- This topic has 585 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 2 days, 23 hours ago by
.
- Posts
A very brief post to say just invested on CORVAIR at Dunstall Park this evening
good luck to allI don’t think I will get any argument when I say 2021 wasn’t the best of years for myself or this thread.
On a personal level I lost 30.43% of capital employed over the year.Not the first time a losing year has occurred but probably my worst since I began recording details.
Figures to the end of last year for this thread to a £1 stake with returns measured at SP since I started this blog read ……… staked £146 ……. returns £135.98 … so a 6.87% deficit to 31/12/20.
Although 2022 has begun not in the way I would have liked betting on horses is a long term project and I know I’m capable of once again putting this thread into profit.
good luck to allThank you VtC …….. I shall try to keep you and other readers entertained for the coming year.
Although HELLO ME is capable on turf I think it’s becoming pretty clear this filly is carving out a name for herself on synthetic surfaces.Like her main rival today was quite a late foal doing well as a juvenile when winning on two of her three appearances,a maiden on debut at Wolverhampton and a novice event at Chelmsford with a second in another novice between the two.Didn’t show much as a 3yo in the first half of last season while slipping down the handicap until August when off a mark of 72 showed a glimpse of her ability at Windsor when filling the runner up position.Three weeks later returned to win over the same course & distance off 2lb higher.Later in Sept ran with credit when 3rd at York before a a/w campaign started in Oct since when so far she’s run once a month.These races have resulted in two successes at Wolverhampton & Newcastle and perhaps a somewhat unlucky second at Chelsmford showing progressive numbers each time.I believe further progress is likely from this selection and whatever the outcome today we are going to hear more of her.
good luck to allI always enjoy dipping into the Meydan racing and one horse that impressed me at the last carnival who showed real progress in each outing was MOTAFAAWIT e/w who although having won over longer trips for me excelled when returned to sprint distances.The selections only other attempt was when in the care of Richard Hannon as a juvenile when just failing to catch Legends of War who went on to be a very useful horse.Not given another chance over shorter distances until Meydan last year as a 33/1 shot he won a good handicap over the minimum trip.Upped to 6f next time just failed to catch Final Song when coming from stone cold last with just about two furlongs to run.His final race last year was the Group 1 Al Quoz sprint when again coming late and fast finishing well but somewhat undone by switching to the more favoured side of the track too late.I will admit I’m taking a chance with the selection being absent for so long and the trainer not in the best of form but even a place will produce a small profit and set up the stall for this talented gelding.
Yesterday I was reading how people were bemoaning the number of runners in races and especially quite valuable conditions events barely scraping together enough contestants to make a race of it.My views on the number of races & tracks overall I’ve made clear previously and no matter how much money is pumped into the sport from the levy or sponsors while the number of meetings increases the competitive element will suffer.Although I understand sponsors wanting at attract the best horses they can to their events there are just so many different targets available it’s all too easy for connections to avoid competition with their charges,this goes for flat and national hunt.
I don’t believe I’m the only one to hold such views and am firmly of the opinion the best way make racing more competitive and increase prize money right down to the lower levels is by reducing the schedules which incidentally will also benefit the welfare of the people involved in horse racing.I personally love getting stuck into a high grade handicap but you may disagree,that’s ok,but I do think something needs to be done to make the product more attractive to racegoers and all involved in the sport we love.
good luck to allWith very little of interest for me as regard betting once again going to Meydam for a couple of Godolphin runners ,one each from their respective stables.Both are lightly raced individuals who are in my opinion open to any amount of improvement and will make their mark in due course.In chronological order ROYAL FLEET e/w was undefeated until York last August when perhaps doing too much too early took it’s toll however redeemed himself 3 weeks later at Doncaster when quite stylishly running down the runner up looking better the closer they got to the post suggesting todays step up in trip should cause no trouble.Our second runner of the day comes in the following contest and by some considered to be bin Suroor’s second string by the much underrated stallion Night of Thunder.Foaled late April it’s not surprising to me that STORM DAMAGE e/w didn’t see a racecourse as a juvenile being gelded before making a winning debut at Kempton in a quite unremarkable novice event but beating the Stoute trained Thaler who already had experience which RP described as impressive.Maybe it was the ground or just came too quick but the selection didn’t show up in the Jersey Stakes 17 days later.Next seen at Newmarket in the middle of July won another novice event before being sent handicapping.Gave upward of 8lb to his three rivals and disposed of them with disdain,looking ready for better things to come.
good luck to allOriginal post amended,additional text added 4th Feb
Today going to be writing about a subject which has been very much in the news this past year and contemplated quite a while ago but for one reason or another put off mainly because unsure how it may be received.Mental health has been bandied around a lot in recent months as we at last emerge from the crippling ’emergency’ that has gripped the world.Although I don’t agree in all the aspects used to control the spread of the virus that’s now something in the rearview mirror and hopefully in the past not to be repeated.Allow me to say I do acknowledge some people have mental health issues and need help with their problems however is the problem as widespread as some would like us to believe?
If a individual,group or section of society are constantly told through the media or persons they think should be listened to about a topic this will lead to a belief it must be correct.People like being led by others they believe in whatever their credentials.You can take two people with a view on a subject,one can be knowledgeable but be hesitant while the second will know less (perhaps even nothing) but deliver with an air of confidence & authority,human nature as it is will have people gravitate towards the latter.
Not too long ago stress was the issue complained about and now the new one’s mental health and dare I say it …..is almost like stress becoming fashionable to suffer with countless public & media figures ready to bare their souls and tell us all of how they are being debilitated.A cause readily taken up by unions who seem to have accepted any covid scare story in order undermine a return to something like normal.
Why choose now to write this may be the question on your lips? …. Dame Joanna Lumley is the answer!
She has dared to question the idea of the mental health bandwagon being wheeled out and suggests it’s being overplayed and I feel she deserves support.In the article a quote from a 19th century poet features the words
‘Life is mostly froth and bubble / Two things stand like stone / Kindness in another’s trouble / Courage in your own’
There are people who go through life with a sense of entitlement feeling that society owes them a living,this goes for both rich & poor,with the nanny state providing whatever their wish may be.This special treatment may and does take many guises but the one unfailing common factor is the use of other people’s money.I know this won’t seem creditable and perhaps even self indulgent to some who read it but ask yourself if the Labour Party of the post war years really intended the NHS & Welfare system they set up to become the sprawling monoliths of today?
I suggest to you they didn’t and would be appalled by what has become of them.
good luck to allDeclared to run in the London Mile Series tomorrow to describe 4yo LA TIHATY as lightly raced wouldn’t be an exaggeration as this would only be a fifth career start.His sole juvenile outing was promising but green in the dying embers of 2020 in a Lingfield novice event.Returned over course and distance just a fortnight later won nicely with numbers that marked him out as useful.Completed his education in a third novice contest this time at Chelmsford when winning narrowly but probably with more authority than the official margin would suggest.Absent for almost a year reappeared over tomorrow’s course & distance to put up a quite scintillating display after dwelling at the start to come home strongly registering career high numbers being clearly better than the mark allotted for his handicap debut and looking like there’s more to come.This colt could be a potential Lincoln runner in my book and should be taken seriously although the one fly in the ointment at present is the lack of any turf form.
good luck to allAs newly fledged punters I’ve no doubt we individually and as a group were told many things but as with life there’s no greater lessons than learning from experience.However as with me they have probably taken time to sink in and be fully appreciated,while some are broad sweeps others are delicate nuances which only become apparent when taking a speciality.Top of the pile in class are condition races with Listed status or above and the horses weight decided by the said conditions of the race.Although a certain level of ability needs to be shown to win such an event as with horse racing in general some races are weaker/stronger than others but can be run to the same set of rules.In the feature race of tonight’s card at Dunstall Park One Night Stand may look the pick of the seven runners having tackled a Listed event on his latest outing and returned more than satisfactory numbers to be considered a contender for today’s contest.Using form from such conditions races and applying it to a handicap is fraught with danger on two accounts for me with this gelding,the first being he’s never come close to achieving numbers needed when running in a handicap which to me makes the figures suspect.The second’s a much more subtle difference which in my time dealing solely with sprinters I came to define as having a greater influence on a race than many punters would have thought.To most who would back a horse in this kind of race a sprint is a sprint and a sprinter a sprinter with no or little consideration given to the trip.I admit it’s on limited evidence but to me this shorter trip will be his undoing and much prefer the chances of EXISTENT who,last time out,after a career spent over further showed he’s suited by this trip when cruising behind the leaders and after switching put clear daylight between himself and his pursuers inside the final furlong registering his best numbers since winning a Newmarket maiden.To my mind on previous running styles of rivals it’s not too hard to suggest the selection will get a good pace to run at and despite the rise in class & mark has every chance of prevailing.
good luck to allIt’s been a bit of a frustrating week with a number of possible bets becoming probable only to be dashed by late deflections or in a couple of cases a price too short to really recommend here as to me the risk outweighted the reward.However today it looks like we have one that’s going to get to the post and run.Although capable on turf SHOOT TO KILL has a much better record on a synthetic surface which improves further when considering the geldings recent performances since being raced over 7f & 8f.The selection being put forward for your consideration isn’t a obvious candidate as his pedigree would suggest him as a sprinter,thus the long trail of attempts over shorter.The stable switch after going through a horses in training sales ring for £28,000 has almost already been repaid to new connections with a hat trick of wins showing progress on each occasion with career high numbers when successful here in January.The fly in the ointment may be the draw as to date for the new stable a prominent position has been adapted which may not the easy this time,it’s a risk I’m prepared to take but would be unfair of me not to point it out.The narrow margins of victory have made if hard for the handicapper to assess this gelding meaning since the first win back in November he’s only been raised 8lb so given his progressive profile there’s every chance he hasn’t peaked yet.
good luck to allWith little more than a fortnight to the Festival and the NH’s other big end of season occasions it also for me marks the coming turf campaign as the A/W winds up too.The Saturday preceding Cheltenham we have Dunstall Parks big day out with it’s Listed contest and some valuable handicaps with prize money in the region of £200,000 in previous years nothing to be sniffed at,more of this nearer the time.However before that we have a good Lingfield card with most of the attention on the Winter Derby and to a lesser extent the Hever Stakes over the minimum trip.Although they will be interesting to watch my money today is invested on ASADJUMEIRAH in the Betway Handicap.The selection being advanced for your consideration was a very late foal and I find it surprising that as a juvenile saw the track four times winning on his final outing in a Bath novice event recording quite credible numbers.This colt’s 3yo season was somewhat of a disappointment winning once from from five turf runs and not showing any progress.Went through the sales ring in Oct and was purchased for £10,000 before being passed on privately to present connections and handler in the dying days of 2021.Since switching stables the selection has been successful on his last two outings the last being particularly noteworthy when registering numbers above anything previously achieved winning ‘comfortably’ says the RP,personally I didn’t think that did the colt justice as he came away from his rivals without being touched with the stick and won as he liked.That’s the good points now I do however have a reservation about the course as both recent win have been on a straight track at Newcastle today will be on polytrack and more especially around a bend,but it’s a risk worth taking in my book.The move seems to have revitalized him and there looks more to come from this colt especially on a synthetic surface.
The Winter Derby looks a one horse race with Lord North a very worthy favourite with the only real question around the long absence.This aside the horse in the line up but now sadly withdrawn who I would have liked to compare was King of the South who got caught out of his ground last time in a slow run affair.Prevoius to this had been showing progressive form and was destined for better things.
Another to watch for the future,had hoped he would be kept for the valuable sprint handicap at the Dunstall Park meeting mentioned earlier.runs in the preceding Listed Hever Stakes is the interesting gelding Strong Power.His case rests on a performance in Jan when from over a stone out of the handicap proper he surged past some useful horses mowing them down like they were standing still.Worth keeping an eye on whatever happens today.
good luck to allLast week I wrote of my hopes for STRONG POWER and why I believed there was more to come from this gelding but connections seem hell bent on striking while the iron is hot while personally I would have gone to Dunstall Park next week and then to the A/W Championship sprint where I now think the step up in trip won’t be a problem.
However today he again encounters his conqueror in the shape of One Night Stand where rather amusingly last weeks jockey,Hollie Doyle,is now aboard the selection with an apprentice taking over on One Night Stand.The pace of this race I’m expecting to be quite frenetic with the selection berthed in stall two with Recon Mission on his inside who’s likely to go off at pace to take advantage of the draw so can see SP easily able to slip in behind the leaders before swooping late.
good luck to allTwo selections to put forward for your consideration which will be dealt with in chronological order with the first up being in the opening event at Dunstall Park which I shall be attending today.While ABOVE e/w has been drifting in the betting the fav at the time of writing has never actually been successful on a synthetic surface and to my eyes has never achieved numbers suggesting he’s up to the task.To my mind this gelding’s much better on the a/w and has run well on both previous appearances at this venue.However the numbers he’s being backed on here were from Chelmsford when registering a career high taking the race from the front but he’s versatile and doesn’t have to be ridden this way as I believe today’s draw will see him taking a lead.The second horse I have for you to consider runs over at Lingfield and his case is very straightforward.While 3/11 as a lifetime record isn’t bad when dissecting the record of TADREEB and looking closer one will notice all this colts wins have been at 7f while over further it’s just no comparison.With the recent stable switch having positive effects both runs for new connections,who paid 60,0000 gns last Oct,regestering successive career highs looks ready to strike again.
good luck to allThought it was about time for me to update on the overall performance of this tread from it’s inception.
The figures quoted are for a £1 win bet on all horses put forward for readers to consider as a bet with returns @ SP.
stakes £159 ……. returns £142.01
I would point out that the selections would in many cases be available at bigger prices when reviewed here.
With Cheltenham the big occasion this coming week I try to find a bet or two for the Festival but as I tend to concentrate on hurdlers the options are limited and usually much better contested than the chases.
good luck to allMust admit I have a soft spot for the mare BURNING VICTORY e/w so if any reader thinks it’s influencing my choice I would suggest you to duck out now.After winning the 2020 Triumph Hurdle for me,ante post 20/1 sp 12/1,things haven’t panned out as I expected because I believe there’s still a lot of untapped potential.Not really surprising when next seen over a year later at Punchestown she was given a sympathetic ride never being put into the race,one to throw out.Successful over in France on two of her next three outings then went down narrowly to Buzz in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket.Two races over 24f followed which quite frankly looked beyond her before last time out an all the way win sets her up nicely for todays race.Personally I think she’s overpriced and will outrun her odds with at least a place.
good luck to allMust admit to a certain amount of disappointment at the run of Burning Victory on Tuesday as I did expect a whole lot more,perhaps a return to 16f or there about?
The opening contest on the final day is today’s target race and no surprise to see Irish trained entrants dominating toward the top of the betting.However in this race I’ve found trends to be a good way to go with my eye always on a bit of value.So with this in mind the unbeaten Dan Skelton DR PARNASSUS e/w appeals to me at big double digit odds,some bookies offering four rather than three places,with this gelding ticking the right boxes to feature in my opinion.The geldings principal claims rest on his debut run when treating his experienced rivals with disdain and putting up a good display coming well clear without being touched with the stick in what looked a decent time for the conditions.Took on older horses in a Taunton novice last month and dispatched them with ease in a slowly run affair in what I can only see as a tune up for todays event.Whatever happens can see this selection having a future .
good luck to all
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.