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Yeah I agree about Mars, he was a really odd choice to run in the Guineas considering he was always touted as a derby prospect after his first run at Dundalk. Usually I am big fan of AOB, but I actually feel like this horse is not being given the chance to reach his full potential simply because there are too many other horses in the yard. Terrible hold up rides in the 2000 guineas and then again in the Derby. I hope he’ll show his true colours given a more forward ride.
Somebody mentioned on this forum a while back, that Ballydoyle were looking to try and bag Cristoforo Columbo a G1 this season because he was by Henrythenavigator, a young stallion who needed some eye catching results in order to catch his big break. Hence it would make sense keeping him away from a better prospect in the same yard (and yet another Galileo, who hardly needs any more advertising as a stallion!).
Well Aidan sure did not know which one would win the Derby this year!! And look at Talent for Ralph Becket, Hughsie thought she was Slow at home. Some horses just never show it unless they’re on the racecourse.
Having said that your point is a good one. Maybe Magician just was not ready at that time of year. 2000 guineas at G1 level without a prep race is a big ask, look how many runs Dawn Approach had as a 2yo, and even Henry ran Frankel in a prep race. Probably just not forward enough for the race. Nothing about his 2yo career suggested that Magician would be a top G1 miler. He came on a lot at Chester.
If Magician was/is the stable number one, it is a bit surprising that they did not let him run in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. The race was only six days earlier than when he ran at Chester and his Curragh 2000 Guineas win would suggest he had the speed to be competitive in Dawn Approach’s race. Certainly, the ones O’Brien did send hardly looked that likely before the race and although a couple of them ran respectably, you would back Magician over them at that trip now. After the Chester trials it was stated that Ruler Of The World was the true mile and a half horse over Magician and I expected the latter might turn up in the French Derby. Perhaps they were concerned about taking on Intello and therefore decided to go to the Irish 2000 Guineas. The way that race panned out with Van Der Neer never at the races, it was fairly straightforward for Magician to follow the hare that was Trading Leather and pick him off in the closing stages. Stablemate Gale Force Ten had done most of his running on soft/ish ground and didn’t have the pace to catch Joseph’s mount.
I think Magician was left in the Derby as a precaution, in case something went amiss with one of their better contenders. He will be staying at a mile for Royal Ascot and when considering backing him for The Eclipse one of my worries would be that a mile may be his best trip. Aiden stated that you need a horse with a bit of speed for Chester and I feel the horses he beat in the Dee Stakes may not be great shakes. Back up in trip in stronger company could be a different ball game for Magician and he will have to face older horses, some of whom have form with the best. This year’s Derby winner got a bit of a thumbs down from the handicapper and I already felt that the older ones may have an advantage form wise. If I had to pick between Magician and Farhh it wouldn’t take me long to plump for Frankel’s old sparring partner, and if he beats Animal Kingdom at Royal Ascot before turning up in the Eclipse, his current odds of 3/1 will look like finding money lying in the street.
Considering that Magician’s first race out this season was at 10f, I suspect that AOB did not originally intend this horse to become a miler. It just so happened that he showed a great turn of foot at Chester, so he took the risk and dropped him back to 8f.
I never doubted Frankel’s ability. I think he was a great horse over a mile, a very good one over 10f. But I don’t think he would have stayed 12f in the likes of a big bargy race like the Arc, usually run on less than good ground. He was wrapped in cotton wool by the trainer and never even taken overseas once. I can’t help but be left feeling underwhelmed.
Having made the trip down from Scotland to Ascot to witness the great horse himself in his last ever race, I feel that I can offer a little first hand perspective on this issue.
The ground was very soft that day, so a stamina sapping 10f.
Frankel cruised to the front, but his speed was blunted slightly by the mud. He cruised past Cirrus but then as soon as Queally asked for more he came off the bridle for the first time. By the line he was close to running on empty. He did not have much in reserve, and had this race been over 12f Cirrus would have stayed on and beaten him I reckon.
Having said all that, the Derby was not run on soft ground, but on firm. And it did not have a horse the calibre of Cirrus. Personally having seen him run a soft ground 10f I doubt he had the class to compensate for a lack of stamina over 12f. Over a mile the horse was great, but lets not pretend he could have been great over a distance he never tried, and for good reason.
Just my observations
I was also at Ascot that day and I would beg to differ. Cirrus Des Aigles didn’t make any ground on him in the last furlong. If anything, if you look closely, the distance between Frankel and Cirrus at the line was actually bigger than what it was at the last furlong pole albeit very slightly. This is further supported by the time sectionals from RUK (12.68-12.26-12.07-11.91). Frankel went quicker for every single furlong, with the last one being the quickest. So, he was hardly running on empty. In fact, that last furlong was even quicker than what Cirrus and So You Think finished in the same race the year before, and that was on good ground (I was there for that one as well, Champions Day is my new favorite racing day). I can see your point from a visual impression perspective, but I don’t think visual impression paints a very accurate picture in this case.
And, as you said, that race was run in stamina-sapping conditions and in that respect was a bit more than your usual 1m2f. It must also be noted that Frankel won on around 2100m at York, going further and further away from a confirmed 1m4f horse in St Nicholas Abbey. But coming back to the Ascot race, Cirrus Des Aigles was arguably the best heavy ground horse in the world up to that point having won his last three races in such conditions by around 9 lengths every time. Yet, that day, Frankel got the better of the second highest rated horse in the world on his favorite ground and trip, making Frankel the best soft going horse around in spite of the fact he didn’t really relish such ground. We shouldn’t forget that Nathaniel, a confirmed 1m4f and soft going horse, was well beaten in third. Nathaniel was from the same classic season as Frankel and in my mind would have won the Derby had he shown up. After all, he did win a much better race than the Derby in the King George against St Nic, Workforce and the ill-fated Rewilding a few months later. Yet, even if there were two more furlongs in that testing ground on Champions Day, there was absolute no chance of Nathaniel coming back to beat Frankel.
So, to sum up, I do think Frankel would have won the Derby that year. It might not have been his best trip but he’s so far ahead of the likes of Treasure Beach that I cannot possibly imagine the latter reversing the 11 lengths beating he received in the Royal Lodge, irrespective of the distance. Even Carlton House ,who did not really stay the trip and is hardly a third the horse Frankel is, finished a decent fourth. As someone mentioned, I believe the only reason Frankel could have lost that race is not due to pulling or not staying but possibly the hard race he had in the Guineas, which is the very reason he could have lost the St James Palace in my mind. I know Queally came in for a lot of criticism that day, but tbh had they ridden that way without the Guineas beforehand, he would have completely routed them. If anything, the Guineas ride was probably the more suicidal ride of the two and did take a fair bit out of the horse. But, it’s a credit to the horse exceptional ability that even after these two hard races, he did what he did to Canford Cliffs in the Sussex.
Okay fair point about the timings, and yes technically Frankel had pulled a tiny bit further away by the end. But I still maintain that by the line Frankel was off the bridle. Queally was pushing and shoving him and he was not going away in his usual gliding fashion. His stamina reserves were at their limit there. Just my opinion.
Having made the trip down from Scotland to Ascot to witness the great horse himself in his last ever race, I feel that I can offer a little first hand perspective on this issue.
The ground was very soft that day, so a stamina sapping 10f.
Frankel cruised to the front, but his speed was blunted slightly by the mud. He cruised past Cirrus but then as soon as Queally asked for more he came off the bridle for the first time. By the line he was close to running on empty. He did not have much in reserve, and had this race been over 12f Cirrus would have stayed on and beaten him I reckon.
Having said all that, the Derby was not run on soft ground, but on firm. And it did not have a horse the calibre of Cirrus. Personally having seen him run a soft ground 10f I doubt he had the class to compensate for a lack of stamina over 12f. Over a mile the horse was great, but lets not pretend he could have been great over a distance he never tried, and for good reason.
Just my observations
I think the winner looked good enough, especially for one with so little racecourse experience. I though Hughes ride on Mars was strange, he dropped him right out the back rather than finding a spot mid division, so got him hampered by traffic on the run in. Definitely could have finished closer with a better ride, doubtful he could have won.
I don’t know whether I am simply attached to the horse, but I feel like with the right ride Mars could pick something up over 10f this season. He’s always been an afterthought and not given great rides in either races this season. I’d like to see him up with the pace a little more to give him a chance to quicken. His very impressive juvenile win came from the front of the pack, not sure why he is being ridden like a closer this season.
Really going out on a limb here because I am awful at picking winners and I always go for the obvious ones!
Libertarian
Chopin
MarsI am still not sure of the order for the first two
Coolmore have indeed declared Magician a NR – I have taken the very kind 18s offered by Billy’s EW about the northern challenger Libertarian, if he can stay in touch and get round the bend in one piece not many will finish with a better rattle
I agree that Libertarian might be the dark horse, certainly a good each way prospect. At the moment we really don’t know about the New Approachs’ staying power, but the horse has a nice bit of stamina through the distaff side. Perhaps in time he will develop into a nice St Leger type. Great to see a Yorkshire trained horse in the mix.
The Ballydoyle scattergun approach has shades of Sea The Stars Derby about it, except they don’t even have a G1 winner in the field (unlike Fame And Glory was at the time). Shame Kingsbarns is not there to make it a real stamina test. BOM is just a last minute sub, and probably over-hyped. The fact the stable seems to rate him over the more visually impressive ROTW suggests that the former works better at home than the latter. Strange to think back to when Mars made hid debut on the all weather at Dundalk and he was being touted as the next big thing. Now almost an also-ran. I wonder why he was at one time thought to be so great?
The German and French horses are also interesting, with little to gauge their form by their beaten horses. Chopin is by a unknown German miler but with a bit of stamina through Galileo on the dam’s side, but more 8-10f speed through Gulch. The pedigree does not scream 12f, but no less (in fact probably more) so than the principals DA/BOM. He had a couple of wide margin successes in Germany, but none of the horses he has beaten have done anything of note, so the form figures might flatter.
Ocovango has a similar stamina profile to Shirocco, but a little less on the dam side. Shirocco won on the derby course in the Coronation Cup so that gives us some (little) idea of how a Monsun might handle the track/distance. Obviously a completely different style to the German horse, his winning margins have been small after having made all or been prominent, but he beat a smart looking horse in Wire To Wire on his last G3 run.
Unlike STS, DA does not have guaranteed stamina on either side. It is funny to think we ever doubted STS staying power now considering the stout German dam side and the other Derby winner in the family! DA has no such refuge. New Approach is as yet an unknown quantity for 12f progeny, and the sire himself has a fair bit of speed through his dam Park Express. Although on the face of it the dam is pure speed, she does have some stamina through the sire of her dam Pleasant Colony. Overall, I would be surprised if DA stayed. I would imagine the jockey will hide him out the back and try to protect him as long as possible, because he might be treading water at the furlong pole and vulnerable to a something staying on late.
Anyway, that’s my take on things. Sorry for it being so long!
Main Sequence is running tonight at Sandown. I really hope he gets back to winning ways, I have always liked the horse. As for Camelot, I do not think people realise how traumatic colic surgery is for a horse. I would not be surprised if he was never quite the same horse again. Many horses have to be retired after such surgery as they before prone to life threatening episodes of colic.
Noel Fehilly used to ride a fair bit for Nicholls, what happened to that arrangement?
I don’t really follow those old wives tales anyway!! My old horse had massive ears and he was a dodgy *******!!
It is commonly said amongst horsey people that a horse with big hears is honest and genuine. So what Fitz said makes perfect sense. It is an anthropomorphism, probably based on the fact that horses with big ears have a slightly goofy, friendly look about them. But us horsey people never claim to act with pure logic!
This is really sad news. I feel a bit cheated of a fair chance at the Triple Crown. Coolmore must be livid and understandably so.
Impressive performance. Considering that he had problems last year closing out races I wonder if in fact 8f is his optimum trip and that he was just done for stamina over 10 last year? He is by Pivotal after all, though the dam has a fair bit of stamina.
Turns out Declaration of War is more "Await The Dawn" than "Duke of Marmalade"!!
According to the racing post he grazed his pastern (the bone connecting the fetlock to the hoof) in the horsebox. Thing is, that is such an avoidable injury. My horse always wears protectives boots in the lorry which cover the leg completely from the hoof to above the knee. I know from experience that racehorses often travel without them. Considering it is a potentially valuable 3yo colt (presumably with an insurance policy) you would think they’d take the trouble to put some flipping boots on it!!
Sorry rant over
