs in a tongue tie today for the first time suggesting connections feel it’s more his breathing rather than stamina that has been getting the better of him and he has had a wind op in the past so the fitting the tongue tie might help him out today. Today is the first time he has raced back two miles since easily putting away a handicap here last November and given his liking for decent ground and The Prestbury Park track he has little going against him today. A lot is made about his fresh record but it’s worth remembering he won the Imperial Cup at Sandown over hurdles off the back of a 21 day lay off so there should be no fears of a return to the track after just 28 days. It’s likely his stable mate Tanks For That will be left with front running duties and he’ll be close to the pace which should be an advantage, I don’t see this being set up for the likes of Rileyev, Havingotascoobydo and Oiseau De Nuit and if anyone is going to get to Tanks For That it will be his stable mate Daves Dream under the excellent apprentice Jeremiah McGrath.
2pt win
Daves Dream
10/1 Stan James
UR
Other Bets2.30 – 1pt win
Great Endeavour
17/2 Victor Chandler
UP3.05 – 2pt win
Brampour
7/1 Stan James
UP -2pts SP 13/23.05 – 1pt win
Roudoudou Ville
12/1 Stan James
3rd
Got a few more to go back and update yet will do so in next couple of days. Pretty rough day for the runners today, had also backed Tanks For That on blue and was feeling pretty confident watching the race when both he and DD departed. Great Endeavour would have gone close minus a huge blunder and to get collared late on with Roudoudou Ville just sums up my day!!!! 2.15
Down the road from me today the 2.15 (Hereford) looks an interesting race. Maraafeq is my chief interest in this race, Venetia Williams runners have been slow burners so far this season just 1/40 winning on their first run in October and November on re-appearance and only 2/18 went on to win next time out. Maraafeq has certainly looked like he would benefit from both runs so far and today could just be spot on for this run. Last time at Ludlow he certainly looked like he was on his way back, pushed along in the back straight to keep tabs with runners as the race heated up he made a couple of mistakes losing ground and looked completely out of contention turning in facing up to the last four fences but he managed to make encouraging headway until hitting 2 out and when on the flat after the last finished strongly to catch the trailer of the front quartet. An extra 300 yards and some dig in the ground will certainly be in favour today and if he can keep mistakes to a minimum he is very well handicapped to best to win this race today and must go close.2pt win Maraafeq 16/1 Coral
Brought Down -2pts SP 12/1
Catterick 1.50
Dystonia’s Revenge
looks to have been over looked this morning on his chances off the back of a good looking effort over course and distance just 13 days ago when almost springing a surprise at 66/1. Left to get jumping in rear he was always travelling well and with plenty of ground still to make up over the last 3 kept making good headway to challenge at the last putting in a good leap to lead on landing and done nothing wrong in the finish keeping on well to be narrowly denied at the line. He is only a 6 year old and is lightly raced under rules and unexposed in handicaps and with plenty in his favour again today he looks like he could keep improving. I wasn’t sold on the strength of that race with Monsieur Jordain and Quel Ballistic and to date QB has developed an uncanny trick of looking un lucky running on late and looks well worth taking a chance against him today.
1pt win
Dystonia’s Revenge
12/1 general
1st
Rather fortuitous it must be said but I’ve had enough of my share of ‘bad luck’ on recent bets! Didn’t see what happened with the fallers as just caught a glimpse of them coming away from the fence so hope all are ok!Newbury
12.50Wyck Hill
looks a chaser worth sticking to. He fell here after three fences last time out but he still looks open to a lot more improvement. I thought his handicap win at Market Rasen was full of promise, sent out on a lead he wasn’t left alone upfront and had to go hard from pillar to post and looked if anything to be disadvantaged when his only challenger at the time Mister Hyde came down 2 out as he appeared to idle when left clear allowing the second to get into it. Jumping slowly at the last he was headed but picked up again well on the run in to lead at the post and the second in my opinion was flattered to get so close. I think an extra furlong and a bit more of a test will bring out even more in him and he looks well worth a chance here to keep improving
1pt
Wyck Hill
7/1 (bog) Victor Chandler
2nd
Lingfield
3.15Bennelong
doesn’t have the most consistent of profiles but he has shown significant improvement since moving to Richard Rowe, but more importantly since stepped up in trip. He’s been moved around a fair bit with this being his sixth trainer but he managed to land a 10 furlong handicap in September at Brighton and to that point had never raced beyond a mile and has since landed a 9 ½ furlong handicap at Wolverhampton and was at his most impressive two runs ago when winning at 12f on his first attempt at Kempton. Always travelling well he headed into the final furlong seemingly full of running and when asked for his effort found plenty to win by a length. He was disappointing when not featuring on his latest outing at Lingfield but in customary fashion he could well bounce back from there and this looks an easier race than last time and I think he could still be good enough on his run at Kempton.
1pt win
Bennelong
20/1 bet365
UP -1pt SP 20/1Catterick 1.50
1pt win
Dystonia’s Revenge
12/1 general
1st
Rather fortuitous it must be said but I’ve had enough of my share of ‘bad luck’ on recent bets! Didn’t see what happened with the fallers as just caught a glimpse of them coming away from the fence so hope all are ok!Well done tb,who cares if your fortune is someonelses misfortune,its swings and roundabouts at the end of the day!
Catterick 1.50
1pt win
Dystonia’s Revenge
12/1 general
1st
Rather fortuitous it must be said but I’ve had enough of my share of ‘bad luck’ on recent bets! Didn’t see what happened with the fallers as just caught a glimpse of them coming away from the fence so hope all are ok!Well done tb,who cares if your fortune is someonelses misfortune,its swings and roundabouts at the end of the day!
Very true Gord, I’m happy enough to cash in don’t worry, horses were OK so that’s the main thing, wouldn’t feel to good gloating in face of a horse coming to any kind of harm is all.
Though disappointed I didn’t come back and suggest a top up!!!
). I’m aiming to keep prices above 6/1 and hopefully I’ll get a bit more chances runners up than I have as there are a couple of nice ones I’ve have had that haven’t made it to print!
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