November 18, 2011 at 12:32 #378351
I really like the look of this contest and it looks well shaped for a bet or two also. Sand Owl ran a good race at Pontefract last time out but I thought that run really illuminated her effectiveness at 5f. From stall 1 she ended up having to cross off the rail in rear to come wide into the straight and was travelling really strongly with under 2 furlongs to run and finished her race the best I have seen of her. Often she has been keen over 6f and is found out by stronger finishers, for my money, I want to see her in strong run 5 furlong races rather than 6f.
Eoin is one of interest to me, tackling 7f last time out he simply didn’t finish his race off well enough in a competitive contest. This lad has never been short of speed and will welcome a drop back in trip to what his is optimum today. I find it easy to leave that run behind and previously he put up a strong performance at Goodwood when finishing 3/4 length 4th to Gentle Lord and on that type of show he’ll go very close today. He has a good gate in 4 and I’m hoping that they use it as he looks the most likely to go forward and if he does could find himself with a big advantage as some of his closer rivals are drawn poorly to the outside.
Another of a bit of interest was
. A filly not short on ability she was just a little keen on a return from a 61 day absence last time out but travelled well into the final 1 ½ furlongs and only the 3rd that day was going any better (runs in the 2nd division after) once she was pushed for an effort she dropped away but after being disappointing on her previous run at Chester there was likely something not quite right that day to have taken her off the track for 61 days and for having had a run hopefully she’ll come on for that. When winning at Warwick earlier in the year in a good display I felt she could just go on from there having dropped to a feasible handicap mark, this filly was 4th in the 2010 Queen Mary and copped a tough official rating as a result which she has needed to come down to get competitive but having won at Warwick in June she showed she can still do it beyond her 2yo career. She’ll show up good speed from a low gate no doubt and if she settles better and is fitter for her last run she could be interesting at a price.
Mac Gille Eoin
8/1 Ladbrokes, Betfred, Victor Chandler (bog)
Worked out quite as I expected accept for the winner whom I was quite quick to put a line through today! Mac Gille Eoin got on his lead but not for the first time around here hung off a true line near the break away, could be better fronting around Wolverhampton. Serena’s Pride certainly showed up good speed low in behind MGO but was keen in doing so, it’s worth noting when she won at Warwick she was strongly supported so perhaps the market will be a good gauge to her well being in the future, she would’t be out of place attempting 5f however. Sand Owl once again well and truly run out of things in a strong 6f handicap, keep an eye out for her over 5f she showed good speed again to lie close up on the pace and still going ok into the final 2 she didn’t finish.November 18, 2011 at 12:42 #378352
Good work tb,i’m enjoying your input,its always good to read an explanation to ones thinking particularly when tipping winners.Well done now lets see an Ante-Post coup!
Cheers Gord. You and your Ante-Post a mate. I’m a bit more selective Ante-Post I tend to wait a lot closer though plotting up runners in my ideas is part of my strategy! Last 3 ante-post bets were Chicago Grey, Zarkander and……. Delegator for the Golden JubileeNovember 18, 2011 at 21:43 #378432
20/1 Ladbrokes,Stan James, Victor Chandler
Write up in the featuresNovember 19, 2011 at 12:19 #378564
Got lose before the start at Carlisle and sent out towards the fore done a lot of running that day! He jumped left handed most of the way and a return to a left handed track will certainly suit, he has gone well right handed before but winning runs have all come racing left handed. He’s got a lot of ability but hasn’t won as many races as he should have done, well handicapped from his last win over hurdles at Aintree in April this looks one of the easier tasks he has lined up for over fences carrying 10-11 at the bottom of the handicap.
Unseat Rider -2pts SP 8/1November 20, 2011 at 11:16 #378797
still looks good for a win off his handicap mark over fences. He ran into a very impressive winner for the level last time out in the unexposed Educated Evans who won with seemingly plenty to spare. Held up well off the pace he was brought into contention late as is his usual way and only finished 3 1/2 lengths in behind the second horse in the process running on past the pace setting Fighting Chance. That looks a run to take encouragement from on his first run back off a break and they shouldn’t hang around here and with hopefully enough pace in the field he should be able to get himself into contention from rear with a late run.
-1pt SP 9/1November 21, 2011 at 10:59 #378962
This is a tight looking handicap and you can give chances to a few but
looks to have been a little over looked in the market this morning. It’s well worth forgiving a run last time out at Plumpton, he had blundered over the 11th and then on the run to the 12th lost his action badly at the bottom of the steep downhill section in the back straight when still well in touch before the race had really evolved . He was steadily progressive last season getting better with every run and started to make sharp progress once into handicaps and closed his season off well with a career best at Haydock Park over the fixed brush hurdles giving firmly the impression 3 miles was well on the radar. Presumably all is well after the last run and this young progressive horse can get back on track and looks very good value for his chance.
10/1 Totesport, Betfred
-2pts SP 15/2November 23, 2011 at 11:05 #379305
UP -1pt SP 10/1November 24, 2011 at 09:53 #379424
hasn’t had things quite go her way on her latest two outings, dropped in well off the pace on both occasions over 5f around this course she has been given the near impossible task of making up close to 10 lengths both times, it’s her first attempt of the two that makes her most interesting. Dropped in well off the pace she ended up well behind going into the turn and had a lot to do once they turned in for home but finished really strongly and closed down the gap to 3 1/4 lengths making ground all the time on Mount McLeod and giving the impression she would certainly appreciate a step up to 6f as her stamina came into play late on. On her latest outing she was similarly un suited when dropped in from a wide draw this time, probably even more so when comparison is made to her first run. I keep a video archive on my computer and comparing her last two runs in split screen they simply went slower early in her latest run which further hindered her ability to stay on and effectively quickening from the top of the home straight making it pretty much impossible for her to win. This step up to 6f today looks long overdue, she has previously raced over 6f at this course back in June in her maiden and for the large part of the race went well closer up to the pace than she has been ridden recently eventually finishing in third and it doesn’t look a bad maiden for the standard, winner rated 79, the second finish fourth in the group 2 July Stakes and the fourth placed third in his last start off 67. She still has to negotiate a wide draw today in stall 10 but crucially this step up in trip will bring the best out of her and in what isn’t a great race with those ahead in the market looking vulnerable she looks a good bet.
17/2 Victor Chandler, 8/1 general
could be worth a small chance for James Fanshawe in the 7.10. Not sighted lass time out at Newmarket off a break it’s hard to find an excuse for that run alone but back on the polly track this runner might just be good for his chance today. When last seen at Warwick things didn’t go his way, dropping in off a steady pace at a notoriously difficult track to come from behind, especially over 7f, he was closing all the time and was going on strongly as the line but never able to quite on terms with the advantageous front runner. On his previous run to that at Kempton he was a really taking winner finishing in a good time from back off the pace over today’s course and distance. He is 1/1 on polly track and the type his trainer does well with on this surface, in 2011 alone he has a 24% strike rate at the track and very recently trained the winner of a competitive conditions event Primaeval. Lightly raced and unexposed on this surface there could still be a little more to come from this horse.
More bloody placers! Bit annoyed I didn’t come back and recommend Iron Step had him in as 6/1 favourite for this and got myself involved on betfair, apologies!November 25, 2011 at 09:23 #379526
This is probably as far as I would like to see
running, he travelled strongly last time out at Chepstow over 16.5f and only the fast improving Renard (win 3/3 since) was going better down to the first of five in the home straight, his cause was not helped by a blunder over four from home though he wouldn’t have beaten the winner but still managed to come nicely clear of the remainder for second and that run could have just brought him along nicely for today and he still strikes me as potentially well handicapped off just 112.
9/1 Victor Chandler, Stan James, Ladbrokes
There are couple of runners that make interest in this field.
travelled well last time out amongst mid division off a steady pace and still going well into the final two he still had the task of cutting down the first pair home who had raced 1 and 2 through out and he was doing a good job of it close home before getting the door firmly slammed in his face inside the final furlong and would have gone close come the line. This was just his second run back from a short break over the summer and that run was highly encouraging also keeping on from a long way back behind Loyalty and also Tarooq, who he meets again today. But he looks to have come along again since their meeting and still looks worth following on the pollytrack with potentially a little more to
9/1 William hill, 8/1 general
also looks worth a bit of interest, she had a wide draw last time out at Kempton Park and probably did a bit too much running early through the first couple of furlongs to get a prominent position. The first three home all dropped in well off the pace and came through with late runs and as they did she just pottered home gently for fifth place. She was a good winner here on her only course start four runs ago when giving a sound beating to Tarooq and she still relatively unexposed on the pollytrack and could be capable of adding to her tally still. She isn’t ideally drawn this time around in stall 8 but it will be an easier draw than a wide draw round Kempton’s inner track as she had last time out and with the drop in trip to her furthest winning distance today she looks interesting at a big price.
Further 1pt win
11/1 William Hill, 10/1 widely availableNovember 26, 2011 at 00:26 #379650
-1pt SP 5/1November 26, 2011 at 09:50 #379704
A cracking looking race, at one of the weights we have the never from favourite Fistral Beach and at the other end the unexposed Coup Royale. Both undoubtedly are talented individuals. Equally talented a horse though is
. Never far from some kind of drama this horse has been called some names but he has a lot under the bonnet and when he gets it right he can look very good. Last time out he kept things controversal when getting one all wrong in the back straight and giving Sam Twiston-Davies little chance of staying on board, amazingly he did manage to cling on but couldn’t get back into the driving seat proper and had to pull him up. This drop in trip looks a big posititive when he last raced back at 2 1/2 he was very impressive rousting a competitive field at Wetherby in Feburary just four runs ago and if he doesn’t get himself under pressure early with errors he’ll be able to show his best back at this his optimum trip.
1pt win 16/1 general
1pt win 9/1 general
With a lot of runners having come in placed this week Crescent Island getting nutted in the final few yards was hardly surprising! Thought he had it sewn up!
Will do a month update soon.November 28, 2011 at 11:02 #380003
Win S/R 10.20%
Place S/R 40.82%
Average Advised Price – 14.47
Average Starting Price – 12.74
Advised Price P/L
Level Stakes P/L
Starting Price P/L
Since the last winner 5 have been second and and 8 in total placed so hopefully a couple will go the other way soon!
All in the all though a decent start. The intention of this thread is just to hopefully give people decent priced horses to back that have been over looked for one reason or another across a variety of race types and as well as making a profit hopefully we can have a bit of fun with it. Races types have varied from 5f sprints up to 3 1/2 mile chases from sand to mud (maybe I’m the Brian Ellison of tipping ). I’m aiming to keep prices above 6/1 and hopefully I’ll get a bit more chances runners up than I have as there are a couple of nice ones I’ve have had that haven’t made it to print!November 29, 2011 at 09:56 #380140
An awesome race for a Tuesday on the pollytrack.
Cochabamba, Secret Witness and Five Star Junior all lined up last time out in a listed event just over two weeks ago with the first two named finishing close together ahead of Five Star Junior. However it is
Five Star Junior
who’s run looks of the most interest. He had travelled well to rear as he often does and when turning in for a challenge was forced to come quite wide, not usually something of concern at Lingfield but if you watch the head on videos he was repeatedly pushed wider and wider in the home straight by Total Gallery before getting shortened up as Global City started to motor down the outside. All the time his rivals today had turned in and straightened up for home and were into stride for a run for home well before he could mount a meaningful challenge. He had put in a big run at Dundalk previously, dropping in from stall 1 and giving the first two home who had raced in the front placings through out a fair head start and he eventually ended up switching his run out to the centre and finished well and probably a bit unfortunate not to get up. I think back into a handicap today with plenty enough pace on he’ll go a lot closer than he was able to get last time out.
also looks of interest in the same race, keeping on off the rear at Doncaster last time out he was never nearer than at the finish but he is a far better horse on this surface and certainly at this track. Though the majority of his winning has been done at 5f he showed himself capable at today’s distance a couple of times last year winning at Wolverhampton and when finishing well over today’s course and distance on his last of three starts at this track which he is 1,1,5. He is a horse with plenty of ability though he can often be quite keen and over this longer distance it is always the worry that he won’t settle but if he does the longer he gets carried into this race the more likely he’ll able to finish off and pick them up late on and he looks over priced.
Five Star Junior
10/1 Stan James, Paddy Power
10/1 LadbrokesDecember 2, 2011 at 09:57 #380614
An open affair in which it may pay to side with an outsider, more specifically,
. His race was over quickly last time out after his rein broke in the first third of the race. I don’t think he ran too badly when at Goodwood two runs ago in what was a better race than this. He had a high draw and having to race under the stands rail he looked at a disadvantage as the pace was far side to centre and could never quite get into it finishing 4 1/4 lengths back in 7th. Positively Elna Bright raced with him under the stands side that day finishing 6th and has come out to win subsequently on the polly track. He doesn’t have a lot to find here based on his better turf form over the summer and with Cadeaux Pearl and Sir Geoffrey drawn low there is bound to be a strong pace on upfront which will suit him finishing from off the pace. Also being just as effective under today’s conditions with a course win under his belt there is no reason to suggest he can’t get involved in the finish.
20/1, Ladbrokes, Stan JamesDecember 10, 2011 at 11:45 #381921
looks to hold a cracking chance today dropped back in trip. I was completely against him when running in the Paddy Power simply under the basis that he just doesn’t get 2 ½ and is far more effective running back at 2 miles and close to it. He was still looking like he was going well before the run to 3 out close up on the pace in the Paddy Power and unsurprisingly after 3 out emptied out. Interestingly he runs in a tongue tie today for the first time suggesting connections feel it’s more his breathing rather than stamina that has been getting the better of him and he has had a wind op in the past so the fitting the tongue tie might help him out today. Today is the first time he has raced back two miles since easily putting away a handicap here last November and given his liking for decent ground and The Prestbury Park track he has little going against him today. A lot is made about his fresh record but it’s worth remembering he won the Imperial Cup at Sandown over hurdles off the back of a 21 day lay off so there should be no fears of a return to the track after just 28 days. It’s likely his stable mate Tanks For That will be left with front running duties and he’ll be close to the pace which should be an advantage, I don’t see this being set up for the likes of Rileyev, Havingotascoobydo and Oiseau De Nuit and if anyone is going to get to Tanks For That it will be his stable mate Daves Dream under the excellent apprentice Jeremiah McGrath.
10/1 Stan James
2.30 – 1pt win
17/2 Victor Chandler
3.05 – 2pt win
7/1 Stan James
UP -2pts SP 13/2
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