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Greeting to all,
Today putting forward a horse that’s drifted since betting opened last night and still seems to be friendless in the markets.Well I’ve said thank you very much and taken a price (BOG) about JAN VAN HOOF at Southwell today.Why the drift?,I can’t really explain it except perhaps it’s down to the geldings debut on this surface.Although the selection is into the veteran stage as regard age he hasn’t many miles on the clock as his career is littered with periods of inactivity.Kept to the minimum trip since his latest return from a break this step up to 6f will be of no concern nor will be a 6lb rise in the handicap as he’s run well over further and won off a higher mark this time last year.His latest visit to the track was a most impressive display coming from next to last and cruising past the opposition without being touched with the whip.Find it hard to believe JVF will not be the shake up and gain at least a place.
All the research I carried out while at RaceCaller has paid off with some quite spectacular wins in some of the toughest handicaps in the calendar but what it also showed was that it could be applied to all distances.For a couple of years I’ve toyed with the idea ‘could I make it work for just my local track’?
Perhaps I should point out at this juncture I’ve expanded to a newly researched selection process which also takes in lower grade sprint handicaps and runs in parallel to my original method.
The original data collection concerned only class 3 races and above,where form is the most reliable,and tracked the horses meeting the required value in their next race…logging the results I found handicaps to be the most profitable and best way to go as condition races can’t be relied on to be run at a true pace.The conclusions reached pointed to it being a viable selection method although I discovered one doesn’t automatically take all the numbers at face value and a look behind the scenes is called for so not always will the horse that registered the highest numbers last time out will be the selection in a particular contest.
Have started looking at same races run at Dunstall Park (class 3 and above) to compile a new data base on results from this track alone and as the number of meetings is limited I’m unsure whether enough reliable data can be amassed to come to any firm conclusions.Only time will tell but I’m hopeful.
good luck to allNot an easy thing to do …..admit to an error,but I believe that’s what I made in deciding to expand my betting beyond the class 3 events & above in the sprint division I’ve specialized in the last few years.Although the expansion to the lower grades provided a fair share of winners the overall return on money invested was disappointing.This being because many were well punted from already short prices and bookies not allowing any leeway that could provide a worthwhile return,so as from today I shall be dropping this part of my punting which will I’m sorry to say until the new turf season kicks off reduce the number of horses put forward for consideration.
As long as my calculations are correct to date I’ve posted 25 horses….to a £1 bet @ SP (winners only) making £35.62 profit.
(I’m sure someone will tell me if I got that wrong …lol)
However I intend to continue with my latest venture using races from my local track over all distances class 3 & above when they qualify.To date this has produced two bets and two winners. SP’s 9/4 & 6/1
Also will continue to look for new ways to make profitable investments on the sport we all love.
good luck to allNot for the first time Stuart Williams has set a puzzle by entering more than one runner in a race.While most support has been for his senior stablemate my money is going on STREET PARADE to record his first win in almost a year.As an April foal it’s surprising he did so well as a juvenile however having five races in two and a half months probably told in the end with the gelding not showing up well in the final contests.Bounced back on 3yo campaign seasonal debut but overall disappointing,aimed at some valuable races.Perhaps it’s interesting to note all his best efforts came in contests with similar prize money to tonight,10k-13k.A class issue with him being aimed too high?Both of his a/w outings to date have been at Chelmsford and makes his tapeta debut tonight but they were spread over four months with wind surgery inbetween.The first wasn’t bad at all off top weight btn by Furious who looks an a/w specialist.The most recent at the turn of the year the selection was ridden patiently and never put under any real pressure as the leaders had flown.However what he did do was produce numbers suggesting better things to come.
good luck to allWith storm Dennis lashing the country wasn’t at all confident that racing would be on but Kempton has survived and goes ahead.I know I’ve said previously that I only go for the higher class races which in general is perfectly accurate because that’s where my par values,to qualify for consideration as an investment,are usually registered.However there are a few occasions when a horse can meet the standard outside my typical hunting ground.Today is such an occasion with WILEY POST putting up career high numbers when successful at this venue about a month ago.A relative latecomer to a/w racing only debuting in late October ’19 where he ran respectably but without troubling the principals.The experience wasn’t lost on the gelding running much better next time at Lingfield after a month off and maybe being given too much to do having being held up in rear.Reappeared after almost two months off and ridden more prominently decisively put his rivals to the sword last month and although was having his lead cut back in the final furlong never looked in any danger or coming under serious pressure.This will probably be his most severe test on the a/w to date with rivals on falling marks being eligible after contesting higher grade races,the selection is also running off his highest ever handicap,so because of this have played e/w @ 11/2 last night.
good luck to allSincere condolences to all connected to Kachy a brilliant horse I took to from the first time I saw him run.
A sad loss to racing and all who loved racing.With Cheltenham very much on the horizon to me means not only the feast of the festival itself but the arrival of the Racing Bible and a return of flat racing to the turf,Until then there’s also Aintree and the climax to Meydam to look forward to with the a/w finals day added to the mix.It’s with this in mind that I go to Lingfield for a small bet this afternoon on Hareem Queen.While some of the interest has been taken away by the late defection of the overnight favourite it’ still remains an intriguing contest with more than one of today’s runners liable to turn up on finals day.Installed as new fav was Furious but without the necessary numbers to back up her form & a 154 day absence I prefer to watch rather than invest.Some may say the selection I’m putting forward for consideration is a Southwell fibresand specialist and although it’s true most of her racing as been at that course however there are also good runs to point to at Newcastle,even a run at Doncaster on turf,so at this point the evidence isn’t by any means conclusive.This being her polytrack debut doesn’t particularly concern me as this type of surface is widely used at training centre’s with some trainers having individual ones at the stables and thus available to all.This engaging filly since her initial runs over 6f & 7f during March/April last year was off the track until losing the maiden tag in quite taking fashion in Oct.Since then two more wins have followed with a placing in by far the toughest race she’s contested at Newcastle,behind Good Effort & Royal Birth following a two month break.However what appeals to me is the consistent way her numbers have improved since being dropped to the minimum trip.I will be very disappointed if she fails to at least hit the frame.
good luck to allTelevision pundits on ITV make me laugh.So full of themselves and their opinions.Ran Hareem Queen down as they,as I did, point to most of her form being at Southwell.However I also pointed to runs at other tracks and why I was prepared to take what I considered was a reasonable risk on her performing on polytrack too.How their attitude changed as she blitzed her rivals in the straight and suddenly …what a wonderful filly she was!
My feelings on many of the ‘presenters’ on ITV racing coverage is quite simple …GET RID OF THEM!
While AP McCoy was a great rider as a commentator …..sorry Sir…your efforts leave much to be desired.
Luke Harvey & Fitzgerald …both a waste of time.
The main honcho Ed Chamberlin looks totally lost as to regard what racing is about.
While on screen John McCririck sometimes referred to the betting ring as ‘the village’ and for me his replacement Matt Chapman is ‘the village idiot’.
By far the best person there is Francesca Cumani ….know’s what she’s talking about and how to get it over without being patronizing.
I have mentioned only a few of the many they seem to have to hand and as above I would not only question the presenting skills but why do they need so many?
Today I’m undertaking another ‘risk’ once again with STREET PARADE as regard him getting 6f.Two attempts at the trip last July both ended with the gelding being well beaten and although not encouraging I should point to the fact that it started the period when his trainer aimed the horse quite high compared to the value of the races contested previously.Since returning to a level that seems to more inline with capabilities the selection has run consistently so I’m playing a small investment.
good luck to allDon’t think any answers were provided as regard Street Parade staying 6f.
Pulled hard for the first couple of furlongs and not making much of an impression at the end.
Was the final result because he fought his jockey or just didn’t stay?
While this state of affairs remains with questions unanswered don’t believe in all honestly I can advise an investment on him again beyond the minimum trip.
good luck to allSorry but today’s posting will be short and brief.
Had an early appointment at hospital and due to drops my vision at the moment is slightly blurred so please excuse any errors I may not notice.
With cards decimated luckily Lingfield where TOP BREEZE makes his 2020 bow is still on and fancy him to put up a good showing.
good luck to allThis has been a really good read BCK, keep it up, and I will try to contribute in the coming weeks.
Thank you for you posting Kris & look forward to hearing more from you in the future.
From memory I recall the horse of the name being a fine miler trained by the legendary Sir Henry.
This was also a time for me when another exceptional horse had his reputation tainted by circumstances and never,in my opinion,got to show his true worth nor received the accolades deserved.Nureyev is the horse in question who was disqualified after hitting the post first in the 2000 Guineas.Although it’s hard to argue he hadn’t transgressed the rules as they stood at the time I believe he was quite simply the best miler around at the time but never raced again.
good luck to allPerhaps I should point out the above horses Kris & Nureyev raced during the late 70’s which gives an indication of how long I’ve followed this sport.
At a rather tender age I hit on the idea of using numbers (against the clock) to gauge the value of performances and started my own system but other things & work soon became a priority and with the time I had available fell back to using collateral form lines.This I used for many years to various degrees of success until I discovered Fineform purchasing the original & follow up books.Some here may recall those books which I think,as with me,showed punters that you only get the rewards out of the sport if you are prepared to put in the time & effort.Sadly no more with us the writer Clive Holt has passed on but left a legacy behind that will ensure his name lives on in the racing world.While using his ‘formula’ I enjoyed many years of fruitful betting but always had the nagging urge to return to my ‘roots’ …the numbers game.
I joined RaceCaller if memory serves me correct in February 2011 starting the original thread of this name the following January and during the next couple of years compiled my data and set about finding a consistent (profitable) way to employ the information collected.Although I found that it could be used for all trips and ground even if it differed from the ground on which the rating was earned provided the horse acted on the prevailing going.
Tried & tested over time it was refined into what I use today,while my choice to confine myself to sprints is purely personal as to me such races are the ones most likely to be run at a true pace.The pace angle also led to me favour handicaps to conditions or group contests where I find the same cannot be guaranteed.The final twist I employed was to create a standard for horses to meet in order to be considered as potential investments and then examined them using what I had picked up from Clive Holt’s books.This specialization I’ve found to bear fruit as I’ve had some tremendous results in some of the biggest & most hotly contested handicaps during the season.
Enough of the history behind my endeavours now for the business in hand.Putting forward for your consideration CORVAIR,who runs in the penultimate contest on today’s Lingfield card.This colt was given a break after three relatively quick runs toward the end of last year and on handicap debut produced his best numbers to date.A 2lb rise in his mark seems fair and although rivals can boast form in higher grade races none have the numbers to match.Although the selection is dropping down in trip I don’t expect this to be a problem and with a good draw I believe a bold showing is on the cards.
good luck to allJust as an update …all horses put forward here to £1 stake.
(but only counting winners as some were advised as e/w prospects)
total stakes £31 …..returns £48.65
the above returns are to SPSeems with Sandown being washed away the spotlight falls on my local track,Dunstall Park.
Not a bad course despite it being down the pecking order as regards ‘class’ it’s a superb little track with good facilities excellent parking,no muddy fields,a hotel on site for overnight stays with food & drink available.
Now with the ‘promotion’ over down to the serious business on their high profile day of the year.Hate the way the card’s set out though with all the best racing coming early to suit the tv boys!
Although my main bet will come in the second race on the card the 6f sprint for the benefit of those that wish to read I shall also include my thoughts on the Lincoln Trial & the Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes on which I won’t bore you with it’s history and name as I’m sure the tv pundits will want to impress you.
So first let me deal with the present favourite Embour ridden by a returning Ryan Moore,which I’m pretty sure has knocked a point or two off his price.After returning from a break this gelding has never been placed but I must say previous absences were of a much longer duration.While winning off a mark of 92 has never won off higher although came close last summer at Goodwood.Stable not exactly firing on all cylinders having two placed in the last fortnight from 9 runners.Not entirely sure who will put the pace to this race but suspect Desert Doctor will go forward to try to negate not the best of draws in this reduced field.Concierge will have his supporters and won in pleasing fashion last time but has never produced the numbers I look for which leaves me doubtful whether he’s capable of following up in this stronger contest.Wasntexpectingthat flatters to deceive and this is probably simply too tough an assignment,which brings me to TREACHEROUS e/w who has posted career high numbers in each of his last two outings,8 wins from 24 starts is good but if one considers only runs over 6f it becomes 6/12 and 5/9 on the a/w.It would be remiss of me not to point out that Embour does hold a verdict over the selection from April ’19 (selections only attempt at this grade).However it was the start of a poor period for the gelding and I’m prepared to give him a chance of at least hitting the frame.
Starting off affairs we have the Lincoln Trial handicap for which Fox Power is a red hot favourite due to in the main the weight turnaround with Via Serendipity.Fox’s handicap form is fairly thin on the ground and although his numbers for his last race were fair it was a conditions event which are a different kettle of fish to todays contest.By far on the numbers Goring comes out top but has never won with a triple digit rating,however he did register his third best set of figures when successful LTO,it should also be pointed out that this gelding seems to be a Lingfield specialist.Serendipity would need to return to the form of his last handicap win off just 1lb lower in Oct ’19 but recent runs to me suggest he’s being saved.The only other I would mention in this trial is Rathbone who’s had two recent encouraging runs on the a/w who try’s todays trip for the first time although stable form may be suspect but very little to go on of late.
Hannon & Moore team up for the feature event with Urban Icon who makes his a/w debut and seems to being supported after drifting in the betting market.Thought good enough to take his chance in last years Guineas hasn’t gone on since and for me leaves a little to be desired.I think that last comment can be applied to others here so making a case for any is tricky if not impossible.Habub has had two recent runs which I think you can consider neither to have been ideal first over 6f,never really going to get involved in this speed contest and then attempting to give weight all round 5lb to second top and 10lb+ to the rest was only beaten a little over two lengths registering some of his best numbers to date and perhaps is an e/w chance.
Well probably confused you as much as helped,hope you enjoyed reading my thoughts.
good luck to allIt’s not often I subscribe to a horse being ‘unlucky’ but for Treacherous I think the label is hard to deny.Hampered,blocked,denied a clear run all could be used to describe his passage last weekend.Unfortunately this will also have not gone unnoticed by the bookmakers who will be very much on their guard for his next appearance.
With recent events Cheltenham has been very much in the balance and looks to have got away before more severe measures are possibly brought into force.While my main focus is the flat I do like to put forward a selection or two for consideration at the Festival & Aintree if I believe something suitable can be identified.In 2019 my sole selection was Pentland Hills and it’s back to the Triumph for this year where I’ve invested e/w @ 20/1 on the Willie Mullins BURNING VICTORY (bet made on Wednesday evening).For this race I like a horse that’s not run in the early part of the season in fact not run before new year with the selection fitting the bill and making a good stable debut at Fairyhouse after being purchased from France and a near 9 month absence.The form of her success doesn’t have depth due to the rivals immediately behind are relative new to the hurdling game,however doing everything wrong and still winning for me marked the selection out as smart.One may have concerns about the drying conditions as most of her form is on soft/heavy ground with the only attempt on anything better being in a Group 3 contest in France last summer which may have been a step too far as a May foal.So I’m prepared to allow the trainer to make the decision whether she takes her chance on the ground.
During my RaceCaller days I posted a piece concerning the intellectual capacity of the Labour front bench writing thus ……….
Four tables set out for an IQ test ……after completion the results were announced
1st the primate
2nd two wooden planks
the examiner then pointed out that Emily Thornberry & Diane Abbott were equal last as no sign of intelligence could be found in either.
Just when you thought none dimmer were around up pops shadow environmental minister Kerry McCarthy who during a meeting of the Agriculture Bill Committee stated ‘grouse are imported into this country in their millions just so they can be shot by people on an away day’
*grouse are native to uk & killed mostly for consumption*
Somebody pass the ‘sick bucket’…..god help us all if these people ever gain power!
good luck to allWhile one can feel for connections of Goshen as they say the hurdles are there to be jumped.
With the outlook uncertain and in all probably racing will take place behind closed doors if at all I guess one must take what chance there is while the opportunity presents itself.So although such a race isn’t my usual hunting ground the 3 runner conditions event taking place at Dunstall Park this evening looks,to me,to afford PUDS a chance to nab a decent pot against a limited number of rivals.Taking the runners in racecard order ……
Watchable ……very much the veteran of the party,who to be fair has had a good time of it this winter being successful on three occasions and I believe the recent verdict he holds over the selection will be reversed.Has been held up in a prominent position in recent contests but tonight think connections will try to make all from stall one.
Moss Gill ….. improved his handicap mark almost two stone last year from 74 to 98 and then came to a shuddering halt at Catterick where as a well backed favourite trainers rep blamed the ground which was described as soft ,exactly the same as his previous run …..reason for poor run or excuse?.Most likely will prove to be the best of these over the long term but off a break and the trainer being 0/16 this year with only three placed doesn’t look good to me.Has two fair runs on the a/w.Much of the geldings reputation rests on runs at York which to me is very much a specialist course that all horses don’t take to and with usual hold up tactics may be forced wide and be disadvantaged as regard track position.
Puds ….. registered some good numbers last time on return from over 3 months off which didn’t particularly surprise me as I consider she’s a better mare on the a/w than turf.Also has some excellent turf form but for me will always show up better on an synthetic surfaces.Versatile as regard tactics from the two stall last time tried to make all only being swallowed up well inside the final furlong in a Listed race won by Hareem Queen who I rate.If Watchable wants to lead I can see her sitting just off the pace and swooping past to win.The Richard Hughes stable is in fine form 13/39 for 2020 so far and 4/7 in the last fortnight.Well that’s the theory!
good luck to allSeems the ‘theory’ went out of the window yesterday …still can’t win them all.
With sport in almost a daily flux wouldn’t be surprised if they aimed Moss Gill at the Lingfield Finals Day in the hope that racing’s still allowed to continue as long term one just can’t be sure.
Update
Counting winners only to £1 stake @ SP
total stakes £34 ……returns £61.65
good luck to all
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