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Whisper from the yard is that Magician is Ballydoyle’s best three-year-old and will be aimed at the Eclipse after Royal Ascot.
So with some nice ante-post vouchers, it was nice to see Dawn Approach (albeit he can be forgiven that run) fail in the Derby, Camelot flop somewhat last time, and another Ballydoyle runner (thought not as good as Magician) win the Derby.
And on top of that, Animal Kingdom is very likely to be retired after RA.
In other words, it’s all falling into Magician’s path.
7/1 still available – 8.0 on Betfair having been matched at 100.0+
Both Intello and Dawn Approach could shatter that dream and the Irish Derby has still to play out.
They could, they could.
Not sure what connections think of RotW after his Derby victory, but a month ago (before Chester) Magician was thought of as their top three-year-old, some way ahead RotW.
And crucially he’s expected to be a 10f horse and no further, hence we’ll see him at Royal Ascot and then Sandown.
Still baffled as to why they left him in the Derby last Monday, but I’m glad he didn’t go there.
So the plan for me is to see him win at Royal Ascot, and then lock in some decent profits once he’s as short as 3.5-4.0 for the Eclipse
If only it were that simple, but there’s no harm in hoping.
Magician ran and won at Chester and two weeks later he ran in the Irish Guineas. After the Irish Guineas they considered running in the Derby but did not. Why? Had they considered him their best horse they could have skipped the Irish Guineas and gone for the English Derby with him, their best horse, no? I believe that Joseph would have ridden him in the Derby had he thought that he(Magician) was better that BoM. So, when did Aidan decide that Magician was better than BoM and RotW? Does he still hold to this opinion after the Derby? Did Moore’s opinion enter the mix? Fascinating conundrum.
If Magician was/is the stable number one, it is a bit surprising that they did not let him run in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. The race was only six days earlier than when he ran at Chester and his Curragh 2000 Guineas win would suggest he had the speed to be competitive in Dawn Approach’s race. Certainly, the ones O’Brien did send hardly looked that likely before the race and although a couple of them ran respectably, you would back Magician over them at that trip now. After the Chester trials it was stated that Ruler Of The World was the true mile and a half horse over Magician and I expected the latter might turn up in the French Derby. Perhaps they were concerned about taking on Intello and therefore decided to go to the Irish 2000 Guineas. The way that race panned out with Van Der Neer never at the races, it was fairly straightforward for Magician to follow the hare that was Trading Leather and pick him off in the closing stages. Stablemate Gale Force Ten had done most of his running on soft/ish ground and didn’t have the pace to catch Joseph’s mount.
I think Magician was left in the Derby as a precaution, in case something went amiss with one of their better contenders. He will be staying at a mile for Royal Ascot and when considering backing him for The Eclipse one of my worries would be that a mile may be his best trip. Aiden stated that you need a horse with a bit of speed for Chester and I feel the horses he beat in the Dee Stakes may not be great shakes. Back up in trip in stronger company could be a different ball game for Magician and he will have to face older horses, some of whom have form with the best. This year’s Derby winner got a bit of a thumbs down from the handicapper and I already felt that the older ones may have an advantage form wise. If I had to pick between Magician and Farhh it wouldn’t take me long to plump for Frankel’s old sparring partner, and if he beats Animal Kingdom at Royal Ascot before turning up in the Eclipse, his current odds of 3/1 will look like finding money lying in the street.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Watching El Grand Senior heading into the straight at Epsom the commentator said it was like watching money being minted.He was of course pipped on the post.There is no money lying on the ground.
He will still have to win it andy but I suspect his price will shrivel if he beats Animal Kingdom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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He will still have to win it andy but I suspect his price will shrivel if he beats Animal Kingdom.
Didn’t think He’d be racing Animal Kingdom? AK is meant to be heading for the Queen Anne (7/4) with Magician racing in the St James Palace Stakes (5/4)
Farhh has been second favourite in the Queen Anne betting for a fair while and they were 3/1 joint favourites at one stage. Their prices have gone in opposite directions over the past couple of days though and quite dramatically so today. It doesn’t look like Farhh will be running on that evidence, and he is entered in The Prince of Wales the following day so perhaps that’s where we will see him. His odds for the latter race have shortened and is a best price 3/1 now with Al Kazeem generally second favourite for that one. It’ll be Farhh for me of those two, as I am not sure scalping Camelot is as good as viewing Frankel’s bottom from a safe distance.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If Magician was/is the stable number one, it is a bit surprising that they did not let him run in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. The race was only six days earlier than when he ran at Chester and his Curragh 2000 Guineas win would suggest he had the speed to be competitive in Dawn Approach’s race. Certainly, the ones O’Brien did send hardly looked that likely before the race and although a couple of them ran respectably, you would back Magician over them at that trip now. After the Chester trials it was stated that Ruler Of The World was the true mile and a half horse over Magician and I expected the latter might turn up in the French Derby. Perhaps they were concerned about taking on Intello and therefore decided to go to the Irish 2000 Guineas. The way that race panned out with Van Der Neer never at the races, it was fairly straightforward for Magician to follow the hare that was Trading Leather and pick him off in the closing stages. Stablemate Gale Force Ten had done most of his running on soft/ish ground and didn’t have the pace to catch Joseph’s mount.
I think Magician was left in the Derby as a precaution, in case something went amiss with one of their better contenders. He will be staying at a mile for Royal Ascot and when considering backing him for The Eclipse one of my worries would be that a mile may be his best trip. Aiden stated that you need a horse with a bit of speed for Chester and I feel the horses he beat in the Dee Stakes may not be great shakes. Back up in trip in stronger company could be a different ball game for Magician and he will have to face older horses, some of whom have form with the best. This year’s Derby winner got a bit of a thumbs down from the handicapper and I already felt that the older ones may have an advantage form wise. If I had to pick between Magician and Farhh it wouldn’t take me long to plump for Frankel’s old sparring partner, and if he beats Animal Kingdom at Royal Ascot before turning up in the Eclipse, his current odds of 3/1 will look like finding money lying in the street.
Considering that Magician’s first race out this season was at 10f, I suspect that AOB did not originally intend this horse to become a miler. It just so happened that he showed a great turn of foot at Chester, so he took the risk and dropped him back to 8f.
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Considering that Magician’s first race out this season was at 10f, I suspect that AOB did not originally intend this horse to become a miler. It just so happened that he showed a great turn of foot at Chester, so he took the risk and dropped him back to 8f.
You would think that the trainer must have had
some
idea that the horse had a bit of pace and it has to be said that, for such a powerful stable, the challenge they mounted in the 2000 Guineas was rather a weak show, with a 150/1 shot outrunning all three of its participants. If Magician goes on to win the St James’ Palace stakes in good style next time, I believe my question about why he wasn’t at Newmarket will be a valid enough one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well Aidan sure did not know which one would win the Derby this year!! And look at Talent for Ralph Becket, Hughsie thought she was Slow at home. Some horses just never show it unless they’re on the racecourse.
Having said that your point is a good one. Maybe Magician just was not ready at that time of year. 2000 guineas at G1 level without a prep race is a big ask, look how many runs Dawn Approach had as a 2yo, and even Henry ran Frankel in a prep race. Probably just not forward enough for the race. Nothing about his 2yo career suggested that Magician would be a top G1 miler. He came on a lot at Chester.
Well Aidan sure did not know which one would win the Derby this year!! And look at Talent for Ralph Becket, Hughsie thought she was Slow at home. Some horses just never show it unless they’re on the racecourse.
Having said that your point is a good one. Maybe Magician just was not ready at that time of year. 2000 guineas at G1 level without a prep race is a big ask, look how many runs Dawn Approach had as a 2yo, and even Henry ran Frankel in a prep race. Probably just not forward enough for the race. Nothing about his 2yo career suggested that Magician would be a top G1 miler. He came on a lot at Chester.
I hear what you are saying but I find it a bit odd, that Mars, who was never really supposed to a be a Guineas sort either, was deemed a better candidate. I wonder what their prices would be if lined up against each other in a big mile race now?
Magician has certainly been a pleasant surprise with his improvement this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yeah I agree about Mars, he was a really odd choice to run in the Guineas considering he was always touted as a derby prospect after his first run at Dundalk. Usually I am big fan of AOB, but I actually feel like this horse is not being given the chance to reach his full potential simply because there are too many other horses in the yard. Terrible hold up rides in the 2000 guineas and then again in the Derby. I hope he’ll show his true colours given a more forward ride.
Somebody mentioned on this forum a while back, that Ballydoyle were looking to try and bag Cristoforo Columbo a G1 this season because he was by Henrythenavigator, a young stallion who needed some eye catching results in order to catch his big break. Hence it would make sense keeping him away from a better prospect in the same yard (and yet another Galileo, who hardly needs any more advertising as a stallion!).
Could this be Dawn Approach’s next stop? Magician could go down the mile option, Goodwood after Ascot? With Farrh injured, Snow Fairy precocious, could be worth a back to lay option on Camelot. I really dislike him, and glad to take him on, but if he turns up, will likely be around evens.
Could this be Dawn Approach’s next stop? Magician could go down the mile option, Goodwood after Ascot? With Farrh injured, Snow Fairy precocious, could be worth a back to lay option on Camelot. I really dislike him, and glad to take him on, but if he turns up, will likely be around evens.
I don’t think we will see Dawn Approach in the Eclipse, they were supposed to be giving him a break and I think this would be soon enough after his flop in the Derby. I would also expect that when he does return, if ever, they would leave him at a mile to get his confidence back. It would seem a bit silly to come back after a setback and throw him in again at a trip in excess of where he has been running successfully previously.
With Dawn Approach a doubt, even if turning up, Ruler of the World going to the Curragh and Magician potentially staying at a mile it would seem that whoever wins the Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot will be something of a warm order for the Eclipse. I expect Al Kazeem to confirm form with Camelot in that race and for the life of me I cannot understand why the two are priced 5/2 and 11/4 respectively for the Prince Of Wales and yet they are 5/2 and 6/1 respectively for The Eclipse. Perhaps the thinking is that Camelot is less likely to turn up in the latter race but surely if he wins the POW it would be logical to try to enhance his dented reputation in the Eclipse.
I am taking the chance that Al Kazeem can make further progress this year and am going to back him for both races. He managed to win on his seasonal debut at a time when his yard was badly out of form and unless Camelot is a complete bust I think his form should allow him to be near the best this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Magician ran and won at Chester and two weeks later he ran in the Irish Guineas. After the Irish Guineas they considered running in the Derby but did not. Why? Had they considered him their best horse they could have skipped the Irish Guineas and gone for the English Derby with him, their best horse, no? I believe that Joseph would have ridden him in the Derby had he thought that he(Magician) was better that BoM. So, when did Aidan decide that Magician was better than BoM and RotW? Does he still hold to this opinion after the Derby? Did Moore’s opinion enter the mix? Fascinating conundrum.
This post hits the nail on the head as to where the ‘best 3-y-o in the yard’ opinion comes from. And it’s not often that he’s wrong – he as in the man in the know, not andyod
The horse was never going to Epsom, but having won so easily over 10f at Chester, and never coming out of a canter to win the Irish Guineas, they left it in just in case something happened to BoM. The thinking was he could win a 12F contest which was full of non-stayers – one being himself perhaps.
But the fact that RoW won the Derby is the biggest plus of all. Magician is regarded much better than him, something reiterated again at the weekend by the yard (or someone very close to the yard).
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