Home › Forums › Betting Chat – Bets & Tips › Tails from the blackcountry II
- This topic has 585 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 2 days, 22 hours ago by
Blackcountry Kid.
- AuthorPosts
- October 3, 2021 at 11:46 #1562189
Although he was out of the money in my opinion Soumillon overdid the waiting tactics on Dilawar when trying to make ground when the pace picks up and at it’s fiercest,believe he’s worth keeping onside.
Thought Minzaal,see VtC’s flat notebook,did enough to book his place to Meydan,assuming of course it goes ahead.
As it’s getting on I shall just put forward BERNEUIL e/w for the L’Abbaye who’s done nothing but progress since being dropped to the minimum trip.
good luck to allOctober 6, 2021 at 13:04 #1562473Putting forward a gelding that showed a lot of promise earlier in his career for your consideration.Ran exclusively at 7f as a juvenile winning a novice event on debut and following this up with two placed efforts in Group races.Off the track for over eight months before making a very encouraging seasonal bow in the Commonwealth Cup which was followed up with a success over Glen Shiel at Deauville who won 3 of his next four races that season which included a 2nd & 1st places in Group 1 contests.Put away for almost another eight months he reappeared during March at Meydan and for whatever reasons the wheels had come off and until recently hadn’t shown the same sparkle.However ROYAL CRUSADE made a real positive show at Haydock on his handicap bow posting numbers head & shoulders above anything he had previously.Although only 3rd he was catching the first two quickly as the line came.Stable & jockey in form,along with a good course record,I’m very hopeful of picking up the spoils here.
good luck to allOctober 9, 2021 at 10:56 #1562752Going to the ‘Ascot of the north’ for a colt with limited experience but if he lives up to the reputation of former winners of the BetVictor London Gold Cup handicap this is a mere stepping stone to future success,five of the last six winners of this race went on to win Group 1 or 2 contests.The selection being put forward for your consideration wasn’t seen at the track until Oct of his juvenile campaign,probably due to his late foaling date ,April 1,and ran two solid if unspectacular races just over a month apart.Reappearing nearly 5 months later BAY BRIDGE made his seasonal bow on Newcastle’s tapeta over 10f and disposed of some fair rivals in a novice event with the minimum of fuss.The following month,May,he competed in the above mentioned handicap registering numbers that marked him out as a horse worth noting,time was 5 seconds faster than a Listed fillies event later on the card.
While watching RacingTV on Wednesday I was reminded of a sprinter Appleby trained much earlier in his career when establishing himself as a Godolphin trainer.This was a horse by the name of Pretend and I must admit the thought crossed my mind as Royal Crusade had already made one fruitless trip to Dubai maybe he could be aimed at the A/W Championship series in this country?
good luck to allOctober 16, 2021 at 11:36 #1563488Probably gunning for the toughest race at Ascot today in the concluding Balmoral Handicap with a,in my opinion,progressive gelding who’s taken time to show his abilities.Given the most unkind cut of all before he even ran DASHING ROGER e/w showed promise in two of the three runs as a juvenile.Finally losing the maiden tag at the sixth attempt in a small unassuming Lingfield a/w handicap.Put away for three months following that race resumed at Kempton in June later winning another small race at Yarmouth the following month on good/firm from a mark of 74.However his autumn campaign improved his rating to a new high.Off the new higher mark his first two races this season were a distinct disappointment I imagine to connections as he didn’t beat a single horse.Performed better behind the disqualified Master the Stars over 10f during May which continued 13 days later with a ready win at Sandown registering numbers that marked this gelding out as one to watch.Maybe ran too close to the pace next time when 3rd before,ridden with more restraint,he returned to the winners enclosure here at the Shergar Cup meeting in August again recording good numbers.This will be by far his sternest task but freshened up I’m hopeful of this gelding will outrun his odds and move me toward putting this thread back into profit.
This season has been one of my worst for many a long year but I still have hopes to turn it around and finish somewhere near par if not in profit although I will admit chances are dwindling with the turf closing soon and the reduced opportunities offered on the a/w.
good luck to allNovember 11, 2021 at 10:42 #1567104Feeling ready for a winter campaign on the all weather but I’ve always bemoaned the lack of coverage from the RP although ATR do a little better with their column Surfing the Sand.While I acknowledge the emphasis will always switch to national hunt racing with the turf flat season coming to an end I do think the coverage given to the a/w is somewhat underwhelming.While the A/W Championship adds a little spice to the mix come the end of the winter flat season I do feel it’s not allocated the time or space it deserves.The announcement from ARC that the Championship Finals are to be moved to Newcastle next year left a lump in my throat as Lingfield,one of the three original a/w courses,deserves better for the years of solid endeavour put into it by the course and it’s staff.
Today we are back for the most important part of this thread to try to relieve the bookies of their burdensome cash loads.Going over to Chelmsford for their evening fixture and the highlight of this meeting.I’ve noted that what was a very warm favourite last night,Liverpool Knight,has been drifting in the betting market this morning which I cannot say I find surprising as his win over this trip at Wolves didn’t have any strength in depth and looks vulnerable to me.Cases can be made for Marshall Plan & Bascule but the horse I’m putting forward for your consideration is NAPPER TANDY who for me won with more up his sleeve than the official margins suggest when last seen in April.From a stable which I must admit has surprised me the last two seasons with it’s overall form and ridden by a jockey who’s getting better as he matures,both in form and with the colt registering very good numbers when successful at Newcastle I’m prepared to take a chance he can overcome the absence.
good luck to allNovember 13, 2021 at 11:23 #1567367Hearing once again the plaudits lavished on Southgate and the England team for beating inferior opposition really makes me laugh.While sure it gave pleasure to many I like to be somewhat more discerning.In the European Championship fate gifted them a easier passage to the final than one might have expected and despite an excellent start failed once again when they came up against a good side playing decent football.For me this has been a trait of Southgate’s management although the England side may avoid defeat with a draw they just can’t beat a good team,so I’m reserving my praise until they actually start winning regularly when playing world class sides and WIN something!
Visiting my home track tonight for a lightly raced filly who showed distinct promise as a juvenile but has been absence for most of this season returning in a Listed contest confined to the girls where she ran well for a long way tiring late on after being off the track for over a year.As a juvenile WEDDING DANCE showed progressive form race to race in her three starts.After winning a decent fillies maiden at Newmarket in July finished off in France a good runner up in a Group 3 contest.Tonight’s race looks well within her compass and expect her to lay the ground work for future success.
good luck to allNovember 13, 2021 at 19:18 #1567450That was very well backed
November 15, 2021 at 10:29 #1567675Yes Istabraq much more than I expected.
Personally thought 6/5 would be the starting price as she just looked class in comparison with the opposition.
Just hope you and any others who followed me in managed to beat SP.
good luck to allNovember 20, 2021 at 11:42 #1568215Although today’s colt I’m putting forward for your consideration is capable on turf his numbers when successful in the apprentice race on Finals day back in April over this course & distance make very good reading.His usual run style should be well suited by today’s small field and I simply expect LORD OF THE LODGE to go from the front and not see another rival.Placed in Group company he’s better than recent results have shown and a return to a synthetic surface I believe will be welcomed as to my mind superior numbers have been gained when the prevailing conditions apply.Interesting that the only time he’s run on polytrack previously was the April run when giving weight all round he registered career high numbers so it may be possible that he’s even better on this surface than the tapeta all his other a/w runs have been on?However that is pure conjecture on my part.
Of the opposition the overnight favourite has been drifting and continues to do so at the time of writing.A stablemate of the selection seems to have attracted some money but I would question whether 7f is best?I have various doubts about the other contenders so despite the selections recent runs and current stable form,he runs well for today’s apprentice,I’m prepared to risk a small wager.
As Monty Python would say ‘and now for something completely different’…….
Last night the BBC broadcast the regular Children in Need appeal.I not longer watch and haven’t for a few years now so I might be wrong and hopefully this will be pointed out if I should be in error.Many years ago the regional tv studio’s would play a major part in the broadcast with it going on if I remember correctly until the early hours the following morning.I noted from the TV listings that it was a very truncated version of years gone by last night with no mention that any local content would be involved just all from London with a cast of virtue signalling celebs demanding the nations money.However I believe it’s much more simple to donate locally direct to the causes you wish to support rather than give to a pontificating bunch ‘do gooders’ who afterwards will return to their mansions and not give a second thought to charities except until the next time they want some free publicity.Cynical of me to think such things I know but all this hero worship at the altar of celebs I find distasteful and nauseating how they are content to exploit people who admire them for personal gain.
You of course may think differently.
good luck to allNovember 23, 2021 at 12:49 #1568708Apologies for Lord of the Lodge he just didn’t look in love with the game any longer so wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of stable as a new environment & routine can restore a jaded horse.
Going to my local course,Dunstall Park, for MONDAMMEJ in the main feature on the card this evening.Although this gelding stays further for me the minimum is the ideal trip and he’s well suited to the tapeta surface.Bounced back to form last time following a very much below par effort at York where I’m inclined to think the combination of trip and ground didn’t favour him,had previously run down the field in the Portland at Doncaster on similar ground.Providing he’s not held up too far off the leaders I believe he has the pace to mow these rivals down in the final furlong as Exalted Angel & Fizzy Feet should between them ensure a decent pace or failing that even Royal Birth has been known to take them along but maybe unlikely tonight given his draw.
good luck to all
November 27, 2021 at 11:45 #1569368This time of year is always somewhat tricky as like tonight I’m putting forward a gelding for your consideration who’s form differs greatly between turf and the a/w although this fact isn’t reflected in his official rating.The selection stays 8f but personally think tonight’s distance of 7f suits him better.While it’s always somewhat of a leap of faith that FOX DUTY FREE will reproduce previous form on his retune to the winter game following a fruitless turf campaign his record and falling handicap mark make it worth the risk.
good luck to allDecember 3, 2021 at 12:17 #1570363Last Saturday’s horse Fox Duty Free ran well but suspect the lack of a recent run played it’s part and would expect him to pay his way during the a/w season.
Going north to the site where next years a/w finale will take place and despite the way some in racing have waxed lyrical about the move I can’t see it being a bigger draw than Lingfield who now will host it seems a very valuable jump meeting which to my mind gives trainers another chance to avoid bringing together the best of their horses.
Putting forward for your consideration a lightly raced William Haggas individual who very much caught the eye on only his second run this year.Indeed this gelding has a lifetime career of just 5 runs since making his juvenile debut in the summer of 2019 when winning a novice event at Windsor recording good numbers before carrying on the success in another novice contest at York.It wasn’t until the dying days of the following year that BOOSALA was seen again achieving good numbers when running creditably in a conditions event against higher rated rivals at Dunstall Park on a tapeta surface,the same kind he meets this evening.Another lengthy absence ensued before he reappeared in a Gp 3 Ascot sprint where on reflection he probably ran ok given the time he’d been off the course and was ready for a step up in trip.At Doncaster just over a month later he stamped his class on a fair 7f handicap registering good numbers where travelling well took up the running about 1f out with the result never in doubt thereafter.
That was the geldings handicap debut off a mark of 97 with the RP reporting that he will be aimed at a winter campaign in this country.From a stable in form with a decent a/w record and a jockey going well a 3lb rise in his mark doesn’t look insurmountable.
good luck to allDecember 18, 2021 at 11:50 #1573112OUCH!
I really thought Boosala had nailed the long time leader on the line but went down by a flared nostril.Has to go back into Group company next season and can probably make his mark as long as campaigned over a suitable trip and not tried too highly until a better idea of his abilities and distance requirements are assessed.
Going to be taking somewhat of a risk today on a filly that made one hell of an impression on me on her last run at Kempton in the Listed Wild Flower Stakes at the start of this month.Seemingly a ‘shot in the dark’ and on the face of it booked for place money at best GARDEN PARADISE e/w blew away her rivals with one exception rated a stone and more better with a pillar to post run with none being able to get close enough to land a blow.This performance followed a break from early July until 6 days earlier when taking a class 4 handicap at Dunstall Park comfortably off a mark of 80.Although she made all last time this filly is versatile as regard tactics and not without pace,but probably best with a good gallop on a surface with give underfoot on turf and seems to go even better on the a/w.This lightly raced selection being put forward for your consideration hasn’t as yet I believe reached the limit of her abilities as recent progress shows and could once again leave people gasping with another improved performance.
good luck to allDecember 23, 2021 at 13:48 #1574121Just wish to offer readers seasons greetings & MERRY CHRISTMAS and to say all being well there will be selections posted on 26th and possibly 27th.Plus a full round up of the year when all results are tallied and maybe even include a New Year message.
good luck to all
MickDecember 27, 2021 at 11:34 #1574781First of all I must apologise for not posting yesterday as things got out of hand and time simply slipped away without my having the chance.Today putting forward for your consideration a filly who from recent events could be absolutely ‘thrown in’ off a penalty following her win over course and distance just a week ago.Although taking a big step up in class the contest HUMM HURAIR contests at Dunstall Park can be said to be such a race in name only as this grade 2 race looks no better than class 4 to me.A very late foal she progressed from first to second runs as a juvenile under the care of William Haggas before changing stables to her present handler,staying in the same ownership.Raced for the first time in over a year when making her stable debut at today’s track when a pleasing enough 5/10 over a extended 9f in a maiden tiring in the final furlong.Whether this was the absence or the trip she made her handicap debut over a shorter extended 8f in early Dec and won comfortably off an opening mark of 67.Just a week ago returned here for a demolition job in a similar handicap running off a mark of 74 and registering numbers that suggest she’s much better than her current official rating.Not going to get rich off her today but one to keep in mind for the future.
The Boxing Day card from Dunstall Park was intriguing for for future clues……..
The conditions sprint …… following this return to action after an absence expect EJITLAAB to make his mark both on the a/w and turf.Forget LIVE IN THE MOMENT’s run as this gelding for me is an out and out minimum trip specialist and expect better when returned to such a trip.
In the next race on the card a/w specialist AYR HARBOUR ran a terrific race after a long absence but will now have to contend a lofty rating.Misty Grey again confirmed how well this surface suits with the third Spycatcher also emerging with lots of credit.
good luck to allDecember 30, 2021 at 16:45 #1575533As I’m unlikely to be posting tomorrow want to take this opportunity to wish all readers a HAPPY & PROPEROUS NEW YEAR when all your wishes and dreams come true.As for myself it was good to finish on a winner even though a somewhat stingy price.
good luck to allJanuary 1, 2022 at 11:46 #1575930NAPPER TANDY e/w to small money.
Believe this trip suits much better than the 14f he ran over in the last two races.
good luck to all - AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.